SDForger is a flexible and efficient framework for generating high-quality multivariate time series using LLMs. Leveraging a compact data representation, SDForger provides synthetic time series generation from a few samples and low-computation fine-tuning of any autoregressive LLM. Specifically, the framework transforms univariate and multivariate signals into tabular embeddings, which are then encoded into text and used to fine-tune the LLM. At inference, new textual embeddings are sampled and decoded into synthetic time series that retain the original data's statistical properties and temporal dynamics. Across a diverse range of datasets, SDForger outperforms existing generative models in many scenarios, both in similarity-based evaluations and downstream forecasting tasks. By enabling textual conditioning in the generation process, SDForger paves the way for multimodal modeling and the streamlined integration of time series with textual information. SDForger source code will be open-sourced soon.
Recent advances in time series generation have shown promise, yet controlling properties in generated sequences remains challenging. Time Series Editing (TSE) - making precise modifications while preserving temporal coherence - consider both point-level constraints and segment-level controls that current methods struggle to provide. We introduce the CocktailEdit framework to enable simultaneous, flexible control across different types of constraints. This framework combines two key mechanisms: a confidence-weighted anchor control for point-wise constraints and a classifier-based control for managing statistical properties such as sums and averages over segments. Our methods achieve precise local control during the denoising inference stage while maintaining temporal coherence and integrating seamlessly, with any conditionally trained diffusion-based time series models. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and models demonstrate its effectiveness. Our work bridges the gap between pure generative modeling and real-world time series editing needs, offering a flexible solution for human-in-the-loop time series generation and editing. The code and demo are provided for validation.
Accurately modeling time-continuous stochastic processes from irregular observations remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we leverage ideas from generative modeling of image data to push the boundary of time series generation. For this, we find new generators of SDEs and jump processes, inspired by trajectory flow matching, that have the marginal distributions of the time series of interest. Specifically, we can handle discontinuities of the underlying processes by parameterizing the jump kernel densities by scaled Gaussians that allow for closed form formulas of the corresponding Kullback-Leibler divergence in the loss. Unlike most other approaches, we are able to handle irregularly sampled time series.
Discrete Token Modeling (DTM), which employs vector quantization techniques, has demonstrated remarkable success in modeling non-natural language modalities, particularly in time series generation. While our prior work SDformer established the first DTM-based framework to achieve state-of-the-art performance in this domain, two critical limitations persist in existing DTM approaches: 1) their inability to capture multi-scale temporal patterns inherent to complex time series data, and 2) the absence of theoretical foundations to guide model optimization. To address these challenges, we proposes a novel multi-scale DTM-based time series generation method, called Multi-Scale Discrete Transformer (MSDformer). MSDformer employs a multi-scale time series tokenizer to learn discrete token representations at multiple scales, which jointly characterize the complex nature of time series data. Subsequently, MSDformer applies a multi-scale autoregressive token modeling technique to capture the multi-scale patterns of time series within the discrete latent space. Theoretically, we validate the effectiveness of the DTM method and the rationality of MSDformer through the rate-distortion theorem. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that MSDformer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate that incorporating multi-scale information and modeling multi-scale patterns can substantially enhance the quality of generated time series in DTM-based approaches. The code will be released upon acceptance.
The widespread adoption of mobile sensors has the potential to provide massive and heterogeneous time series data, driving Artificial Intelligence applications in mHealth. However, data collection remains limited due to stringent ethical regulations, privacy concerns, and other constraints, hindering progress in the field. Synthetic data generation, particularly through Generative Adversarial Networks and Diffusion Models, has emerged as a promising solution to address both data scarcity and privacy issues. Yet, these models are often limited to short-term, unimodal signal patterns. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art generative models for time series synthesis, with a focus on their ability to jointly handle multi-modality, long-range dependencies, and conditional generation-key challenges in the mHealth domain. To ensure a fair comparison, we introduce a novel evaluation framework designed to measure both the intrinsic quality of synthetic data and its utility in downstream predictive tasks. Our findings reveal critical limitations in the existing approaches, particularly in maintaining cross-modal consistency, preserving temporal coherence, and ensuring robust performance in train-on-synthetic, test-on-real, and data augmentation scenarios. Finally, we present our future research directions to enhance synthetic time series generation and improve the applicability of generative models in mHealth.
