To address the limitations of medium- and long-term four-dimensional (4D) trajectory prediction models, this paper proposes a hybrid CNN-LSTM-attention-adaboost neural network model incorporating a multi-strategy improved snake-herd optimization (SO) algorithm. The model applies the Adaboost algorithm to divide multiple weak learners, and each submodel utilizes CNN to extract spatial features, LSTM to capture temporal features, and attention mechanism to capture global features comprehensively. The strong learner model, combined with multiple sub-models, then optimizes the hyperparameters of the prediction model through the natural selection behavior pattern simulated by SO. In this study, based on the real ADS-B data from Xi'an to Tianjin, the comparison experiments and ablation studies of multiple optimizers are carried out, and a comprehensive test and evaluation analysis is carried out. The results show that SO-CLA-adaboost outperforms traditional optimizers such as particle swarm, whale, and gray wolf in handling large-scale high-dimensional trajectory data. In addition, introducing the full-strategy collaborative improvement SO algorithm improves the model's prediction accuracy by 39.89%.
Trajectory prediction for multi-agent interaction scenarios is a crucial challenge. Most advanced methods model agent interactions by efficiently factorized attention based on the temporal and agent axes. However, this static and foward modeling lacks explicit interactive spatio-temporal coordination, capturing only obvious and immediate behavioral intentions. Alternatively, the modern trajectory prediction framework refines the successive predictions by a fixed-anchor selection strategy, which is difficult to adapt in different future environments. It is acknowledged that human drivers dynamically adjust initial driving decisions based on further assumptions about the intentions of surrounding vehicles. Motivated by human driving behaviors, this paper proposes ILNet, a multi-agent trajectory prediction method with Inverse Learning (IL) attention and Dynamic Anchor Selection (DAS) module. IL Attention employs an inverse learning paradigm to model interactions at neighboring moments, introducing proposed intentions to dynamically encode the spatio-temporal coordination of interactions, thereby enhancing the model's ability to capture complex interaction patterns. Then, the learnable DAS module is proposed to extract multiple trajectory change keypoints as anchors in parallel with almost no increase in parameters. Experimental results show that the ILNet achieves state-of-the-art performance on the INTERACTION and Argoverse motion forecasting datasets. Particularly, in challenged interaction scenarios, ILNet achieves higher accuracy and more multimodal distributions of trajectories over fewer parameters. Our codes are available at https://github.com/mjZeng11/ILNet.
With the emergence of powerful data-driven methods in human trajectory prediction (HTP), gaining a finer understanding of multi-agent interactions lies within hand's reach, with important implications in areas such as autonomous navigation and crowd modeling. This survey reviews some of the most recent advancements in deep learning-based multi-agent trajectory prediction, focusing on studies published between 2020 and 2024. We categorize the existing methods based on their architectural design, their input representations, and their overall prediction strategies, placing a particular emphasis on models evaluated using the ETH/UCY benchmark. Furthermore, we highlight key challenges and future research directions in the field of multi-agent HTP.
Trajectory prediction for surrounding agents is a challenging task in autonomous driving due to its inherent uncertainty and underlying multimodality. Unlike prevailing data-driven methods that primarily rely on supervised learning, in this paper, we introduce a novel Graph-oriented Inverse Reinforcement Learning (GoIRL) framework, which is an IRL-based predictor equipped with vectorized context representations. We develop a feature adaptor to effectively aggregate lane-graph features into grid space, enabling seamless integration with the maximum entropy IRL paradigm to infer the reward distribution and obtain the policy that can be sampled to induce multiple plausible plans. Furthermore, conditioned on the sampled plans, we implement a hierarchical parameterized trajectory generator with a refinement module to enhance prediction accuracy and a probability fusion strategy to boost prediction confidence. Extensive experimental results showcase our approach not only achieves state-of-the-art performance on the large-scale Argoverse & nuScenes motion forecasting benchmarks but also exhibits superior generalization abilities compared to existing supervised models.
