Reasoning about temporal causality, particularly irreversible transformations of objects governed by real-world knowledge (e.g., fruit decay and human aging), is a fundamental aspect of human visual understanding. Unlike temporal perception based on simple event sequences, this form of reasoning requires a deeper comprehension of how object states change over time. Although the current powerful Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on a wide range of downstream tasks, their capacity to reason about temporal causality remains underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{TimeCausality}, a novel benchmark specifically designed to evaluate the causal reasoning ability of VLMs in the temporal dimension. Based on our TimeCausality, we find that while the current SOTA open-source VLMs have achieved performance levels comparable to closed-source models like GPT-4o on various standard visual question answering tasks, they fall significantly behind on our benchmark compared with their closed-source competitors. Furthermore, even GPT-4o exhibits a marked drop in performance on TimeCausality compared to its results on other tasks. These findings underscore the critical need to incorporate temporal causality into the evaluation and development of VLMs, and they highlight an important challenge for the open-source VLM community moving forward. Code and Data are available at \href{https://github.com/Zeqing-Wang/TimeCausality }{TimeCausality}.
Thousands of metabolomic papers are published each year, creating challenges for scientists to combine results and yield conclusions that span across studies. Literature databases such as the Human Metabolome Database provide summaries of metabolite detections and relevance, but it does not focus on specific processes, such as aging. Another database, MetaboAge, focuses specifically on how metabolite concentrations change with age. However, both databases can only search metabolites individually. Both databases lack an easily displayed overview of all the information provided, and they do not combine datasets to validate results across studies. This project aims to design a database from data extracted from the literature that cover studies across species, include query options, and combine data to get statistically sound results. The Aging Metabolite Database summarizes aging-related information for almost 2,700 non-unique metabolites and was created from 104 publications. A sub-database was created to focus on metabolite plasma levels in human aging and, including metadata from 27 papers. This resulted in 6,500 data points from 1,167 metabolites. 12 of these papers were selected for the summary results section of the database. Across these 12 studies, 53 common metabolites were reported and can be queried in 163 summary statistics, for example by age and sex. Summary statistics are provided for all aging and sex combinations. This information assists users to compare the results of their own age-related studies to published literature. Combining multiple datasets results in a more solid understanding of validated metabolic changes during the aging process.
The ability to accurately recognize an individual's face with respect to human aging factor holds significant importance for various private as well as government sectors such as customs and public security bureaus, passport office, and national database systems. Therefore, developing a robust age-invariant face recognition system is of crucial importance to address the challenges posed by ageing and maintain the reliability and accuracy of facial recognition technology. In this research work, the focus is to explore the feasibility of utilizing synthetic ageing data to improve the robustness of face recognition models that can eventually help in recognizing people at broader age intervals. To achieve this, we first design set of experiments to evaluate state-of-the-art synthetic ageing methods. In the next stage we explore the effect of age intervals on a current deep learning-based face recognition algorithm by using synthetic ageing data as well as real ageing data to perform rigorous training and validation. Moreover, these synthetic age data have been used in facilitating face recognition algorithms. Experimental results show that the recognition rate of the model trained on synthetic ageing images is 3.33% higher than the results of the baseline model when tested on images with an age gap of 40 years, which prove the potential of synthetic age data which has been quantified to enhance the performance of age-invariant face recognition systems.
Human aging is a process controlled by both genetics and environment. Many studies have been conducted to identify a subset of genes related to aging from the human genome. Biologists implicitly categorize age-related genes into genes that cause aging and genes that are influenced by aging, which resulted in both causal inference and inference of associations studies. While inference of association is better explored, causal inference and computational causal inference, remains less explored. In this work, we are primarily motivated to tackle the problem of identifying genes associated with aging, while having a brief look into genes with probable causal relations, both from a computational perspective. Specifically, we form a set of hypotheses and accordingly, introduce a data-tailored framework for inference. First we perform linear modeling on the expression values of age-related genes, and then examine the presence of heteroskedastic properties in the residual of the model. We evaluate this framework and our results suggest that, 1) presence of heteroskedasticity in these residuals is a potential signature of association for age-related genes, and 2) consistent heteroskedasticity along the human life span could imply some sort of causality. To our knowledge, along with identifying age-associated genes, this is the first work to propose a framework for computational causal inference on age-related genes, using a dataset of human dermal fibroblast gene expression data. Hence the results of our simple, yet effective approach can be used not only to assess future age-related genes, but also as a possible criterion to select new associative or potential causal genes with respect to aging.
