The LifeTime Value (LTV) prediction, which endeavors to forecast the cumulative purchase contribution of a user to a particular item, remains a vital challenge that advertisers are keen to resolve. A precise LTV prediction system enhances the alignment of user interests with meticulously designed advertisements, thereby generating substantial profits for advertisers. Nonetheless, this issue is complicated by the paucity of data typically observed in real-world advertising scenarios. The purchase rate among registered users is often as critically low as 0.1%, resulting in a dataset where the majority of users make only several purchases. Consequently, there is insufficient supervisory signal for effectively training the LTV prediction model. An additional challenge emerges from the interdependencies among tasks with high correlation. It is a common practice to estimate a user's contribution to a game over a specified temporal interval. Varying the lengths of these intervals corresponds to distinct predictive tasks, which are highly correlated. For instance, predictions over a 7-day period are heavily reliant on forecasts made over a 3-day period, where exceptional cases can adversely affect the accuracy of both tasks. In order to comprehensively address the aforementioned challenges, we introduce an innovative framework denoted as Graph-Represented Pareto-Optimal LifeTime Value prediction (GRePO-LTV). Graph representation learning is initially employed to address the issue of data scarcity. Subsequently, Pareto-Optimization is utilized to manage the interdependence of prediction tasks.
In digital gaming, long-term user lifetime value (LTV) prediction is essential for monetization strategy, yet presents major challenges due to delayed payment behavior, sparse early user data, and the presence of high-value outliers. While existing models typically rely on either short-cycle observations or strong distributional assumptions, such approaches often underestimate long-term value or suffer from poor robustness. To address these issues, we propose SHort-cycle auxiliary with Order-preserving REgression (SHORE), a novel LTV prediction framework that integrates short-horizon predictions (e.g., LTV-15 and LTV-30) as auxiliary tasks to enhance long-cycle targets (e.g., LTV-60). SHORE also introduces a hybrid loss function combining order-preserving multi-class classification and a dynamic Huber loss to mitigate the influence of zero-inflation and outlier payment behavior. Extensive offline and online experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that SHORE significantly outperforms existing baselines, achieving a 47.91\% relative reduction in prediction error in online deployment. These results highlight SHORE's practical effectiveness and robustness in industrial-scale LTV prediction for digital games.
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown that it is promising to utilize Process Reward Models (PRMs) as verifiers to enhance the performance of LLMs. However, current PRMs face three key challenges: (1) limited process supervision and generalization capabilities, (2) dependence on scalar value prediction without leveraging the generative abilities of LLMs, and (3) inability to scale the test-time compute of PRMs. In this work, we introduce GenPRM, a generative process reward model that performs explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning with code verification before providing judgment for each reasoning step. To obtain high-quality process supervision labels and rationale data, we propose Relative Progress Estimation (RPE) and a rationale synthesis framework that incorporates code verification. Experimental results on ProcessBench and several mathematical reasoning tasks show that GenPRM significantly outperforms prior PRMs with only 23K training data from MATH dataset. Through test-time scaling, a 1.5B GenPRM outperforms GPT-4o, and a 7B GenPRM surpasses Qwen2.5-Math-PRM-72B on ProcessBench. Additionally, GenPRM demonstrates strong abilities to serve as a critic model for policy model refinement. This work establishes a new paradigm for process supervision that bridges the gap between PRMs and critic models in LLMs. Our code, model, and data will be available in https://ryanliu112.github.io/GenPRM.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in various graph-based machine learning tasks, yet evaluating the importance of neighbors of testing nodes remains largely unexplored due to the challenge of assessing data importance without test labels. To address this gap, we propose Shapley-Guided Utility Learning (SGUL), a novel framework for graph inference data valuation. SGUL innovatively combines transferable data-specific and modelspecific features to approximate test accuracy without relying on ground truth labels. By incorporating Shapley values as a preprocessing step and using feature Shapley values as input, our method enables direct optimization of Shapley value prediction while reducing computational demands. SGUL overcomes key limitations of existing methods, including poor generalization to unseen test-time structures and indirect optimization. Experiments on diverse graph datasets demonstrate that SGUL consistently outperforms existing baselines in both inductive and transductive settings. SGUL offers an effective, efficient, and interpretable approach for quantifying the value of test-time neighbors.