The analysis and prediction of agent trajectories are crucial for decision-making processes in intelligent systems, with precise short-term trajectory forecasting being highly significant across a range of applications. Agents and their social interactions have been quantified and modeled by researchers from various perspectives; however, substantial limitations exist in the current work due to the inherent high uncertainty of agent intentions and the complex higher-order influences among neighboring groups. SocialMOIF is proposed to tackle these challenges, concentrating on the higher-order intention interactions among neighboring groups while reinforcing the primary role of first-order intention interactions between neighbors and the target agent. This method develops a multi-order intention fusion model to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of both direct and indirect intention information. Within SocialMOIF, a trajectory distribution approximator is designed to guide the trajectories toward values that align more closely with the actual data, thereby enhancing model interpretability. Furthermore, a global trajectory optimizer is introduced to enable more accurate and efficient parallel predictions. By incorporating a novel loss function that accounts for distance and direction during training, experimental results demonstrate that the model outperforms previous state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics in both dynamic and static datasets.
We present AnchorDP3, a diffusion policy framework for dual-arm robotic manipulation that achieves state-of-the-art performance in highly randomized environments. AnchorDP3 integrates three key innovations: (1) Simulator-Supervised Semantic Segmentation, using rendered ground truth to explicitly segment task-critical objects within the point cloud, which provides strong affordance priors; (2) Task-Conditioned Feature Encoders, lightweight modules processing augmented point clouds per task, enabling efficient multi-task learning through a shared diffusion-based action expert; (3) Affordance-Anchored Keypose Diffusion with Full State Supervision, replacing dense trajectory prediction with sparse, geometrically meaningful action anchors, i.e., keyposes such as pre-grasp pose, grasp pose directly anchored to affordances, drastically simplifying the prediction space; the action expert is forced to predict both robot joint angles and end-effector poses simultaneously, which exploits geometric consistency to accelerate convergence and boost accuracy. Trained on large-scale, procedurally generated simulation data, AnchorDP3 achieves a 98.7% average success rate in the RoboTwin benchmark across diverse tasks under extreme randomization of objects, clutter, table height, lighting, and backgrounds. This framework, when integrated with the RoboTwin real-to-sim pipeline, has the potential to enable fully autonomous generation of deployable visuomotor policies from only scene and instruction, totally eliminating human demonstrations from learning manipulation skills.
The Koopman theory is a powerful and effective modeling tool for converting nonlinear systems into linear representations, and flight trajectory prediction (FTP) is a complex nonlinear system. However, current models applying the Koopman theory to FTP tasks are not very effective, model interpretability is indeed an issue, and the Koopman operators are computationally intensive, resulting in long training times. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new modeling and control framework based on the HIPPO method, the Koopman theory, and state space equations from cybernetics: FlightKooba. Inspired by the idea of structural state space equations, FlightKooba directly constructs the Koopman operators from data. This makes the framework highly interpretable and significantly reduces the number of trainable parameters in the module, thereby greatly reducing training time. Experiments have demonstrated the superiority of the FlightKooba modeling method in terms of time and memory consumption (training time comparable to the Mamba module without using CUDA-level acceleration; memory reduced by more than 50% on most datasets, with a tenfold reduction in the number of parameters), essentially completing the FTP task. It provides a new method for the fast computation of the Koopman operators, opening up new possibilities for the combination of time series forecasting and control.
Accurate prediction of pedestrian trajectories is essential for applications in robotics and surveillance systems. While existing approaches primarily focus on social interactions between pedestrians, they often overlook the rich environmental context that significantly shapes human movement patterns. In this paper, we propose SceneAware, a novel framework that explicitly incorporates scene understanding to enhance trajectory prediction accuracy. Our method leverages a Vision Transformer~(ViT) scene encoder to process environmental context from static scene images, while Multi-modal Large Language Models~(MLLMs) generate binary walkability masks that distinguish between accessible and restricted areas during training. We combine a Transformer-based trajectory encoder with the ViT-based scene encoder, capturing both temporal dynamics and spatial constraints. The framework integrates collision penalty mechanisms that discourage predicted trajectories from violating physical boundaries, ensuring physically plausible predictions. SceneAware is implemented in both deterministic and stochastic variants. Comprehensive experiments on the ETH/UCY benchmark datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, with more than 50\% improvement over previous models. Our analysis based on different trajectory categories shows that the model performs consistently well across various types of pedestrian movement. This highlights the importance of using explicit scene information and shows that our scene-aware approach is both effective and reliable in generating accurate and physically plausible predictions. Code is available at: https://github.com/juho127/SceneAware.
