Information cascade popularity prediction is critical for many applications, including but not limited to identifying fake news and accurate recommendations. Traditional feature-based methods heavily rely on handcrafted features, which are domain-specific and lack generalizability to new domains. To address this problem, researchers have turned to neural network-based approaches. However, most existing methods follow a sampling-based modeling approach, potentially losing continuous dynamic information that emerges during the information diffusion process. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical Temporal Graph Attention Networks for cascade popularity prediction (HierCas), which operates on the entire cascade graph by a dynamic graph modeling approach. By leveraging time-aware node embedding, graph attention mechanisms, and hierarchical pooling structures, HierCas effectively captures the popularity trend implicit in the complex cascade. Extensive experiments conducted on two real-world datasets in different scenarios demonstrate that our HierCas significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches. We have released our code at https://github.com/Daisy-zzz/HierCas.
Supervised learning, while prevalent for information cascade modeling, often requires abundant labeled data in training, and the trained model is not easy to generalize across tasks and datasets. It often learns task-specific representations, which can easily result in overfitting for downstream tasks. Recently, self-supervised learning is designed to alleviate these two fundamental issues in linguistic and visual tasks. However, its direct applicability for information cascade modeling, especially graph cascade related tasks, remains underexplored. In this work, we present Contrastive Cascade Graph Learning (CCGL), a novel framework for information cascade graph learning in a contrastive, self-supervised, and task-agnostic way. In particular, CCGL first designs an effective data augmentation strategy to capture variation and uncertainty by simulating the information diffusion in graphs. Second, it learns a generic model for graph cascade tasks via self-supervised contrastive pre-training using both unlabeled and labeled data. Third, CCGL learns a task-specific cascade model via fine-tuning using labeled data. Finally, to make the model transferable across datasets and cascade applications, CCGL further enhances the model via distillation using a teacher-student architecture. We demonstrate that CCGL significantly outperforms its supervised and semi-supervised counterparts for several downstream tasks.