This paper presents a modified model predictive control (MPC) framework for real-time power system operation. The framework incorporates a diffusion model tailored for time series generation to enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting module used in the system operation. In the absence of explicit state transition law, a model-identification procedure is leveraged to derive the system dynamics, thereby eliminating a barrier when applying MPC to a renewables-dominated power system. Case study results on an industry park system and the IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that using the diffusion model to augment the training dataset significantly improves load-forecasting accuracy, and the inferred system dynamics are applicable to the real-time grid operation with solar and wind.
Synthetic Electronic Health Record (EHR) time-series generation is crucial for advancing clinical machine learning models, as it helps address data scarcity by providing more training data. However, most existing approaches focus primarily on replicating statistical distributions and temporal dependencies of real-world data. We argue that fidelity to observed data alone does not guarantee better model performance, as common patterns may dominate, limiting the representation of rare but important conditions. This highlights the need for generate synthetic samples to improve performance of specific clinical models to fulfill their target outcomes. To address this, we propose TarDiff, a novel target-oriented diffusion framework that integrates task-specific influence guidance into the synthetic data generation process. Unlike conventional approaches that mimic training data distributions, TarDiff optimizes synthetic samples by quantifying their expected contribution to improving downstream model performance through influence functions. Specifically, we measure the reduction in task-specific loss induced by synthetic samples and embed this influence gradient into the reverse diffusion process, thereby steering the generation towards utility-optimized data. Evaluated on six publicly available EHR datasets, TarDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods by up to 20.4% in AUPRC and 18.4% in AUROC. Our results demonstrate that TarDiff not only preserves temporal fidelity but also enhances downstream model performance, offering a robust solution to data scarcity and class imbalance in healthcare analytics.
Text-to-Time Series generation holds significant potential to address challenges such as data sparsity, imbalance, and limited availability of multimodal time series datasets across domains. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in Text-to-X (e.g., vision and audio data) generation, their use in time series generation remains in its nascent stages. Existing approaches face two critical limitations: (1) the lack of systematic exploration of general-proposed time series captions, which are often domain-specific and struggle with generalization; and (2) the inability to generate time series of arbitrary lengths, limiting their applicability to real-world scenarios. In this work, we first categorize time series captions into three levels: point-level, fragment-level, and instance-level. Additionally, we introduce a new fragment-level dataset containing over 600,000 high-resolution time series-text pairs. Second, we propose Text-to-Series (T2S), a diffusion-based framework that bridges the gap between natural language and time series in a domain-agnostic manner. T2S employs a length-adaptive variational autoencoder to encode time series of varying lengths into consistent latent embeddings. On top of that, T2S effectively aligns textual representations with latent embeddings by utilizing Flow Matching and employing Diffusion Transformer as the denoiser. We train T2S in an interleaved paradigm across multiple lengths, allowing it to generate sequences of any desired length. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that T2S achieves state-of-the-art performance across 13 datasets spanning 12 domains.
Tabular data generation has recently attracted a growing interest due to its different application scenarios. However, generating time series of tabular data, where each element of the series depends on the others, remains a largely unexplored domain. This gap is probably due to the difficulty of jointly solving different problems, the main of which are the heterogeneity of tabular data (a problem common to non-time-dependent approaches) and the variable length of a time series. In this paper, we propose a Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) based approach for tabular data series generation. Inspired by the recent success of DiTs in image and video generation, we extend this framework to deal with heterogeneous data and variable-length sequences. Using extensive experiments on six datasets, we show that the proposed approach outperforms previous work by a large margin.
Recent studies suggest utilizing generative models instead of traditional auto-regressive algorithms for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. These non-auto-regressive approaches involving different generative methods, including GAN, Diffusion, and Flow Matching for time series, have empirically demonstrated high-quality generation capability and accuracy. However, we still lack an appropriate understanding of how it processes approximation and generalization. This paper presents the first theoretical framework from the perspective of flow-based generative models to relieve the knowledge of limitations. In particular, we provide our insights with strict guarantees from three perspectives: $\textbf{Approximation}$, $\textbf{Generalization}$ and $\textbf{Efficiency}$. In detail, our analysis achieves the contributions as follows: $\bullet$ By assuming a general data model, the fitting of the flow-based generative models is confirmed to converge to arbitrary error under the universal approximation of Diffusion Transformer (DiT). $\bullet$ Introducing a polynomial-based regularization for flow matching, the generalization error thus be bounded since the generalization of polynomial approximation. $\bullet$ The sampling for generation is considered as an optimization process, we demonstrate its fast convergence with updating standard first-order gradient descent of some objective.
