Social networks can be a valuable source of information during crisis events. In particular, users can post a stream of multimodal data that can be critical for real-time humanitarian response. However, effectively extracting meaningful information from this large and noisy data stream and effectively integrating heterogeneous data remains a formidable challenge. In this work, we explore vision language models (VLMs) and advanced fusion strategies to enhance the classification of crisis data in three different tasks. We incorporate LLaVA-generated text to improve text-image alignment. Additionally, we leverage Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP)-based vision and text embeddings, which, without task-specific fine-tuning, outperform traditional models. To further refine multimodal fusion, we employ Guided Cross Attention (Guided CA) and combine it with the Differential Attention mechanism to enhance feature alignment by emphasizing critical information while filtering out irrelevant content. Our results show that while Differential Attention improves classification performance, Guided CA remains highly effective in aligning multimodal features. Extensive experiments on the CrisisMMD benchmark data set demonstrate that the combination of pretrained VLMs, enriched textual descriptions, and adaptive fusion strategies consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models in classification accuracy, contributing to more reliable and interpretable models for three different tasks that are crucial for disaster response. Our code is available at https://github.com/Munia03/Multimodal_Crisis_Event.
Forecasting violent conflict at high spatial and temporal resolution remains a central challenge for both researchers and policymakers. This study presents a novel neural network architecture for forecasting three distinct types of violence -- state-based, non-state, and one-sided -- at the subnational (priogrid-month) level, up to 36 months in advance. The model jointly performs classification and regression tasks, producing both probabilistic estimates and expected magnitudes of future events. It achieves state-of-the-art performance across all tasks and generates approximate predictive posterior distributions to quantify forecast uncertainty. The architecture is built on a Monte Carlo Dropout Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) U-Net, integrating convolutional layers to capture spatial dependencies with recurrent structures to model temporal dynamics. Unlike many existing approaches, it requires no manual feature engineering and relies solely on historical conflict data. This design enables the model to autonomously learn complex spatiotemporal patterns underlying violent conflict. Beyond achieving state-of-the-art predictive performance, the model is also highly extensible: it can readily integrate additional data sources and jointly forecast auxiliary variables. These capabilities make it a promising tool for early warning systems, humanitarian response planning, and evidence-based peacebuilding initiatives.
Aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip beginning October 7, 2023 is one of the most intense bombing campaigns of the twenty-first century, driving widespread urban damage. Characterizing damage over a geographically dynamic and protracted armed conflict requires active monitoring. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has precedence for mapping disaster-induced damage with bi-temporal methods but applications to active monitoring during sustained crises are limited. Using interferometric SAR data from Sentinel-1, we apply a long temporal-arc coherent change detection (LT-CCD) approach to track weekly damage trends over the first year of the 2023- Israel-Hamas War. We detect 92.5% of damage labels in reference data from the United Nations with a negligible (1.2%) false positive rate. The temporal fidelity of our approach reveals rapidly increasing damage during the first three months of the war focused in northern Gaza, a notable pause in damage during a temporary ceasefire, and surges of new damage as conflict hot-spots shift from north to south. Three-fifths (191,263) of all buildings are damaged or destroyed by the end of the study. With massive need for timely data on damage in armed conflict zones, our low-cost and low-latency approach enables rapid uptake of damage information at humanitarian and journalistic organizations.
Object detectors have achieved remarkable performance in many applications; however, these deep learning models are typically designed under the i.i.d. assumption, meaning they are trained and evaluated on data sampled from the same (source) distribution. In real-world deployment, however, target distributions often differ from source data, leading to substantial performance degradation. Domain Generalisation (DG) seeks to bridge this gap by enabling models to generalise to Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data without access to target distributions during training, enhancing robustness to unseen conditions. In this work, we examine the generalisability and robustness of state-of-the-art object detectors under real-world distribution shifts, focusing particularly on spatial domain shifts. Despite the need, a standardised benchmark dataset specifically designed for assessing object detection under realistic DG scenarios is currently lacking. To address this, we introduce Real-World Distribution Shifts (RWDS), a suite of three novel DG benchmarking datasets that focus on humanitarian and climate change applications. These datasets enable the investigation of domain shifts across (i) climate zones and (ii) various disasters and geographic regions. To our knowledge, these are the first DG benchmarking datasets tailored for object detection in real-world, high-impact contexts. We aim for these datasets to serve as valuable resources for evaluating the robustness and generalisation of future object detection models. Our datasets and code are available at https://github.com/RWGAI/RWDS.
Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used across sectors, yet their alignment with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is not well understood. This study evaluates eight leading LLMs on their ability to refuse prompts that explicitly violate these legal frameworks, focusing also on helpfulness - how clearly and constructively refusals are communicated. While most models rejected unlawful requests, the clarity and consistency of their responses varied. By revealing the model's rationale and referencing relevant legal or safety principles, explanatory refusals clarify the system's boundaries, reduce ambiguity, and help prevent misuse. A standardised system-level safety prompt significantly improved the quality of the explanations expressed within refusals in most models, highlighting the effectiveness of lightweight interventions. However, more complex prompts involving technical language or requests for code revealed ongoing vulnerabilities. These findings contribute to the development of safer, more transparent AI systems and propose a benchmark to evaluate the compliance of LLM with IHL.
The conflict in Ukraine has been not only characterised by military engagement but also by a significant information war, with social media platforms like X, formerly known as Twitter playing an important role in shaping public perception. This article provides an analysis of tweets from propaganda accounts and trusted accounts collected from the onset of the war, February 2022 until the middle of May 2022 with n=40,000 total tweets. We utilise natural language processing and machine learning algorithms to assess the sentiment and identify key themes, topics and narratives across the dataset with human-in-the-loop (HITL) analysis throughout. Our findings indicate distinct strategies in how information is created, spread, and targeted at different audiences by both sides. Propaganda accounts frequently employ emotionally charged language and disinformation to evoke fear and distrust, whereas other accounts, primarily Western tend to focus on factual reporting and humanitarian aspects of the conflict. Clustering analysis reveals groups of accounts with similar behaviours, which we suspect indicates the presence of coordinated efforts. This research attempts to contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of information warfare and offers techniques for future studies on social media influence in military conflicts.
The use of robotics in humanitarian demining increasingly involves computer vision techniques to improve landmine detection capabilities. However, in the absence of diverse and realistic datasets, the reliable validation of algorithms remains a challenge for the research community. In this paper, we introduce MineInsight, a publicly available multi-sensor, multi-spectral dataset designed for off-road landmine detection. The dataset features 35 different targets (15 landmines and 20 commonly found objects) distributed along three distinct tracks, providing a diverse and realistic testing environment. MineInsight is, to the best of our knowledge, the first dataset to integrate dual-view sensor scans from both an Unmanned Ground Vehicle and its robotic arm, offering multiple viewpoints to mitigate occlusions and improve spatial awareness. It features two LiDARs, as well as images captured at diverse spectral ranges, including visible (RGB, monochrome), visible short-wave infrared (VIS-SWIR), and long-wave infrared (LWIR). Additionally, the dataset comes with an estimation of the location of the targets, offering a benchmark for evaluating detection algorithms. We recorded approximately one hour of data in both daylight and nighttime conditions, resulting in around 38,000 RGB frames, 53,000 VIS-SWIR frames, and 108,000 LWIR frames. MineInsight serves as a benchmark for developing and evaluating landmine detection algorithms. Our dataset is available at https://github.com/mariomlz99/MineInsight.