We model the effects of disease and other exogenous damage during human aging. Even when the exogenous damage is repaired at the end of acute disease, propagated secondary damage remains. We consider both short-term mortality effects due to (acute) exogenous damage and long-term mortality effects due to propagated damage within the context of a generic network model (GNM) of individual aging that simulates a U.S. population. Across a wide range of disease durations and severities we find that while excess short-term mortality is highest for the oldest individuals, the long-term years of life lost are highest for the youngest individuals. These appear to be universal effects of human disease. We support this conclusion with a phenomenological model coupling damage and mortality. Our results are consistent with previous lifetime mortality studies of atom bomb survivors and post-recovery health studies of COVID-19. We suggest that short-term health impact studies could complement lifetime mortality studies to better characterize the lifetime impacts of disease on both individuals and populations.
Identification of human genes involved in the aging process is critical due to the incidence of many diseases with age. A state-of-the-art approach for this purpose infers a weighted dynamic aging-specific subnetwork by mapping gene expression (GE) levels at different ages onto the protein-protein interaction network (PPIN). Then, it analyzes this subnetwork in a supervised manner by training a predictive model to learn how network topologies of known aging- vs. non-aging-related genes change across ages. Finally, it uses the trained model to predict novel aging-related genes. However, the best current subnetwork resulting from this approach still yields suboptimal prediction accuracy. This could be because it was inferred using outdated GE and PPIN data. Here, we evaluate whether analyzing a weighted dynamic aging-specific subnetwork inferred from newer GE and PPIN data improves prediction accuracy upon analyzing the best current subnetwork inferred from outdated data. Unexpectedly, we find that not to be the case. To understand this, we perform aging-related pathway and Gene Ontology (GO) term enrichment analyses. We find that the suboptimal prediction accuracy, regardless of which GE or PPIN data is used, may be caused by the current knowledge about which genes are aging-related being incomplete, or by the current methods for inferring or analyzing an aging-specific subnetwork being unable to capture all of the aging-related knowledge. These findings can potentially guide future directions towards improving supervised prediction of aging-related genes via -omics data integration.
Language modelling provides a step towards intelligent communication systems by harnessing large repositories of written human knowledge to better predict and understand the world. In this paper, we present an analysis of Transformer-based language model performance across a wide range of model scales -- from models with tens of millions of parameters up to a 280 billion parameter model called Gopher. These models are evaluated on 152 diverse tasks, achieving state-of-the-art performance across the majority. Gains from scale are largest in areas such as reading comprehension, fact-checking, and the identification of toxic language, but logical and mathematical reasoning see less benefit. We provide a holistic analysis of the training dataset and model's behaviour, covering the intersection of model scale with bias and toxicity. Finally we discuss the application of language models to AI safety and the mitigation of downstream harms.
The adaptive immune system responds to pathogens by selecting clones of cells with specific receptors. While clonal selection in response to particular antigens has been studied in detail, it is unknown how a lifetime of exposures to many antigens collectively shape the immune repertoire. Here, through mathematical modeling and statistical analyses of T cell receptor sequencing data we demonstrate that clonal expansions during a perinatal time window leave a long-lasting imprint on the human T cell repertoire. We demonstrate how the empirical scaling law relating the rank of the largest clones to their size can emerge from clonal growth during repertoire formation. We statistically identify early founded clones and find that they are indeed highly enriched among the largest clones. This enrichment persists even after decades of human aging, in a way that is quantitatively predicted by a model of fluctuating clonal selection. Our work presents a quantitative theory of human T cell dynamics compatible with the statistical laws of repertoire organization and provides a mechanism for how early clonal dynamics imprint the hierarchy of T cell clone sizes with implications for pathogen defense and autoimmunity.
