PyTorchKR Papers

최신 논문

총 55편
태그·기간 등 상세 필터

카테고리 탐색

arXiv:2611.13369v1cs.GT

Enforcing Axioms for AI Alignment under Loss-Based Rules

Many alignment methods, most notably reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), train reward models by minimizing a loss on pairwise comparisons of model responses. Inspired by principle-guided methods such as Constitutional AI, we treat each principle as a voter that compares responses according to that principle, for example, preferring the more helpful or less toxic response. We represent these voters as linear directions in a fixed embedding space, a simplifying assumption motivated by the Linear Representation Hypothesis. In this linear social choice model, Ge et al. (2024) showed that an optimal linear reward model can violate Pareto optimality (PO): From the principles-as-voters lens, this means a response A can be less helpful and more toxic than B, yet still receive a higher reward. We ask whether richer reward models or changes to comparison data can recover PO within loss-based training. We show that PO can still fail for polynomials of any fixed degree and one-hidden-layer ReLU multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) of any fixed width $ d\ge 2 $ with suitable finite parameter bounds. We then recover PO for loss-based training of linear rewards under suitable assumptions in an idealized setting with uniform comparison directions and equal comparison lengths. These results motivate dataset design as an approach to recovering PO in constitutional-style alignment while retaining loss-based training.

arXiv:2611.13062v1cs.AI

Elicitation of the parameters of a multi-criteria sorting model

Multiple-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) proposes models and methods for different types of decision problems such as choice, ranking or sorting. Such models involve various parameters that must be elicited. In the elicitation process, all necessary information has to be taken from the decision-maker. For this, several direct and indirect elicitation methods are suggested in the literature. In this work, we concentrate on direct elicitation: we aim at providing a rigorous elicitation procedure for the parameters of the Non-Compensatory Sorting model (NCS), which has been characterized by an axiomatic analysis. A basic version of the NCS model is considered, i.e., a model with two categories and no vetoes. The parameters are the set of sufficient coalitions of criteria and the profile separating the two categories. Regarding the sufficient coalitions, we propose several questioning algorithms that engraft questions on classical graph exploration algorithms such as depth-first search. Such algorithms are implemented and evaluated by simulation. For eliciting the limit profile, we design a questioning algorithm using dichotomy. Questioning algorithms can be optimal in the worst case or on average. An optimal algorithm in the worst case has been proposed by Hansel in the framework of monotone Boolean functions. We implement and evaluate this algorithm as a variant of the depth-first search approaches. Regarding optimal questioning strategies on average, we evaluate decision trees for up to four criteria. On the other hand, we assess how more general is NCS as compared to MR-Sort, a particular case of the NCS model in which sufficient coalitions can be represented by additive weights.

arXiv:2602.12253v2cs.GT

Is Online Linear Optimization Sufficient for Strategic Robustness?

We consider bidding in repeated Bayesian first-price auctions. Bidding algorithms that achieve optimal regret have been extensively studied, but their strategic robustness to the seller's manipulation remains relatively underexplored. Bidding algorithms based on no-swap-regret algorithms achieve both desirable properties, but are suboptimal in terms of statistical and computational efficiency. In contrast, online gradient ascent is the only algorithm that achieves $O(\sqrt{TK})$ regret and strategic robustness [KSS24], where $T$ denotes the number of auctions and $K$ the number of bids. In this paper, we explore whether simple online linear optimization (OLO) algorithms suffice for bidding algorithms with both desirable properties. Our main result shows that sublinear linearized regret is sufficient for strategic robustness. Specifically, we construct simple black-box reductions that convert any OLO algorithm into a strategically robust no-regret bidding algorithm, in both known and unknown value distribution settings. For the known value distribution case, our reduction yields a bidding algorithm that achieves $O(\sqrt{T \log K})$ regret and strategic robustness (with exponential improvement on the $K$-dependence compared to [KSS24]). Moreover, we can further exploit the single-strategy benchmark and construct a bidding algorithm with $O(\sqrt{T(\log K+\log T)})$ regret and $O(1)$ strategic robustness. For the unknown value distribution case, our reduction gives a bidding algorithm with high-probability $O(\sqrt{T (\log K+\log(T/\delta)})$ regret and strategic robustness, while removing the bounded density assumption made in [KSS24].

arXiv:2407.04898v3cs.GT

Nash Incentive-compatible Online Mechanism Learning via Weakly Differentially Private Online Learning

