Estimating population parameters in finite populations of text documents can be challenging when obtaining the labels for the target variable requires manual annotation. To address this problem, we combine predictions from a transformer encoder neural network with well-established survey sampling estimators using the model predictions as an auxiliary variable. The applicability is demonstrated in Swedish hate crime statistics based on Swedish police reports. Estimates of the yearly number of hate crimes and the police's under-reporting are derived using the Hansen-Hurwitz estimator, difference estimation, and stratified random sampling estimation. We conclude that if labeled training data is available, the proposed method can provide very efficient estimates with reduced time spent on manual annotation.
The use of machine-learning techniques has grown in numerous research areas. Currently, it is also widely used in statistics, including the official statistics for data collection (e.g. satellite imagery, web scraping and text mining, data cleaning, integration and imputation) but also for data analysis. However, the usage of these methods in survey sampling including small area estimation is still very limited. Therefore, we propose a predictor supported by these algorithms which can be used to predict any population or subpopulation characteristics based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Machine learning methods have already been shown to be very powerful in identifying and modelling complex and nonlinear relationships between the variables, which means that they have very good properties in case of strong departures from the classic assumptions. Therefore, we analyse the performance of our proposal under a different set-up, in our opinion of greater importance in real-life surveys. We study only small departures from the assumed model, to show that our proposal is a good alternative in this case as well, even in comparison with optimal methods under the model. What is more, we propose the method of the accuracy estimation of machine learning predictors, giving the possibility of the accuracy comparison with classic methods, where the accuracy is measured as in survey sampling practice. The solution of this problem is indicated in the literature as one of the key issues in integration of these approaches. The simulation studies are based on a real, longitudinal dataset, freely available from the Polish Local Data Bank, where the prediction problem of subpopulation characteristics in the last period, with "borrowing strength" from other subpopulations and time periods, is considered.
Modern surveys with large sample sizes and growing mixed-type questionnaires require robust and scalable analysis methods. In this work, we consider recovering a mixed dataframe matrix, obtained by complex survey sampling, with entries following different canonical exponential distributions and subject to heterogeneous missingness. To tackle this challenging task, we propose a two-stage procedure: in the first stage, we model the entry-wise missing mechanism by logistic regression, and in the second stage, we complete the target parameter matrix by maximizing a weighted log-likelihood with a low-rank constraint. We propose a fast and scalable estimation algorithm that achieves sublinear convergence, and the upper bound for the estimation error of the proposed method is rigorously derived. Experimental results support our theoretical claims, and the proposed estimator shows its merits compared to other existing methods. The proposed method is applied to analyze the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data.
As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as outcome variables. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to this so-called ``inference with predicted data'' problem and elucidate three potential sources of error: (i) the relationship between predicted outcomes and their true, unobserved counterparts, (ii) robustness of the machine learning model to resampling or uncertainty about the training data, and (iii) appropriately propagating not just bias but also uncertainty from predictions into the ultimate inference procedure.
In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators that reuse old data introduce large bias such that we can not obtain a valid confidence interval. Inspired from a related field called survey sampling, we introduce a variant of the doubly robust (DR) estimator, called the regression-assisted DR estimator, that can incorporate the past data without introducing a large bias. The estimator unifies several existing off-policy policy evaluation methods and improves on them with the use of auxiliary information and a regression approach. We prove that the new estimator is asymptotically unbiased, and provide a consistent variance estimator to a construct a large sample confidence interval. Finally, we empirically show that the new estimator improves estimation for the current and future policy values, and provides a tight and valid interval estimation in several nonstationary recommendation environments.
Purchase data from retail chains provide proxy measures of private household expenditure on items that are the most troublesome to collect in the traditional expenditure survey. Due to the sheer amount of proxy data, the bias due to coverage and selection errors completely dominates the variance. We develop tests for bias based on audit sampling, which makes use of available survey data that cannot be linked to the proxy data source at the individual level. However, audit sampling fails to yield a meaningful mean squared error estimate, because the sampling variance is too large compared to the bias of the big data estimate. We propose a novel accuracy measure that is applicable in such situations. This can provide a necessary part of the statistical argument for the uptake of big data source, in replacement of traditional survey sampling. An application to disaggregated food price index is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.
This paper is a tutorial and literature review on sampling algorithms. We have two main types of sampling in statistics. The first type is survey sampling which draws samples from a set or population. The second type is sampling from probability distribution where we have a probability density or mass function. In this paper, we cover both types of sampling. First, we review some required background on mean squared error, variance, bias, maximum likelihood estimation, Bernoulli, Binomial, and Hypergeometric distributions, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, and the Markov property. Then, we explain the theory of simple random sampling, bootstrapping, stratified sampling, and cluster sampling. We also briefly introduce multistage sampling, network sampling, and snowball sampling. Afterwards, we switch to sampling from distribution. We explain sampling from cumulative distribution function, Monte Carlo approximation, simple Monte Carlo methods, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. For simple Monte Carlo methods, whose iterations are independent, we cover importance sampling and rejection sampling. For MCMC methods, we cover Metropolis algorithm, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Gibbs sampling, and slice sampling. Then, we explain the random walk behaviour of Monte Carlo methods and more efficient Monte Carlo methods, including Hamiltonian (or hybrid) Monte Carlo, Adler's overrelaxation, and ordered overrelaxation. Finally, we summarize the characteristics, pros, and cons of sampling methods compared to each other. This paper can be useful for different fields of statistics, machine learning, reinforcement learning, and computational physics.