Complex interactions among agents present a significant challenge for autonomous driving in real-world scenarios. Recently, a promising approach has emerged, which formulates the interactions of agents as a level-k game framework. It effectively decouples agent policies by hierarchical game levels. However, this framework ignores both the varying driving complexities among agents and the dynamic changes in agent states across game levels, instead treating them uniformly. Consequently, redundant and error-prone computations are introduced into this framework. To tackle the issue, this paper proposes a metric, termed as Trajectory Entropy, to reveal the game status of agents within the level-k game framework. The key insight stems from recognizing the inherit relationship between agent policy uncertainty and the associated driving complexity. Specifically, Trajectory Entropy extracts statistical signals representing uncertainty from the multimodality trajectory prediction results of agents in the game. Then, the signal-to-noise ratio of this signal is utilized to quantify the game status of agents. Based on the proposed Trajectory Entropy, we refine the current level-k game framework through a simple gating mechanism, significantly improving overall accuracy while reducing computational costs. Our method is evaluated on the Waymo and nuPlan datasets, in terms of trajectory prediction, open-loop and closed-loop planning tasks. The results demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our method, with precision improved by up to 19.89% for prediction and up to 16.48% for planning.
In this paper, we introduce DynaRoute, an adaptive joint optimization framework for dynamic vehicular networks that simultaneously addresses platoon control and data transmission through trajectory-aware routing and safety-constrained vehicle coordination. DynaRoute guarantees continuous vehicle movement via platoon safety control with optimizing transmission paths through real-time trajectory prediction and ensuring reliable data. Our solution achieves three key objectives: (1) maintaining platoon stability through accurate data transmission, (2) enabling adaptive routing based on vehicle movement patterns, and (3) enhancing overall intelligent transportation system performance. DynaRoute equires predefined traffic models and adapts to dynamic network conditions using local vehicle state information. We present comprehensive simulation results demonstrating that DynaRoute maintains control and transmission performance in multiple complex scenarios while significantly improving throughput and reliability compared to traditional approaches.
In this paper, we present a real-time egocentric trajectory prediction system for table tennis using event cameras. Unlike standard cameras, which suffer from high latency and motion blur at fast ball speeds, event cameras provide higher temporal resolution, allowing more frequent state updates, greater robustness to outliers, and accurate trajectory predictions using just a short time window after the opponent's impact. We collect a dataset of ping-pong game sequences, including 3D ground-truth trajectories of the ball, synchronized with sensor data from the Meta Project Aria glasses and event streams. Our system leverages foveated vision, using eye-gaze data from the glasses to process only events in the viewer's fovea. This biologically inspired approach improves ball detection performance and significantly reduces computational latency, as it efficiently allocates resources to the most perceptually relevant regions, achieving a reduction factor of 10.81 on the collected trajectories. Our detection pipeline has a worst-case total latency of 4.5 ms, including computation and perception - significantly lower than a frame-based 30 FPS system, which, in the worst case, takes 66 ms solely for perception. Finally, we fit a trajectory prediction model to the estimated states of the ball, enabling 3D trajectory forecasting in the future. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach to predict table tennis trajectories from an egocentric perspective using event cameras.