We study a multi-round mechanism design problem, where we interact with a set of agents over a sequence of rounds. We wish to design an incentive-compatible (IC) online learning scheme to maximize an application-specific objective within a given class of mechanisms, without prior knowledge of the agents' type distributions. Even if each mechanism in this class is IC in a single round, if an algorithm naively chooses from this class on each round, the entire learning process may not be IC against non-myopic buyers who appear over multiple rounds. On each round, our method randomly chooses between the recommendation of a weakly differentially private online learning algorithm (e.g., Hedge), and a commitment mechanism which penalizes non-truthful behavior. Our method is IC and achieves $O(T^{\frac{1+h}{2}})$ regret for the application-specific objective in an adversarial setting, where $h$ quantifies the long-sightedness of the agents. When compared to prior work, our approach is conceptually simpler,it applies to general mechanism design problems (beyond auctions), and its regret scales gracefully with the size of the mechanism class.

arXiv:2403.01361v3cs.LG

Bandit Profit-maximization for Targeted Marketing

We study a sequential profit-maximization problem, optimizing for both price and ancillary variables like marketing expenditures. Specifically, we aim to maximize profit over an arbitrary sequence of multiple demand curves, each dependent on a distinct ancillary variable, but sharing the same price. A prototypical example is targeted marketing, where a firm (seller) wishes to sell a product over multiple markets. The firm may invest different marketing expenditures for different markets to optimize customer acquisition, but must maintain the same price across all markets. Moreover, markets may have heterogeneous demand curves, each responding to prices and marketing expenditures differently. The firm's objective is to maximize its gross profit, the total revenue minus marketing costs. Our results are near-optimal algorithms for this class of problems in an adversarial bandit setting, where demand curves are arbitrary non-adaptive sequences, and the firm observes only noisy evaluations of chosen points on the demand curves. For $n$ demand curves (markets), we prove a regret upper bound of $\tilde{O}(nT^{3/4})$ and a lower bound of $\Omega((nT)^{3/4})$ for monotonic demand curves, and a regret bound of $\tilde{\Theta}(nT^{2/3})$ for demand curves that are monotonic in price and concave in the ancillary variables.

arXiv:2611.11877v1cs.LG

Tropical Gaussian Anticoncentration: Optimal Instance-Dependent Bounds for Online Learning in Extensive-Form Games

We study the minimax regret of full-information online decision making in extensive-form games. For prediction with expert advice, the optimal regret is $\Theta(\sqrt{T\log K})$, where $K$ is the number of experts, or equivalently, the number of normal-form actions. For treeplex strategy spaces, existing efficient algorithms, including KOMWU and online mirror descent with the weight-one dilated entropy regularizer, achieve regret $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T\log|\mathcal{V}|})$, where $\mathcal{V}$ is the set of reduced normal-form strategies. We prove that this logarithmic dependence is minimax optimal in the worst-case full-information reward model. The main difficulty is that pure plans in a treeplex are not independent experts: their rewards are correlated through the recursive structure of decisions and observations. To capture this correlation, we introduce tropical Gaussian formulae, recursive Gaussian expressions built from maxima and normalized sums which preserve the variance. The index count of such a formula matches the number of reduced normal-form continuation plans in the corresponding subtree. Our main analytic result shows that every log-balanced tropical Gaussian formula with index count $N$ has Gaussian width $\Omega(\sqrt{\log N})$. While a direct approach struggles to recover this lower bound, our proof uses a spherical entropy profile to measure scale-dependent separation among the Gaussian directions, and then applies Tur\'an's theorem and Sudakov minoration to obtain the width lower bound. Applying this result to treeplexes gives an oblivious hard distribution with valid transition outcome and Rademacher terminal rewards, establishing a regret lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{T\log|\mathcal{V}|})$. This matches known upper bounds up to universal constants and shows that the DilEnt/KOMWU dependence on the reduced normal-form complexity is unavoidable.

arXiv:2611.11714v1cs.MA

Steering Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent LLM Systems via Information Networks