Timely and accurate situation awareness is vital for decision-making in humanitarian response, conflict monitoring, and early warning and early action. However, the manual analysis of vast and heterogeneous data sources often results in delays, limiting the effectiveness of interventions. This paper introduces a dynamic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) system that autonomously generates situation awareness reports by integrating real-time data from diverse sources, including news articles, conflict event databases, and economic indicators. Our system constructs query-specific knowledge bases on demand, ensuring timely, relevant, and accurate insights. To ensure the quality of generated reports, we propose a three-level evaluation framework that combines semantic similarity metrics, factual consistency checks, and expert feedback. The first level employs automated NLP metrics to assess coherence and factual accuracy. The second level involves human expert evaluation to verify the relevance and completeness of the reports. The third level utilizes LLM-as-a-Judge, where large language models provide an additional layer of assessment to ensure robustness. The system is tested across multiple real-world scenarios, demonstrating its effectiveness in producing coherent, insightful, and actionable reports. By automating report generation, our approach reduces the burden on human analysts and accelerates decision-making processes. To promote reproducibility and further research, we openly share our code and evaluation tools with the community via GitHub.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across natural language tasks, but their ability to forecast violent conflict remains underexplored. We investigate whether LLMs possess meaningful parametric knowledge-encoded in their pretrained weights-to predict conflict escalation and fatalities without external data. This is critical for early warning systems, humanitarian planning, and policy-making. We compare this parametric knowledge with non-parametric capabilities, where LLMs access structured and unstructured context from conflict datasets (e.g., ACLED, GDELT) and recent news reports via Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Incorporating external information could enhance model performance by providing up-to-date context otherwise missing from pretrained weights. Our two-part evaluation framework spans 2020-2024 across conflict-prone regions in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. In the parametric setting, LLMs predict conflict trends and fatalities relying only on pretrained knowledge. In the non-parametric setting, models receive summaries of recent conflict events, indicators, and geopolitical developments. We compare predicted conflict trend labels (e.g., Escalate, Stable Conflict, De-escalate, Peace) and fatalities against historical data. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations of LLMs for conflict forecasting and the benefits of augmenting them with structured external knowledge.
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these predictions into potential forced displacement movements remains challenging because it is often unclear which precise events will trigger significant population movements. This paper presents a novel monitoring approach for refugee and asylum seeker flows that addresses this challenge. Using gradient boosting classification, we combine conflict forecasts with a comprehensive set of economic, political, and demographic variables to assess two distinct risks at the country of origin: the likelihood of significant displacement flows and the probability of sudden increases in these flows. The model generates country-specific monthly risk indices for these two events with prediction horizons of one, three, and six months. Our analysis shows high accuracy in predicting significant displacement flows and good accuracy in forecasting sudden increases in displacement--the latter being inherently more difficult to predict, given the complexity of displacement triggers. We achieve these results by including predictive factors beyond conflict, thereby demonstrating that forced displacement risks can be assessed through an integrated analysis of multiple country-level indicators. Whilst these risk indices provide valuable quantitative support for humanitarian planning, they should always be understood as decision-support tools within a broader analytical framework.
Natural disasters often result in a surge of social media activity, including requests for assistance, offers of help, sentiments, and general updates. To enable humanitarian organizations to respond more efficiently, we propose a fine-grained hierarchical taxonomy to systematically organize crisis-related information about requests and offers into three critical dimensions: supplies, emergency personnel, and actions. Leveraging the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce Query-Specific Few-shot Learning (QSF Learning) that retrieves class-specific labeled examples from an embedding database to enhance the model's performance in detecting and classifying posts. Beyond classification, we assess the actionability of messages to prioritize posts requiring immediate attention. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms baseline prompting strategies, effectively identifying and prioritizing actionable requests and offers.
A timely and effective response is crucial to minimize damage and save lives during natural disasters like earthquakes. Microblogging platforms, particularly Twitter, have emerged as valuable real-time information sources for such events. This work explores the potential of leveraging Twitter data for earthquake response analysis. We develop a machine learning (ML) framework by incorporating natural language processing (NLP) techniques to extract and analyze relevant information from tweets posted during earthquake events. The approach primarily focuses on extracting location data from tweets to identify affected areas, generating severity maps, and utilizing WebGIS to display valuable information. The insights gained from this analysis can aid emergency responders, government agencies, humanitarian organizations, and NGOs in enhancing their disaster response strategies and facilitating more efficient resource allocation during earthquake events.
