En route travel time estimation (ER-TTE) focuses on predicting the travel time of the remaining route. Existing ER-TTE methods always make re-estimation which significantly hinders real-time performance, especially when faced with the computational demands of simultaneous user requests. This results in delays and reduced responsiveness in ER-TTE services. We propose a general efficient framework U-ERTTE combining an Uncertainty-Guided Decision mechanism (UGD) and Fine-Tuning with Meta-Learning (FTML) to address these challenges. UGD quantifies the uncertainty and provides confidence intervals for the entire route. It selectively re-estimates only when the actual travel time deviates from the predicted confidence intervals, thereby optimizing the efficiency of ER-TTE. To ensure the accuracy of confidence intervals and accurate predictions that need to re-estimate, FTML is employed to train the model, enabling it to learn general driving patterns and specific features to adapt to specific tasks. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real datasets demonstrate that the U-ERTTE framework significantly enhances inference speed and throughput while maintaining high effectiveness. Our code is available at https://github.com/shenzekai/U-ERTTE
This paper systematically explores the advancements in adaptive trip route planning and travel time estimation (TTE) through Artificial Intelligence (AI). With the increasing complexity of urban transportation systems, traditional navigation methods often struggle to accommodate dynamic user preferences, real-time traffic conditions, and scalability requirements. This study explores the contributions of established AI techniques, including Machine Learning (ML), Reinforcement Learning (RL), and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), alongside emerging methodologies like Meta-Learning, Explainable AI (XAI), Generative AI, and Federated Learning. In addition to highlighting these innovations, the paper identifies critical challenges such as ethical concerns, computational scalability, and effective data integration, which must be addressed to advance the field. The paper concludes with recommendations for leveraging AI to build efficient, transparent, and sustainable navigation systems.
Effective urban traffic management is vital for sustainable city development, relying on intelligent systems with machine learning tasks such as traffic flow prediction and travel time estimation. Traditional approaches usually focus on static road network and trajectory representation learning, and overlook the dynamic nature of traffic states and trajectories, which is crucial for downstream tasks. To address this gap, we propose TRACK, a novel framework to bridge traffic state and trajectory data for dynamic road network and trajectory representation learning. TRACK leverages graph attention networks (GAT) to encode static and spatial road segment features, and introduces a transformer-based model for trajectory representation learning. By incorporating transition probabilities from trajectory data into GAT attention weights, TRACK captures dynamic spatial features of road segments. Meanwhile, TRACK designs a traffic transformer encoder to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of road segments from traffic state data. To further enhance dynamic representations, TRACK proposes a co-attentional transformer encoder and a trajectory-traffic state matching task. Extensive experiments on real-life urban traffic datasets demonstrate the superiority of TRACK over state-of-the-art baselines. Case studies confirm TRACK's ability to capture spatial-temporal dynamics effectively.
En Route Travel Time Estimation (ER-TTE) aims to learn driving patterns from traveled routes to achieve rapid and accurate real-time predictions. However, existing methods ignore the complexity and dynamism of real-world traffic systems, resulting in significant gaps in efficiency and accuracy in real-time scenarios. Addressing this issue is a critical yet challenging task. This paper proposes a novel framework that redefines the implementation path of ER-TTE to achieve highly efficient and effective predictions. Firstly, we introduce a novel pipeline consisting of a Decision Maker and a Predictor to rectify the inefficient prediction strategies of current methods. The Decision Maker performs efficient real-time decisions to determine whether the high-complexity prediction model in the Predictor needs to be invoked, and the Predictor recalculates the travel time or infers from historical prediction results based on these decisions. Next, to tackle the dynamic and uncertain real-time scenarios, we model the online decision-making problem as a Markov decision process and design an intelligent agent based on reinforcement learning for autonomous decision-making. Moreover, to fully exploit the spatio-temporal correlation between online data and offline data, we meticulously design feature representation and encoding techniques based on the attention mechanism. Finally, to improve the flawed training and evaluation strategies of existing methods, we propose an end-to-end training and evaluation approach, incorporating curriculum learning strategies to manage spatio-temporal data for more advanced training algorithms. Extensive evaluations on three real-world datasets confirm that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in both accuracy and efficiency.