Partially observable environments present a considerable computational challenge in reinforcement learning due to the need to consider long histories. Learning with a finite window of observations quickly becomes intractable as the window length grows. In this work, we introduce memory traces. Inspired by eligibility traces, these are compact representations of the history of observations in the form of exponential moving averages. We prove sample complexity bounds for the problem of offline on-policy evaluation that quantify the value errors achieved with memory traces for the class of Lipschitz continuous value estimates. We establish a close connection to the window approach, and demonstrate that, in certain environments, learning with memory traces is significantly more sample efficient. Finally, we underline the effectiveness of memory traces empirically in online reinforcement learning experiments for both value prediction and control.
Power indices are essential in assessing the contribution and influence of individual agents in multi-agent systems, providing crucial insights into collaborative dynamics and decision-making processes. While invaluable, traditional computational methods for exact or estimated power indices values require significant time and computational constraints, especially for large $(n\ge10)$ coalitions. These constraints have historically limited researchers' ability to analyse complex multi-agent interactions comprehensively. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel Neural Networks-based approach that efficiently estimates power indices for voting games, demonstrating comparable and often superiour performance to existing tools in terms of both speed and accuracy. This method not only addresses existing computational bottlenecks, but also enables rapid analysis of large coalitions, opening new avenues for multi-agent system research by overcoming previous computational limitations and providing researchers with a more accessible, scalable analytical tool.This increased efficiency will allow for the analysis of more complex and realistic multi-agent scenarios.
Automating planning with LLMs presents transformative opportunities for traditional industries, yet remains underexplored. In commercial construction, the complexity of automated scheduling often requires manual intervention to ensure precision. We propose CONSTRUCTA, a novel framework leveraging LLMs to optimize construction schedules in complex projects like semiconductor fabrication. CONSTRUCTA addresses key challenges by: (1) integrating construction-specific knowledge through static RAG; (2) employing context-sampling techniques inspired by architectural expertise to provide relevant input; and (3) deploying Construction DPO to align schedules with expert preferences using RLHF. Experiments on proprietary data demonstrate performance improvements of +42.3% in missing value prediction, +79.1% in dependency analysis, and +28.9% in automated planning compared to baseline methods, showcasing its potential to revolutionize construction workflows and inspire domain-specific LLM advancements.
We investigate a Bayesian mechanism design problem where a seller seeks to maximize revenue by selling an indivisible good to one of n buyers, incorporating potentially unreliable predictions (signals) of buyers' private values derived from a machine learning model. We propose a framework where these signals are sometimes reflective of buyers' true valuations but other times are hallucinations, which are uncorrelated with the buyers' true valuations. Our main contribution is a characterization of the optimal auction under this framework. Our characterization establishes a near-decomposition of how to treat types above and below the signal. For the one buyer case, the seller's optimal strategy is to post one of three fairly intuitive prices depending on the signal, which we call the "ignore", "follow" and "cap" actions.
With the rapid development of deep reinforcement learning technology, it gradually demonstrates excellent potential and is becoming the most promising solution in the robotics. However, in the smart manufacturing domain, there is still not too much research involved in dynamic adaptive control mechanisms optimizing complex processes. This research advances the integration of Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) with digital twins for industrial robotics applications, providing a framework for enhanced adaptive real-time control for smart additive manufacturing processing. The system architecture combines Unity's simulation environment with ROS2 for seamless digital twin synchronization, while leveraging transfer learning to efficiently adapt trained models across tasks. We demonstrate our methodology using a Viper X300s robot arm with the proposed hierarchical reward structure to address the common reinforcement learning challenges in two distinct control scenarios. The results show rapid policy convergence and robust task execution in both simulated and physical environments demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach.
Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs \textit{structural discretization} to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a \textit{curriculum learning with embedding mixup} strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.
Spatial-temporal forecasting is crucial and widely applicable in various domains such as traffic, energy, and climate. Benefiting from the abundance of unlabeled spatial-temporal data, self-supervised methods are increasingly adapted to learn spatial-temporal representations. However, it encounters three key challenges: 1) the difficulty in selecting reliable negative pairs due to the homogeneity of variables, hindering contrastive learning methods; 2) overlooking spatial correlations across variables over time; 3) limitations of efficiency and scalability in existing self-supervised learning methods. To tackle these, we propose a lightweight representation-learning model ST-ReP, integrating current value reconstruction and future value prediction into the pre-training framework for spatial-temporal forecasting. And we design a new spatial-temporal encoder to model fine-grained relationships. Moreover, multi-time scale analysis is incorporated into the self-supervised loss to enhance predictive capability. Experimental results across diverse domains demonstrate that the proposed model surpasses pre-training-based baselines, showcasing its ability to learn compact and semantically enriched representations while exhibiting superior scalability.
Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to capture model uncertainty in modeling user behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enhances the architecture of purely neural network models by incorporating the Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) framework. We benchmarked the proposed method using data from one of the most downloaded mobile games in the world, and demonstrated a substantial improvement in predictive Top 5\% Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our approach provides confidence metric as an extra dimension for performance evaluation across various neural network models, facilitating more informed business decisions.
The Pairwise Markov Chain (PMC) is a probabilistic graphical model extending the well-known Hidden Markov Model. This model, although highly effective for many tasks, has been scarcely utilized for continuous value prediction. This is mainly due to the issue of modeling observations inherent in generative probabilistic models. In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for prediction with the PMC. On the one hand, this algorithm allows circumventing the feature problem, thus fully exploiting the capabilities of the PMC. On the other hand, it enables the PMC to extend any predictive model by introducing hidden states, updated at each time step, and allowing the introduction of non-stationarity for any model. We apply the PMC with its new algorithm for volatility forecasting, which we compare to the highly popular GARCH(1,1) and feedforward neural models across numerous pairs. This is particularly relevant given the regime changes that we can observe in volatility. For each scenario, our algorithm enhances the performance of the extended model, demonstrating the value of our approach.
Federated Collaborative Filtering (FedCF) is an emerging field focused on developing a new recommendation framework with preserving privacy in a federated setting. Existing FedCF methods typically combine distributed Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithms with privacy-preserving mechanisms, and then preserve personalized information into a user embedding vector. However, the user embedding is usually insufficient to preserve the rich information of the fine-grained personalization across heterogeneous clients. This paper proposes a novel personalized FedCF method by preserving users' personalized information into a latent variable and a neural model simultaneously. Specifically, we decompose the modeling of user knowledge into two encoders, each designed to capture shared knowledge and personalized knowledge separately. A personalized gating network is then applied to balance personalization and generalization between the global and local encoders. Moreover, to effectively train the proposed framework, we model the CF problem as a specialized Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) task by integrating user interaction vector reconstruction with missing value prediction. The decoder is trained to reconstruct the implicit feedback from items the user has interacted with, while also predicting items the user might be interested in but has not yet interacted with. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other baseline methods, showcasing superior performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/mtics/FedDAE.
Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.
Large Language Model-based Vision-Language Models (LLM-based VLMs) have demonstrated impressive results in various vision-language understanding tasks. However, how well these VLMs can see image detail beyond the semantic level remains unclear. In our study, we introduce a pixel value prediction task (PVP) to explore "How Well Can Vision Language Models See Image Details?" and to assist VLMs in perceiving more details. Typically, these models comprise a frozen CLIP visual encoder, a large language model, and a connecting module. After fine-tuning VLMs on the PVP task, we find: 1) existing VLMs struggle to predict precise pixel values by only fine-tuning the connection module and LLM; and 2) prediction precision is significantly improved when the vision encoder is also adapted. Additionally, our research reveals that incorporating pixel value prediction as one of the VLM pre-training tasks and vision encoder adaptation markedly boosts VLM performance on downstream image-language understanding tasks requiring detailed image perception, such as referring image segmentation (with an average +10.19 cIoU improvement) and video game decision making (with average score improvements of +80.34 and +70.54 on two games, respectively).
