Modeling asynchronous event sequences is crucial in numerous real-world applications such as healthcare monitoring, financial transaction analysis, and so on. Traditional temporal point processes, including Hawkes Processes, often fail to capture complex dependencies due to their parametric limitations. While neural approaches like RNNs and Transformers have improved flexibility, they struggle with computational inefficiency, and attention saturation. In this paper, we introduce the Mamba Hawkes Process (MHP), the first framework to integrate selective state space model (Mamba) with temporal point processes. MHP leverages time-varying state transitions and input-dependent gating to efficiently encode event history and capture long-term dependencies with linear complexity. Importantly, we provide theoretical guarantees showing that MHP generalizes both classical multi-exponential Hawkes processes and exponential-decay gated RNNs, underscoring its expressive power and theoretical soundness. To address the inherent constraints of pure state space models in handling heterogeneous event interactions, we further develop Adaptive Mamba Hawkes Process (A-MHP) that incorporates two novel mechanisms: a Time-Scaling Mechanism that adaptively weights time intervals based on event type and history, and a Dual-Channel State Transition that adaptively processes event content and temporal dynamics for more refined state updates. Extensive experiments on synthetic and realworld datasets demonstrate that MHP and A-MHP consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines in event prediction tasks, particularly in long-sequence scenarios. Our work establishes a scalable and theoretically grounded paradigm for event sequence modeling, with practical implications for predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, and dynamic system analysis.
Result diversification (RD) is a crucial technique in Text-to-Image Retrieval for enhancing the efficiency of a practical application. Conventional methods focus solely on increasing the diversity metric of image appearances. However, the diversity metric and its desired value vary depending on the application, which limits the applications of RD. This paper proposes a novel task called CDR-CA (Contextual Diversity Refinement of Composite Attributes). CDR-CA aims to refine the diversities of multiple attributes, according to the application's context. To address this task, we propose Multi-Source DPPs, a simple yet strong baseline that extends the Determinantal Point Process (DPP) to multi-sources. We model MS-DPP as a single DPP model with a unified similarity matrix based on a manifold representation. We also introduce Tangent Normalization to reflect contexts. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/NEC-N-SOGI/msdpp.
In many real-world applications, evaluating the goodness of instances is often costly and time-consuming, e.g., human feedback and physics simulations, in contrast to proposing new instances. In particular, this is even more critical in reinforcement learning, as new interactions with the environment (i.e., new instances) need to be evaluated to provide a reward signal to learn from. As sufficient exploration is crucial, learning from a diverse mini-batch can have a large impact and help mitigate mode collapse. In this paper, we introduce diverse mini-batch selection for reinforcement learning and propose to use determinantal point processes for this task. We study this framework in the context of a real-world problem, namely drug discovery. We experimentally study how our proposed framework can improve the effectiveness of chemical exploration in de novo drug design, where finding diverse and high-quality solutions is essential. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation with three well-established molecular generation oracles over numerous generative steps. Our experiments conclude that our diverse mini-batch selection framework can substantially improve the diversity of the solutions, while still obtaining solutions of high quality. In drug discovery, such outcome can potentially lead to fulfilling unmet medication needs faster.
Deep neural networks have set the state-of-the-art in computer vision tasks such as bounding box detection and semantic segmentation. Object detectors and segmentation models assign confidence scores to predictions, reflecting the model's uncertainty in object detection or pixel-wise classification. However, these confidence estimates are often miscalibrated, as their architectures and loss functions are tailored to task performance rather than probabilistic foundation. Even with well calibrated predictions, object detectors fail to quantify uncertainty outside detected bounding boxes, i.e., the model does not make a probability assessment of whether an area without detected objects is truly free of obstacles. This poses a safety risk in applications such as automated driving, where uncertainty in empty areas remains unexplored. In this work, we propose an object detection model grounded in spatial statistics. Bounding box data matches realizations of a marked point process, commonly used to describe the probabilistic occurrence of spatial point events identified as bounding box centers, where marks are used to describe the spatial extension of bounding boxes and classes. Our statistical framework enables a likelihood-based training and provides well-defined confidence estimates for whether a region is drivable, i.e., free of objects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through calibration assessments and evaluation of performance.