Generating temporal data under constraints is critical for forecasting, imputation, and synthesis. These datasets often include auxiliary conditions that influence the values within the time series signal. Existing methods face three key challenges: (1) they fail to adapt to conditions at inference time; (2) they rely on sequential generation, which slows the generation speed; and (3) they inefficiently encode categorical features, leading to increased sparsity and input sizes. We propose WaveStitch, a novel method that addresses these challenges by leveraging denoising diffusion probabilistic models to efficiently generate accurate temporal data under given auxiliary constraints. WaveStitch overcomes these limitations by: (1) modeling interactions between constraints and signals to generalize to new, unseen conditions; (2) enabling the parallel synthesis of sequential segments with a novel "stitching" mechanism to enforce coherence across segments; and (3) encoding categorical features as compact periodic signals while preserving temporal patterns. Extensive evaluations across diverse datasets highlight WaveStitch's ability to generalize to unseen conditions during inference, achieving up to a 10x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, WaveStitch generates data up to 460x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining comparable accuracy. By efficiently encoding categorical features, WaveStitch provides a robust and efficient solution for temporal data generation. Our code is open-sourced: https://github.com/adis98/HierarchicalTS
The generation of synthetic financial data is a critical technology in the financial domain, addressing challenges posed by limited data availability. Traditionally, statistical models have been employed to generate synthetic data. However, these models fail to capture the stylized facts commonly observed in financial data, limiting their practical applicability. Recently, machine learning models have been introduced to address the limitations of statistical models; however, controlling synthetic data generation remains challenging. We propose CoFinDiff (Controllable Financial Diffusion model), a synthetic financial data generation model based on conditional diffusion models that accept conditions about the synthetic time series. By incorporating conditions derived from price data into the conditional diffusion model via cross-attention, CoFinDiff learns the relationships between the conditions and the data, generating synthetic data that align with arbitrary conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that: (i) synthetic data generated by CoFinDiff capture stylized facts; (ii) the generated data accurately meet specified conditions for trends and volatility; (iii) the diversity of the generated data surpasses that of the baseline models; and (iv) models trained on CoFinDiff-generated data achieve improved performance in deep hedging task.
We investigate the generative capabilities of the Schr\"odinger Bridge (SB) approach for time series. The SB framework formulates time series synthesis as an entropic optimal interpolation transport problem between a reference probability measure on path space and a target joint distribution. This results in a stochastic differential equation over a finite horizon that accurately captures the temporal dynamics of the target time series. While the SB approach has been largely explored in fields like image generation, there is a scarcity of studies for its application to time series. In this work, we bridge this gap by conducting a comprehensive evaluation of the SB method's robustness and generative performance. We benchmark it against state-of-the-art (SOTA) time series generation methods across diverse datasets, assessing its strengths, limitations, and capacity to model complex temporal dependencies. Our results offer valuable insights into the SB framework's potential as a versatile and robust tool for time series generation.
Time-series Generation (TSG) is a prominent research area with broad applications in simulations, data augmentation, and counterfactual analysis. While existing methods have shown promise in unconditional single-domain TSG, real-world applications demand for cross-domain approaches capable of controlled generation tailored to domain-specific constraints and instance-level requirements. In this paper, we argue that text can provide semantic insights, domain information and instance-specific temporal patterns, to guide and improve TSG. We introduce ``Text-Controlled TSG'', a task focused on generating realistic time series by incorporating textual descriptions. To address data scarcity in this setting, we propose a novel LLM-based Multi-Agent framework that synthesizes diverse, realistic text-to-TS datasets. Furthermore, we introduce BRIDGE, a hybrid text-controlled TSG framework that integrates semantic prototypes with text description for supporting domain-level guidance. This approach achieves state-of-the-art generation fidelity on 11 of 12 datasets, and improves controllability by up to 12% on MSE and 6% MAE compared to no text input generation, highlighting its potential for generating tailored time-series data.
In this paper, we introduce Neural Mapper for Vector Quantized Time Series Generator (NM-VQTSG), a novel method aimed at addressing fidelity challenges in vector quantized (VQ) time series generation. VQ-based methods, such as TimeVQVAE, have demonstrated success in generating time series but are hindered by two critical bottlenecks: information loss during compression into discrete latent spaces and deviations in the learned prior distribution from the ground truth distribution. These challenges result in synthetic time series with compromised fidelity and distributional accuracy. To overcome these limitations, NM-VQTSG leverages a U-Net-based neural mapping model to bridge the distributional gap between synthetic and ground truth time series. To be more specific, the model refines synthetic data by addressing artifacts introduced during generation, effectively aligning the distributions of synthetic and real data. Importantly, NM-VQTSG can be used for synthetic time series generated by any VQ-based generative method. We evaluate NM-VQTSG across diverse datasets from the UCR Time Series Classification archive, demonstrating its capability to consistently enhance fidelity in both unconditional and conditional generation tasks. The improvements are evidenced by significant improvements in FID, IS, and conditional FID, additionally backed up by visual inspection in a data space and a latent space. Our findings establish NM-VQTSG as a new method to improve the quality of synthetic time series. Our implementation is available on \url{https://github.com/ML4ITS/TimeVQVAE}.
