Stock price prediction is vital for investment decisions and risk management, yet remains challenging due to markets' nonlinear dynamics and time-varying inter-stock correlations. Traditional static-correlation models fail to capture evolving stock relationships. To address this, we propose a Differential Graph Transformer (DGT) framework for dynamic relationship modeling and price prediction. Our DGT integrates sequential graph structure changes into multi-head self-attention via a differential graph mechanism, adaptively preserving high-value connections while suppressing noise. Causal temporal attention captures global/local dependencies in price sequences. We further evaluate correlation metrics (Pearson, Mutual Information, Spearman, Kendall's Tau) across global/local/dual scopes as spatial-attention priors. Using 10 years of S&P 500 closing prices (z-score normalized; 64-day sliding windows), DGT with spatial priors outperformed GRU baselines (RMSE: 0.24 vs. 0.87). Kendall's Tau global matrices yielded optimal results (MAE: 0.11). K-means clustering revealed "high-volatility growth" and "defensive blue-chip" stocks, with the latter showing lower errors (RMSE: 0.13) due to stable correlations. Kendall's Tau and Mutual Information excelled in volatile sectors. This study innovatively combines differential graph structures with Transformers, validating dynamic relationship modeling and identifying optimal correlation metrics/scopes. Clustering analysis supports tailored quantitative strategies. Our framework advances financial time-series prediction through dynamic modeling and cross-asset interaction analysis.
High-frequency stock price prediction is challenging due to non-stationarity, noise, and volatility. To tackle these issues, we propose the Hybrid Attentive Ensemble Learning Transformer (HAELT), a deep learning framework combining a ResNet-based noise-mitigation module, temporal self-attention for dynamic focus on relevant history, and a hybrid LSTM-Transformer core that captures both local and long-range dependencies. These components are adaptively ensembled based on recent performance. Evaluated on hourly Apple Inc. (AAPL) data from Jan 2024 to May 2025, HAELT achieves the highest F1-Score on the test set, effectively identifying both upward and downward price movements. This demonstrates HAELT's potential for robust, practical financial forecasting and algorithmic trading.
Financial literacy is increasingly dependent on the ability to interpret complex financial data and utilize advanced forecasting tools. In this context, this study proposes a novel approach that combines transformer-based time series models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to enhance the interpretability and accuracy of stock price predictions. The analysis focuses on the daily stock prices of the five highest-volume banks listed in the BIST100 index, along with XBANK and XU100 indices, covering the period from January 2015 to March 2025. Models including DLinear, LTSNet, Vanilla Transformer, and Time Series Transformer are employed, with input features enriched by technical indicators. SHAP and LIME techniques are used to provide transparency into the influence of individual features on model outputs. The results demonstrate the strong predictive capabilities of transformer models and highlight the potential of interpretable machine learning to empower individuals in making informed investment decisions and actively engaging in financial markets.
This paper proposes a hybrid framework combining LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks with LightGBM and CatBoost for stock price prediction. The framework processes time-series financial data and evaluates performance using seven models: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), vanilla LSTM, XGBoost, LightGBM, and standard Neural Networks (NNs). Key metrics, including MAE, R-squared, MSE, and RMSE, are used to establish benchmarks across different time scales. Building on these benchmarks, we develop an ensemble model that combines the strengths of sequential and tree-based approaches. Experimental results show that the proposed framework improves accuracy by 10 to 15 percent compared to individual models and reduces error during market changes. This study highlights the potential of ensemble methods for financial forecasting and provides a flexible design for integrating new machine learning techniques.
Stock price prediction remains a complex and high-stakes task in financial analysis, traditionally addressed using statistical models or, more recently, language models. In this work, we introduce VISTA (Vision-Language Inference for Stock Time-series Analysis), a novel, training-free framework that leverages Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for multi-modal stock forecasting. VISTA prompts a VLM with both textual representations of historical stock prices and their corresponding line charts to predict future price values. By combining numerical and visual modalities in a zero-shot setting and using carefully designed chain-of-thought prompts, VISTA captures complementary patterns that unimodal approaches often miss. We benchmark VISTA against standard baselines, including ARIMA and text-only LLM-based prompting methods. Experimental results show that VISTA outperforms these baselines by up to 89.83%, demonstrating the effectiveness of multi-modal inference for stock time-series analysis and highlighting the potential of VLMs in financial forecasting tasks without requiring task-specific training.
