Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), particularly LSTMs, are effective for time-series tasks like sentiment analysis and short-term stock prediction. However, their computational complexity poses challenges for real-time deployment in resource constrained environments. While FPGAs offer a promising platform for energy-efficient AI acceleration, existing tools mainly target feed-forward networks, and LSTM acceleration typically requires full custom implementation. In this paper, we address this gap by leveraging the open-source and extensible FINN framework to enable the generalized deployment of LSTMs on FPGAs. Specifically, we leverage the Scan operator from the Open Neural Network Exchange (ONNX) specification to model the recurrent nature of LSTM computations, enabling support for mixed quantisation within them and functional verification of LSTM-based models. Furthermore, we introduce custom transformations within the FINN compiler to map the quantised ONNX computation graph to hardware blocks from the HLS kernel library of the FINN compiler and Vitis HLS. We validate the proposed tool-flow by training a quantised ConvLSTM model for a mid-price stock prediction task using the widely used dataset and generating a corresponding hardware IP of the model using our flow, targeting the XCZU7EV device. We show that the generated quantised ConvLSTM accelerator through our flow achieves a balance between performance (latency) and resource consumption, while matching (or bettering) inference accuracy of state-of-the-art models with reduced precision. We believe that the generalisable nature of the proposed flow will pave the way for resource-efficient RNN accelerator designs on FPGAs.
This paper presents a sophisticated multi-day turnover quantitative trading algorithm that integrates advanced deep learning techniques with comprehensive cross-sectional stock prediction for the Chinese A-share market. Our framework combines five interconnected modules: initial stock selection through deep cross-sectional prediction networks, opening signal distribution analysis using mixture models for arbitrage identification, market capitalization and liquidity-based dynamic position sizing, grid-search optimized profit-taking and stop-loss mechanisms, and multi-granularity volatility-based market timing models. The algorithm employs a novel approach to balance capital efficiency with risk management through adaptive holding periods and sophisticated entry/exit timing. Trained on comprehensive A-share data from 2010-2020 and rigorously backtested on 2021-2024 data, our method achieves remarkable performance with 15.2\% annualized returns, maximum drawdown constrained below 5\%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.87. The strategy demonstrates exceptional scalability by maintaining 50-100 daily positions with a 9-day maximum holding period, incorporating dynamic profit-taking and stop-loss mechanisms that enhance capital turnover efficiency while preserving risk-adjusted returns. Our approach exhibits robust performance across various market regimes while maintaining high capital capacity suitable for institutional deployment.
Large language models (LLMs) face significant challenges in ex-ante reasoning, where analysis, inference, or predictions must be made without access to information from future events. Even with explicit prompts enforcing temporal cutoffs, LLMs often generate outputs influenced by internalized knowledge of events beyond the specified cutoff. This paper introduces a novel task and benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of LLMs to reason while adhering to such temporal constraints. The benchmark includes a variety of tasks: stock prediction, Wikipedia event prediction, scientific publication prediction, and Question Answering (QA), designed to assess factual knowledge under temporal cutoff constraints. We use leakage rate to quantify models' reliance on future information beyond cutoff timestamps. Experimental results reveal that LLMs struggle to consistently adhere to temporal cutoffs across common prompting strategies and tasks, demonstrating persistent challenges in ex-ante reasoning. This benchmark provides a potential evaluation framework to advance the development of LLMs' temporal reasoning ability for time-sensitive applications.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown significant promise for sequential portfolio optimization tasks, such as stock trading, where the objective is to maximize cumulative returns while minimizing risks using historical data. However, traditional RL approaches often produce policies that merely memorize the optimal yet impractical buying and selling behaviors within the fixed dataset. These offline policies are less generalizable as they fail to account for the non-stationary nature of the market. Our approach, MetaTrader, frames portfolio optimization as a new type of partial-offline RL problem and makes two technical contributions. First, MetaTrader employs a bilevel learning framework that explicitly trains the RL agent to improve both in-domain profits on the original dataset and out-of-domain performance across diverse transformations of the raw financial data. Second, our approach incorporates a new temporal difference (TD) method that approximates worst-case TD estimates from a batch of transformed TD targets, addressing the value overestimation issue that is particularly challenging in scenarios with limited offline data. Our empirical results on two public stock datasets show that MetaTrader outperforms existing methods, including both RL-based approaches and traditional stock prediction models.
