Rule Forest: Interpretable Ensembles of LLM-Generated Questions for Rare-Outcome Prediction

원문 초록

Many high-stakes screening decisions in finance amount to predicting a rare outcome from unstructured text, such as whether a founder will successfully build a large company, or which crowdfunded loan will fail to attract funding. When positives are this rare, simple models may be preferable to more complex ones. For example, a model that learns a weight for each feature may have too little signal to estimate those weights reliably, and also inspecting the model means reading a list of fitted coefficients rather than a simple rule that can be checked by eye. We introduce Rule Forest, which uses a large language model to generate simple YES/NO questions, rather than using it to directly predict outcomes, and combines the strongest questions into an equal-weight "green-flags" scorecard. This scorecard is as accurate as an equivalent model that learns a weight per question, within noise, and its advantage appears largest when positives are rarest. The result is an interpretable list of rules that a domain expert can edit and extend. When predicting founder success, the fraction of shortlisted founders who succeed increases from about 1 in 50 to 1 in 10, and to about 1 in 6 with a handful of expert-written questions. A second dataset which focuses on identifying failed loans, Kiva microloans, shows the same qualitative pattern. Across both tasks, the lesson is the same: a language model is most useful not as the predictor but as a generator of features a person can read, edit, and improve, and when positives are scarce that interpretability costs no measurable accuracy.