Recent breakthroughs in large-scale generative modeling have demonstrated the potential of foundation models in domains such as natural language, computer vision, and protein structure prediction. However, their application in the energy and smart grid sector remains limited due to the scarcity and heterogeneity of high-quality data. In this work, we propose a method for creating high-fidelity electricity consumption time series data for rare and unseen context variables (e.g. location, building type, photovoltaics). Our approach, Context Encoding and Normalizing Time Series Generation, or CENTS, includes three key innovations: (i) A context normalization approach that enables inverse transformation for time series context variables unseen during training, (ii) a novel context encoder to condition any state-of-the-art time-series generator on arbitrary numbers and combinations of context variables, (iii) a framework for training this context encoder jointly with a time-series generator using an auxiliary context classification loss designed to increase expressivity of context embeddings and improve model performance. We further provide a comprehensive overview of different evaluation metrics for generative time series models. Our results highlight the efficacy of the proposed method in generating realistic household-level electricity consumption data, paving the way for training larger foundation models in the energy domain on synthetic as well as real-world data.
The research related to digital twins has been increasing in recent years. Besides the mirroring of the physical word into the digital, there is the need of providing services related to the data collected and transferred to the virtual world. One of these services is the forecasting of physical part future behavior, that could lead to applications, like preventing harmful events or designing improvements to get better performance. One strategy used to predict any system operation it is the use of time series models like ARIMA or LSTM, and improvements were implemented using these algorithms. Recently, deep learning techniques based on generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been proposed to create time series and the use of LSTM has gained more relevance in time series forecasting, but both have limitations that restrict the forecasting results. Another issue found in the literature is the challenge of handling multivariate environments/applications in time series generation. Therefore, new methods need to be studied in order to fill these gaps and, consequently, provide better resources for creating useful digital twins. In this proposal, it is going to be studied the integration of a BiLSTM layer with a time series obtained by GAN in order to improve the forecasting of all the features provided by the dataset in terms of accuracy and, consequently, improving behaviour prediction.
Time series generation models are crucial for applications like data augmentation and privacy preservation. Most existing time series generation models are typically designed to generate data from one specified domain. While leveraging data from other domain for better generalization is proved to work in other application areas, this approach remains challenging for time series modeling due to the large divergence in patterns among different real world time series categories. In this paper, we propose a multi-domain time series diffusion model with domain prompts, named TimeDP. In TimeDP, we utilize a time series semantic prototype module which defines time series prototypes to represent time series basis, each prototype vector serving as "word" representing some elementary time series feature. A prototype assignment module is applied to extract the extract domain specific prototype weights, for learning domain prompts as generation condition. During sampling, we extract "domain prompt" with few-shot samples from the target domain and use the domain prompts as condition to generate time series samples. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines to provide the state-of-the-art in-domain generation quality and strong unseen domain generation capability.
Data augmentation can significantly enhance the performance of machine learning tasks by addressing data scarcity and improving generalization. However, generating time series data presents unique challenges. A model must not only learn a probability distribution that reflects the real data distribution but also capture the conditional distribution at each time step to preserve the inherent temporal dependencies. To address these challenges, we introduce AVATAR, a framework that combines Adversarial Autoencoders (AAE) with Autoregressive Learning to achieve both objectives. Specifically, our technique integrates the autoencoder with a supervisor and introduces a novel supervised loss to assist the decoder in learning the temporal dynamics of time series data. Additionally, we propose another innovative loss function, termed distribution loss, to guide the encoder in more efficiently aligning the aggregated posterior of the autoencoder's latent representation with a prior Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, our framework employs a joint training mechanism to simultaneously train all networks using a combined loss, thereby fulfilling the dual objectives of time series generation. We evaluate our technique across a variety of time series datasets with diverse characteristics. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvements in both the quality and practical utility of the generated data, as assessed by various qualitative and quantitative metrics.
Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.