This paper studies a high-altitude platform (HAP) network supported by reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs). The practical irregular placement of HAPs and RISs is modeled using homogeneous Poisson point processes, while buildings that cause blockages in urban areas are modeled as a Boolean scheme of rectangles. We introduce a novel approach to characterize the statistical channel based on generalized Beta prime distribution. Analytical expressions for coverage probability and ergodic capacity in an interference-limited system are derived and validated through Monte Carlo simulations. The findings show notable performance improvements and reveal the impact of various system parameters, including blockages effect which contribute in mitigating interference from the other visible HAPs. This proposed system could enhance connectivity and enable effective data offloading in urban environments.
The emergence of online social platforms, such as social networks and social media, has drastically affected the way people apprehend the information flows to which they are exposed. In such platforms, various information cascades spreading among users is the main force creating complex dynamics of opinion formation, each user being characterized by their own behavior adoption mechanism. Moreover, the spread of multiple pieces of information or beliefs in a networked population is rarely uncorrelated. In this paper, we introduce the Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC), a model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes with the capacity to model jointly non-trivial interaction between cascades and users. We emphasize on the interplay between information cascades and user activity, and use a mixture of temporal point processes to build a coupled user/cascade point process model. Experiments on synthetic and real data highlight the benefits of this approach and demonstrate that MIC achieves superior performance to existing methods in modeling the spread of information cascades. Finally, we demonstrate how MIC can provide, through its learned parameters, insightful bi-layered visualizations of real social network activity data.
Gaussian processes (GPs) play an essential role in biostatistics, scientific machine learning, and Bayesian optimization for their ability to provide probabilistic predictions and model uncertainty. However, GP inference struggles to scale to large datasets (which are common in modern applications), since it requires the solution of a linear system whose size scales quadratically with the number of samples in the dataset. We propose an approximate, distributed, accelerated sketch-and-project algorithm ($\texttt{ADASAP}$) for solving these linear systems, which improves scalability. We use the theory of determinantal point processes to show that the posterior mean induced by sketch-and-project rapidly converges to the true posterior mean. In particular, this yields the first efficient, condition number-free algorithm for estimating the posterior mean along the top spectral basis functions, showing that our approach is principled for GP inference. $\texttt{ADASAP}$ outperforms state-of-the-art solvers based on conjugate gradient and coordinate descent across several benchmark datasets and a large-scale Bayesian optimization task. Moreover, $\texttt{ADASAP}$ scales to a dataset with $> 3 \cdot 10^8$ samples, a feat which has not been accomplished in the literature.
Reliable uncertainty estimates are crucial in modern machine learning. Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) and Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) extend GPs hierarchically, offering promising methods for uncertainty quantification grounded in Bayesian principles. However, their empirical calibration and robustness under distribution shift relative to baselines like Deep Ensembles remain understudied. This work evaluates these models on regression (CASP dataset) and classification (ESR dataset) tasks, assessing predictive performance (MAE, Accu- racy), calibration using Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) and Expected Calibration Error (ECE), alongside robustness under various synthetic feature-level distribution shifts. Results indicate DSPPs provide strong in-distribution calibration leveraging their sigma point approximations. However, compared to Deep Ensembles, which demonstrated superior robustness in both per- formance and calibration under the tested shifts, the GP-based methods showed vulnerabilities, exhibiting particular sensitivity in the observed metrics. Our findings underscore ensembles as a robust baseline, suggesting that while deep GP methods offer good in-distribution calibration, their practical robustness under distribution shift requires careful evaluation. To facilitate reproducibility, we make our code available at https://github.com/matthjs/xai-gp.
Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are widely used for modeling event sequences in various medical domains, such as disease onset prediction, progression analysis, and clinical decision support. Although TPPs effectively capture temporal dynamics, their lack of interpretability remains a critical challenge. Recent advancements have introduced interpretable TPPs. However, these methods fail to incorporate numerical features, thereby limiting their ability to generate precise predictions. To address this issue, we propose Hybrid-Rule Temporal Point Processes (HRTPP), a novel framework that integrates temporal logic rules with numerical features, improving both interpretability and predictive accuracy in event modeling. HRTPP comprises three key components: basic intensity for intrinsic event likelihood, rule-based intensity for structured temporal dependencies, and numerical feature intensity for dynamic probability modulation. To effectively discover valid rules, we introduce a two-phase rule mining strategy with Bayesian optimization. To evaluate our method, we establish a multi-criteria assessment framework, incorporating rule validity, model fitting, and temporal predictive accuracy. Experimental results on real-world medical datasets demonstrate that HRTPP outperforms state-of-the-art interpretable TPPs in terms of predictive performance and clinical interpretability. In case studies, the rules extracted by HRTPP explain the disease progression, offering valuable contributions to medical diagnosis.
Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) model discrete events distributed in time and space, with important applications in areas such as criminology, seismology, epidemiology, and social networks. Traditional models often rely on parametric kernels, limiting their ability to capture heterogeneous, nonstationary dynamics. Recent innovations integrate deep neural architectures -- either by modeling the conditional intensity function directly or by learning flexible, data-driven influence kernels, substantially broadening their expressive power. This article reviews the development of the deep influence kernel approach, which enjoys statistical explainability, since the influence kernel remains in the model to capture the spatiotemporal propagation of event influence and its impact on future events, while also possessing strong expressive power, thereby benefiting from both worlds. We explain the main components in developing deep kernel point processes, leveraging tools such as functional basis decomposition and graph neural networks to encode complex spatial or network structures, as well as estimation using both likelihood-based and likelihood-free methods, and address computational scalability for large-scale data. We also discuss the theoretical foundation of kernel identifiability. Simulated and real-data examples highlight applications to crime analysis, earthquake aftershock prediction, and sepsis prediction modeling, and we conclude by discussing promising directions for the field.
We introduce a very general approach to the analysis of signals from their noisy measurements from the perspective of Topological Data Analysis (TDA). While TDA has emerged as a powerful analytical tool for data with pronounced topological structures, here we demonstrate its applicability for general problems of signal processing, without any a-priori geometric feature. Our methods are well-suited to a wide array of time-dependent signals in different scientific domains, with acoustic signals being a particularly important application. We invoke time-frequency representations of such signals, focusing on their zeros which are gaining salience as a signal processing tool in view of their stability properties. Leveraging state-of-the-art topological concepts, such as stable and minimal volumes, we develop a complete suite of TDA-based methods to explore the delicate stochastic geometry of these zeros, capturing signals based on the disruption they cause to this rigid, hyperuniform spatial structure. Unlike classical spatial data tools, TDA is able to capture the full spectrum of the stochastic geometry of the zeros, thereby leading to powerful inferential outcomes that are underpinned by a principled statistical foundation. This is reflected in the power and versatility of our applications, which include competitive performance in processing. a wide variety of audio signals (esp. in low SNR regimes), effective detection and reconstruction of gravitational wave signals (a reputed signal processing challenge with non-Gaussian noise), and medical time series data from EEGs, indicating a wide horizon for the approach and methods introduced in this paper.