Accurate travel time estimation is essential for navigation and itinerary planning. While existing research employs probabilistic modeling to assess travel time uncertainty and account for correlations between multiple trips, modeling the temporal variability of multi-trip travel time distributions remains a significant challenge. Capturing the evolution of joint distributions requires large, well-organized datasets; however, real-world trip data are often temporally sparse and spatially unevenly distributed. To address this issue, we propose SPTTE, a spatiotemporal probabilistic framework that models the evolving joint distribution of multi-trip travel times by formulating the estimation task as a spatiotemporal stochastic process regression problem with fragmented observations. SPTTE incorporates an RNN-based temporal Gaussian process parameterization to regularize sparse observations and capture temporal dependencies. Additionally, it employs a prior-based heterogeneity smoothing strategy to correct unreliable learning caused by unevenly distributed trips, effectively modeling temporal variability under sparse and uneven data distributions. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that SPTTE outperforms state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic methods by over 10.13%. Ablation studies and visualizations further confirm the effectiveness of the model components.
Trajectory representation learning (TRL) maps trajectories to vectors that can then be used for various downstream tasks, including trajectory similarity computation, trajectory classification, and travel-time estimation. However, existing TRL methods often produce vectors that, when used in downstream tasks, yield insufficiently accurate results. A key reason is that they fail to utilize the comprehensive information encompassed by trajectories. We propose a self-supervised TRL framework, called RED, which effectively exploits multiple types of trajectory information. Overall, RED adopts the Transformer as the backbone model and masks the constituting paths in trajectories to train a masked autoencoder (MAE). In particular, RED considers the moving patterns of trajectories by employing a Road-aware masking strategy} that retains key paths of trajectories during masking, thereby preserving crucial information of the trajectories. RED also adopts a spatial-temporal-user joint Embedding scheme to encode comprehensive information when preparing the trajectories as model inputs. To conduct training, RED adopts Dual-objective task learning}: the Transformer encoder predicts the next segment in a trajectory, and the Transformer decoder reconstructs the entire trajectory. RED also considers the spatial-temporal correlations of trajectories by modifying the attention mechanism of the Transformer. We compare RED with 9 state-of-the-art TRL methods for 4 downstream tasks on 3 real-world datasets, finding that RED can usually improve the accuracy of the best-performing baseline by over 5%.
Trajectory representation learning is a fundamental task for applications in fields including smart city, and urban planning, as it facilitates the utilization of trajectory data (e.g., vehicle movements) for various downstream applications, such as trajectory similarity computation or travel time estimation. This is achieved by learning low-dimensional representations from high-dimensional and raw trajectory data. However, existing methods for trajectory representation learning either rely on grid-based or road-based representations, which are inherently different and thus, could lose information contained in the other modality. Moreover, these methods overlook the dynamic nature of urban traffic, relying on static road network features rather than time varying traffic patterns. In this paper, we propose TIGR, a novel model designed to integrate grid and road network modalities while incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics to learn rich, general-purpose representations of trajectories. We evaluate TIGR on two realworld datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of combining both modalities by substantially outperforming state-of-the-art methods, i.e., up to 43.22% for trajectory similarity, up to 16.65% for travel time estimation, and up to 10.16% for destination prediction.
Modeling trajectory data with generic-purpose dense representations has become a prevalent paradigm for various downstream applications, such as trajectory classification, travel time estimation and similarity computation. However, existing methods typically rely on trajectories from a single spatial view, limiting their ability to capture the rich contextual information that is crucial for gaining deeper insights into movement patterns across different geospatial contexts. To this end, we propose MVTraj, a novel multi-view modeling method for trajectory representation learning. MVTraj integrates diverse contextual knowledge, from GPS to road network and points-of-interest to provide a more comprehensive understanding of trajectory data. To align the learning process across multiple views, we utilize GPS trajectories as a bridge and employ self-supervised pretext tasks to capture and distinguish movement patterns across different spatial views. Following this, we treat trajectories from different views as distinct modalities and apply a hierarchical cross-modal interaction module to fuse the representations, thereby enriching the knowledge derived from multiple sources. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that MVTraj significantly outperforms existing baselines in tasks associated with various spatial views, validating its effectiveness and practical utility in spatio-temporal modeling.