Background. Human aging is linked to many prevalent diseases. The aging process is highly influenced by genetic factors. Hence, it is important to identify human aging-related genes. We focus on supervised prediction of such genes. Gene expression-based methods for this purpose study genes in isolation from each other. While protein-protein interaction (PPI) network-based methods for this purpose account for interactions between genes' protein products, current PPI network data are context-unspecific, spanning different biological conditions. Instead, here, we focus on an aging-specific subnetwork of the entire PPI network, obtained by integrating aging-specific gene expression data and PPI network data. The potential of such data integration has been recognized but mostly in the context of cancer. So, we are the first to propose a supervised learning framework for predicting aging-related genes from an aging-specific PPI subnetwork. Results. In a systematic and comprehensive evaluation, we find that in many of the evaluation tests: (i) using an aging-specific subnetwork indeed yields more accurate aging-related gene predictions than using the entire network, and (ii) predictive methods from our framework that have not previously been used for supervised prediction of aging-related genes outperform existing prominent methods for the same purpose. Conclusion. These results justify the need for our framework.
Gene expression (GE) data capture valuable condition-specific information ("condition" can mean a biological process, disease stage, age, patient, etc.) However, GE analyses ignore physical interactions between gene products, i.e., proteins. Since proteins function by interacting with each other, and since biological networks (BNs) capture these interactions, BN analyses are promising. However, current BN data fail to capture condition-specific information. Recently, GE and BN data have been integrated using network propagation (NP) to infer condition-specific BNs. However, existing NP-based studies result in a static condition-specific subnetwork, even though cellular processes are dynamic. A dynamic process of our interest is human aging. We use prominent existing NP methods in a new task of inferring a dynamic rather than static condition-specific (aging-related) subnetwork. Then, we study evolution of network structure with age - we identify proteins whose network positions significantly change with age and predict them as new aging-related candidates. We validate the predictions via e.g., functional enrichment analyses and literature search. Dynamic network inference via NP yields higher prediction quality than the only existing method for inferring a dynamic aging-related BN, which does not use NP.
We address the problem of single photo age progression and regression-the prediction of how a person might look in the future, or how they looked in the past. Most existing aging methods are limited to changing the texture, overlooking transformations in head shape that occur during the human aging and growth process. This limits the applicability of previous methods to aging of adults to slightly older adults, and application of those methods to photos of children does not produce quality results. We propose a novel multi-domain image-to-image generative adversarial network architecture, whose learned latent space models a continuous bi-directional aging process. The network is trained on the FFHQ dataset, which we labeled for ages, gender, and semantic segmentation. Fixed age classes are used as anchors to approximate continuous age transformation. Our framework can predict a full head portrait for ages 0-70 from a single photo, modifying both texture and shape of the head. We demonstrate results on a wide variety of photos and datasets, and show significant improvement over the state of the art.
Vocal aging, a universal process of human aging, can largely affect one's language use, possibly including some subtle acoustic features of one's utterances like Voice Onset Time. To figure out the time effects, Queen Elizabeth's Christmas speeches are documented and analyzed in the long-term trend. We build statistical models of time dependence in Voice Onset Time, controlling a wide range of other fixed factors, to present annual variations and the simulated trajectory. It is revealed that the variation range of Voice Onset Time has been narrowing over fifty years with a slight reduction in the mean value, which, possibly, is an effect of diminishing exertion, resulting from subdued muscle contraction, transcending other non-linguistic factors in forming Voice Onset Time patterns over a long time.