The SYNTAX score has become a widely used measure of coronary disease severity, crucial in selecting the optimal mode of the revascularization procedure. This paper introduces a new medical regression and classification problem - automatically estimating SYNTAX score from coronary angiography. Our study presents a comprehensive CardioSYNTAX dataset of 3,018 patients for the SYNTAX score estimation and coronary dominance classification. The dataset features a balanced distribution of individuals with zero and non-zero scores. This dataset includes a first-of-its-kind, complete coronary angiography samples captured through a multi-view X-ray video, allowing one to observe coronary arteries from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we present a novel, fully automatic end-to-end method for estimating the SYNTAX. For such a difficult task, we have achieved a solid coefficient of determination R2 of 0.51 in score value prediction and 77.3% accuracy for zero score classification.
Retrieving 3D bone anatomy from biplanar X-ray images is crucial since it can significantly reduce radiation exposure compared to traditional CT-based methods. Although various deep learning models have been proposed to address this complex task, they suffer from two limitations: 1) They employ voxel representation for bone shape and exploit 3D convolutional layers to capture anatomy prior, which are memory-intensive and limit the reconstruction resolution. 2) They overlook the prevalent occlusion effect within X-ray images and directly extract features using a simple loss, which struggles to fully exploit complex X-ray information. To tackle these concerns, we present Spatial-division Augmented Occupancy Field~(SdAOF). SdAOF adopts the continuous occupancy field for shape representation, reformulating the reconstruction problem as a per-point occupancy value prediction task. Its implicit and continuous nature enables memory-efficient training and fine-scale surface reconstruction at different resolutions during the inference. Moreover, we propose a novel spatial-division augmented distillation strategy to provide feature-level guidance for capturing the occlusion relationship. Extensive experiments on the pelvis reconstruction dataset show that SdAOF outperforms state-of-the-art methods and reconstructs fine-scale bone surfaces.The code is available at https://github.com/xmed-lab/SdAOF
We present a bound for value-prediction error with respect to model misspecification that is tight, including constant factors. This is a direct improvement of the "simulation lemma," a foundational result in reinforcement learning. We demonstrate that existing bounds are quite loose, becoming vacuous for large discount factors, due to the suboptimal treatment of compounding probability errors. By carefully considering this quantity on its own, instead of as a subcomponent of value error, we derive a bound that is sub-linear with respect to transition function misspecification. We then demonstrate broader applicability of this technique, improving a similar bound in the related subfield of hierarchical abstraction.
Planning at execution time has been shown to dramatically improve performance for agents in both single-agent and multi-agent settings. A well-known family of approaches to planning at execution time are AlphaZero and its variants, which use Monte Carlo Tree Search together with a neural network that guides the search by predicting state values and action probabilities. AlphaZero trains these networks by minimizing a planning loss that makes the value prediction match the episode return, and the policy prediction at the root of the search tree match the output of the full tree expansion. AlphaZero has been applied to both single-agent environments (such as Sokoban) and multi-agent environments (such as chess and Go) with great success. In this paper, we explore an intriguing question: In single-agent environments, can we outperform AlphaZero by directly maximizing the episode score instead of minimizing this planning loss, while leaving the MCTS algorithm and neural architecture unchanged? To directly maximize the episode score, we use evolution strategies, a family of algorithms for zeroth-order blackbox optimization. Our experiments indicate that, across multiple environments, directly maximizing the episode score outperforms minimizing the planning loss.