As national security institutions increasingly integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI) into decision-making and content generation processes, understanding the inherent biases of large language models (LLMs) is crucial. This study presents a novel benchmark designed to evaluate the biases and preferences of seven prominent foundation models-Llama 3.1 8B Instruct, Llama 3.1 70B Instruct, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro-002, Mixtral 8x22B, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Qwen2 72B-in the context of international relations (IR). We designed a bias discovery study around core topics in IR using 400-expert crafted scenarios to analyze results from our selected models. These scenarios focused on four topical domains including: military escalation, military and humanitarian intervention, cooperative behavior in the international system, and alliance dynamics. Our analysis reveals noteworthy variation among model recommendations based on scenarios designed for the four tested domains. Particularly, Qwen2 72B, Gemini 1.5 Pro-002 and Llama 3.1 8B Instruct models offered significantly more escalatory recommendations than Claude 3.5 Sonnet and GPT-4o models. All models exhibit some degree of country-specific biases, often recommending less escalatory and interventionist actions for China and Russia compared to the United States and the United Kingdom. These findings highlight the necessity for controlled deployment of LLMs in high-stakes environments, emphasizing the need for domain-specific evaluations and model fine-tuning to align with institutional objectives.
Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents challenges, including incomplete data, poor data quality, and the need to account for multiple geographical and product factors. Current methods often rely on simple forecasting techniques, which fail to capture demand uncertainties arising from these factors, warranting expert involvement. Our study aims to improve contraceptive demand forecasting by combining probabilistic forecasting methods with expert knowledge. We developed a hybrid model that combines point forecasts from domain-specific model with probabilistic distributions from statistical and machine learning approaches, enabling human input to fine-tune and enhance the system-generated forecasts. This approach helps address the uncertainties in demand and is particularly useful in resource-limited settings. We evaluate different forecasting methods, including time series, Bayesian, machine learning, and foundational time series methods alongside our new hybrid approach. By comparing these methods, we provide insights into their strengths, weaknesses, and computational requirements. Our research fills a gap in forecasting contraceptive demand and offers a practical framework that combines algorithmic and human expertise. Our proposed model can also be generalized to other humanitarian contexts with similar data patterns.
The autonomy and adaptability of (Lethal) Autonomous Weapons Systems, (L)AWS in short, promise unprecedented operational capabilities, but they also introduce profound risks that challenge the principles of control, accountability, and stability in international security. This report outlines the key technological risks associated with (L)AWS deployment, emphasizing their unpredictability, lack of transparency, and operational unreliability, which can lead to severe unintended consequences. Key Takeaways: 1. Proposed advantages of (L)AWS can only be achieved through objectification and classification, but a range of systematic risks limit the reliability and predictability of classifying algorithms. 2. These systematic risks include the black-box nature of AI decision-making, susceptibility to reward hacking, goal misgeneralization and potential for emergent behaviors that escape human control. 3. (L)AWS could act in ways that are not just unexpected but also uncontrollable, undermining mission objectives and potentially escalating conflicts. 4. Even rigorously tested systems may behave unpredictably and harmfully in real-world conditions, jeopardizing both strategic stability and humanitarian principles.
Food security is a complex, multidimensional concept challenging to measure comprehensively. Effective anticipation, monitoring, and mitigation of food crises require timely and comprehensive global data. This paper introduces the Harmonized Food Insecurity Dataset (HFID), an open-source resource consolidating four key data sources: the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)/Cadre Harmonis\'e (CH) phases, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) IPC-compatible phases, and the World Food Program's (WFP) Food Consumption Score (FCS) and reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI). Updated monthly and using a common reference system for administrative units, the HFID offers extensive spatial and temporal coverage. It serves as a vital tool for food security experts and humanitarian agencies, providing a unified resource for analyzing food security conditions and highlighting global data disparities. The scientific community can also leverage the HFID to develop data-driven predictive models, enhancing the capacity to forecast and prevent future food crises.