Asynchronous Federated Learning (AFL) enables distributed model training across multiple mobile devices, allowing each device to independently update its local model without waiting for others. However, device mobility introduces intermittent connectivity, which necessitates gradient sparsification and leads to model staleness, jointly affecting AFL convergence. This paper develops a theoretical model to characterize the interplay among sparsification, model staleness and mobility-induced contact patterns, and their joint impact on AFL convergence. Based on the analysis, we propose a mobility-aware dynamic sparsification (MADS) algorithm that optimizes the sparsification degree based on contact time and model staleness. Closed-form solutions are derived, showing that under low-speed conditions, MADS increases the sparsification degree to enhance convergence, while under high-speed conditions, it reduces the sparsification degree to guarantee reliable uploads within limited contact time. Experimental results validate the theoretical findings. Compared with the state-of-the-art benchmarks, the MADS algorithm increases the image classification accuracy on the CIFAR-10 dataset by 8.76% and reduces the average displacement error in the Argoverse trajectory prediction dataset by 9.46%.
Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.
Traffic simulators are widely used to study the operational efficiency of road infrastructure, but their rule-based approach limits their ability to mimic real-world driving behavior. Traffic intersections are critical components of the road infrastructure, both in terms of safety risk (nearly 28% of fatal crashes and 58% of nonfatal crashes happen at intersections) as well as the operational efficiency of a road corridor. This raises an important question: can we create a data-driven simulator that can mimic the macro- and micro-statistics of the driving behavior at a traffic intersection? Deep Generative Modeling-based trajectory prediction models provide a good starting point to model the complex dynamics of vehicles at an intersection. But they are not tested in a "live" micro-simulation scenario and are not evaluated on traffic engineering-related metrics. In this study, we propose traffic engineering-related metrics to evaluate generative trajectory prediction models and provide a simulation-in-the-loop pipeline to do so. We also provide a multi-headed self-attention-based trajectory prediction model that incorporates the signal information, which outperforms our previous models on the evaluation metrics.
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in integrating language-driven techniques into trajectory prediction. By leveraging their semantic and reasoning capabilities, LLMs are reshaping how autonomous systems perceive, model, and predict trajectories. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging field, categorizing recent work into five directions: (1) Trajectory prediction via language modeling paradigms, (2) Direct trajectory prediction with pretrained language models, (3) Language-guided scene understanding for trajectory prediction, (4) Language-driven data generation for trajectory prediction, (5) Language-based reasoning and interpretability for trajectory prediction. For each, we analyze representative methods, highlight core design choices, and identify open challenges. This survey bridges natural language processing and trajectory prediction, offering a unified perspective on how language can enrich trajectory prediction.
Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection (ESD) is a well-established technique for removing epithelial lesions. Predicting dissection trajectories in ESD videos offers significant potential for enhancing surgical skill training and simplifying the learning process, yet this area remains underexplored. While imitation learning has shown promise in acquiring skills from expert demonstrations, challenges persist in handling uncertain future movements, learning geometric symmetries, and generalizing to diverse surgical scenarios. To address these, we introduce a novel approach: Implicit Diffusion Policy with Equivariant Representations for Imitation Learning (iDPOE). Our method models expert behavior through a joint state action distribution, capturing the stochastic nature of dissection trajectories and enabling robust visual representation learning across various endoscopic views. By incorporating a diffusion model into policy learning, iDPOE ensures efficient training and sampling, leading to more accurate predictions and better generalization. Additionally, we enhance the model's ability to generalize to geometric symmetries by embedding equivariance into the learning process. To address state mismatches, we develop a forward-process guided action inference strategy for conditional sampling. Using an ESD video dataset of nearly 2000 clips, experimental results show that our approach surpasses state-of-the-art methods, both explicit and implicit, in trajectory prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of imitation learning to surgical skill development for dissection trajectory prediction.