Sampling schemes are fundamental tools in statistics, survey design, and algorithm design. A fundamental result in differential privacy is that a differentially private mechanism run on a simple random sample of a population provides stronger privacy guarantees than the same algorithm run on the entire population. However, in practice, sampling designs are often more complex than the simple, data-independent sampling schemes that are addressed in prior work. In this work, we extend the study of privacy amplification results to more complex, data-dependent sampling schemes. We find that not only do these sampling schemes often fail to amplify privacy, they can actually result in privacy degradation. We analyze the privacy implications of the pervasive cluster sampling and stratified sampling paradigms, as well as provide some insight into the study of more general sampling designs.
Design-consistent model-assisted estimation has become the standard practice in survey sampling. However, a general theory is lacking so far, which allows one to incorporate modern machine-learning techniques that can lead to potentially much more powerful assisting models. We propose a subsampling Rao-Blackwell method, and develop a statistical learning theory for exactly design-unbiased estimation with the help of linear or non-linear prediction models. Our approach makes use of classic ideas from Statistical Science as well as the rapidly growing field of Machine Learning. Provided rich auxiliary information, it can yield considerable efficiency gains over standard linear model-assisted methods, while ensuring valid estimation for the given target population, which is robust against potential mis-specifications of the assisting model at the individual level.
The rapid development of computing power and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithms have revolutionized Bayesian statistics, making it a highly practical inference method in applied work. However, MCMC algorithms tend to be computationally demanding, and are particularly slow for large datasets. Data subsampling has recently been suggested as a way to make MCMC methods scalable on massively large data, utilizing efficient sampling schemes and estimators from the survey sampling literature. These developments tend to be unknown by many survey statisticians who traditionally work with non-Bayesian methods, and rarely use MCMC. Our article explains the idea of data subsampling in MCMC by reviewing one strand of work, Subsampling MCMC, a so called pseudo-marginal MCMC approach to speeding up MCMC through data subsampling. The review is written for a survey statistician without previous knowledge of MCMC methods since our aim is to motivate survey sampling experts to contribute to the growing Subsampling MCMC literature.
In certain situations that shall be undoubtedly more and more common in the Big Data era, the datasets available are so massive that computing statistics over the full sample is hardly feasible, if not unfeasible. A natural approach in this context consists in using survey schemes and substituting the "full data" statistics with their counterparts based on the resulting random samples, of manageable size. It is the main purpose of this paper to investigate the impact of survey sampling with unequal inclusion probabilities on stochastic gradient descent-based M-estimation methods in large-scale statistical and machine-learning problems. Precisely, we prove that, in presence of some a priori information, one may significantly increase asymptotic accuracy when choosing appropriate first order inclusion probabilities, without affecting complexity. These striking results are described here by limit theorems and are also illustrated by numerical experiments.
Web crawling, snowball sampling, and respondent-driven sampling (RDS) are three types of network sampling techniques used to contact individuals in hard-to-reach populations. This paper studies these procedures as a Markov process on the social network that is indexed by a tree. Each node in this tree corresponds to an observation and each edge in the tree corresponds to a referral. Indexing with a tree (instead of a chain) allows for the sampled units to refer multiple future units into the sample. In survey sampling, the design effect characterizes the additional variance induced by a novel sampling strategy. If the design effect is some value $DE$, then constructing an estimator from the novel design makes the variance of the estimator $DE$ times greater than it would be under a simple random sample with the same sample size $n$. Under certain assumptions on the referral tree, the design effect of network sampling has a critical threshold that is a function of the referral rate $m$ and the clustering structure in the social network, represented by the second eigenvalue of the Markov transition matrix, $\lambda_2$. If $m < 1/\lambda_2^2$, then the design effect is finite (i.e. the standard estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent). However, if $m > 1/\lambda_2^2$, then the design effect grows with $n$ (i.e. the standard estimator is no longer $\sqrt{n}$-consistent). Past this critical threshold, the standard error of the estimator converges at the slower rate of $n^{\log_m \lambda_2}$. The Markov model allows for nodes to be resampled; computational results show that the findings hold in without-replacement sampling. To estimate confidence intervals that adapt to the correct level of uncertainty, a novel resampling procedure is proposed. Computational experiments compare this procedure to previous techniques.
We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling literature to estimate the log-likelihood accurately using only a small fraction of the data. Our algorithm improves on the $O(n)$ complexity of regular MCMC by operating over local data clusters instead of the full sample when computing the likelihood. The likelihood estimate is used in a Pseudo-marginal framework to sample from a perturbed posterior which is within $O(m^{-1/2})$ of the true posterior, where $m$ is the subsample size. The method is applied to a logistic regression model to predict firm bankruptcy for a large data set. We document a significant speed up in comparison to the standard MCMC on the full dataset.
With a growing interest in using non-representative samples to train prediction models for numerous outcomes it is necessary to account for the sampling design that gives rise to the data in order to assess the generalized predictive utility of a proposed prediction rule. After learning a prediction rule based on a non-uniform sample, it is of interest to estimate the rule's error rate when applied to unobserved members of the population. Efron (1986) proposed a general class of covariance penalty inflated prediction error estimators that assume the available training data are representative of the target population for which the prediction rule is to be applied. We extend Efron's estimator to the complex sample context by incorporating Horvitz-Thompson sampling weights and show that it is consistent for the true generalization error rate when applied to the underlying superpopulation. The resulting Horvitz-Thompson-Efron (HTE) estimator is equivalent to dAIC, a recent extension of AIC to survey sampling data, but is more widely applicable. The proposed methodology is assessed with simulations and is applied to models predicting renal function obtained from the large-scale NHANES survey.