Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.
Current video understanding models excel at recognizing "what" is happening but fall short in high-level cognitive tasks like causal reasoning and future prediction, a limitation rooted in their lack of commonsense world knowledge. To bridge this cognitive gap, we propose a novel framework that synergistically fuses a powerful Vision Foundation Model (VFM) for deep visual perception with a Large Language Model (LLM) serving as a knowledge-driven reasoning core. Our key technical innovation is a sophisticated fusion module, inspired by the Q-Former architecture, which distills complex spatiotemporal and object-centric visual features into a concise, language-aligned representation. This enables the LLM to effectively ground its inferential processes in direct visual evidence. The model is trained via a two-stage strategy, beginning with large-scale alignment pre-training on video-text data, followed by targeted instruction fine-tuning on a curated dataset designed to elicit advanced reasoning and prediction skills. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple challenging benchmarks. Notably, it exhibits remarkable zero-shot generalization to unseen reasoning tasks, and our in-depth ablation studies validate the critical contribution of each architectural component. This work pushes the boundary of machine perception from simple recognition towards genuine cognitive understanding, paving the way for more intelligent and capable AI systems in robotics, human-computer interaction, and beyond.
This paper presents the distributed Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) filter based on the generalised covariance intersection (GCI) fusion rule for distributed multi-object filtering. Since the exact GCI fusion of two PMB densities is intractable, we derive a principled approximation. Specifically, we approximate the power of a PMB density as an unnormalised PMB density, which corresponds to an upper bound of the PMB density. Then, the GCI fusion rule corresponds to the normalised product of two unnormalised PMB densities. We show that the result is a Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM), which can be expressed in closed form. Future prediction and update steps in each filter preserve the PMBM form, which can be projected back to a PMB density before the next fusion step. Experimental results show the benefits of this approach compared to other distributed multi-object filters.
Camera-based 3D object detection in Bird's Eye View (BEV) is one of the most important perception tasks in autonomous driving. Earlier methods rely on dense BEV features, which are costly to construct. More recent works explore sparse query-based detection. However, they still require a large number of queries and can become expensive to run when more video frames are used. In this paper, we propose DySS, a novel method that employs state-space learning and dynamic queries. More specifically, DySS leverages a state-space model (SSM) to sequentially process the sampled features over time steps. In order to encourage the model to better capture the underlying motion and correspondence information, we introduce auxiliary tasks of future prediction and masked reconstruction to better train the SSM. The state of the SSM then provides an informative yet efficient summarization of the scene. Based on the state-space learned features, we dynamically update the queries via merge, remove, and split operations, which help maintain a useful, lean set of detection queries throughout the network. Our proposed DySS achieves both superior detection performance and efficient inference. Specifically, on the nuScenes test split, DySS achieves 65.31 NDS and 57.4 mAP, outperforming the latest state of the art. On the val split, DySS achieves 56.2 NDS and 46.2 mAP, as well as a real-time inference speed of 33 FPS.
Video Question Answering (VideoQA) aims to answer natural language questions based on the given video, with prior work primarily focusing on identifying the duration of relevant segments, referred to as explicit visual evidence. However, explicit visual evidence is not always directly available, particularly when questions target symbolic meanings or deeper intentions, leading to significant performance degradation. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel task and dataset, $\textbf{I}$mplicit $\textbf{V}$ideo $\textbf{Q}$uestion $\textbf{A}$nswering (I-VQA), which focuses on answering questions in scenarios where explicit visual evidence is inaccessible. Given an implicit question and its corresponding video, I-VQA requires answering based on the contextual visual cues present within the video. To tackle I-VQA, we propose a novel reasoning framework, IRM (Implicit Reasoning Model), incorporating dual-stream modeling of contextual actions and intent clues as implicit reasoning chains. IRM comprises the Action-Intent Module (AIM) and the Visual Enhancement Module (VEM). AIM deduces and preserves question-related dual clues by generating clue candidates and performing relation deduction. VEM enhances contextual visual representation by leveraging key contextual clues. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our IRM in I-VQA tasks, outperforming GPT-4o, OpenAI-o3, and fine-tuned VideoChat2 by $0.76\%$, $1.37\%$, and $4.87\%$, respectively. Additionally, IRM performs SOTA on similar implicit advertisement understanding and future prediction in traffic-VQA. Datasets and codes are available for double-blind review in anonymous repo: https://github.com/tychen-SJTU/Implicit-VideoQA.