Uncertainty quantification in travel time estimation (TTE) aims to estimate the confidence interval for travel time, given the origin (O), destination (D), and departure time (T). Accurately quantifying this uncertainty requires generating the most likely path and assessing travel time uncertainty along the path. This involves two main challenges: 1) Predicting a path that aligns with the ground truth, and 2) modeling the impact of travel time in each segment on overall uncertainty under varying conditions. We propose DutyTTE to address these challenges. For the first challenge, we introduce a deep reinforcement learning method to improve alignment between the predicted path and the ground truth, providing more accurate travel time information from road segments to improve TTE. For the second challenge, we propose a mixture of experts guided uncertainty quantification mechanism to better capture travel time uncertainty for each segment under varying contexts. Additionally, we calibrate our results using Hoeffding's upper-confidence bound to provide statistical guarantees for the estimated confidence intervals. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method.
Travel time estimation is a crucial application in navigation apps and web mapping services. Current deterministic and probabilistic methods primarily focus on modeling individual trips, assuming independence among trips. However, in real-world scenarios, we often observe strong inter-trip correlations due to factors such as weather conditions, traffic management, and road works. In this paper, we propose to model trip-level link travel time using a Gaussian hierarchical model, which can characterize both inter-trip and intra-trip correlations. The joint distribution of travel time of multiple trips becomes a multivariate Gaussian parameterized by learnable link representations. To effectively use the sparse GPS trajectories, we also propose a data augmentation method based on trip sub-sampling, which allows for fine-grained gradient backpropagation in learning link representations. During inference, we estimate the probability distribution of the travel time of a queried trip conditional on the completed trips that are spatiotemporally adjacent. We refer to the overall framework as ProbTTE. We evaluate ProbTTE on two real-world GPS trajectory datasets, and the results demonstrate its superior performance compared to state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic baselines. Additionally, we find that the learned link representations align well with the physical geometry of the network, making them suitable as input for other applications.
Rapid urbanization has significantly escalated traffic congestion, underscoring the need for advanced congestion prediction services to bolster intelligent transportation systems. As one of the world's largest ride-hailing platforms, DiDi places great emphasis on the accuracy of congestion prediction to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of their real-time services, such as travel time estimation and route planning. Despite numerous efforts have been made on congestion prediction, most of them fall short in handling heterogeneous and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies (e.g., periodic and non-periodic congestions), particularly in the presence of noisy and incomplete traffic data. In this paper, we introduce a Congestion Prediction Mixture-of-Experts, CP-MoE, to address the above challenges. We first propose a sparsely-gated Mixture of Adaptive Graph Learners (MAGLs) with congestion-aware inductive biases to improve the model capacity for efficiently capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies in varying traffic scenarios. Then, we devise two specialized experts to help identify stable trends and periodic patterns within the traffic data, respectively. By cascading these experts with MAGLs, CP-MoE delivers congestion predictions in a more robust and interpretable manner. Furthermore, an ordinal regression strategy is adopted to facilitate effective collaboration among diverse experts. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method compared with state-of-the-art spatio-temporal prediction models. More importantly, CP-MoE has been deployed in DiDi to improve the accuracy and reliability of the travel time estimation system.
Trajectory computing is a pivotal domain encompassing trajectory data management and mining, garnering widespread attention due to its crucial role in various practical applications such as location services, urban traffic, and public safety. Traditional methods, focusing on simplistic spatio-temporal features, face challenges of complex calculations, limited scalability, and inadequate adaptability to real-world complexities. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the development and recent advances in deep learning for trajectory computing (DL4Traj). We first define trajectory data and provide a brief overview of widely-used deep learning models. Systematically, we explore deep learning applications in trajectory management (pre-processing, storage, analysis, and visualization) and mining (trajectory-related forecasting, trajectory-related recommendation, trajectory classification, travel time estimation, anomaly detection, and mobility generation). Notably, we encapsulate recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) that hold the potential to augment trajectory computing. Additionally, we summarize application scenarios, public datasets, and toolkits. Finally, we outline current challenges in DL4Traj research and propose future directions. Relevant papers and open-source resources have been collated and are continuously updated at: \href{https://github.com/yoshall/Awesome-Trajectory-Computing}{DL4Traj Repo}.