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly operate in groups, each pursuing an individual objective while jointly determining system performance. If an operator controls which agent observes which other agent, but not their payoffs or messages, how should observations be structured to raise collective welfare? We make the information network (who observes whom) a design object, decoupled from the fixed interaction network over which agents act. Ten identical LLM agents play repeated group-decision games; by default each observes only an anonymous summary of the group's previous-round outcome, and a manager with a fixed budget adds directed observation links that reveal peers' past actions. Across 1,080 episodes and six games spanning coordination, anti-coordination, social dilemmas, and discovery, we ask how much information to share and, at a fixed budget, who should observe whom. Disclosure creates behavioral coupling: observation acts as a contagion channel whose welfare effect depends on the alignment between individually attractive behavior and the collective objective. First, the value of information is alignment-contingent: more peer information tends to help or be neutral when individual behavior is aligned with the collective goal, but under free-riding or congestion externalities it amplifies collectively harmful behavior; in a public-goods game the group does best with no information at all. We read this sign separation as a cross-game regularity within one controlled LLM population, not a model-invariant law. Second, at a fixed budget, who observes whom matters primarily when coupling is harmful: a modular "barbell" that lets sub-populations entrench harmful behavior is reliably the worst wiring, reversing the network-reciprocity intuition from human evolutionary game theory. These results argue against a default of full transparency for agent collectives.

arXiv:2611.11693v1cs.GT

Homological Barriers to Stable Learning of First-Order Nash Equilibria

We identify a homological barrier to stable learning of local Nash equilibria, also known as first-order Nash equilibria (FONE), in constrained non-concave differentiable games. We consider continuous deterministic learning dynamics that fix every FONE point and aim to attract all initial conditions to the full FONE set. We show that this convergence guarantee is impossible when the target set has nontrivial positive-degree cohomology, such as that arising from a loop, and the state space is compact and contractible. We exhibit this barrier in a simple non-concave quadratic zero-sum game on a box whose exact FONE set consists of a diagonal six-edge loop and an isolated point. Consequently, no such dynamics can make the full FONE set a stable global attractor. We further show that degree two is the minimal polynomial degree at which this barrier can arise and extend the construction to obtain nontrivial homology in arbitrarily high degrees. Finally, we establish that the barrier persists for sufficiently small approximate-FONE targets under small perturbations, yielding an open, positive-volume family of quadratic zero-sum games with the same homological barrier.

arXiv:2611.11032v1cs.LG

Finite-Sample and Communication-Efficient Networked Information Aggregation

Building on SODA 2026 work Kearns et al. (2026), we study learning in directed acyclic graphs in which each agent observes only a subset of the input coordinates and may use the predictions of its parents as additional features. In the finite-sample protocol, the message sent along each edge is the agent's prediction vector on a shared sample, so the communication cost is linear in the sample size $m$. In this paper we study this model under communication constraints. First, we revisit the finite-sample analysis of the full-message protocol. We identify a gap in the finite-sample proof of Kearns et al. (2026) and develop a different argument that establishes a finite-sample population-risk guarantee along paths satisfying deterministic $M$-coverage. Second, we introduce a shared-sketch protocol in which each agent sends a $k$-dimensional linear sketch of its prediction vector instead of the full $m$-dimensional message, where $k\ll m$. We analyze this protocol through a reduction to least squares on the compressed sample together with an oblivious subspace embedding argument. The resulting bound separates statistics from communication: the statistical term is still governed by the original sample size $m$, while the additional error due to compression is controlled by the sketch dimension $k$. For Gaussian sketches, we obtain an explicit high-probability population-risk bound, showing that row subsampling is not the only possible communication-statistics tradeoff for networked information aggregation.

arXiv:2611.10690v1cs.CV

JoVox: Joint Hierarchical Flow Matching for Lightweight Voxel Generation

Generating high-fidelity voxels while keeping their lightweight nature remains an open problem in computer vision. Current generators are either high-fidelity but computationally heavy, or lightweight but of lower fidelity. Hierarchical methods keep the lightweight nature of voxels. However, their coarse levels, which decide where all finer cells can appear, are generated with the least information about the shape and are never revisited, so they are often plausible but wrong. Our key insight is to let finer cells take part in deciding coarse cells. To this end, we propose JoVox, a discrete flow matching framework that learns the joint distribution of all levels of the voxel hierarchy, instead of a separate distribution for each level, so that coarse cells can be predicted with finer cells already generated nearby. Within this framework, we further introduce a two-level prediction, which outputs the cells two levels finer at once instead of one level finer, halving the number of levels that the network processes and yielding voxels of higher fidelity. We also introduce an unmasking strategy that revisits early decisions once finer cells are generated and corrects inconsistencies in masked diffusion models. Our framework outperforms the baselines on both unconditional and image-conditioned voxel generation. Compared with the current state-of-the-art TRELLIS.2, we achieve 8x higher training throughput, 1/15 of the FLOPs in a forward pass, train on 4 vs. 32 GPUs, and obtain higher quality with an 11% lower Chamfer distance.