In the era of AI, neural networks have become increasingly popular for modeling, inference, and prediction, largely due to their potential for universal approximation. With the proliferation of such deep learning models, a question arises: are leaner statistical methods still relevant? To shed insight on this question, we employ the mechanistic nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) inverse problem as a testbed, using physics-informed neural network (PINN) as a representative of the deep learning paradigm and manifold-constrained Gaussian process inference (MAGI) as a representative of statistically principled methods. Through case studies involving the SEIR model from epidemiology and the Lorenz model from chaotic dynamics, we demonstrate that statistical methods are far from obsolete, especially when working with sparse and noisy observations. On tasks such as parameter inference and trajectory reconstruction, statistically principled methods consistently achieve lower bias and variance, while using far fewer parameters and requiring less hyperparameter tuning. Statistical methods can also decisively outperform deep learning models on out-of-sample future prediction, where the absence of relevant data often leads overparameterized models astray. Additionally, we find that statistically principled approaches are more robust to accumulation of numerical imprecision and can represent the underlying system more faithful to the true governing ODEs.
Real-world driving requires people to observe the current environment, anticipate the future, and make appropriate driving decisions. This requirement is aligned well with the capabilities of world models, which understand the environment and predict the future. However, recent world models in autonomous driving are built explicitly, where they could predict the future by controllable driving video generation. We argue that driving world models should have two additional abilities: action control and action prediction. Following this line, previous methods are limited because they predict the video requires given actions of the same length as the video and ignore the dynamical action laws. To address these issues, we propose ProphetDWM, a novel end-to-end driving world model that jointly predicts future videos and actions. Our world model has an action module to learn latent action from the present to the future period by giving the action sequence and observations. And a diffusion-model-based transition module to learn the state distribution. The model is jointly trained by learning latent actions given finite states and predicting action and video. The joint learning connects the action dynamics and states and enables long-term future prediction. We evaluate our method in video generation and action prediction tasks on the Nuscenes dataset. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, our method achieves the best video consistency and best action prediction accuracy, while also enabling high-quality long-term video and action generation.
We address the challenge of representation learning from a continuous stream of video as input, in a self-supervised manner. This differs from the standard approaches to video learning where videos are chopped and shuffled during training in order to create a non-redundant batch that satisfies the independently and identically distributed (IID) sample assumption expected by conventional training paradigms. When videos are only available as a continuous stream of input, the IID assumption is evidently broken, leading to poor performance. We demonstrate the drop in performance when moving from shuffled to sequential learning on three tasks: the one-video representation learning method DoRA, standard VideoMAE on multi-video datasets, and the task of future video prediction. To address this drop, we propose a geometric modification to standard optimizers, to decorrelate batches by utilising orthogonal gradients during training. The proposed modification can be applied to any optimizer -- we demonstrate it with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) and AdamW. Our proposed orthogonal optimizer allows models trained from streaming videos to alleviate the drop in representation learning performance, as evaluated on downstream tasks. On three scenarios (DoRA, VideoMAE, future prediction), we show our orthogonal optimizer outperforms the strong AdamW in all three scenarios.
We study reconstructing and predicting 3D fluid appearance and velocity from a single video. Current methods require multi-view videos for fluid reconstruction. We present FluidNexus, a novel framework that bridges video generation and physics simulation to tackle this task. Our key insight is to synthesize multiple novel-view videos as references for reconstruction. FluidNexus consists of two key components: (1) a novel-view video synthesizer that combines frame-wise view synthesis with video diffusion refinement for generating realistic videos, and (2) a physics-integrated particle representation coupling differentiable simulation and rendering to simultaneously facilitate 3D fluid reconstruction and prediction. To evaluate our approach, we collect two new real-world fluid datasets featuring textured backgrounds and object interactions. Our method enables dynamic novel view synthesis, future prediction, and interaction simulation from a single fluid video. Project website: https://yuegao.me/FluidNexus.
Creating a physical digital twin of a real-world object has immense potential in robotics, content creation, and XR. In this paper, we present PhysTwin, a novel framework that uses sparse videos of dynamic objects under interaction to produce a photo- and physically realistic, real-time interactive virtual replica. Our approach centers on two key components: (1) a physics-informed representation that combines spring-mass models for realistic physical simulation, generative shape models for geometry, and Gaussian splats for rendering; and (2) a novel multi-stage, optimization-based inverse modeling framework that reconstructs complete geometry, infers dense physical properties, and replicates realistic appearance from videos. Our method integrates an inverse physics framework with visual perception cues, enabling high-fidelity reconstruction even from partial, occluded, and limited viewpoints. PhysTwin supports modeling various deformable objects, including ropes, stuffed animals, cloth, and delivery packages. Experiments show that PhysTwin outperforms competing methods in reconstruction, rendering, future prediction, and simulation under novel interactions. We further demonstrate its applications in interactive real-time simulation and model-based robotic motion planning.
