Causal effect identification using causal graphs is a fundamental challenge in causal inference. While extensive research has been conducted in this area, most existing methods assume the availability of fully specified directed acyclic graphs or acyclic directed mixed graphs. However, in complex domains such as medicine and epidemiology, complete causal knowledge is often unavailable, and only partial information about the system is accessible. This paper focuses on causal effect identification within partially specified causal graphs, with particular emphasis on cluster-directed mixed graphs (C-DMGs) which can represent many different acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs). These graphs provide a higher-level representation of causal relationships by grouping variables into clusters, offering a more practical approach for handling complex systems. Unlike fully specified ADMGs, C-DMGs can contain cycles, which complicate their analysis and interpretation. Furthermore, their cluster-based nature introduces new challenges, as it gives rise to two distinct types of causal effects: macro causal effects and micro causal effects, each with different properties. In this work, we focus on macro causal effects, which describe the effects of entire clusters on other clusters. We establish that the do-calculus is both sound and complete for identifying these effects in C-DMGs over ADMGs when the cluster sizes are either unknown or of size greater than one. Additionally, we provide a graphical characterization of non-identifiability for macro causal effects in these graphs.
Transportation policy assessment often involves causal questions, yet traditional travel behaviour lacks the ability of distinguishing causal association from non-causal correlations. We present the deep CAusal infeRence mOdel for traveL behavIour aNAlysis (CAROLINA), a novel framework that addresses both observed and unobserved confounders in discrete choice modelling through causal discovery and the strengths of deep neural networks. Within this interpretable framework, we also introduce a Generative Counterfactual model for forecasting individuals' behaviour by adapting the Normalizing Flow method. Through the case studies of virtual reality-based pedestrian crossing behaviour, revealed preference travel behaviour from London, and synthetic data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models in isolating causal relationships from confounding associations. Our proposed causal framework enhances predictive accuracy by employing data-driven algorithms, while maintaining interpretability. In addition, the counterfactual results show that intervention mechanisms that can reduce pedestrian stress levels lead to a 35.35% increase in individuals experiencing shorter waiting times. External interventions that reduce travel distances of non-mandatory trips in London lead to a 47% increase in the possible use of active and public transit modes.
Differential privacy is the leading mathematical framework for privacy protection, providing a probabilistic guarantee that safeguards individuals' private information when publishing statistics from a dataset. This guarantee is achieved by applying a randomized algorithm to the original data, which introduces unique challenges in data analysis by distorting inherent patterns. In particular, causal inference using observational data while preserving privacy is challenging because it requires a good covariate balance between treatment groups, but checking the covariate balance is challenging when privacy is a primary concern because releasing any statistic (e.g., t-statistic) for the balance check compromises privacy. Additionally, the performance of the privatized estimator critically depends on the choice of differential privacy mechanisms, and it remains unexplored how privacy-protecting causal inference could be conducted with observational data. In this article, we present a differentially private two-stage covariate balancing weighting estimator to infer causal effects from observational data. Our algorithm produces both point and interval estimators with statistical guarantees, such as covariate balance, rate optimality, and oracle budget allocation, under a given privacy budget.
In scientific domains -- from biology to the social sciences -- many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, it is possible to estimate the intervention distributions. In the absence of this domain knowledge, the causal structure must be discovered from the available observational data. However, observational data are often compatible with multiple causal graphs, making methods that commit to a single structure prone to overconfidence. A principled way to manage this structural uncertainty is via Bayesian inference, which averages over a posterior distribution on possible causal structures and functional mechanisms. Unfortunately, the number of causal structures grows super-exponentially with the number of nodes in the graph, making computations intractable. We propose to circumvent these challenges by using meta-learning to create an end-to-end model: the Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP). The model is trained to predict the Bayesian model-averaged interventional posterior distribution, and its end-to-end nature bypasses the need for expensive calculations. Empirically, we demonstrate that MACE-TNP outperforms strong Bayesian baselines. Our work establishes meta-learning as a flexible and scalable paradigm for approximating complex Bayesian causal inference, that can be scaled to increasingly challenging settings in the future.
The digitalization of financial markets has shifted trading from voice to electronic channels, with Multi-Dealer-to-Client (MD2C) platforms now enabling clients to request quotes (RfQs) for financial instruments like bonds from multiple dealers simultaneously. In this competitive landscape, dealers cannot see each other's prices, making a rigorous analysis of the negotiation process crucial to ensure their profitability. This article introduces a novel general framework for analyzing the RfQ process using probabilistic graphical models and causal inference. Within this framework, we explore different inferential questions that are relevant for dealers participating in MD2C platforms, such as the computation of optimal prices, estimating potential revenues and the identification of clients that might be interested in trading the dealer's axes. We then move into analyzing two different approaches for model specification: a generative model built on the work of (Fermanian, Gu\'eant & Pu, 2017); and discriminative models utilizing machine learning techniques. We evaluate these methodologies using predictive metrics designed to assess their effectiveness in the context of optimal pricing, highlighting the relative benefits of using models that take into account the internal mechanisms of the negotiation process.
Solving conditional moment restrictions (CMRs) is a key problem considered in statistics, causal inference, and econometrics, where the aim is to solve for a function of interest that satisfies some conditional moment equalities. Specifically, many techniques for causal inference, such as instrumental variable (IV) regression and proximal causal learning (PCL), are CMR problems. Most CMR estimators use a two-stage approach, where the first-stage estimation is directly plugged into the second stage to estimate the function of interest. However, naively plugging in the first-stage estimator can cause heavy bias in the second stage. This is particularly the case for recently proposed CMR estimators that use deep neural network (DNN) estimators for both stages, where regularisation and overfitting bias is present. We propose DML-CMR, a two-stage CMR estimator that provides an unbiased estimate with fast convergence rate guarantees. We derive a novel learning objective to reduce bias and develop the DML-CMR algorithm following the double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. We show that our DML-CMR estimator can achieve the minimax optimal convergence rate of $O(N^{-1/2})$ under parameterisation and mild regularity conditions, where $N$ is the sample size. We apply DML-CMR to a range of problems using DNN estimators, including IV regression and proximal causal learning on real-world datasets, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance against existing CMR estimators and algorithms tailored to those problems.
Causal inference in longitudinal biomedical data remains a central challenge, especially in psychiatry, where symptom heterogeneity and latent confounding frequently undermine classical estimators. Most existing methods for treatment effect estimation presuppose a fixed outcome variable and address confounding through observed covariate adjustment. However, the assumption of unconfoundedness may not hold for a fixed outcome in practice. To address this foundational limitation, we directly optimize the outcome definition to maximize causal identifiability. Our DEBIAS (Durable Effects with Backdoor-Invariant Aggregated Symptoms) algorithm learns non-negative, clinically interpretable weights for outcome aggregation, maximizing durable treatment effects and empirically minimizing both observed and latent confounding by leveraging the time-limited direct effects of prior treatments in psychiatric longitudinal data. The algorithm also furnishes an empirically verifiable test for outcome unconfoundedness. DEBIAS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in recovering causal effects for clinically interpretable composite outcomes across comprehensive experiments in depression and schizophrenia.
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are central to science and engineering applications including causal inference, scheduling, and neural architecture search. In this work, we introduce the DAG Convolutional Network (DCN), a novel graph neural network (GNN) architecture designed specifically for convolutional learning from signals supported on DAGs. The DCN leverages causal graph filters to learn nodal representations that account for the partial ordering inherent to DAGs, a strong inductive bias does not present in conventional GNNs. Unlike prior art in machine learning over DAGs, DCN builds on formal convolutional operations that admit spectral-domain representations. We further propose the Parallel DCN (PDCN), a model that feeds input DAG signals to a parallel bank of causal graph-shift operators and processes these DAG-aware features using a shared multilayer perceptron. This way, PDCN decouples model complexity from graph size while maintaining satisfactory predictive performance. The architectures' permutation equivariance and expressive power properties are also established. Comprehensive numerical tests across several tasks, datasets, and experimental conditions demonstrate that (P)DCN compares favorably with state-of-the-art baselines in terms of accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. These results position (P)DCN as a viable framework for deep learning from DAG-structured data that is designed from first (graph) signal processing principles.