Predicting accurate future trajectories of pedestrians is essential for autonomous systems but remains a challenging task due to the need for adaptability in different environments and domains. A common approach involves collecting scenario-specific data and performing fine-tuning via backpropagation. However, this process is often impractical on edge devices due to constrained computational resources. To address this challenge, we introduce TrajICL, an In-Context Learning (ICL) framework for pedestrian trajectory prediction that enables rapid adaptation without fine-tuning on the scenario-specific data. We propose a spatio-temporal similarity-based example selection (STES) method that selects relevant examples from previously observed trajectories within the same scene by identifying similar motion patterns at corresponding locations. To further refine this selection, we introduce prediction-guided example selection (PG-ES), which selects examples based on both the past trajectory and the predicted future trajectory, rather than relying solely on the past trajectory. This approach allows the model to account for long-term dynamics when selecting examples. Finally, instead of relying on small real-world datasets with limited scenario diversity, we train our model on a large-scale synthetic dataset to enhance its prediction ability by leveraging in-context examples. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TrajICL achieves remarkable adaptation across both in-domain and cross-domain scenarios, outperforming even fine-tuned approaches across multiple public benchmarks. The code will be released at https://fujiry0.github.io/TrajICL-project-page.
Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models for autonomous driving show promise but falter in unstructured corner case scenarios, largely due to a scarcity of targeted benchmarks. To address this, we introduce Impromptu VLA. Our core contribution is the Impromptu VLA Dataset: over 80,000 meticulously curated video clips, distilled from over 2M source clips sourced from 8 open-source large-scale datasets. This dataset is built upon our novel taxonomy of four challenging unstructured categories and features rich, planning-oriented question-answering annotations and action trajectories. Crucially, experiments demonstrate that VLAs trained with our dataset achieve substantial performance gains on established benchmarks--improving closed-loop NeuroNCAP scores and collision rates, and reaching near state-of-the-art L2 accuracy in open-loop nuScenes trajectory prediction. Furthermore, our Q&A suite serves as an effective diagnostic, revealing clear VLM improvements in perception, prediction, and planning. Our code, data and models are available at https://github.com/ahydchh/Impromptu-VLA.
Controllable trajectory generation guided by high-level semantic decisions, termed meta-actions, is crucial for autonomous driving systems. A significant limitation of existing frameworks is their reliance on invariant meta-actions assigned over fixed future time intervals, causing temporal misalignment with the actual behavior trajectories. This misalignment leads to irrelevant associations between the prescribed meta-actions and the resulting trajectories, disrupting task coherence and limiting model performance. To address this challenge, we introduce Autoregressive Meta-Actions, an approach integrated into autoregressive trajectory generation frameworks that provides a unified and precise definition for meta-action-conditioned trajectory prediction. Specifically, We decompose traditional long-interval meta-actions into frame-level meta-actions, enabling a sequential interplay between autoregressive meta-action prediction and meta-action-conditioned trajectory generation. This decomposition ensures strict alignment between each trajectory segment and its corresponding meta-action, achieving a consistent and unified task formulation across the entire trajectory span and significantly reducing complexity. Moreover, we propose a staged pre-training process to decouple the learning of basic motion dynamics from the integration of high-level decision control, which offers flexibility, stability, and modularity. Experimental results validate our framework's effectiveness, demonstrating improved trajectory adaptivity and responsiveness to dynamic decision-making scenarios. We provide the video document and dataset, which are available at https://arma-traj.github.io/.
Predicting the trajectories of vehicles is crucial for the development of autonomous driving (AD) systems, particularly in complex and dynamic traffic environments. In this study, we introduce HiT (Human-like Trajectory Prediction), a novel model designed to enhance trajectory prediction by incorporating behavior-aware modules and dynamic centrality measures. Unlike traditional methods that primarily rely on static graph structures, HiT leverages a dynamic framework that accounts for both direct and indirect interactions among traffic participants. This allows the model to capture the subtle yet significant influences of surrounding vehicles, enabling more accurate and human-like predictions. To evaluate HiT's performance, we conducted extensive experiments using diverse and challenging real-world datasets, including NGSIM, HighD, RounD, ApolloScape, and MoCAD++. The results demonstrate that HiT consistently outperforms other top models across multiple metrics, particularly excelling in scenarios involving aggressive driving behaviors. This research presents a significant step forward in trajectory prediction, offering a more reliable and interpretable approach for enhancing the safety and efficiency of fully autonomous driving systems.