World models aim to learn action-controlled future prediction and have proven essential for the development of intelligent agents. However, most existing world models rely heavily on substantial action-labeled data and costly training, making it challenging to adapt to novel environments with heterogeneous actions through limited interactions. This limitation can hinder their applicability across broader domains. To overcome this limitation, we propose AdaWorld, an innovative world model learning approach that enables efficient adaptation. The key idea is to incorporate action information during the pretraining of world models. This is achieved by extracting latent actions from videos in a self-supervised manner, capturing the most critical transitions between frames. We then develop an autoregressive world model that conditions on these latent actions. This learning paradigm enables highly adaptable world models, facilitating efficient transfer and learning of new actions even with limited interactions and finetuning. Our comprehensive experiments across multiple environments demonstrate that AdaWorld achieves superior performance in both simulation quality and visual planning.
We present UniFuture, a simple yet effective driving world model that seamlessly integrates future scene generation and perception within a single framework. Unlike existing models focusing solely on pixel-level future prediction or geometric reasoning, our approach jointly models future appearance (i.e., RGB image) and geometry (i.e., depth), ensuring coherent predictions. Specifically, during the training, we first introduce a Dual-Latent Sharing scheme, which transfers image and depth sequence in a shared latent space, allowing both modalities to benefit from shared feature learning. Additionally, we propose a Multi-scale Latent Interaction mechanism, which facilitates bidirectional refinement between image and depth features at multiple spatial scales, effectively enhancing geometry consistency and perceptual alignment. During testing, our UniFuture can easily predict high-consistency future image-depth pairs by only using the current image as input. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that UniFuture outperforms specialized models on future generation and perception tasks, highlighting the advantages of a unified, structurally-aware world model. The project page is at https://github.com/dk-liang/UniFuture.
Recent breakthroughs in autonomous driving have been propelled by advances in robust world modeling, fundamentally transforming how vehicles interpret dynamic scenes and execute safe decision-making. World models have emerged as a linchpin technology, offering high-fidelity representations of the driving environment that integrate multi-sensor data, semantic cues, and temporal dynamics. This paper systematically reviews recent advances in world models for autonomous driving, proposing a three-tiered taxonomy: (i) Generation of Future Physical World, covering Image-, BEV-, OG-, and PC-based generation methods that enhance scene evolution modeling through diffusion models and 4D occupancy forecasting; (ii) Behavior Planning for Intelligent Agents, combining rule-driven and learning-based paradigms with cost map optimization and reinforcement learning for trajectory generation in complex traffic conditions; (ii) Interaction between Prediction and Planning, achieving multi-agent collaborative decision-making through latent space diffusion and memory-augmented architectures. The study further analyzes training paradigms, including self-supervised learning, multimodal pretraining, and generative data augmentation, while evaluating world models' performance in scene understanding and motion prediction tasks. Future research must address key challenges in self-supervised representation learning, long-tail scenario generation, and multimodal fusion to advance the practical deployment of world models in complex urban environments. Overall, the comprehensive analysis provides a technical roadmap for harnessing the transformative potential of world models in advancing safe and reliable autonomous driving solutions.
Semantic future prediction is important for autonomous systems navigating dynamic environments. This paper introduces FUTURIST, a method for multimodal future semantic prediction that uses a unified and efficient visual sequence transformer architecture. Our approach incorporates a multimodal masked visual modeling objective and a novel masking mechanism designed for multimodal training. This allows the model to effectively integrate visible information from various modalities, improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, we propose a VAE-free hierarchical tokenization process, which reduces computational complexity, streamlines the training pipeline, and enables end-to-end training with high-resolution, multimodal inputs. We validate FUTURIST on the Cityscapes dataset, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in future semantic segmentation for both short- and mid-term forecasting. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/FUTURIST .
Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate early preventive measures and uncover new opportunities. Multiple diverse computational methods for attempting future predictions, including predictive analysis, time series forecasting, and simulations have been proposed. This study evaluates the performance of several large language models (LLMs) in supporting future prediction tasks, an under-explored domain. We assess the models across three scenarios: Affirmative vs. Likelihood questioning, Reasoning, and Counterfactual analysis. For this, we create a dataset1 by finding and categorizing news articles based on entity type and its popularity. We gather news articles before and after the LLMs training cutoff date in order to thoroughly test and compare model performance. Our research highlights LLMs potential and limitations in predictive modeling, providing a foundation for future improvements.
Inspired by the iconic movie Back to the Future, this paper explores an innovative adaptive nowcasting approach that reimagines the relationship between present actions and future outcomes. In the movie, characters travel through time to manipulate past events, aiming to create a better future. Analogously, our framework employs predictive insights about the future to inform and adjust present conditions. This dual-stage model integrates the forecasting power of Transformers (future visionary) with the interpretability and efficiency of XGBoost (decision maker), enabling a seamless loop of future prediction and present adaptation. Through experimentation with meteorological datasets, we demonstrate the framework's advantage in achieving more accurate forecasting while guiding actionable interventions for real-time applications.