Intellectual property (IP) rules have the potential to shape cross-border trade far more than their legalistic origins might suggest. Drawing on three decades of evidence, this review shows that stronger IP rights simultaneously create market-power forces that raise prices and market-expansion forces that broaden demand, while dynamic incentives spur quality upgrading and new export varieties. Micro-data and quasi-natural experiments after TRIPS reveal that IP most often boosts trade along the extensive margin and redirects some activity toward licensing and foreign investment. Policy bundling and measurement gaps on the strength of IP rights still cloud causal inference. Future work must map intangible flows and enforcement quality to capture the digital, data-driven frontier of international commerce.
Instrumental variable (IV) regression is recognized as one of the five core methods for causal inference, as identified by Angrist and Pischke (2008). This paper compares two leading approaches to inference under weak identification for just-identified IV models: the classical Anderson-Rubin (AR) procedure and the recently popular tF method proposed by Lee et al. (2022). Using replication data from the American Economic Review (AER) and Monte Carlo simulation experiments, we evaluate the two procedures in terms of statistical significance testing and confidence interval (CI) length. Empirically, we find that the AR procedure typically offers higher power and yields shorter CIs than the tF method. Nonetheless, as noted by Lee et al. (2022), tF has a theoretical advantage in terms of expected CI length. Our findings suggest that the two procedures may be viewed as complementary tools in empirical applications involving potentially weak instruments.
The double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework has become a cornerstone of modern causal inference, allowing researchers to utilise flexible machine learning models for the estimation of nuisance functions without introducing first-order bias into the final parameter estimate. However, the choice of machine learning model for the nuisance functions is often treated as a minor implementation detail. In this paper, we argue that this choice can have a profound impact on the substantive conclusions of the analysis. We demonstrate this by presenting and comparing two distinct Distributional Instrumental Variable Local Average Treatment Effect (D-IV-LATE) estimators. The first estimator leverages standard machine learning models like Random Forests for nuisance function estimation, while the second is a novel estimator employing Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). We establish the asymptotic properties of these estimators and evaluate their performance through Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical application analysing the distributional effects of 401(k) participation on net financial assets reveals that the choice of machine learning model for nuisance functions can significantly alter substantive conclusions, with the KAN-based estimator suggesting more complex treatment effect heterogeneity. These findings underscore a critical "caveat emptor". The selection of nuisance function estimators is not a mere implementation detail. Instead, it is a pivotal choice that can profoundly impact research outcomes in causal inference.
As Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) continue to evolve, their cognitive and reasoning capabilities have seen remarkable progress. However, challenges in visual fine-grained perception and commonsense causal inference persist. This paper introduces Argus Inspection, a multimodal benchmark with two levels of difficulty, emphasizing detailed visual recognition while incorporating real-world commonsense understanding to evaluate causal reasoning abilities. Expanding on it, we present the Eye of Panoptes framework, which integrates a binary parametric Sigmoid metric with an indicator function, enabling a more holistic evaluation of MLLMs' responses in opinion-based reasoning tasks. Experiments conducted on 26 mainstream MLLMs reveal that the highest performance in visual fine-grained reasoning reaches only 0.46, highlighting considerable potential for enhancement. Our research offers valuable perspectives for the continued refinement of MLLMs.
Large language models excel at generating fluent text but frequently struggle with structured reasoning involving temporal constraints, causal relationships, and probabilistic reasoning. To address these limitations, we propose Temporal Causal Probabilistic Description Logic (T-CPDL), an integrated framework that extends traditional Description Logic with temporal interval operators, explicit causal relationships, and probabilistic annotations. We present two distinct variants of T-CPDL: one capturing qualitative temporal relationships through Allen's interval algebra, and another variant enriched with explicit timestamped causal assertions. Both variants share a unified logical structure, enabling complex reasoning tasks ranging from simple temporal ordering to nuanced probabilistic causation. Empirical evaluations on temporal reasoning and causal inference benchmarks confirm that T-CPDL substantially improves inference accuracy, interpretability, and confidence calibration of language model outputs. By delivering transparent reasoning paths and fine-grained temporal and causal semantics, T-CPDL significantly enhances the capability of language models to support robust, explainable, and trustworthy decision-making. This work also lays the groundwork for developing advanced Logic-Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Logic-RAG) frameworks, potentially boosting the reasoning capabilities and efficiency of knowledge graph-enhanced RAG systems.
We introduce a mathematically rigorous framework for an artificial intelligence system composed of probabilistic agents evolving through structured competition and belief revision. The architecture, grounded in Bayesian inference, measure theory, and population dynamics, defines agent fitness as a function of alignment with a fixed external oracle representing ground truth. Agents compete in a discrete-time environment, adjusting posterior beliefs through observed outcomes, with higher-rated agents reproducing and lower-rated agents undergoing extinction. Ratings are updated via pairwise truth-aligned utility comparisons, and belief updates preserve measurable consistency and stochastic convergence. We introduce hash-based cryptographic identity commitments to ensure traceability, alongside causal inference operators using do-calculus. Formal theorems on convergence, robustness, and evolutionary stability are provided. The system establishes truth as an evolutionary attractor, demonstrating that verifiable knowledge arises from adversarial epistemic pressure within a computable, self-regulating swarm.
We introduce CIfly, a framework for efficient algorithmic primitives in graphical causal inference that isolates reachability as a reusable core operation. It builds on the insight that many causal reasoning tasks can be reduced to reachability in purpose-built state-space graphs that can be constructed on the fly during traversal. We formalize a rule table schema for specifying such algorithms and prove they run in linear time. We establish CIfly as a more efficient alternative to the common primitives moralization and latent projection, which we show are computationally equivalent to Boolean matrix multiplication. Our open-source Rust implementation parses rule table text files and runs the specified CIfly algorithms providing high-performance execution accessible from Python and R. We demonstrate CIfly's utility by re-implementing a range of established causal inference tasks within the framework and by developing new algorithms for instrumental variables. These contributions position CIfly as a flexible and scalable backbone for graphical causal inference, guiding algorithm development and enabling easy and efficient deployment.
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being adopted across psychology, serving as research tools, experimental subjects, human simulators, and computational models of cognition. However, the application of human measurement tools to these systems can produce contradictory results, raising concerns that many findings are measurement phantoms--statistical artifacts rather than genuine psychological phenomena. In this Perspective, we argue that building a robust science of AI psychology requires integrating two of our field's foundational pillars: the principles of reliable measurement and the standards for sound causal inference. We present a dual-validity framework to guide this integration, which clarifies how the evidence needed to support a claim scales with its scientific ambition. Using an LLM to classify text may require only basic accuracy checks, whereas claiming it can simulate anxiety demands a far more rigorous validation process. Current practice systematically fails to meet these requirements, often treating statistical pattern matching as evidence of psychological phenomena. The same model output--endorsing "I am anxious"--requires different validation strategies depending on whether researchers claim to measure, characterize, simulate, or model psychological constructs. Moving forward requires developing computational analogues of psychological constructs and establishing clear, scalable standards of evidence rather than the uncritical application of human measurement tools.
