A deep causal inference model for interpretable travel behaviour analysis

원문 초록

Transportation policy assessment often involves causal questions, yet traditional travel behaviour lacks the ability of distinguishing causal association from non-causal correlations. We present the deep CAusal infeRence mOdel for traveL behavIour aNAlysis (CAROLINA), a novel framework that addresses both observed and unobserved confounders in discrete choice modelling through causal discovery and the strengths of deep neural networks. Within this interpretable framework, we also introduce a Generative Counterfactual model for forecasting individuals' behaviour by adapting the Normalizing Flow method. Through the case studies of virtual reality-based pedestrian crossing behaviour, revealed preference travel behaviour from London, and synthetic data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models in isolating causal relationships from confounding associations. Our proposed causal framework enhances predictive accuracy by employing data-driven algorithms, while maintaining interpretability. In addition, the counterfactual results show that intervention mechanisms that can reduce pedestrian stress levels lead to a 35.35% increase in individuals experiencing shorter waiting times. External interventions that reduce travel distances of non-mandatory trips in London lead to a 47% increase in the possible use of active and public transit modes.