Vehicle movement is frequently captured in the form of GPS trajectories, i.e., sequences of timestamped GPS locations. Such data is widely used for various tasks such as travel-time estimation, trajectory recovery, and trajectory prediction. A universal vehicle trajectory model could be applied to different tasks, removing the need to maintain multiple specialized models, thereby reducing computational and storage costs. However, creating such a model is challenging when the integrity of trajectory features is compromised, i.e., in scenarios where only partial features are available or the trajectories are sparse. To address these challenges, we propose the Universal Vehicle Trajectory Model (UVTM), which can effectively adapt to different tasks without excessive retraining. UVTM incorporates two specialized designs. First, it divides trajectory features into three distinct domains. Each domain can be masked and generated independently to accommodate tasks with only partially available features. Second, UVTM is pre-trained by reconstructing dense, feature-complete trajectories from sparse, feature-incomplete counterparts, enabling strong performance even when the integrity of trajectory features is compromised. Experiments involving four representative trajectory-related tasks on three real-world vehicle trajectory datasets provide insight into the performance of UVTM and offer evidence that it is capable of meeting its objectives.
This paper leverages macroscopic models and multi-source spatiotemporal data collected from automatic traffic counters and probe vehicles to accurately estimate traffic flow and travel time in links where these measurements are unavailable. This problem is critical in transportation planning applications where the sensor coverage is low and the planned interventions have network-wide impacts. The proposed model, named the Macroscopic Traffic Estimator (MaTE), can perform network-wide estimations of traffic flow and travel time only using the set of observed measurements of these quantities. Because MaTE is grounded in macroscopic flow theory, all parameters and variables are interpretable. The estimated traffic flow satisfies fundamental flow conservation constraints and exhibits an increasing monotonic relationship with the estimated travel time. Using logit-based stochastic traffic assignment as the principle for routing flow behavior makes the model fully differentiable with respect to the model parameters. This property facilitates the application of computational graphs to learn parameters from vast amounts of spatiotemporal data. We also integrate neural networks and polynomial kernel functions to capture link flow interactions and enrich the mapping of traffic flows into travel times. MaTE also adds a destination choice model and a trip generation model that uses historical data on the number of trips generated by location. Experiments on synthetic data show that the model can accurately estimate travel time and traffic flow in out-of-sample links. Results obtained using real-world multi-source data from a large-scale transportation network suggest that MaTE outperforms data-driven benchmarks, especially in travel time estimation. The estimated parameters of MaTE are also informative about the hourly change in travel demand and supply characteristics of the transportation network.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have led to major breakthroughs in a variety of domains such as drug discovery, social network analysis, and travel time estimation. However, they lack interpretability which hinders human trust and thereby deployment to settings with high-stakes decisions. A line of interpretable methods approach this by discovering a small set of relevant concepts as subgraphs in the last GNN layer that together explain the prediction. This can yield oversimplified explanations, failing to explain the interaction between GNN layers. To address this oversight, we provide HELP (Hierarchical Explainable Latent Pooling), a novel, inherently interpretable graph pooling approach that reveals how concepts from different GNN layers compose to new ones in later steps. HELP is more than 1-WL expressive and is the first non-spectral, end-to-end-learnable, hierarchical graph pooling method that can learn to pool a variable number of arbitrary connected components. We empirically demonstrate that it performs on-par with standard GCNs and popular pooling methods in terms of accuracy while yielding explanations that are aligned with expert knowledge in the domains of chemistry and social networks. In addition to a qualitative analysis, we employ concept completeness scores as well as concept conformity, a novel metric to measure the noise in discovered concepts, quantitatively verifying that the discovered concepts are significantly easier to fully understand than those from previous work. Our work represents a first step towards an understanding of graph neural networks that goes beyond a set of concepts from the final layer and instead explains the complex interplay of concepts on different levels.
