In the dynamic landscape of Industry 4.0, achieving efficiency, precision, and adaptability is essential to optimize manufacturing operations. Industries suffer due to supply chain disruptions caused by anomalies, which are being detected by current AI models but leaving domain experts uncertain without deeper insights into these anomalies. Additionally, operational inefficiencies persist due to inaccurate production forecasts and the limited effectiveness of traditional AI models for processing complex sensor data. Despite these advancements, existing systems lack the seamless integration of these capabilities needed to create a truly unified solution for enhancing production and decision-making. We propose SmartPilot, a neurosymbolic, multiagent CoPilot designed for advanced reasoning and contextual decision-making to address these challenges. SmartPilot processes multimodal sensor data and is compact to deploy on edge devices. It focuses on three key tasks: anomaly prediction, production forecasting, and domain-specific question answering. By bridging the gap between AI capabilities and real-world industrial needs, SmartPilot empowers industries with intelligent decision-making and drives transformative innovation in manufacturing. The demonstration video, datasets, and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/ChathurangiShyalika/SmartPilot.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently gained traction in transportation, bioinformatics, language and image processing, but research on their application to supply chain management remains limited. Supply chains are inherently graph-like, making them ideal for GNN methodologies, which can optimize and solve complex problems. The barriers include a lack of proper conceptual foundations, familiarity with graph applications in SCM, and real-world benchmark datasets for GNN-based supply chain research. To address this, we discuss and connect supply chains with graph structures for effective GNN application, providing detailed formulations, examples, mathematical definitions, and task guidelines. Additionally, we present a multi-perspective real-world benchmark dataset from a leading FMCG company in Bangladesh, focusing on supply chain planning. We discuss various supply chain tasks using GNNs and benchmark several state-of-the-art models on homogeneous and heterogeneous graphs across six supply chain analytics tasks. Our analysis shows that GNN-based models consistently outperform statistical Machine Learning and other Deep Learning models by around 10-30% in regression, 10-30% in classification and detection tasks, and 15-40% in anomaly detection tasks on designated metrics. With this work, we lay the groundwork for solving supply chain problems using GNNs, supported by conceptual discussions, methodological insights, and a comprehensive dataset.
This project presents an extension to the GraphCast model, a state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN) for global weather forecasting, by integrating solar energy production forecasting capabilities. The proposed approach leverages the weather forecasts generated by GraphCast and trains a neural network model to predict the ratio of actual solar output to potential solar output based on various weather conditions. The model architecture consists of an input layer corresponding to weather features (temperature, humidity, dew point, wind speed, rain, barometric pressure, and altitude), two hidden layers with ReLU activations, and an output layer predicting solar radiation. The model is trained using a mean absolute error loss function and Adam optimizer. The results demonstrate the model's effectiveness in accurately predicting solar radiation, with its convergence behavior, decreasing training loss, and accurate prediction of solar radiation patterns suggesting successful learning of the underlying relationships between weather conditions and solar radiation. The integration of solar energy production forecasting with GraphCast offers valuable insights for the renewable energy sector, enabling better planning and decision-making based on expected solar energy production. Future work could explore further model refinements, incorporation of additional weather variables, and extension to other renewable energy sources.
Accurate solar power forecasting is pivotal for the global transition towards sustainable energy systems. This study conducts a meticulous comparison between Quantum Long Short-Term Memory (QLSTM) and classical Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for solar power production forecasting. The primary objective is to evaluate the potential advantages of QLSTMs, leveraging their exponential representational capabilities, in capturing the intricate spatiotemporal patterns inherent in renewable energy data. Through controlled experiments on real-world photovoltaic datasets, our findings reveal promising improvements offered by QLSTMs, including accelerated training convergence and substantially reduced test loss within the initial epoch compared to classical LSTMs. These empirical results demonstrate QLSTM's potential to swiftly assimilate complex time series relationships, enabled by quantum phenomena like superposition. However, realizing QLSTM's full capabilities necessitates further research into model validation across diverse conditions, systematic hyperparameter optimization, hardware noise resilience, and applications to correlated renewable forecasting problems. With continued progress, quantum machine learning can offer a paradigm shift in renewable energy time series prediction, potentially ushering in an era of unprecedented accuracy and reliability in solar power forecasting worldwide. This pioneering work provides initial evidence substantiating quantum advantages over classical LSTM models while acknowledging present limitations. Through rigorous benchmarking grounded in real-world data, our study illustrates a promising trajectory for quantum learning in renewable forecasting.
Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss function that directly optimizes the hierarchical product and/or temporal structure. The benefit of our sparse hierarchical loss function is that it provides practitioners a method of producing bottom-level forecasts that are coherent to any chosen cross-sectional or temporal hierarchy. In addition, removing the need for a post-processing step as required in traditional hierarchical forecasting techniques reduces the computational cost of the prediction phase in the forecasting pipeline. On the public M5 dataset, our sparse hierarchical loss function performs up to 10% (RMSE) better compared to the baseline loss function. We implement our sparse hierarchical loss function within an existing forecasting model at bol, a large European e-commerce platform, resulting in an improved forecasting performance of 2% at the product level. Finally, we found an increase in forecasting performance of about 5-10% when evaluating the forecasting performance across the cross-sectional hierarchies that we defined. These results demonstrate the usefulness of our sparse hierarchical loss applied to a production forecasting system at a major e-commerce platform.
Global oil demand is rapidly increasing and is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day by 2040. Thus, it is vital for hydrocarbon extraction industries to forecast their production to optimize their operations and avoid losses. Big companies have realized that exploiting the power of deep learning (DL) and the massive amount of data from various oil wells for this purpose can save a lot of operational costs and reduce unwanted environmental impacts. In this direction, researchers have proposed models using conventional machine learning (ML) techniques for oil production forecasting. However, these techniques are inappropriate for this problem as they can not capture historical patterns found in time series data, resulting in inaccurate predictions. This research aims to overcome these issues by developing advanced data-driven regression models using sequential convolutions and long short-term memory (LSTM) units. Exhaustive analyses are conducted to select the optimal sequence length, model hyperparameters, and cross-well dataset formation to build highly generalized robust models. A comprehensive experimental study on Volve oilfield data validates the proposed models. It reveals that the LSTM-based sequence learning model can predict oil production better than the 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN) with mean absolute error (MAE) and R2 score of 111.16 and 0.98, respectively. It is also found that the LSTM-based model performs better than all the existing state-of-the-art solutions and achieves a 37% improvement compared to a standard linear regression, which is considered the baseline model in this work.
Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool in various fields, including computer vision, natural language processing, and speech recognition. It can unravel hidden patterns within large data sets and reveal unparalleled insights, revolutionizing many industries and disciplines. However, machine and deep learning models lack interpretability and limited domain-specific knowledge, especially in applications such as physics and engineering. Alternatively, physics-informed machine learning (PIML) techniques integrate physics principles into data-driven models. By combining deep learning with domain knowledge, PIML improves the generalization of the model, abidance by the governing physical laws, and interpretability. This paper comprehensively reviews PIML applications related to subsurface energy systems, mainly in the oil and gas industry. The review highlights the successful utilization of PIML for tasks such as seismic applications, reservoir simulation, hydrocarbons production forecasting, and intelligent decision-making in the exploration and production stages. Additionally, it demonstrates PIML's capabilities to revolutionize the oil and gas industry and other emerging areas of interest, such as carbon and hydrogen storage; and geothermal systems by providing more accurate and reliable predictions for resource management and operational efficiency.
The responsible and sustainable agave-tequila production chain is fundamental for the social, environment and economic development of Mexico's agave regions. It is therefore relevant to develop new tools for large scale automatic agave region monitoring. In this work, we present an Agave tequilana Weber azul crop segmentation and maturity classification using very high resolution satellite imagery, which could be useful for this task. To achieve this, we solve real-world deep learning problems in the very specific context of agave crop segmentation such as lack of data, low quality labels, highly imbalanced data, and low model performance. The proposed strategies go beyond data augmentation and data transfer combining active learning and the creation of synthetic images with human supervision. As a result, the segmentation performance evaluated with Intersection over Union (IoU) value increased from 0.72 to 0.90 in the test set. We also propose a method for classifying agave crop maturity with 95% accuracy. With the resulting accurate models, agave production forecasting can be made available for large regions. In addition, some supply-demand problems such excessive supplies of agave or, deforestation, could be detected early.
Production forecast based on historical data provides essential value for developing hydrocarbon resources. Classic history matching workflow is often computationally intense and geometry-dependent. Analytical data-driven models like decline curve analysis (DCA) and capacitance resistance models (CRM) provide a grid-free solution with a relatively simple model capable of integrating some degree of physics constraints. However, the analytical solution may ignore subsurface geometries and is appropriate only for specific flow regimes and otherwise may violate physics conditions resulting in degraded model prediction accuracy. Machine learning-based predictive model for time series provides non-parametric, assumption-free solutions for production forecasting, but are prone to model overfit due to training data sparsity; therefore may be accurate over short prediction time intervals. We propose a grid-free, physics-informed graph neural network (PI-GNN) for production forecasting. A customized graph convolution layer aggregates neighborhood information from historical data and has the flexibility to integrate domain expertise into the data-driven model. The proposed method relaxes the dependence on close-form solutions like CRM and honors the given physics-based constraints. Our proposed method is robust, with improved performance and model interpretability relative to the conventional CRM and GNN baseline without physics constraints.
Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible projects, which helps to avoid risky investments and achieve long-term growth. As a result, reliable petroleum reservoir forecasting is critical for controlling and managing the effective cost of oil reservoirs. Oil production is influenced by reservoir qualities such as porosity, permeability, compressibility, fluid saturation, and other well operational parameters. Three-time series algorithms i.e., Seasonal Naive method, Exponential Smoothening and ARIMA to forecast the Distillate Fuel Oil Refinery and Propane Blender net production for the next two years.
Deep neural networks can generate more accurate shale gas production forecasts in counties with a limited number of sample wells by utilizing transfer learning. This paper provides a way of transferring the knowledge gained from other deep neural network models trained on adjacent counties into the county of interest. The paper uses data from more than 6000 shale gas wells across 17 counties from Texas Barnett and Pennsylvania Marcellus shale formations to test the capabilities of transfer learning. The results reduce the forecasting error between 11% and 47% compared to the widely used Arps decline curve model.
Accurate renewable energy production forecasting has become a priority as the share of intermittent energy sources on the grid increases. Recent work has shown that convolutional deep learning models can successfully be applied to forecast weather maps. Building on this capability, we propose a ResNet-inspired model that estimates solar and wind power production based on weather maps. By capturing both spatial and temporal correlations using convolutional neural networks with stacked input frames, the model is designed to capture the complex dynamics governing these energy sources. A dataset that focuses on the state of California is constructed and made available as a secondary contribution of the work. We demonstrate that our novel model outperforms traditional deep learning techniques: it predicts an accurate power production profile that is smooth and includes high-frequency details.
The paper describes the usage of intelligent approaches for field development tasks that may assist a decision-making process. We focused on the problem of wells location optimization and two tasks within it: improving the quality of oil production estimation and estimation of reservoir characteristics for appropriate wells allocation and parametrization, using machine learning methods. For oil production estimation, we implemented and investigated the quality of forecasting models: physics-based, pure data-driven, and hybrid one. The CRMIP model was chosen as a physics-based approach. We compare it with the machine learning and hybrid methods in a frame of oil production forecasting task. In the investigation of reservoir characteristics for wells location choice, we automated the seismic analysis using evolutionary identification of convolutional neural network for the reservoir detection. The Volve oil field dataset was used as a case study to conduct the experiments. The implemented approaches can be used to analyze different oil fields or adapted to similar physics-related problems.
As more and more energy is produced from renewable energy sources (RES), the challenge for balancing production and consumption is being shifted to consumers instead of the power grid. This requires new and intelligent ways of flexibility management at individual building and district levels. To this end, this paper presents a model based optimal control (MPC) algorithm embedded with deep neural network for day-ahead consumption and production forecasting. The algorithm is used to optimize a medium-sized grocery store energy consumption located in Finland. System was tested in a simulation tool utilising real-life power measurements from the grocery store. We report a $8.4\%$ reduction in daily peak loads with flexibility provided by a $20$ kWh battery. On the other hand, a significant benefit was not seen in trying to optimize with respect to the energy spot price. We conclude that our approach is able to significantly reduce peak loads in a grocery store without additional operational costs.
Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However, identifying such models can be very challenging as they need to be constrained to all available data. In particular, they should reproduce past production data, which requires to solve a complex non-linear inverse problem. In this paper, we thus propose to investigate the potential of machine learning algorithms to predict the future production of a reservoir based on past production data without model calibration. We focus more specifically on robust online aggregation, a deterministic approach that provides a robust framework to make forecasts on a regular basis. This method does not rely on any specific assumption or need for stochastic modeling. Forecasts are first simulated for a set of base reservoir models representing the prior uncertainty, and then combined to predict production at the next time step. The weight associated to each forecast is related to its past performance. Three different algorithms are considered for weight computations: the exponentially weighted average algorithm, ridge regression and the Lasso regression. They are applied on a synthetic reservoir case study, the Brugge case, for sequential predictions. To estimate the potential of development scenarios, production forecasts are needed on long periods of time without intermediary data acquisition. An extension of the deterministic aggregation approach is thus proposed in this paper to provide such multi-step-ahead forecasts.