arXiv:2611.10345v1cs.GT

The Power of Two Choices in Dynamic Pricing: As Good As Full Feedback, Instance-Wise

We study the dynamic pricing problem, where a firm sells a product to $T$ myopic customers and their values are independent samples from an unknown value distribution $F$. With posted prices, the firm only sees whether each customer buys, and the minimax regret is $\widetilde \Theta(T^{2/3})$ [KL03]. A menu instead offers several options, each selling the product with some probability at some expected payment. Infinitely many menu options allow the seller to fully reveal customer values, reducing the regret to $\Theta(\sqrt T)$. How many options are needed? Perhaps surprisingly, a second menu option suffices, achieving the same regret as infinite menus (up to $\log$ factors). This holds broadly: without knowing any property of $F$, our algorithm with two menu options attains $\tilde O(\sqrt T)$ regret in general, $\tilde O(T^{1/3})$ regret for monotone-hazard-rate distributions, and $\tilde O(T^{d/(d+1)})$ instance-dependent regret when $d\in(0,1)$ is a suitable notion of "dimension". All are optimal even with infinite menus. Moreover, we argue, via a novel lower-bound construction, that our algorithm is near-optimal for each problem instance. Along the way, we study the query complexity of revenue maximization, where an algorithm issues a query to each customer to learn the property of interest (either the best price or the CDF) up to some precision. We show that interval queries suffice to achieve the same query complexity as value queries (up to $\log$ factors) for both properties and across several classes of value distributions. We provide a new interval-query algorithm for each property. The best-price-estimation algorithm is the key ingredient in our main dynamic pricing algorithm, and the CDF-estimation algorithm underpins a simpler algorithm attaining $\tilde O(\sqrt T)$ regret with three menu options.

arXiv:2611.10261v1cs.AI

Is Recursive Self-Improvement Safe?

The phrase recursive self-improvement (RSI) refers to the idea of an AI system designing and creating another, better AI system, which in turn designs and creates an even better one, and so on. While the idea has a long history, it has always been an abstract, futuristic idea -- until recently. Today's frontier AI has attained a set of abilities, including in programming, mathematics, research, tool use, and working coherently over extended periods of time, that make RSI seem plausible. AI companies are starting to pursue it, but many of the involved people are also expressing concerns, asking whether humanity should really set this in motion and under what conditions. I will discuss the situation, argue that we do not even have clear frameworks for thinking about the likely outcomes of RSI, and do a quick game-theoretic analysis of how to choose whether to initiate RSI when another party is making the same choice.

arXiv:2610.41962v2cs.GT

When Is a Game a Markov Decision Process? Correspondences Between Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning and game theory describe the same object from two sides. Game theory says what a rational outcome of a strategic interaction is; reinforcement learning says how an agent could reach one through experience. The two literatures nevertheless keep separate vocabularies for identical structures, and the treatments that bridge them present the correspondence as analogy rather than theorem. This monograph supplies the theorems. A game is a Markov decision process in three distinct senses, and every table entry is labelled with the one that applies: a definitional identity, an exact reduction carried by a value- and solution-preserving map, or a structural analogy that fails under identifiable conditions. We take every standard class of game, from normal-form through repeated, stochastic, partially observable, extensive-form with imperfect information, Bayesian, graphical, Stackelberg, potential, coalitional, mean-field and evolutionary games, and identify for each the decision-theoretic model that reinforcement learning already studies under another name. The same treatment is applied to solution concepts: Nash equilibrium and the fixed point of the Bellman optimality operator, quantal response equilibrium and the soft Bellman operator, the Shapley value and credit assignment, Blackwell approachability and no-regret learning. We map each model class onto the training procedures sound for it and record the complexity of the associated solution problems. A final part collects the correspondences that do not hold: the non-stationarity that invalidates the independent-learner reduction, the impossibility results that forbid uncoupled convergence to Nash equilibrium, and the gap between the coarse correlated equilibria that no-regret self-play reaches and the correlated equilibria it is credited with.

arXiv:2605.30916v2cs.LG

Welfare, Improvability, and Variance: A Principal-Agent Approach to Optimal Benchmark Item Aggregation