Financial sentiment analysis (FSA) presents unique challenges to LLMs that surpass those in typical sentiment analysis due to the nuanced language used in financial contexts. The prowess of these models is often undermined by the inherent subjectivity of sentiment classifications in existing benchmark datasets like Financial Phrasebank. These datasets typically feature undefined sentiment classes that reflect the highly individualized perspectives of annotators, leading to significant variability in annotations. This variability results in an unfair expectation for LLMs during benchmarking, where they are tasked to conjecture the subjective viewpoints of human annotators without sufficient context. In this paper, we introduce the Annotators' Instruction Assisted Prompt, a novel evaluation prompt designed to redefine the task definition of FSA for LLMs. By integrating detailed task instructions originally intended for human annotators into the LLMs' prompt framework, AIAP aims to standardize the understanding of sentiment across both human and machine interpretations, providing a fair and context-rich foundation for sentiment analysis. We utilize a new dataset, WSBS, derived from the WallStreetBets subreddit to demonstrate how AIAP significantly enhances LLM performance by aligning machine operations with the refined task definitions. Experimental results demonstrate that AIAP enhances LLM performance significantly, with improvements up to 9.08. This context-aware approach not only yields incremental gains in performance but also introduces an innovative sentiment-indexing method utilizing model confidence scores. This method enhances stock price prediction models and extracts more value from the financial sentiment analysis, underscoring the significance of WSB as a critical source of financial text. Our research offers insights into both improving FSA through better evaluation methods.
Financial prediction is a complex and challenging task of time series analysis and signal processing, expected to model both short-term fluctuations and long-term temporal dependencies. Transformers have remarkable success mostly in natural language processing using attention mechanism, which also influenced the time series community. The ability to capture both short and long-range dependencies helps to understand the financial market and to recognize price patterns, leading to successful applications of Transformers in stock prediction. Although, the previous research predominantly focuses on individual features and singular predictions, that limits the model's ability to understand broader market trends. In reality, within sectors such as finance and technology, companies belonging to the same industry often exhibit correlated stock price movements. In this paper, we develop a novel neural network architecture by integrating Time2Vec with the Encoder of the Transformer model. Based on the study of different markets, we propose a novel correlation feature selection method. Through a comprehensive fine-tuning of multiple hyperparameters, we conduct a comparative analysis of our results against benchmark models. We conclude that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art encoding methods such as positional encoding, and we also conclude that selecting correlation features enhance the accuracy of predicting multiple stock prices.
In the realm of stock prediction, machine learning models encounter considerable obstacles due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio and the nonstationary nature of financial markets. These challenges often result in spurious correlations and unstable predictive relationships, leading to poor performance of models when applied to out-of-sample (OOS) domains. To address these issues, we investigate \textit{Domain Generalization} techniques, with a particular focus on causal representation learning to improve a prediction model's generalizability to OOS domains. By leveraging multi-factor models from econometrics, we introduce a novel error bound that explicitly incorporates causal relationships. In addition, we present the connection between the proposed error bound and market nonstationarity. We also develop a \textit{Causal Discovery} technique to discover invariant feature representations, which effectively mitigates the proposed error bound, and the influence of spurious correlations on causal discovery is rigorously examined. Our theoretical findings are substantiated by numerical results, showcasing the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing the generalizability of stock prediction models.
Financial sentiment has become a crucial yet complex concept in finance, increasingly used in market forecasting and investment strategies. Despite its growing importance, there remains a need to define and understand what financial sentiment truly represents and how it can be effectively measured. We explore the nature of financial sentiment and investigate how large language models (LLMs) contribute to its estimation. We trace the evolution of sentiment measurement in finance, from market-based and lexicon-based methods to advanced natural language processing techniques. The emergence of LLMs has significantly enhanced sentiment analysis, providing deeper contextual understanding and greater accuracy in extracting sentiment from financial text. We examine how BERT-based models, such as RoBERTa and FinBERT, are optimized for structured sentiment classification, while GPT-based models, including GPT-4, OPT, and LLaMA, excel in financial text generation and real-time sentiment interpretation. A comparative analysis of bidirectional and autoregressive transformer architectures highlights their respective roles in investor sentiment analysis, algorithmic trading, and financial decision-making. By exploring what financial sentiment is and how it is estimated within LLMs, we provide insights into the growing role of AI-driven sentiment analysis in finance.
This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and attention-based models. These models are assessed for their ability to capture complex temporal dependencies inherent in stock market data. Our findings show that attention-based models outperform other architectures, achieving the highest accuracy by capturing both short and long-term dependencies. This study contributes valuable insights into AI-driven financial forecasting, offering practical guidance for developing more accurate and efficient trading systems.
Stock trend prediction involves forecasting the future price movements by analyzing historical data and various market indicators. With the advancement of machine learning, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been extensively employed in stock prediction due to their powerful capability to capture spatiotemporal dependencies of stocks. However, despite the efforts of various GNN stock predictors to enhance predictive performance, the improvements remain limited, as they focus solely on analyzing historical spatiotemporal dependencies, overlooking the correlation between historical and future patterns. In this study, we propose a novel distillation-based future-aware GNN framework (DishFT-GNN) for stock trend prediction. Specifically, DishFT-GNN trains a teacher model and a student model, iteratively. The teacher model learns to capture the correlation between distribution shifts of historical and future data, which is then utilized as intermediate supervision to guide the student model to learn future-aware spatiotemporal embeddings for accurate prediction. Through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets, we verify the state-of-the-art performance of DishFT-GNN.
This paper proposes an innovative Multi-Modal Transformer framework (MMF-Trans) designed to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the Chinese stock market by integrating multi-source heterogeneous information including macroeconomy, micro-market, financial text, and event knowledge. The framework consists of four core modules: (1) A four-channel parallel encoder that processes technical indicators, financial text, macro data, and event knowledge graph respectively for independent feature extraction of multi-modal data; (2) A dynamic gated cross-modal fusion mechanism that adaptively learns the importance of different modalities through differentiable weight allocation for effective information integration; (3) A time-aligned mixed-frequency processing layer that uses an innovative position encoding method to effectively fuse data of different time frequencies and solves the time alignment problem of heterogeneous data; (4) A graph attention-based event impact quantification module that captures the dynamic impact of events on the market through event knowledge graph and quantifies the event impact coefficient. We introduce a hybrid-frequency Transformer and Event2Vec algorithm to effectively fuse data of different frequencies and quantify the event impact. Experimental results show that in the prediction task of CSI 300 constituent stocks, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the MMF-Trans framework is reduced by 23.7% compared to the baseline model, the event response prediction accuracy is improved by 41.2%, and the Sharpe ratio is improved by 32.6%.
This paper introduces a novel approach to stock data analysis by employing a Hierarchical Graph Neural Network (HGNN) model that captures multi-level information and relational structures in the stock market. The HGNN model integrates stock relationship data and hierarchical attributes to predict stock types effectively. The paper discusses the construction of a stock industry relationship graph and the extraction of temporal information from historical price sequences. It also highlights the design of a graph convolution operation and a temporal attention aggregator to model the macro market state. The integration of these features results in a comprehensive stock prediction model that addresses the challenges of utilizing stock relationship data and modeling hierarchical attributes in the stock market.
The complexity of stocks and industries presents challenges for stock prediction. Currently, stock prediction models can be divided into two categories. One category, represented by GRU and ALSTM, relies solely on stock factors for prediction, with limited effectiveness. The other category, represented by HIST and TRA, incorporates not only stock factors but also industry information, industry financial reports, public sentiment, and other inputs for prediction. The second category of models can capture correlations between stocks by introducing additional information, but the extra data is difficult to standardize and generalize. Considering the current state and limitations of these two types of models, this paper proposes the GRU-PFG (Project Factors into Graph) model. This model only takes stock factors as input and extracts inter-stock correlations using graph neural networks. It achieves prediction results that not only outperform the others models relies solely on stock factors, but also achieve comparable performance to the second category models. The experimental results show that on the CSI300 dataset, the IC of GRU-PFG is 0.134, outperforming HIST's 0.131 and significantly surpassing GRU and Transformer, achieving results better than the second category models. Moreover as a model that relies solely on stock factors, it has greater potential for generalization.
As financial markets grow increasingly complex in the big data era, accurate stock prediction has become more critical. Traditional time series models, such as GRUs, have been widely used but often struggle to capture the intricate nonlinear dynamics of markets, particularly in the flexible selection and effective utilization of key historical information. Recently, methods like Graph Neural Networks and Reinforcement Learning have shown promise in stock prediction but require high data quality and quantity, and they tend to exhibit instability when dealing with data sparsity and noise. Moreover, the training and inference processes for these models are typically complex and computationally expensive, limiting their broad deployment in practical applications. Existing approaches also generally struggle to capture unobservable latent market states effectively, such as market sentiment and expectations, microstructural factors, and participant behavior patterns, leading to an inadequate understanding of market dynamics and subsequently impact prediction accuracy. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a stock prediction model, MCI-GRU, based on a multi-head cross-attention mechanism and an improved GRU. First, we enhance the GRU model by replacing the reset gate with an attention mechanism, thereby increasing the model's flexibility in selecting and utilizing historical information. Second, we design a multi-head cross-attention mechanism for learning unobservable latent market state representations, which are further enriched through interactions with both temporal features and cross-sectional features. Finally, extensive experiments on four main stock markets show that the proposed method outperforms SOTA techniques across multiple metrics. Additionally, its successful application in real-world fund management operations confirms its effectiveness and practicality.
Recently, deep learning in stock prediction has become an important branch. Image-based methods show potential by capturing complex visual patterns and spatial correlations, offering advantages in interpretability over time series models. However, image-based approaches are more prone to overfitting, hindering robust predictive performance. To improve accuracy, this paper proposes a novel method, named Sequence-based Multi-scale Fusion Regression Convolutional Neural Network (SMSFR-CNN), for predicting stock price movements in the China A-share market. By utilizing CNN to learn sequential features and combining them with image features, we improve the accuracy of stock trend prediction on the A-share market stock dataset. This approach reduces the search space for image features, stabilizes, and accelerates the training process. Extensive comparative experiments on 4,454 A-share stocks show that the model achieves a 61.15% positive predictive value and a 63.37% negative predictive value for the next 5 days, resulting in a total profit of 165.09%.
This paper investigates the application of machine learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN), and Logistic Regression (LR), for predicting stock trends based on fundamental analysis. Unlike most existing studies that predominantly utilize technical or sentiment analysis, we emphasize the use of a company's financial statements and intrinsic value for trend forecasting. Using a dataset of 269 data points from publicly traded companies across various sectors from 2019 to 2023, we employ key financial ratios and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to formulate two prediction tasks: Annual Stock Price Difference (ASPD) and Difference between Current Stock Price and Intrinsic Value (DCSPIV). These tasks assess the likelihood of annual profit and current profitability, respectively. Our results demonstrate that LR models outperform CNN and LSTM models, achieving an average test accuracy of 74.66% for ASPD and 72.85% for DCSPIV. This study contributes to the limited literature on integrating fundamental analysis into machine learning for stock prediction, offering valuable insights for both academic research and practical investment strategies. By leveraging fundamental data, our approach highlights the potential for long-term stock trend prediction, supporting portfolio managers in their decision-making processes.
The advent of large language models (LLMs) has initiated much research into their various financial applications. However, in applying LLMs on long documents, semantic relations are not explicitly incorporated, and a full or arbitrarily sparse attention operation is employed. In recent years, progress has been made in Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR), which is a graph-based representation of text to preserve its semantic relations. Since AMR can represent semantic relationships at a deeper level, it can be beneficially utilized by graph neural networks (GNNs) for constructing effective document-level graph representations built upon LLM embeddings to predict target metrics in the financial domain. We propose FLAG: Financial Long document classification via AMR-based GNN, an AMR graph based framework to generate document-level embeddings for long financial document classification. We construct document-level graphs from sentence-level AMR graphs, endow them with specialized LLM word embeddings in the financial domain, apply a deep learning mechanism that utilizes a GNN, and examine the efficacy of our AMR-based approach in predicting labeled target data from long financial documents. Extensive experiments are conducted on a dataset of quarterly earnings calls transcripts of companies in various sectors of the economy, as well as on a corpus of more recent earnings calls of companies in the S&P 1500 Composite Index. We find that our AMR-based approach outperforms fine-tuning LLMs directly on text in predicting stock price movement trends at different time horizons in both datasets. Our work also outperforms previous work utilizing document graphs and GNNs for text classification.
Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have achieved significant success in various time series forecasting tasks. However, due to the lack of explicit and fixed spatial relationships in stock prediction tasks, many STGNNs fail to perform effectively in this domain. While some STGNNs learn spatial relationships from time series, they often lack comprehensiveness. Research indicates that modeling time series using feature changes as tokens reveals entirely different information compared to using time steps as tokens. To more comprehensively extract dynamic spatial information from stock data, we propose a Double-Path Adaptive-correlation Spatial-Temporal Inverted Transformer (DPA-STIFormer). DPA-STIFormer models each node via continuous changes in features as tokens and introduces a Double Direction Self-adaptation Fusion mechanism. This mechanism decomposes node encoding into temporal and feature representations, simultaneously extracting different spatial correlations from a double path approach, and proposes a Double-path gating mechanism to fuse these two types of correlation information. Experiments conducted on four stock market datasets demonstrate state-of-the-art results, validating the model's superior capability in uncovering latent temporal-correlation patterns.
The goal of stock trend prediction is to forecast future market movements for informed investment decisions. Existing methods mostly focus on predicting stock trends with supervised models trained on extensive annotated data. However, human annotation can be resource-intensive and the annotated data are not readily available. Inspired by the impressive few-shot capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose using LLMs in a few-shot setting to overcome the scarcity of labeled data and make prediction more feasible to investors. Previous works typically merge multiple financial news for predicting stock trends, causing two significant problems when using LLMs: (1) Merged news contains noise, and (2) it may exceed LLMs' input limits, leading to performance degradation. To overcome these issues, we propose a two-step method 'denoising-then-voting'. Specifically, we introduce an `Irrelevant' category, and predict stock trends for individual news instead of merged news. Then we aggregate these predictions using majority voting. The proposed method offers two advantages: (1) Classifying noisy news as irrelevant removes its impact on the final prediction. (2) Predicting for individual news mitigates LLMs' input length limits. Our method achieves 66.59% accuracy in S&P 500, 62.17% in CSI-100, and 61.17% in HK stock prediction, outperforming the standard few-shot counterparts by around 7%, 4%, and 4%. Furthermore, our proposed method performs on par with state-of-the-art supervised methods.
This paper introduces StockGPT, an autoregressive ``number'' model trained and tested on 70 million daily U.S.\ stock returns over nearly 100 years. Treating each return series as a sequence of tokens, StockGPT automatically learns the hidden patterns predictive of future returns via its attention mechanism. On a held-out test sample from 2001 to 2023, daily and monthly rebalanced long-short portfolios formed from StockGPT predictions yield strong performance. The StockGPT-based portfolios span momentum and long-/short-term reversals, eliminating the need for manually crafted price-based strategies, and yield highly significant alphas against leading stock market factors, suggesting a novel AI pricing effect. This highlights the immense promise of generative AI in surpassing human in making complex financial investment decisions.