Stock price prediction is a critical area of financial forecasting, traditionally approached by training models using the historical price data of individual stocks. While these models effectively capture single-stock patterns, they fail to leverage potential correlations among stock trends, which could improve predictive performance. Current single-stock learning methods are thus limited in their ability to provide a broader understanding of price dynamics across multiple stocks. To address this, we propose a novel method that merges local patterns into a global understanding through cross-stock pattern integration. Our strategy is inspired by Federated Learning (FL), a paradigm designed for decentralized model training. FL enables collaborative learning across distributed datasets without sharing raw data, facilitating the aggregation of global insights while preserving data privacy. In our adaptation, we train models on individual stock data and iteratively merge them to create a unified global model. This global model is subsequently fine-tuned on specific stock data to retain local relevance. The proposed strategy enables parallel training of individual stock models, facilitating efficient utilization of computational resources and reducing overall training time. We conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed method, demonstrating that it outperforms benchmark models and enhances the predictive capabilities of state-of-the-art approaches. Our results highlight the efficacy of Cross-Stock Trend Integration (CSTI) in advancing stock price prediction, offering a robust alternative to traditional single-stock learning methodologies.
Financial sentiment analysis (FSA) presents unique challenges to LLMs that surpass those in typical sentiment analysis due to the nuanced language used in financial contexts. The prowess of these models is often undermined by the inherent subjectivity of sentiment classifications in existing benchmark datasets like Financial Phrasebank. These datasets typically feature undefined sentiment classes that reflect the highly individualized perspectives of annotators, leading to significant variability in annotations. This variability results in an unfair expectation for LLMs during benchmarking, where they are tasked to conjecture the subjective viewpoints of human annotators without sufficient context. In this paper, we introduce the Annotators' Instruction Assisted Prompt, a novel evaluation prompt designed to redefine the task definition of FSA for LLMs. By integrating detailed task instructions originally intended for human annotators into the LLMs' prompt framework, AIAP aims to standardize the understanding of sentiment across both human and machine interpretations, providing a fair and context-rich foundation for sentiment analysis. We utilize a new dataset, WSBS, derived from the WallStreetBets subreddit to demonstrate how AIAP significantly enhances LLM performance by aligning machine operations with the refined task definitions. Experimental results demonstrate that AIAP enhances LLM performance significantly, with improvements up to 9.08. This context-aware approach not only yields incremental gains in performance but also introduces an innovative sentiment-indexing method utilizing model confidence scores. This method enhances stock price prediction models and extracts more value from the financial sentiment analysis, underscoring the significance of WSB as a critical source of financial text. Our research offers insights into both improving FSA through better evaluation methods.
Recent advancements in information availability and computational capabilities have transformed the analysis of annual reports, integrating traditional financial metrics with insights from textual data. To extract valuable insights from this wealth of textual data, automated review processes, such as topic modeling, are crucial. This study examines the effectiveness of BERTopic, a state-of-the-art topic model relying on contextual embeddings, for analyzing Item 7 and Item 7A of 10-K filings from S&P 500 companies (2016-2022). Moreover, we introduce FinTextSim, a finetuned sentence-transformer model optimized for clustering and semantic search in financial contexts. Compared to all-MiniLM-L6-v2, the most widely used sentence-transformer, FinTextSim increases intratopic similarity by 81% and reduces intertopic similarity by 100%, significantly enhancing organizational clarity. We assess BERTopic's performance using embeddings from both FinTextSim and all-MiniLM-L6-v2. Our findings reveal that BERTopic only forms clear and distinct economic topic clusters when paired with FinTextSim's embeddings. Without FinTextSim, BERTopic struggles with misclassification and overlapping topics. Thus, FinTextSim is pivotal for advancing financial text analysis. FinTextSim's enhanced contextual embeddings, tailored for the financial domain, elevate the quality of future research and financial information. This improved quality of financial information will enable stakeholders to gain a competitive advantage, streamlining resource allocation and decision-making processes. Moreover, the improved insights have the potential to leverage business valuation and stock price prediction models.
This research proposes a cutting-edge ensemble deep learning framework for stock price prediction by combining three advanced neural network architectures: The particular areas of interest for the research include but are not limited to: Variational Autoencoder (VAE), Transformer, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The presented framework is aimed to substantially utilize the advantages of each model which would allow for achieving the identification of both linear and non-linear relations in stock price movements. To improve the accuracy of its predictions it uses rich set of technical indicators and it scales its predictors based on the current market situation. By trying out the framework on several stock data sets, and benchmarking the results against single models and conventional forecasting, the ensemble method exhibits consistently high accuracy and reliability. The VAE is able to learn linear representation on high-dimensional data while the Transformer outstandingly perform in recognizing long-term patterns on the stock price data. LSTM, based on its characteristics of being a model that can deal with sequences, brings additional improvements to the given framework, especially regarding temporal dynamics and fluctuations. Combined, these components provide exceptional directional performance and a very small disparity in the predicted results. The present solution has given a probable concept that can handle the inherent problem of stock price prediction with high reliability and scalability. Compared to the performance of individual proposals based on the neural network, as well as classical methods, the proposed ensemble framework demonstrates the advantages of combining different architectures. It has a very important application in algorithmic trading, risk analysis, and control and decision-making for finance professions and scholars.
In this work, we present the first open leaderboard for evaluating Korean large language models focused on finance. Operated for about eight weeks, the leaderboard evaluated 1,119 submissions on a closed benchmark covering five MCQA categories: finance and accounting, stock price prediction, domestic company analysis, financial markets, and financial agent tasks and one open-ended qa task. Building on insights from these evaluations, we release an open instruction dataset of 80k instances and summarize widely used training strategies observed among top-performing models. Finally, we introduce Won, a fully open and transparent LLM built using these best practices. We hope our contributions help advance the development of better and safer financial LLMs for Korean and other languages.
Classical asset price forecasting methods primarily rely on numerical data, such as price time series, trading volumes, limit order book data, and technical analysis indicators. However, the news flow plays a significant role in price formation, making the development of multimodal approaches that combine textual and numerical data for improved prediction accuracy highly relevant. This paper addresses the problem of forecasting financial asset prices using the multimodal approach that combines candlestick time series and textual news flow data. A unique dataset was collected for the study, which includes time series for 176 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange and 79,555 financial news articles in Russian. For processing textual data, pre-trained models RuBERT and Vikhr-Qwen2.5-0.5b-Instruct (a large language model) were used, while time series and vectorized text data were processed using an LSTM recurrent neural network. The experiments compared models based on a single modality (time series only) and two modalities, as well as various methods for aggregating text vector representations. Prediction quality was estimated using two key metrics: Accuracy (direction of price movement prediction: up or down) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which measures the deviation of the predicted price from the true price. The experiments showed that incorporating textual modality reduced the MAPE value by 55%. The resulting multimodal dataset holds value for the further adaptation of language models in the financial sector. Future research directions include optimizing textual modality parameters, such as the time window, sentiment, and chronological order of news messages.
This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and attention-based models. These models are assessed for their ability to capture complex temporal dependencies inherent in stock market data. Our findings show that attention-based models outperform other architectures, achieving the highest accuracy by capturing both short and long-term dependencies. This study contributes valuable insights into AI-driven financial forecasting, offering practical guidance for developing more accurate and efficient trading systems.
This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.
Foundation Models (FMs) have improved time series forecasting in various sectors, such as finance, but their vulnerability to input disturbances can hinder their adoption by stakeholders, such as investors and analysts. To address this, we propose a causally grounded rating framework to study the robustness of Foundational Models for Time Series (FMTS) with respect to input perturbations. We evaluate our approach to the stock price prediction problem, a well-studied problem with easily accessible public data, evaluating six state-of-the-art (some multi-modal) FMTS across six prominent stocks spanning three industries. The ratings proposed by our framework effectively assess the robustness of FMTS and also offer actionable insights for model selection and deployment. Within the scope of our study, we find that (1) multi-modal FMTS exhibit better robustness and accuracy compared to their uni-modal versions and, (2) FMTS pre-trained on time series forecasting task exhibit better robustness and forecasting accuracy compared to general-purpose FMTS pre-trained across diverse settings. Further, to validate our framework's usability, we conduct a user study showcasing FMTS prediction errors along with our computed ratings. The study confirmed that our ratings reduced the difficulty for users in comparing the robustness of different systems.
The research paper empirically investigates several machine learning algorithms to forecast stock prices depending on insider trading information. Insider trading offers special insights into market sentiment, pointing to upcoming changes in stock prices. This study examines the effectiveness of algorithms like decision trees, random forests, support vector machines (SVM) with different kernels, and K-Means Clustering using a dataset of Tesla stock transactions. Examining past data from April 2020 to March 2023, this study focuses on how well these algorithms identify trends and forecast stock price fluctuations. The paper uses Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and feature importance analysis to optimize the feature set and, hence, increase prediction accuracy. While it requires substantially greater processing time than other models, SVM with the Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel displays the best accuracy. This paper highlights the trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency in machine learning models and proposes the possibility of pooling multiple data sources to raise prediction performance. The results of this paper aim to help financial analysts and investors in choosing strong algorithms to optimize investment strategies.
In an era where financial markets are heavily influenced by many static and dynamic factors, it has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction. This paper explores a multimodal machine learning approach for stock price prediction by combining data from diverse sources, including traditional financial metrics, tweets, and news articles. We capture real-time market dynamics and investor mood through sentiment analysis on these textual data using both ChatGPT-4o and FinBERT models. We look at how these integrated data streams augment predictions made with a standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM model) to illustrate the extent of performance gains. Our study's results indicate that incorporating the mentioned data sources considerably increases the forecast effectiveness of the reference model by up to 5%. We also provide insights into the individual and combined predictive capacities of these modalities, highlighting the substantial impact of incorporating sentiment analysis from tweets and news articles. This research offers a systematic and effective framework for applying multimodal data analytics techniques in financial time series forecasting that provides a new view for investors to leverage data for decision-making.
This paper investigates the application of Transformer-based neural networks to stock price forecasting, with a special focus on the intersection of machine learning techniques and financial market analysis. The evolution of Transformer models, from their inception to their adaptation for time series analysis in financial contexts, is reviewed and discussed. Central to our study is the exploration of the Hidformer model, which is currently recognized for its promising performance in time series prediction. The primary aim of this paper is to determine whether Hidformer will also prove itself in the task of stock price prediction. This slightly modified model serves as the framework for our experiments, integrating the principles of technical analysis with advanced machine learning concepts to enhance stock price prediction accuracy. We conduct an evaluation of the Hidformer model's performance, using a set of criteria to determine its efficacy. Our findings offer additional insights into the practical application of Transformer architectures in financial time series forecasting, highlighting their potential to improve algorithmic trading strategies, including human decision making.
Because of the theoretical challenges posed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis to technical analysis, the effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading remains inadequately explored, particularly at the minute-level frequency, where effects of the microstructure of the market dominate. This study evaluates the integration of traditional technical indicators with random forest regression models using minute-level SPY data, analyzing 13 distinct model configurations. Our empirical results reveal a stark contrast between in-sample and out-of-sample performance, with $R^2$ values deteriorating from 0.749--0.812 during training to negative values in testing. A feature importance analysis demonstrates that primary price-based features dominate the predictions made by the model, accounting for over 60% of the importance, while established technical indicators, such as RSI and Bollinger Bands, account for only 14%--15%. Although the indicator-enhanced models achieved superior risk-adjusted metrics, with Rachev ratios between 0.919 and 0.961, they consistently underperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy, generating returns ranging from -2.4% to -3.9%. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about the usefulness of technical indicators in algorithmic trading, suggesting that in high-frequency contexts, they may be more relevant to risk management rather than to predicting returns. For practitioners and researchers, our findings indicate that successful high-frequency trading strategies should focus on adaptive feature selection and regime-specific modeling rather than relying on traditional technical indicators, as well as indicating the critical importance of robust out-of-sample testing in the development of a model.
Stock price prediction is challenging due to global economic instability, high volatility, and the complexity of financial markets. Hence, this study compared several machine learning algorithms for stock market prediction and further examined the influence of a sentiment analysis indicator on the prediction of stock prices. Our results were two-fold. Firstly, we used a lexicon-based sentiment analysis approach to identify sentiment features, thus evidencing the correlation between the sentiment indicator and stock price movement. Secondly, we proposed the use of GRUvader, an optimal gated recurrent unit network, for stock market prediction. Our findings suggest that stand-alone models struggled compared with AI-enhanced models. Thus, our paper makes further recommendations on latter systems.
Accurate prediction of stock market trends is crucial for informed investment decisions and effective portfolio management, ultimately leading to enhanced wealth creation and risk mitigation. This study proposes a novel approach for predicting stock prices in the stock market by integrating Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, using sentiment analysis of social network data and candlestick data (price). The proposed methodology consists of two primary components: sentiment analysis of social network and candlestick data. By amalgamating candlestick data with insights gleaned from Twitter, this approach facilitates a more detailed and accurate examination of market trends and patterns, ultimately leading to more effective stock price predictions. Additionally, a Random Forest algorithm is used to classify tweets as either positive or negative, allowing for a more subtle and informed assessment of market sentiment. This study uses CNN and LSTM networks to predict stock prices. The CNN extracts short-term features, while the LSTM models long-term dependencies. The integration of both networks enables a more comprehensive analysis of market trends and patterns, leading to more accurate stock price predictions.