The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players' and coordinated teams' behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual).
In this paper we present a novel approach to optimise tactical and strategic decision making in football (soccer). We model the game of football as a multi-stage game which is made up from a Bayesian game to model the pre-match decisions and a stochastic game to model the in-match state transitions and decisions. Using this formulation, we propose a method to predict the probability of game outcomes and the payoffs of team actions. Building upon this, we develop algorithms to optimise team formation and in-game tactics with different objectives. Empirical evaluation of our approach on real-world datasets from 760 matches shows that by using optimised tactics from our Bayesian and stochastic games, we can increase a team chances of winning by up to 16.1\% and 3.4\% respectively.
A parametric model is developed and fitted to English league and cup football data from 1992 to 1995. The model is motivated by an aim to exploit potential inefficiencies in the association football betting market, and this is examined using bookmakers' odds from 1995 to 1996. The technique is based on a Poisson regression model but is complicated by the data structure and the dynamic nature of teams' performances. Maximum likelihood estimates are shown to be computationally obtainable, and the model is shown to have a positive return when used as the basis of a betting strategy.
Soccer ball detection is identified as one of the critical challenges in the RoboCup competition. It requires an efficient vision system capable of handling the task of detection with high precision and recall and providing robust and low inference time. In this work, we present a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) approach to detect the soccer ball in an image sequence. In contrast to the existing methods where only the current frame or an image is used for the detection, we make use of the history of frames. Using history allows to efficiently track the ball in situations where the ball disappears or gets partially occluded in some of the frames. Our approach exploits spatio-temporal correlation and detects the ball based on the trajectory of its movements. We present our results with three convolutional methods, namely temporal convolutional networks (TCN), ConvLSTM, and ConvGRU. We first solve the detection task for an image using fully convolutional encoder-decoder architecture, and later, we use it as an input to our temporal models and jointly learn the detection task in sequences of images. We evaluate all our experiments on a novel dataset prepared as a part of this work. Furthermore, we present empirical results to support the effectiveness of using the history of the ball in challenging scenarios.
Recent progress in the field of reinforcement learning has been accelerated by virtual learning environments such as video games, where novel algorithms and ideas can be quickly tested in a safe and reproducible manner. We introduce the Google Research Football Environment, a new reinforcement learning environment where agents are trained to play football in an advanced, physics-based 3D simulator. The resulting environment is challenging, easy to use and customize, and it is available under a permissive open-source license. In addition, it provides support for multiplayer and multi-agent experiments. We propose three full-game scenarios of varying difficulty with the Football Benchmarks and report baseline results for three commonly used reinforcement algorithms (IMPALA, PPO, and Ape-X DQN). We also provide a diverse set of simpler scenarios with the Football Academy and showcase several promising research directions.
A knowledgeable observer of a game of football (soccer) can make a subjective evaluation of the quality of passes made between players during the game. We investigate the problem of producing an automated system to make the same evaluation of passes. We present a model that constructs numerical predictor variables from spatiotemporal match data using feature functions based on methods from computational geometry, and then learns a classification function from labelled examples of the predictor variables. Furthermore, the learned classifiers are analysed to determine if there is a relationship between the complexity of the algorithm that computed the predictor variable and the importance of the variable to the classifier. Experimental results show that we are able to produce a classifier with 85.8% accuracy on classifying passes as Good, OK or Bad, and that the predictor variables computed using complex methods from computational geometry are of moderate importance to the learned classifiers. Finally, we show that the inter-rater agreement on pass classification between the machine classifier and a human observer is of similar magnitude to the agreement between two observers.
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can be used for this purpose. We built a set of predictive models for the outcome of football games of the English Premier League for a 3 month period based on tweets and we studied whether these models can overcome predictive models which use only historical data and simple football statistics. Moreover, combined models are constructed using both Twitter and historical data. The final results indicate that data mined from Twitter can indeed be a useful source for predicting games in the Premier League. The final Twitter-based model performs significantly better than chance when measured by Cohen's kappa and is comparable to the model that uses simple statistics and historical data. Combining both models raises the performance higher than it was achieved by each individual model. Thereby, this study provides evidence that Twitter derived features can indeed provide useful information for the prediction of football (soccer) outcomes.
The goal of this thesis is to investigate the potential of predictive modelling for football injuries. This work was conducted in close collaboration with Tottenham Hotspurs FC (THFC), the PGA European tour and the participation of Wolverhampton Wanderers (WW). Three investigations were conducted: 1. Predicting the recovery time of football injuries using the UEFA injury recordings: The UEFA recordings is a common standard for recording injuries in professional football. For this investigation, three datasets of UEFA injury recordings were available. Different machine learning algorithms were used in order to build a predictive model. The performance of the machine learning models is then improved by using feature selection conducted through correlation-based subset feature selection and random forests. 2. Predicting injuries in professional football using exposure records: The relationship between exposure (in training hours and match hours) in professional football athletes and injury incidence was studied. A common problem in football is understanding how the training schedule of an athlete can affect the chance of him getting injured. The task was to predict the number of days a player can train before he gets injured. 3. Predicting intrinsic injury incidence using in-training GPS measurements: A significant percentage of football injuries can be attributed to overtraining and fatigue. GPS data collected during training sessions might provide indicators of fatigue, or might be used to detect very intense training sessions which can lead to overtraining. This research used GPS data gathered during training sessions of the first team of THFC, in order to predict whether an injury would take place during a week.
We designed a multilayer perceptron neural network to predict the price of a football (soccer) player using data on more than 15,000 players from the football simulation video game FIFA 2017. The network was optimized by experimenting with different activation functions, number of neurons and layers, learning rate and its decay, Nesterov momentum based stochastic gradient descent, L2 regularization, and early stopping. Simultaneous exploration of various aspects of neural network training is performed and their trade-offs are investigated. Our final model achieves a top-5 accuracy of 87.2% among 119 pricing categories, and places any footballer within 6.32% of his actual price on average.