We consider a tick-by-tick model of price formation, in which buy and sell orders are modeled as self-exciting point processes (Hawkes process), similar to the one in [El Euch, Fukasawa, Rosenbaum, The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility, Finance and Stochastics, 2018]. We adopt an agent based approach by studying the aggregation of a large number of these point processes, mutually interacting in a mean-field sense. The financial interpretation is that of an asset on which several labeled agents place buy and sell orders following these point processes, influencing the price. The mean-field interaction introduces positive correlations between order volumes coming from different agents that reflect features of real markets such as herd behavior and contagion. When the large scale limit of the aggregated asset price is computed, if parameters are set to a critical value, a singular phenomenon occurs: the aggregated model converges to a stochastic volatility model with leverage effect and faster-than-linear mean reversion of the volatility process. The faster-than-linear mean reversion of the volatility process is supported by econometric evidence, and we have linked it in [Dai Pra, Pigato, Multi-scaling of moments in stochastic volatility models, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2015] to the observed multifractal behavior of assets prices and market indices. This seems connected to the Statistical Physics perspective that expects anomalous scaling properties to arise in the critical regime.
Modeling and predicting temporal point processes (TPPs) is critical in domains such as neuroscience, epidemiology, finance, and social sciences. We introduce the Spiking Dynamic Graph Network (SDGN), a novel framework that leverages the temporal processing capabilities of spiking neural networks (SNNs) and spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) to dynamically estimate underlying spatio-temporal functional graphs. Unlike existing methods that rely on predefined or static graph structures, SDGN adapts to any dataset by learning dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies directly from the event data, enhancing generalizability and robustness. While SDGN offers significant improvements over prior methods, we acknowledge its limitations in handling dense graphs and certain non-Gaussian dependencies, providing opportunities for future refinement. Our evaluations, conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets including NYC Taxi, 911, Reddit, and Stack Overflow, demonstrate that SDGN achieves superior predictive accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Furthermore, we include ablation studies to highlight the contributions of its core components.
Real-world event sequences are often generated by different temporal point processes (TPPs) and thus have clustering structures. Nonetheless, in the modeling and prediction of event sequences, most existing TPPs ignore the inherent clustering structures of the event sequences, leading to the models with unsatisfactory interpretability. In this study, we learn structure-enhanced TPPs with the help of Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) regularization, which imposes clustering structures on the sequence-level embeddings of the TPPs in the maximum likelihood estimation framework.In the training phase, the proposed method leverages a nonparametric TPP kernel to regularize the similarity matrix derived based on the sequence embeddings. In large-scale applications, we sample the kernel matrix and implement the regularization as a Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) discrepancy term, which achieves a trade-off between regularity and computational efficiency.The TPPs learned through this method result in clustered sequence embeddings and demonstrate competitive predictive and clustering performance, significantly improving the model interpretability without compromising prediction accuracy.
Realistic crowd simulations are essential for immersive virtual environments, relying on both individual behaviors (microscopic dynamics) and overall crowd patterns (macroscopic characteristics). While recent data-driven methods like deep reinforcement learning improve microscopic realism, they often overlook critical macroscopic features such as crowd density and flow, which are governed by spatio-temporal spawn dynamics, namely, when and where agents enter a scene. Traditional methods, like random spawn rates, stochastic processes, or fixed schedules, are not guaranteed to capture the underlying complexity or lack diversity and realism. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach called nTPP-GMM that models spatio-temporal spawn dynamics using Neural Temporal Point Processes (nTPPs) that are coupled with a spawn-conditional Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) for agent spawn and goal positions. We evaluate our approach by orchestrating crowd simulations of three diverse real-world datasets with nTPP-GMM. Our experiments demonstrate the orchestration with nTPP-GMM leads to realistic simulations that reflect real-world crowd scenarios and allow crowd analysis.