In this paper, a novel classification algorithm that is based on Data Importance (DI) reformatting and Genetic Algorithms (GA) named GADIC is proposed to overcome the issues related to the nature of data which may hinder the performance of the Machine Learning (ML) classifiers. GADIC comprises three phases which are data reformatting phase which depends on DI concept, training phase where GA is applied on the reformatted training dataset, and testing phase where the instances of the reformatted testing dataset are being averaged based on similar instances in the training dataset. GADIC is an approach that utilizes the exiting ML classifiers with involvement of data reformatting, using GA to tune the inputs, and averaging the similar instances to the unknown instance. The averaging of the instances becomes the unknown instance to be classified in the stage of testing. GADIC has been tested on five existing ML classifiers which are Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), and Na\"ive Bayes (NB). All were evaluated using seven open-source UCI ML repository and Kaggle datasets which are Cleveland heart disease, Indian liver patient, Pima Indian diabetes, employee future prediction, telecom churn prediction, bank customer churn, and tech students. In terms of accuracy, the results showed that, with the exception of approximately 1% decrease in the accuracy of NB classifier in Cleveland heart disease dataset, GADIC significantly enhanced the performance of most ML classifiers using various datasets. In addition, KNN with GADIC showed the greatest performance gain when compared with other ML classifiers with GADIC followed by SVM while LR had the lowest improvement. The lowest average improvement that GADIC could achieve is 5.96%, whereas the maximum average improvement reached 16.79%.
World Model-based Reinforcement Learning (WMRL) enables sample efficient policy learning by reducing the need for online interactions which can potentially be costly and unsafe, especially for autonomous driving. However, existing world models often suffer from low prediction fidelity and compounding one-step errors, leading to policy degradation over long horizons. Additionally, traditional RL policies, often deterministic or single Gaussian-based, fail to capture the multi-modal nature of decision-making in complex driving scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose Imagine-2-Drive, a novel WMRL framework that integrates a high-fidelity world model with a multi-modal diffusion-based policy actor. It consists of two key components: DiffDreamer, a diffusion-based world model that generates future observations simultaneously, mitigating error accumulation, and DPA (Diffusion Policy Actor), a diffusion-based policy that models diverse and multi-modal trajectory distributions. By training DPA within DiffDreamer, our method enables robust policy learning with minimal online interactions. We evaluate our method in CARLA using standard driving benchmarks and demonstrate that it outperforms prior world model baselines, improving Route Completion and Success Rate by 15% and 20% respectively.
Trajectory modeling, which includes research on trajectory data pattern mining and future prediction, has widespread applications in areas such as life services, urban transportation, and public administration. Numerous methods have been proposed to address specific problems within trajectory modelling. However, due to the heterogeneity of data and the diversity of trajectory tasks, achieving unified trajectory modelling remains an important yet challenging task. In this paper, we propose TrajAgent, a large language model-based agentic framework, to unify various trajectory modelling tasks. In TrajAgent, we first develop UniEnv, an execution environment with a unified data and model interface, to support the execution and training of various models. Building on UniEnv, we introduce TAgent, an agentic workflow designed for automatic trajectory modelling across various trajectory tasks. Specifically, we design AutOpt, a systematic optimization module within TAgent, to further improve the performance of the integrated model. With diverse trajectory tasks input in natural language, TrajAgent automatically generates competitive results via training and executing appropriate models. Extensive experiments on four tasks using four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of TrajAgent in unified trajectory modelling, achieving an average performance improvement of 15.43% over baseline methods.
To navigate safely and efficiently in crowded spaces, robots should not only perceive the current state of the environment but also anticipate future human movements. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning architecture, namely Falcon, to tackle socially-aware navigation by explicitly predicting human trajectories and penalizing actions that block future human paths. To facilitate realistic evaluation, we introduce a novel SocialNav benchmark containing two new datasets, Social-HM3D and Social-MP3D. This benchmark offers large-scale photo-realistic indoor scenes populated with a reasonable amount of human agents based on scene area size, incorporating natural human movements and trajectory patterns. We conduct a detailed experimental analysis with the state-of-the-art learning-based method and two classic rule-based path-planning algorithms on the new benchmark. The results demonstrate the importance of future prediction and our method achieves the best task success rate of 55% while maintaining about 90% personal space compliance. We will release our code and datasets. Videos of demonstrations can be viewed at https://zeying-gong.github.io/projects/falcon/ .