An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or assumption. In classification problems, credal regions are a tool that is able to provide provable guarantees under realistic assumptions by characterizing the uncertainty about the distribution of the labels. Building on previous work, we show that credal regions can be directly constructed using conformal methods. This allows us to provide a novel extension of classical conformal prediction to problems with ambiguous ground truth, that is, when the exact labels for given inputs are not exactly known. The resulting construction enjoys desirable practical and theoretical properties: (i) conformal coverage guarantees, (ii) smaller prediction sets (compared to classical conformal prediction regions) and (iii) disentanglement of uncertainty sources (epistemic, aleatoric). We empirically verify our findings on both synthetic and real datasets.
To address the limitations of medium- and long-term four-dimensional (4D) trajectory prediction models, this paper proposes a hybrid CNN-LSTM-attention-adaboost neural network model incorporating a multi-strategy improved snake-herd optimization (SO) algorithm. The model applies the Adaboost algorithm to divide multiple weak learners, and each submodel utilizes CNN to extract spatial features, LSTM to capture temporal features, and attention mechanism to capture global features comprehensively. The strong learner model, combined with multiple sub-models, then optimizes the hyperparameters of the prediction model through the natural selection behavior pattern simulated by SO. In this study, based on the real ADS-B data from Xi'an to Tianjin, the comparison experiments and ablation studies of multiple optimizers are carried out, and a comprehensive test and evaluation analysis is carried out. The results show that SO-CLA-adaboost outperforms traditional optimizers such as particle swarm, whale, and gray wolf in handling large-scale high-dimensional trajectory data. In addition, introducing the full-strategy collaborative improvement SO algorithm improves the model's prediction accuracy by 39.89%.
Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.
Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction models are integral to a myriad of industrial settings, such as personalized search advertising. Current methods typically involve feature extraction from users' historical behavior sequences combined with product information, feeding into a discriminative model that is trained on user feedback to estimate CTR. With the success of models such as GPT, the potential for generative models to enrich expressive power beyond discriminative models has become apparent. In light of this, we introduce a novel model that leverages generative models to enhance the precision of CTR predictions in discriminative models. To reconcile the disparate data aggregation needs of both model types, we design a two-stage training process: 1) Generative pre-training for next-item prediction with the given item category in user behavior sequences; 2) Fine-tuning the well-trained generative model within a discriminative CTR prediction framework. Our method's efficacy is substantiated through extensive experiments on a new dataset, and its significant utility is further corroborated by online A/B testing results. Currently, the model is deployed on one of the world's largest e-commerce platforms, and we intend to release the associated code and dataset in the future.
The zero-shot capabilities of foundation models (FMs) for time series forecasting offer promising potentials in conformal prediction, as most of the available data can be allocated to calibration. This study compares the performance of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) with traditional methods, including statistical models and gradient boosting, within a conformal prediction setting. Our findings highlight two key advantages of TSFMs. First, when the volume of data is limited, TSFMs provide more reliable conformalized prediction intervals than classic models, thanks to their superior predictive accuracy. Second, the calibration process is more stable because more data are used for calibration. Morever, the fewer data available, the more pronounced these benefits become, as classic models require a substantial amount of data for effective training. These results underscore the potential of foundation models in improving conformal prediction reliability in time series applications, particularly in data-constrained cases. All the code to reproduce the experiments is available.
We introduce Ibex, a pan-immunoglobulin structure prediction model that achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in modeling the variable domains of antibodies, nanobodies, and T-cell receptors. Unlike previous approaches, Ibex explicitly distinguishes between bound and unbound protein conformations by training on labeled apo and holo structural pairs, enabling accurate prediction of both states at inference time. Using a comprehensive private dataset of high-resolution antibody structures, we demonstrate superior out-of-distribution performance compared to existing specialized and general protein structure prediction tools. Ibex combines the accuracy of cutting-edge models with significantly reduced computational requirements, providing a robust foundation for accelerating large molecule design and therapeutic development.
With the growing complexity and dynamics of the mobile communication networks, accurately predicting key system parameters, such as channel state information (CSI), user location, and network traffic, has become essential for a wide range of physical (PHY)-layer and medium access control (MAC)-layer tasks. Although traditional deep learning (DL)-based methods have been widely applied to such prediction tasks, they often struggle to generalize across different scenarios and tasks. In response, we propose a unified foundation model for multi-task prediction in wireless networks that supports diverse prediction intervals. The proposed model enforces univariate decomposition to unify heterogeneous tasks, encodes granularity for interval awareness, and uses a causal Transformer backbone for accurate predictions. Additionally, we introduce a patch masking strategy during training to support arbitrary input lengths. After trained on large-scale datasets, the proposed foundation model demonstrates strong generalization to unseen scenarios and achieves zero-shot performance on new tasks that surpass traditional full-shot baselines.
Modeling task-driven attention in driving is a fundamental challenge for both autonomous vehicles and cognitive science. Existing methods primarily predict where drivers look by generating spatial heatmaps, but fail to capture the cognitive motivations behind attention allocation in specific contexts, which limits deeper understanding of attention mechanisms. To bridge this gap, we introduce Explainable Driver Attention Prediction, a novel task paradigm that jointly predicts spatial attention regions (where), parses attended semantics (what), and provides cognitive reasoning for attention allocation (why). To support this, we present W3DA, the first large-scale explainable driver attention dataset. It enriches existing benchmarks with detailed semantic and causal annotations across diverse driving scenarios, including normal conditions, safety-critical situations, and traffic accidents. We further propose LLada, a Large Language model-driven framework for driver attention prediction, which unifies pixel modeling, semantic parsing, and cognitive reasoning within an end-to-end architecture. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LLada, exhibiting robust generalization across datasets and driving conditions. This work serves as a key step toward a deeper understanding of driver attention mechanisms, with significant implications for autonomous driving, intelligent driver training, and human-computer interaction.
Automatic speech quality assessment plays a crucial role in the development of speech synthesis systems, but existing models exhibit significant performance variations across different granularity levels of prediction tasks. This paper proposes an enhanced MOS prediction system based on self-supervised learning speech models, incorporating a Mixture of Experts (MoE) classification head and utilizing synthetic data from multiple commercial generation models for data augmentation. Our method builds upon existing self-supervised models such as wav2vec2, designing a specialized MoE architecture to address different types of speech quality assessment tasks. We also collected a large-scale synthetic speech dataset encompassing the latest text-to-speech, speech conversion, and speech enhancement systems. However, despite the adoption of the MoE architecture and expanded dataset, the model's performance improvements in sentence-level prediction tasks remain limited. Our work reveals the limitations of current methods in handling sentence-level quality assessment, provides new technical pathways for the field of automatic speech quality assessment, and also delves into the fundamental causes of performance differences across different assessment granularities.
Predicting Quality of Service (QoS) data crucial for cloud service selection, where user privacy is a critical concern. Federated Graph Neural Networks (FGNNs) can perform QoS data prediction as well as maintaining user privacy. However, existing FGNN-based QoS predictors commonly implement on-device training on scattered explicit user-service graphs, thereby failing to utilize the implicit user-user interactions. To address this issue, this study proposes a high order collaboration-oriented federated graph neural network (HC-FGNN) to obtain accurate QoS prediction with privacy preservation. Concretely, it magnifies the explicit user-service graphs following the principle of attention mechanism to obtain the high order collaboration, which reflects the implicit user-user interactions. Moreover, it utilizes a lightweight-based message aggregation way to improve the computational efficiency. The extensive experiments on two QoS datasets from real application indicate that the proposed HC-FGNN possesses the advantages of high prediction accurate and privacy protection.
Many dynamic processes such as telecommunication and transport networks can be described through discrete time series of graphs. Modelling the dynamics of such time series enables prediction of graph structure at future time steps, which can be used in applications such as detection of anomalies. Existing approaches for graph prediction have limitations such as assuming that the vertices do not to change between consecutive graphs. To address this, we propose to exploit time series prediction methods in combination with an adapted form of flux balance analysis (FBA), a linear programming method originating from biochemistry. FBA is adapted to incorporate various constraints applicable to the scenario of growing graphs. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets (constructed via Preferential Attachment model) and real datasets (UCI Message, HePH, Facebook, Bitcoin) demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.
3D semantic occupancy prediction plays a pivotal role in autonomous driving. However, inherent limitations of fewframe images and redundancy in 3D space compromise prediction accuracy for occluded and distant scenes. Existing methods enhance performance by fusing historical frame data, which need additional data and significant computational resources. To address these issues, this paper propose FMOcc, a Tri-perspective View (TPV) refinement occupancy network with flow matching selective state space model for few-frame 3D occupancy prediction. Firstly, to generate missing features, we designed a feature refinement module based on a flow matching model, which is called Flow Matching SSM module (FMSSM). Furthermore, by designing the TPV SSM layer and Plane Selective SSM (PS3M), we selectively filter TPV features to reduce the impact of air voxels on non-air voxels, thereby enhancing the overall efficiency of the model and prediction capability for distant scenes. Finally, we design the Mask Training (MT) method to enhance the robustness of FMOcc and address the issue of sensor data loss. Experimental results on the Occ3D-nuScenes and OpenOcc datasets show that our FMOcc outperforms existing state-of-theart methods. Our FMOcc with two frame input achieves notable scores of 43.1% RayIoU and 39.8% mIoU on Occ3D-nuScenes validation, 42.6% RayIoU on OpenOcc with 5.4 G inference memory and 330ms inference time.
We present Locality-aware Parallel Decoding (LPD) to accelerate autoregressive image generation. Traditional autoregressive image generation relies on next-patch prediction, a memory-bound process that leads to high latency. Existing works have tried to parallelize next-patch prediction by shifting to multi-patch prediction to accelerate the process, but only achieved limited parallelization. To achieve high parallelization while maintaining generation quality, we introduce two key techniques: (1) Flexible Parallelized Autoregressive Modeling, a novel architecture that enables arbitrary generation ordering and degrees of parallelization. It uses learnable position query tokens to guide generation at target positions while ensuring mutual visibility among concurrently generated tokens for consistent parallel decoding. (2) Locality-aware Generation Ordering, a novel schedule that forms groups to minimize intra-group dependencies and maximize contextual support, enhancing generation quality. With these designs, we reduce the generation steps from 256 to 20 (256$\times$256 res.) and 1024 to 48 (512$\times$512 res.) without compromising quality on the ImageNet class-conditional generation, and achieving at least 3.4$\times$ lower latency than previous parallelized autoregressive models.
Given any model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends this to inputs with worst-case noise. A well-established approach is to use randomized smoothing for RCP since it is applicable to any black-box model and provides smaller sets compared to deterministic methods. However, current smoothing-based RCP requires many model forward passes per each input which is computationally expensive. We show that conformal prediction attains some robustness even with a forward pass on a single randomly perturbed input. Using any binary certificate we propose a single sample robust CP (RCP1). Our approach returns robust sets with smaller average set size compared to SOTA methods which use many (e.g. around 100) passes per input. Our key insight is to certify the conformal prediction procedure itself rather than individual scores. Our approach is agnostic to the setup (classification and regression). We further extend our approach to smoothing-based robust conformal risk control.
Japan's kairanban culture and idobata conversations have long functioned as traditional communication practices that foster nuanced dialogue among community members and contribute to the formation of social balance. Inspired by these information exchange processes, this study proposes a multi-agent inference framework (KCS+IBC) that integrates multiple large language models (LLMs) to achieve bias mitigation, improved explainability, and probabilistic prediction in sentiment analysis. In addition to sequentially sharing prediction results, the proposed method incorporates a mid-phase casual dialogue session to blend formal inference with individual perspectives and introduces probabilistic sentiment prediction. Experimental results show that KCS achieves accuracy comparable to that of a single LLM across datasets, while KCS+IBC exhibits a consistent decrease in entropy and a gradual increase in variance during the latter stages of inference, suggesting the framework's ability to balance aggregation and diversity of predictions. Future work will quantitatively assess the impact of these characteristics on bias correction and aim to develop more advanced sentiment analysis systems.