AI benchmarks have well-documented limitations, with prior work examining contamination, saturation, and construct underspecification. Aggregation has received far less attention: benchmarks are typically summarized by uniformly averaging item-level scores, implicitly treating every test item as equally valuable. We model benchmarking as a multitask principal-agent game and show that the welfare loss from a benchmark is determined jointly by three item-level primitives: alignment with normative welfare priorities, marginal improvability, and performance variance. We translate the theory into an audit framework that ranks items along each of these three axes, and apply it to OLMES items using WORKBank for welfare, the EvoLM 4B suite for improvability, and the PolyPythias 410M panel for variance. The framework surfaces items that are Pareto-inferior within OLMES subject to a pro-worker welfare operationalization. All code is available at https://github.com/stair-lab/principal-agent-benchmarks.

arXiv:2605.19235v2cs.LG

GAE Falls Short in Imperfect-Information Self-Play Reinforcement Learning

Competitive multi-agent reinforcement learning in imperfect-information games requires agents to act under partial observability and against adversarial opponents, necessitating stochastic policies. While self-play reinforcement learning with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) has achieved strong empirical success, its standard advantage estimator, generalized advantage estimation, suffers from additional variance due to the sampling of stochastic future actions. This variance is amplified in equilibrium self-play because of the stochastic nature of the equilibrium policy and persists even when the critic is exact. We address this bottleneck by introducing $Q$-boosting, a variance-reduced advantage estimator based on a centralized action-value critic, and propose Variance-Reduced Policy Optimization (VRPO), incorporating this new estimator. The algorithm replaces sampled multi-step backups with a multi-step Expected SARSA$(\lambda)$ trace, computing policy expectations at each step to average out action-sampling noise, while retaining PPO's clipped objective and on-policy actor updates. Empirically, VRPO achieves strong performance in various games: In mid-sized games where exploitability is computable, VRPO lowers the exact exploitability by more than 15% compared to tuned baselines. In Dou Dizhu, it sets a new state of the art over PerfectDou. In Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold'em, it posts a positive win rate against Slumbot without any blueprint raise sizes, search, or subgame solving at test time.

arXiv:2605.06377v3cs.GT

Independent Learning of Nash Equilibria in Partially Observable Markov Potential Games with Decoupled Dynamics

We study Nash equilibrium learning in partially observable Markov games (POMGs), a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in which agents cannot fully observe the underlying state. Prior work in this setting relies on centralization or information sharing, and suffers from sample and computational complexity that scales exponentially in the number of players. We focus on a subclass of POMGs with independent state transitions, where agents remain coupled through their rewards, and assume that the underlying fully observed Markov game is a Markov potential game. For this class, we present an independent learning algorithm in which players, observing only their own actions and observations and without communication, jointly converge to an approximate Nash equilibrium. Due to partial observability, optimal policies may in general depend on the full action-observation history. Under a filter stability assumption, we show that policies based on finite history windows provide sufficient approximation guarantees. This enables us to approximate the POMG by a surrogate Markov game that is near-potential, leading to quasi-polynomial sample and computational complexity for independent Nash equilibrium learning in the underlying POMG.

arXiv:2604.14886v2cs.AI

Cooperate to Compete: Strategic Data Generation and Incentivization Framework for Coopetitive Cross-Silo Federated Learning

In data-sensitive domains such as finance, cross-silo federated learning (CFL) allows organizations to collaboratively train AI models without sharing raw data. However, many practical CFL deployments are coopetitive, where organizations cooperate during model training while competing in downstream markets. In such settings, training contributions can improve the global model yet inadvertently strengthen rivals, eroding one's competitive advantage. This dilemma is amplified by non-IID data, which leads to asymmetric learning gains and undermines sustained participation. While existing work reward organizations based on marginal training contributions, they fail to account for the implicit costs of strengthening competitors. In this paper, we introduce CoCoGen+, a coopetition-compatible data generation and incentivization framework that jointly models data heterogeneity and inter-organizational competition while endogenizing GenAI-based synthetic data generation as a strategic decision. Specifically, CoCoGen+ formulates each training round as a weighted potential game, where organizations strategically decide how much data to generate by balancing learning gains against computational costs and utility losses caused by competition. We establish the existence and uniqueness of the continuous Nash equilibrium under the adopted model and develop a provably convergent scalar bisection algorithm. We further analyze how bilateral payoff redistribution modifies residual competition and data-generation incentives, and empirically evaluate the social welfare and individual utilities of the resulting allocations. Experiments on FMNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 validate the feasibility of CoCoGen+. The results show how heterogeneity, competition intensity, and incentives shape organizational strategies and social welfare, while CoCoGen+ achieves higher social welfare than competition-aware baselines.