Age synthesis is a challenging task due to the complicated and non-linear transformation in human aging process. Aging information is usually reflected in local facial parts, such as wrinkles at the eye corners. However, these local facial parts contribute less in previous GAN based methods for age synthesis. To address this issue, we propose a Wavelet-domain Global and Local Consistent Age Generative Adversarial Network (WaveletGLCA-GAN), in which one global specific network and three local specific networks are integrated together to capture both global topology information and local texture details of human faces. Different from the most existing methods that modeling age synthesis in image-domain, we adopt wavelet transform to depict the textual information in frequency-domain. %Moreover, to achieve accurate age generation under the premise of preserving the identity information, age estimation network and face verification network are employed. Moreover, five types of losses are adopted: 1) adversarial loss aims to generate realistic wavelets; 2) identity preserving loss aims to better preserve identity information; 3) age preserving loss aims to enhance the accuracy of age synthesis; 4) pixel-wise loss aims to preserve the background information of the input face; 5) the total variation regularization aims to remove ghosting artifacts. Our method is evaluated on three face aging datasets, including CACD2000, Morph and FG-NET. Qualitative and quantitative experiments show the superiority of the proposed method over other state-of-the-arts.
Modeling how individuals evolve over time is a fundamental problem in the natural and social sciences. However, existing datasets are often cross-sectional with each individual observed only once, making it impossible to apply traditional time-series methods. Motivated by the study of human aging, we present an interpretable latent-variable model that learns temporal dynamics from cross-sectional data. Our model represents each individual's features over time as a nonlinear function of a low-dimensional, linearly-evolving latent state. We prove that when this nonlinear function is constrained to be order-isomorphic, the model family is identifiable solely from cross-sectional data provided the distribution of time-independent variation is known. On the UK Biobank human health dataset, our model reconstructs the observed data while learning interpretable rates of aging associated with diseases, mortality, and aging risk factors.
Automated face recognition and identification softwares are becoming part of our daily life; it finds its abode not only with Facebook's auto photo tagging, Apple's iPhoto, Google's Picasa, Microsoft's Kinect, but also in Homeland Security Department's dedicated biometric face detection systems. Most of these automatic face identification systems fail where the effects of aging come into the picture. Little work exists in the literature on the subject of face prediction that accounts for aging, which is a vital part of the computer face recognition systems. In recent years, individual face components' (e.g. eyes, nose, mouth) features based matching algorithms have emerged, but these approaches are still not efficient. Therefore, in this work we describe a Face Prediction Model (FPM), which predicts human face aging or growth related image variation using Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) learning techniques. The FPM captures the facial changes, which occur with human aging and predicts the facial image with a few years of gap with an acceptable accuracy of face matching from 76 to 86%.
Face age progression, which aims to predict the future looks, is important for various applications and has been received considerable attentions. Existing methods and datasets are limited in exploring the effects of occupations which may influence the personal appearances. In this paper, we firstly introduce an occupational face aging dataset for studying the influences of occupations on the appearances. It includes five occupations, which enables the development of new algorithms for age progression and facilitate future researches. Second, we propose a new occupational-aware adversarial face aging network, which learns human aging process under different occupations. Two factors are taken into consideration in our aging process: personality-preserving and visually plausible texture change for different occupations. We propose personalized network with personalized loss in deep autoencoder network for keeping personalized facial characteristics, and occupational-aware adversarial network with occupational-aware adversarial loss for obtaining more realistic texture changes. Experimental results well demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method by comparing with other state-of-the-arts age progression methods.
Age progression/regression is a challenging task due to the complicated and non-linear transformation in human aging process. Many researches have shown that both global and local facial features are essential for face representation, but previous GAN based methods mainly focused on the global feature in age synthesis. To utilize both global and local facial information, we propose a Global and Local Consistent Age Generative Adversarial Network (GLCA-GAN). In our generator, a global network learns the whole facial structure and simulates the aging trend of the whole face, while three crucial facial patches are progressed or regressed by three local networks aiming at imitating subtle changes of crucial facial subregions. To preserve most of the details in age-attribute-irrelevant areas, our generator learns the residual face. Moreover, we employ an identity preserving loss to better preserve the identity information, as well as age preserving loss to enhance the accuracy of age synthesis. A pixel loss is also adopted to preserve detailed facial information of the input face. Our proposed method is evaluated on three face aging datasets, i.e., CACD dataset, Morph dataset and FG-NET dataset. Experimental results show appealing performance of the proposed method by comparing with the state-of-the-art.