Tropical cyclone (TC) is an extreme tropical weather system and its trajectory can be described by a variety of spatio-temporal data. Effective mining of these data is the key to accurate TCs track forecasting. However, existing methods face the problem that the model complexity is too high or it is difficult to efficiently extract features from multi-modal data. In this paper, we propose the Dual-Branched spatio-temporal Fusion Network (DBF-Net) -- a novel multi-horizon tropical cyclone track forecasting model which fuses the multi-modal features efficiently. DBF-Net contains a TC features branch that extracts temporal features from 1D inherent features of TCs and a pressure field branch that extracts spatio-temporal features from reanalysis 2D pressure field. Through the encoder-decoder-based architecture and efficient feature fusion, DBF-Net can fully mine the information of the two types of data, and achieve good TCs track prediction results. Extensive experiments on historical TCs track data in the Northwest Pacific show that our DBF-Net achieves significant improvement compared with existing statistical and deep learning TCs track forecast methods.
This paper describes a novel machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our multimodal framework, called Hurricast, efficiently combines spatial-temporal data with statistical data by extracting features with deep-learning encoder-decoder architectures and predicting with gradient-boosted trees. We evaluate our models in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins on 2016-2019 for 24-hour lead time track and intensity forecasts and show they achieve comparable mean absolute error and skill to current operational forecast models while computing in seconds. Furthermore, the inclusion of Hurricast into an operational forecast consensus model could improve over the National Hurricane Center's official forecast, thus highlighting the complementary properties with existing approaches. In summary, our work demonstrates that utilizing machine learning techniques to combine different data sources can lead to new opportunities in tropical cyclone forecasting.
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current statistical forecasting models have much room for improvement given that the database of past hurricanes is constantly growing. Machine learning methods, that can capture non-linearities and complex relations, have only been scarcely tested for this application. We propose a neural network model fusing past trajectory data and reanalysis atmospheric images (wind and pressure 3D fields). We use a moving frame of reference that follows the storm center for the 24h tracking forecast. The network is trained to estimate the longitude and latitude displacement of tropical cyclones and depressions from a large database from both hemispheres (more than 3000 storms since 1979, sampled at a 6 hour frequency). The advantage of the fused network is demonstrated and a comparison with current forecast models shows that deep learning methods could provide a valuable and complementary prediction. Moreover, our method can give a forecast for a new storm in a few seconds, which is an important asset for real-time forecasts compared to traditional forecasts.