Causal forests are increasingly used to personalize decisions based on estimated treatment effects. A distinctive modeling choice in this method is honest estimation: using separate data for splitting and for estimating effects within leaves. This practice is the default in most implementations and is widely seen as desirable for causal inference. But we show that honesty can hurt the accuracy of individual-level effect estimates. The reason is a classic bias-variance trade-off: honesty reduces variance by preventing overfitting, but increases bias by limiting the model's ability to discover and exploit meaningful heterogeneity in treatment effects. This trade-off depends on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR): honesty helps when effect heterogeneity is hard to detect (low SNR), but hurts when the signal is strong (high SNR). In essence, honesty acts as a form of regularization, and like any regularization choice, it should be guided by out-of-sample performance, not adopted by default.
The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) datasets have become the Kernel of Digital Health Research by providing freely accessible, deidentified records from tens of thousands of critical care admissions, enabling a broad spectrum of applications in clinical decision support, outcome prediction, and healthcare analytics. Although numerous studies and surveys have explored the predictive power and clinical utility of MIMIC based models, critical challenges in data integration, representation, and interoperability remain underexplored. This paper presents a comprehensive survey that focuses uniquely on open problems. We identify persistent issues such as data granularity, cardinality limitations, heterogeneous coding schemes, and ethical constraints that hinder the generalizability and real-time implementation of machine learning models. We highlight key progress in dimensionality reduction, temporal modelling, causal inference, and privacy preserving analytics, while also outlining promising directions including hybrid modelling, federated learning, and standardized preprocessing pipelines. By critically examining these structural limitations and their implications, this survey offers actionable insights to guide the next generation of MIMIC powered digital health innovations.
With the rapid advancement of autonomous driving, deploying Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to enhance perception and decision-making has become increasingly common. However, the real-time application of VLMs is hindered by high latency and computational overhead, limiting their effectiveness in time-critical driving scenarios. This challenge is particularly evident when VLMs exhibit over-inference, continuing to process unnecessary layers even after confident predictions have been reached. To address this inefficiency, we propose AD-EE, an Early Exit framework that incorporates domain characteristics of autonomous driving and leverages causal inference to identify optimal exit layers. We evaluate our method on large-scale real-world autonomous driving datasets, including Waymo and the corner-case-focused CODA, as well as on a real vehicle running the Autoware Universe platform. Extensive experiments across multiple VLMs show that our method significantly reduces latency, with maximum improvements reaching up to 57.58%, and enhances object detection accuracy, with maximum gains of up to 44%.
This study investigates the application of quantum neural networks (QNNs) for propensity score estimation to address selection bias in comparing survival outcomes between laparoscopic and open surgical techniques in a cohort of 1177 colorectal carcinoma patients treated at University Hospital Ostrava (2001-2009). Using a dataset with 77 variables, including patient demographics and tumor characteristics, we developed QNN-based propensity score models focusing on four key covariates (Age, Sex, Stage, BMI). The QNN architecture employed a linear ZFeatureMap for data encoding, a SummedPaulis operator for predictions, and the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) for robust, gradient-free optimization in noisy quantum environments. Variance regularization was integrated to mitigate quantum measurement noise, with simulations conducted under exact, sampling (1024 shots), and noisy hardware (FakeManhattanV2) conditions. QNNs, particularly with simulated hardware noise, outperformed classical logistic regression and gradient boosted machines in small samples (AUC up to 0.750 for n=100), with noise modeling enhancing predictive stability. Propensity score matching and weighting, optimized via genetic matching and matching weights, achieved covariate balance with standardized mean differences of 0.0849 and 0.0869, respectively. Survival analyses using Kaplan-Meier estimation, Cox proportional hazards, and Aalen additive regression revealed no significant survival differences post-adjustment (p-values 0.287-0.851), indicating confounding bias in unadjusted outcomes. These results highlight QNNs' potential, enhanced by CMA-ES and noise-aware strategies, to improve causal inference in biomedical research, particularly for small-sample, high-dimensional datasets.