This study advances the field of conflict forecasting by using text-based actor embeddings with transformer models to predict dynamic changes in violent conflict patterns at the actor level. More specifically, we combine newswire texts with structured conflict event data and leverage recent advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to forecast escalations and de-escalations among conflicting actors, such as governments, militias, separatist movements, and terrorists. This new approach accurately and promptly captures the inherently volatile patterns of violent conflicts, which existing methods have not been able to achieve. To create this framework, we began by curating and annotating a vast international newswire corpus, leveraging hand-labeled event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. By using this hybrid dataset, our models can incorporate the textual context of news sources along with the precision and detail of structured event data. This combination enables us to make both dynamic and granular predictions about conflict developments. We validate our approach through rigorous back-testing against historical events, demonstrating superior out-of-sample predictive power. We find that our approach is quite effective in identifying and predicting phases of conflict escalation and de-escalation, surpassing the capabilities of traditional models. By focusing on actor interactions, our explicit goal is to provide actionable insights to policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and peacekeeping operations in order to enable targeted and effective intervention strategies.
Non-invasive, efficient, physical token-less, accurate and stable identification methods for newborns may prevent baby swapping at birth, limit baby abductions and improve post-natal health monitoring across geographies, within the context of both the formal (i.e., hospitals) and informal (i.e., humanitarian and fragile settings) health sectors. This paper explores the feasibility of application iris recognition to build biometric identifiers for 4-6 week old infants. We (a) collected near infrared (NIR) iris images from 17 infants using a specially-designed NIR iris sensor; (b) evaluated six iris recognition methods to assess readiness of the state-of-the-art iris recognition to be applied to newborns and infants; (c) proposed a new segmentation model that correctly detects iris texture within infants iris images, and coupled it with several iris texture encoding approaches to offer, to the first of our knowledge, a fully-operational infant iris recognition system; and, (d) trained a StyleGAN-based model to synthesize iris images mimicking samples acquired from infants to deliver to the research community privacy-safe infant iris images. The proposed system, incorporating the specially-designed iris sensor and segmenter, and applied to the collected infant iris samples, achieved Equal Error Rate (EER) of 3\% and Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) of 99\%, compared to EER$\geq$20\% and AUC$\leq$88\% obtained for state of the art adult iris recognition systems. This suggests that it may be feasible to design methods that succesfully extract biometric features from infant irises.
Natural Language Processing (NLP) of news articles can play an important role in understanding the dynamics and causes of violent conflict. Despite the availability of datasets categorizing various conflict events, the existing labels often do not cover all of the fine-grained violent conflict event types relevant to areas like the Horn of Africa. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark dataset Conflict Events in the Horn of Africa region (CEHA) and propose a new task for identifying violent conflict events using online resources with this dataset. The dataset consists of 500 English event descriptions regarding conflict events in the Horn of Africa region with fine-grained event-type definitions that emphasize the cause of the conflict. This dataset categorizes the key types of conflict risk according to specific areas required by stakeholders in the Humanitarian-Peace-Development Nexus. Additionally, we conduct extensive experiments on two tasks supported by this dataset: Event-relevance Classification and Event-type Classification. Our baseline models demonstrate the challenging nature of these tasks and the usefulness of our dataset for model evaluations in low-resource settings with limited number of training data.
Internet of Things (IoT) based healthcare systems offer significant potential for improving the delivery of healthcare services in humanitarian engineering, providing essential healthcare services to millions of underserved people in remote areas worldwide. However, these areas have poor network infrastructure, making communications difficult for traditional IoT. This paper presents a real-time chest X-ray classification system for hospitals in remote areas using FastDDS real-time middleware, offering reliable real-time communication. We fine-tuned a ResNet50 neural network to an accuracy of 88.61%, a precision of 88.76%, and a recall of 88.49\%. Our system results mark an average throughput of 3.2 KB/s and an average latency of 65 ms. The proposed system demonstrates how middleware-based systems can assist doctors in remote locations.