One of the most promising technologies for next-generation wireless networks is integrated communication and sensing (ISAC). It is considered a key enabler for applications that require both enhanced communication and accurate sensing capabilities. Examples of such applications include smart environments, augmented and virtual reality, or the internet of things, where the capabilities of intelligent sensing and broadband communications are vital. Therefore, ISAC has attracted the research interest of both academia and industry, and many investigations have been carried out over the past decade. The articles in the literature include system models, performance evaluation, and optimization studies of several ISAC alternative designs. Stochastic geometry is the study and analysis of random spatial patterns, and as such, stochastic geometry tools have been considered for the performance evaluation of wireless networks with different types of nodes. In this paper, we aim to provide a comprehensive survey of current research progress in performance evaluation of ISAC systems using stochastic geometry tools. The survey covers terrestrial, aerial, and vehicular networks, where the random spatial location of the corresponding network elements and propagation scatterers and/or blockages is treated with various point processes. The paper starts with a short tutorial on ISAC technology, stochastic geometry tools, and metrics used in performance evaluation of communication and sensing. Then, the technical components of the system models utilized in the surveyed papers are discussed. Subsequently, we present the key results of the literature in all types of networks using three levels of integration: sensing-assisted communication, communication-assisted sensing, and joint sensing and communication. Finally, future research challenges and promising directions are discussed.
Autonomous navigation in intelligent mobile systems represents a core research focus within artificial intelligence-driven robotics. Contemporary path planning approaches face constraints in dynamic environmental responsiveness and multi-objective task scalability, limiting their capacity to address growing intelligent operation requirements. Decision-centric reinforcement learning frameworks, capitalizing on their unique strengths in adaptive environmental interaction and self-optimization, have gained prominence in advanced control system research. This investigation introduces methodological improvements to address sample homogeneity challenges in reinforcement learning experience replay mechanisms. By incorporating determinant point processes (DPP) for diversity assessment, we develop a dual-criteria sampling framework with adaptive selection protocols. This approach resolves representation bias in conventional prioritized experience replay (PER) systems while preserving algorithmic interoperability, offering improved decision optimization for dynamic operational scenarios. Key contributions comprise: Develop a hybrid sampling paradigm (PER-DPP) combining priority sequencing with diversity maximization.Based on this,create an integrated optimization scheme (PER-DPP-Elastic DQN) merging diversity-aware sampling with adaptive step-size regulation. Comparative simulations in 2D navigation scenarios demonstrate that the elastic step-size component temporarily delays initial convergence speed but synergistically enhances final-stage optimization with PER-DPP integration. The synthesized method generates navigation paths with optimized length efficiency and directional stability.
This paper proposes a method to generate synthetic data for spatial point patterns within the differential privacy (DP) framework. Specifically, we define a differentially private Poisson point synthesizer (PPS) and Cox point synthesizer (CPS) to generate synthetic point patterns with the concept of the $\alpha$-neighborhood that relaxes the original definition of DP. We present three example models to construct a differentially private PPS and CPS, providing sufficient conditions on their parameters to ensure the DP given a specified privacy budget. In addition, we demonstrate that the synthesizers can be applied to point patterns on the linear network. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed approaches effectively maintain the privacy and utility of synthetic data.
Predicting medical events in advance within critical care settings is paramount for patient outcomes and resource management. Utilizing predictive models, healthcare providers can anticipate issues such as cardiac arrest, sepsis, or respiratory failure before they manifest. Recently, there has been a surge in research focusing on forecasting adverse medical event onsets prior to clinical manifestation using machine learning. However, while these models provide temporal prognostic predictions for the occurrence of a specific adverse event of interest within defined time intervals, their interpretability often remains a challenge. In this work, we explore the applicability of neural temporal point processes in the context of adverse event onset prediction, with the aim of explaining clinical pathways and providing interpretable insights. Our experiments span six state-of-the-art neural point processes and six critical care datasets, each focusing on the onset of distinct adverse events. This work represents a novel application class of neural temporal point processes in event prediction.
Spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs) are probabilistic models for events occurring in continuous space and time. Real-world event data often exhibit intricate dependencies and heterogeneous dynamics. By incorporating modern deep learning techniques, STPPs can model these complexities more effectively than traditional approaches. Consequently, the fusion of neural methods with STPPs has become an active and rapidly evolving research area. In this review, we categorize existing approaches, unify key design choices, and explain the challenges of working with this data modality. We further highlight emerging trends and diverse application domains. Finally, we identify open challenges and gaps in the literature.