Using message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) for node and link prediction is crucial in various scientific and industrial domains, which has led to the development of diverse MPNN architectures. Besides working well in practical settings, their ability to generalize beyond the training set remains poorly understood. While some studies have explored MPNNs' generalization in graph-level prediction tasks, much less attention has been given to node- and link-level predictions. Existing works often rely on unrealistic i.i.d.\@ assumptions, overlooking possible correlations between nodes or links, and assuming fixed aggregation and impractical loss functions while neglecting the influence of graph structure. In this work, we introduce a unified framework to analyze the generalization properties of MPNNs in inductive and transductive node and link prediction settings, incorporating diverse architectural parameters and loss functions and quantifying the influence of graph structure. Additionally, our proposed generalization framework can be applied beyond graphs to any classification task under the inductive or transductive setting. Our empirical study supports our theoretical insights, deepening our understanding of MPNNs' generalization capabilities in these tasks.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely used for various learning tasks, ranging from node classification to link prediction. They have demonstrated excellent performance in multiple domains involving graph-structured data. However, an important category of learning tasks, namely link weight prediction, has received less emphasis due to its increased complexity compared to binary link classification. Link weight prediction becomes even more challenging when considering multilayer networks, where nodes can be interconnected across multiple layers. To address these challenges, we propose a new method named Multiplex Spatial Graph Convolution Network (MSGCN), which spatially embeds information across multiple layers to predict interlayer link weights. The MSGCN model generalizes spatial graph convolution to multiplex networks and captures the geometric structure of nodes across multiple layers. Extensive experiments using data with known interlayer link information show that the MSGCN model has robust, accurate, and generalizable link weight prediction performance across a wide variety of multiplex network structures.
With the emergence of powerful data-driven methods in human trajectory prediction (HTP), gaining a finer understanding of multi-agent interactions lies within hand's reach, with important implications in areas such as autonomous navigation and crowd modeling. This survey reviews some of the most recent advancements in deep learning-based multi-agent trajectory prediction, focusing on studies published between 2020 and 2024. We categorize the existing methods based on their architectural design, their input representations, and their overall prediction strategies, placing a particular emphasis on models evaluated using the ETH/UCY benchmark. Furthermore, we highlight key challenges and future research directions in the field of multi-agent HTP.
Component obsolescence poses significant challenges in industries reliant on electronic components, causing increased costs and disruptions in the security and availability of systems. Accurate obsolescence risk prediction is essential but hindered by a lack of reliable data. This paper proposes a novel approach to forecasting obsolescence risk using zero-shot learning (ZSL) with large language models (LLMs) to address data limitations by leveraging domain-specific knowledge from tabular datasets. Applied to two real-world datasets, the method demonstrates effective risk prediction. A comparative evaluation of four LLMs underscores the importance of selecting the right model for specific forecasting tasks.
Online conformal prediction has demonstrated its capability to construct a prediction set for each incoming data point that covers the true label with a predetermined probability. To cope with potential distribution shift, multi-model online conformal prediction has been introduced to select and leverage different models from a preselected candidate set. Along with the improved flexibility, the choice of the preselected set also brings challenges. A candidate set that includes a large number of models may increase the computational complexity. In addition, the inclusion of irrelevant models with poor performance may negatively impact the performance and lead to unnecessarily large prediction sets. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multi-model online conformal prediction algorithm that identifies a subset of effective models at each time step by collecting feedback from a bipartite graph, which is refined upon receiving new data. A model is then selected from this subset to construct the prediction set, resulting in reduced computational complexity and smaller prediction sets. Additionally, we demonstrate that using prediction set size as feedback, alongside model loss, can significantly improve efficiency by constructing smaller prediction sets while still satisfying the required coverage guarantee. The proposed algorithms are proven to ensure valid coverage and achieve sublinear regret. Experiments on real and synthetic datasets validate that the proposed methods construct smaller prediction sets and outperform existing multi-model online conformal prediction approaches.