Mobility-on-Demand (MoD) services have been an active research topic in recent years. Many studies focused on developing control algorithms to supply efficient services. To cope with a large search space to solve the underlying vehicle routing problem, studies usually apply hard time-constraints on pick-up and drop-off while considering static network travel times to reduce computational time. As travel times in real street networks are dynamic and stochastic, assigned routes considered feasible by the control algorithm in one time step might become infeasible in the next. Since once assigned and confirmed, customers should still be part of the solution, damage control is necessary to counteract this effect. In this study, a detailed simulation framework for MoD services is coupled with a microscopic traffic simulation to create dynamic and stochastic travel times, and tested in a case study for Munich, Germany. Results showed that the combination of inaccurate travel time estimation and damage control strategies for infeasible routes deteriorates the performance of MoD services -- hailing and pooling -- significantly. Moreover, customers suffer from unreliable pick-up time and travel time estimations. Allowing re-assignments of initial vehicle schedules according to updated system states helps to restore system efficiency and reliability, but only to a minor extent.
Platooning connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) provide significant benefits in terms of traffic efficiency and fuel economy. However, most existing platooning systems assume the availability of pre-determined plans, which is not feasible in real-time scenarios. In this paper, we address this issue in time-dependent networks by formulating a Markov decision process at each junction, aiming to minimize travel time and fuel consumption. Initially, we analyze coordinated platooning without routing to explore the cooperation among controllers on an identical path. We propose two novel approaches based on approximate dynamic programming, offering suboptimal control in the context of a stochastic finite horizon problem. The results demonstrate the superiority of the approximation in the policy space. Furthermore, we investigate platooning in a network setting, where speed profiles and routes are determined simultaneously. To simplify the problem, we decouple the action space by prioritizing routing decisions based on travel time estimation. We subsequently employ the aforementioned policy approximation to determine speed profiles, considering essential parameters such as travel times. Our simulation results in SUMO indicate that our method yields better performance than conventional approaches, leading to potential travel cost savings of up to 40%. Additionally, we evaluate the resilience of our approach in dynamically changing networks, affirming its ability to maintain efficient platooning operations.
Given an origin (O), a destination (D), and a departure time (T), an Origin-Destination (OD) travel time oracle~(ODT-Oracle) returns an estimate of the time it takes to travel from O to D when departing at T. ODT-Oracles serve important purposes in map-based services. To enable the construction of such oracles, we provide a travel-time estimation (TTE) solution that leverages historical trajectories to estimate time-varying travel times for OD pairs. The problem is complicated by the fact that multiple historical trajectories with different travel times may connect an OD pair, while trajectories may vary from one another. To solve the problem, it is crucial to remove outlier trajectories when doing travel time estimation for future queries. We propose a novel, two-stage framework called Diffusion-based Origin-destination Travel Time Estimation (DOT), that solves the problem. First, DOT employs a conditioned Pixelated Trajectories (PiT) denoiser that enables building a diffusion-based PiT inference process by learning correlations between OD pairs and historical trajectories. Specifically, given an OD pair and a departure time, we aim to infer a PiT. Next, DOT encompasses a Masked Vision Transformer~(MViT) that effectively and efficiently estimates a travel time based on the inferred PiT. We report on extensive experiments on two real-world datasets that offer evidence that DOT is capable of outperforming baseline methods in terms of accuracy, scalability, and explainability.
This paper introduces a new transformer-based model for the problem of travel time estimation. The key feature of the proposed GCT-TTE architecture is the utilization of different data modalities capturing different properties of an input path. Along with the extensive study regarding the model configuration, we implemented and evaluated a sufficient number of actual baselines for path-aware and path-blind settings. The conducted computational experiments have confirmed the viability of our pipeline, which outperformed state-of-the-art models on both considered datasets. Additionally, GCT-TTE was deployed as a web service accessible for further experiments with user-defined routes.
Travel time estimation is a critical task, useful to many urban applications at the individual citizen and the stakeholder level. This paper presents a novel hybrid algorithm for travel time estimation that leverages historical and sparse real-time trajectory data. Given a path and a departure time we estimate the travel time taking into account the historical information, the real-time trajectory data and the correlations among different road segments. We detect similar road segments using historical trajectories, and use a latent representation to model the similarities. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach.