The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent years, numerous machine learning algorithms have been proposed for RUL estimation, mainly focusing on providing more accurate RUL predictions. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the problem, such as inherent randomness of systems failure, lack of knowledge regarding their future states, and inaccuracy of the underlying predictive models, making it infeasible to predict the RULs precisely. Hence, it is of utmost importance to quantify the uncertainty alongside the RUL predictions. In this work, we investigate the conformal prediction (CP) framework that represents uncertainty by predicting sets of possible values for the target variable (intervals in the case of RUL) instead of making point predictions. Under very mild technical assumptions, CP formally guarantees that the actual value (true RUL) is covered by the predicted set with a degree of certainty that can be prespecified. We study three CP algorithms to conformalize any single-point RUL predictor and turn it into a valid interval predictor. Finally, we conformalize two single-point RUL predictors, deep convolutional neural networks and gradient boosting, and illustrate their performance on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data sets.
Machine learning can be enhanced through the integration of external knowledge. This method, called knowledge informed machine learning, is also applicable within the field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). In this paper, the various methods of knowledge informed machine learning, from a PHM context, are reviewed with the goal of helping the reader understand the domain. In addition, a knowledge informed machine learning technique is demonstrated, using the common IMS and PRONOSTIA bearing data sets, for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Specifically, knowledge is garnered from the field of reliability engineering which is represented through the Weibull distribution. The knowledge is then integrated into a neural network through a novel Weibull-based loss function. A thorough statistical analysis of the Weibull-based loss function is conducted, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method on the PRONOSTIA data set. However, the Weibull-based loss function is less effective on the IMS data set. The results, shortcomings, and benefits of the approach are discussed in length. Finally, all the code is publicly available for the benefit of other researchers.
This paper presents the data-driven techniques and methodologies used to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a fleet of aircraft engines that can suffer failures of diverse nature. The solution presented is based on two Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) stacked in two levels. The first DCNN is used to extract a low-dimensional feature vector using the normalized raw data as input. The second DCNN ingests a list of vectors taken from the former DCNN and estimates the RUL. Model selection was carried out by means of Bayesian optimization using a repeated random subsampling validation approach. The proposed methodology was ranked in the third place of the 2021 PHM Conference Data Challenge.
RUL estimation suffers from a server data imbalance where data from machines near their end of life is rare. Additionally, the data produced by a machine can only be labeled after the machine failed. Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) can incorporate the unlabeled data produced by machines that did not yet fail. Previous work on SSL evaluated their approaches under unrealistic conditions where the data near failure was still available. Even so, only moderate improvements were made. This paper proposes a novel SSL approach based on self-supervised pre-training. The method can outperform two competing approaches from the literature and a supervised baseline under realistic conditions on the NASA C-MAPSS dataset.