Detailed population maps play an important role in diverse fields ranging from humanitarian action to urban planning. Generating such maps in a timely and scalable manner presents a challenge, especially in data-scarce regions. To address it we have developed POPCORN, a population mapping method whose only inputs are free, globally available satellite images from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2; and a small number of aggregate population counts over coarse census districts for calibration. Despite the minimal data requirements our approach surpasses the mapping accuracy of existing schemes, including several that rely on building footprints derived from high-resolution imagery. E.g., we were able to produce population maps for Rwanda with 100m GSD based on less than 400 regional census counts. In Kigali, those maps reach an R^2 score of 66% w.r.t. a ground truth reference map, with an average error of only about 10 inhabitants/ha. Conveniently, POPCORN retrieves explicit maps of built-up areas and of local building occupancy rates, making the mapping process interpretable and offering additional insights, for instance about the distribution of built-up, but unpopulated areas, e.g., industrial warehouses. Moreover, we find that, once trained, the model can be applied repeatedly to track population changes; and that it can be transferred to geographically similar regions, e.g., from Uganda to Rwanda). With our work we aim to democratize access to up-to-date and high-resolution population maps, recognizing that some regions faced with particularly strong population dynamics may lack the resources for costly micro-census campaigns.
To better understand current trends of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, high-quality spatiotemporal population estimates are necessary. While the joint use of remote sensing and deep learning has achieved promising results for population distribution estimation, most of the current work focuses on fine-scale spatial predictions derived from single date census, thereby neglecting temporal analyses. In this work, we focus on evaluating how deep learning change detection techniques can unravel temporal population dynamics at short intervals. Since Post-Classification Comparison (PCC) methods for change detection are known to propagate the error of the individual maps, we propose an end-to-end population growth mapping method. Specifically, a ResNet encoder, pretrained on a population mapping task with Sentinel-2 MSI data, was incorporated into a Siamese network. The Siamese network was trained at the census level to accurately predict population change. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in Kigali, Rwanda, for the time period 2016-2020, using bi-temporal Sentinel-2 data. Compared to PCC, the Siamese network greatly reduced errors in population change predictions at the census level. These results show promise for future remote sensing-based population growth mapping endeavors.
Fine-grained population maps are needed in several domains, like urban planning, environmental monitoring, public health, and humanitarian operations. Unfortunately, in many countries only aggregate census counts over large spatial units are collected, moreover, these are not always up-to-date. We present POMELO, a deep learning model that employs coarse census counts and open geodata to estimate fine-grained population maps with 100m ground sampling distance. Moreover, the model can also estimate population numbers when no census counts at all are available, by generalizing across countries. In a series of experiments for several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the maps produced with POMELOare in good agreement with the most detailed available reference counts: disaggregation of coarse census counts reaches R2 values of 85-89%; unconstrained prediction in the absence of any counts reaches 48-69%.
Fine-grained population distribution data is of great importance for many applications, e.g., urban planning, traffic scheduling, epidemic modeling, and risk control. However, due to the limitations of data collection, including infrastructure density, user privacy, and business security, such fine-grained data is hard to collect and usually, only coarse-grained data is available. Thus, obtaining fine-grained population distribution from coarse-grained distribution becomes an important problem. To tackle this problem, existing methods mainly rely on sufficient fine-grained ground truth for training, which is not often available for the majority of cities. That limits the applications of these methods and brings the necessity to transfer knowledge between data-sufficient source cities to data-scarce target cities. In knowledge transfer scenario, we employ single reference fine-grained ground truth in target city, which is easy to obtain via remote sensing or questionnaire, as the ground truth to inform the large-scale urban structure and support the knowledge transfer in target city. By this approach, we transform the fine-grained population mapping problem into a one-shot transfer learning problem. In this paper, we propose a novel one-shot transfer learning framework PSRNet to transfer spatial-temporal knowledge across cities from the view of network structure, the view of data, and the view of optimization. Experiments on real-life datasets of 4 cities demonstrate that PSRNet has significant advantages over 8 state-of-the-art baselines by reducing RMSE and MAE by more than 25%. Our code and datasets are released in Github (https://github.com/erzhuoshao/PSRNet-CIKM).
We propose a generalizable framework for the population estimation of dense, informal settlements in low-income urban areas--so called 'slums'--using high-resolution satellite imagery. Precise population estimates are a crucial factor for efficient resource allocations by government authorities and NGO's, for instance in medical emergencies. We utilize equitable ground-truth data, which is gathered in collaboration with local communities: Through training and community mapping, the local population contributes their unique domain knowledge, while also maintaining agency over their data. This practice allows us to avoid carrying forward potential biases into the modeling pipeline, which might arise from a less rigorous ground-truthing approach. We contextualize our approach in respect to the ongoing discussion within the machine learning community, aiming to make real-world machine learning applications more inclusive, fair and accountable. Because of the resource intensive ground-truth generation process, our training data is limited. We propose a gridded population estimation model, enabling flexible and customizable spatial resolutions. We test our pipeline on three experimental site in Nigeria, utilizing pre-trained and fine-tune vision networks to overcome data sparsity. Our findings highlight the difficulties of transferring common benchmark models to real-world tasks. We discuss this and propose steps forward.
Dynamic high resolution data on human population distribution is of great importance for a wide spectrum of activities and real-life applications, but is too difficult and expensive to obtain directly. Therefore, generating fine-scaled population distributions from coarse population data is of great significance. However, there are three major challenges: 1) the complexity in spatial relations between high and low resolution population; 2) the dependence of population distributions on other external information; 3) the difficulty in retrieving temporal distribution patterns. In this paper, we first propose the idea to generate dynamic population distributions in full-time series, then we design dynamic population mapping via deep neural network(DeepDPM), a model that describes both spatial and temporal patterns using coarse data and point of interest information. In DeepDPM, we utilize super-resolution convolutional neural network(SRCNN) based model to directly map coarse data into higher resolution data, and a time-embedded long short-term memory model to effectively capture the periodicity nature to smooth the finer-scaled results from the previous static SRCNN model. We perform extensive experiments on a real-life mobile dataset collected from Shanghai. Our results demonstrate that DeepDPM outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods and a suite of frequent data-mining approaches. Moreover, DeepDPM breaks through the limitation from previous works in time dimension so that dynamic predictions in all-day time slots can be obtained.