arXiv:2509.20919v2cs.GT

Efficient Kernelized Learning in Polyhedral Games Beyond Full-Information: From Colonel Blotto to Congestion Games

We examine the problem of efficiently learning coarse correlated equilibria (CCE) in polyhedral games, that is, normal-form games with an exponentially large number of actions per player and an underlying combinatorial structure. Prominent examples of such games are the classical Colonel Blotto and congestion games. To achieve computational efficiency, the learning algorithms must exhibit regret and per-iteration complexity that scale polylogarithmically in the size of the players' action sets. This challenge has recently been addressed in the full-information setting, primarily through the use of kernelization. However, in the case of the realistic, but mathematically challenging, partial-information setting, existing approaches result in suboptimal and impractical runtime complexity to learn CCE. We tackle this limitation by building a framework based on the kernelization paradigm. We apply this framework to prominent examples of polyhedral games -- namely the Colonel Blotto, graphic matroid and network congestion games -- and provide computationally efficient payoff-based learning algorithms, which significantly improve upon prior works in terms of the runtime for learning CCE in these settings.

arXiv:2611.09399v1econ.TH

Artificial Shoppers and Attention Competition

We study how AI shopping interfaces affect price competition, platform profit, and consumer welfare. A platform hosts two of three products of different quality. Without AI, consumers compare the hosted pair under salience distortion and overweight whichever attribute, price or quality, stands out. Under assistance, an AI assistant recommends the two products with the highest true utility, leaving consumers to make the same distorted comparison. Under delegation, an AI agent selects the best product, subject to purchase approval. Both modes access all products and know consumers' preferences; firms price strategically. First, assistance can soften competition despite expanded product access. The middle-quality firm may forgo low-valuation consumers because attracting them requires cutting the price paid by higher-valuation consumers as well. Relative to no AI with the same assortment, assistance lowers both hosted prices under the high- and low-quality pair but can raise both under the high- and middle-quality pair. Second, we identify an alignment paradox: some consumers can become worse off than without AI even though their best option remains recommended and becomes cheaper. Salience can induce a switch to a lower-quality product whose quality loss exceeds the saving relative to the original purchase. The assistant ranks products accurately but does not optimize the shortlist for consumers' realized welfare. Third, assistance can raise both platform profit and aggregate consumer surplus with the high- and middle-quality pair; delegation can do so with the high- and low-quality pair. Fourth, among AI designs, the platform weakly prefers delegation with the high- and middle-quality pair wherever all compared pricing equilibria exist. Yet this preferred design can yield lower platform profit and aggregate consumer surplus than the no-AI optimum.

arXiv:2607.09993v2cs.GT

Beyond Bayesian Nash: Learning Minimax-Regret Equilibria for Adversarial Team Games under Asymmetric Information

Adversarial team games (ATGs) with asymmetric information, such as adversarial path-finding, goal search, and reachability games on graphs, require strategies that are robust to hidden opponent types, such as a hidden goal flag, and to deception. Under asymmetric information, deception is seen as strategic shifts in the type distribution such that the omniscient opponent can collude with Nature and condition its play on the observed type. Existing risk-neutral solution concepts, such as Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE), are sensitive to distribution shifts, while distributionally robust approaches provide guarantees only within a prescribed ambiguity set. To address these limitations, we introduce Probabilistically Robust Minimax-Regret Equilibrium (PR-MRE), a novel equilibrium concept that combines the distribution-free robustness of minimax-regret reasoning with probabilistic information from a nominal type distribution. PR-MRE minimizes worst-case regret over a high-confidence subset of the type space, providing protection against strategic redistribution of probability mass while avoiding the conservatism of fully distribution-free approaches. We show that, for finite normal-form Bayesian games, approximate PR-MRE computation can be formulated as a robust bilinear program and derive a tractable semidefinite relaxation. We then adapt this relaxation into a novel meta-solver within a robust double-oracle framework, PRMRE-PSRO, enabling population-based learning of approximate PR-MRE strategies via deep reinforcement learning best responses. Experiments on graph-structured adversarial team games demonstrate that PR-MRE discovers strategies with substantially improved worst-case performance across hidden types compared to risk-neutral Bayesian Nash equilibrium solutions, resulting in more robust behavior under strategic distribution shifts.