The release of ChatGPT in late 2022 caused a flurry of activity and concern in the academic and educational communities. Some see the tool's ability to generate human-like text that passes at least cursory inspections for factual accuracy ``often enough'' a golden age of information retrieval and computer-assisted learning. Some, on the other hand, worry the tool may lead to unprecedented levels of academic dishonesty and cheating. In this work, we quantify some of the effects of the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) on online education by analyzing a multi-year dataset of student essay responses from a free university-level MOOC on AI ethics. Our dataset includes essays submitted both before and after ChatGPT's release. We find that the launch of ChatGPT coincided with significant changes in both the length and style of student essays, mirroring observations in other contexts such as academic publishing. We also observe -- as expected based on related public discourse -- changes in prevalence of key content words related to AI and LLMs, but not necessarily the general themes or topics discussed in the student essays as identified through (dynamic) topic modeling.
Dynamic topic modeling is useful at discovering the development and change in latent topics over time. However, present methodology relies on algorithms that separate document and word representations. This prevents the creation of a meaningful embedding space where changes in word usage and documents can be directly analyzed in a temporal context. This paper proposes an expansion of the compass-aligned temporal Word2Vec methodology into dynamic topic modeling. Such a method allows for the direct comparison of word and document embeddings across time in dynamic topics. This enables the creation of visualizations that incorporate temporal word embeddings within the context of documents into topic visualizations. In experiments against the current state-of-the-art, our proposed method demonstrates overall competitive performance in topic relevancy and diversity across temporal datasets of varying size. Simultaneously, it provides insightful visualizations focused on temporal word embeddings while maintaining the insights provided by global topic evolution, advancing our understanding of how topics evolve over time.
Dynamic topic models have been proposed as a tool for historical analysis, but traditional approaches have had limited usefulness, being difficult to configure, interpret, and evaluate. In this work, we experiment with a recent approach for dynamic topic modeling using BERT embeddings. We compare topic models built using traditional statistical models (LDA and NMF) and the BERT-based model, modeling topics over the entire surviving corpus of Roman literature. We find that while quantitative metrics prefer statistical models, qualitative evaluation finds better insights from the neural model. Furthermore, the neural topic model is less sensitive to hyperparameter configuration and thus may make dynamic topic modeling more viable for historical researchers.
To advance the circular economy (CE), it is crucial to gain insights into the evolution of public attention, cognitive pathways of the masses concerning circular products, and to identify primary concerns. To achieve this, we collected data from diverse platforms, including Twitter, Reddit, and The Guardian, and utilised three topic models to analyse the data. Given the performance of topic modelling may vary depending on hyperparameter settings, this research proposed a novel framework that integrates twin (single and multi-objective) hyperparameter optimisation for the CE. We conducted systematic experiments to ensure that topic models are set with appropriate hyperparameters under different constraints, providing valuable insights into the correlations between CE and public attention. In summary, our optimised model reveals that public remains concerned about the economic impacts of sustainability and circular practices, particularly regarding recyclable materials and environmentally sustainable technologies. The analysis shows that the CE has attracted significant attention on The Guardian, especially in topics related to sustainable development and environmental protection technologies, while discussions are comparatively less active on Twitter. These insights highlight the need for policymakers to implement targeted education programs, create incentives for businesses to adopt CE principles, and enforce more stringent waste management policies alongside improved recycling processes.
In this paper, we propose the Continuous Time Fractional Topic Model (cFTM), a new method for dynamic topic modeling. This approach incorporates fractional Brownian motion~(fBm) to effectively identify positive or negative correlations in topic and word distribution over time, revealing long-term dependency or roughness. Our theoretical analysis shows that the cFTM can capture these long-term dependency or roughness in both topic and word distributions, mirroring the main characteristics of fBm. Moreover, we prove that the parameter estimation process for the cFTM is on par with that of LDA, traditional topic models. To demonstrate the cFTM's property, we conduct empirical study using economic news articles. The results from these tests support the model's ability to identify and track long-term dependency or roughness in topics over time.
This paper presents ATEM, a novel framework for studying topic evolution in scientific archives. ATEM is based on dynamic topic modeling and dynamic graph embedding techniques that explore the dynamics of content and citations of documents within a scientific corpus. ATEM explores a new notion of contextual emergence for the discovery of emerging interdisciplinary research topics based on the dynamics of citation links in topic clusters. Our experiments show that ATEM can efficiently detect emerging cross-disciplinary topics within the DBLP archive of over five million computer science articles.
This paper presents an algorithmic family of dynamic topic models called Aligned Neural Topic Models (ANTM), which combine novel data mining algorithms to provide a modular framework for discovering evolving topics. ANTM maintains the temporal continuity of evolving topics by extracting time-aware features from documents using advanced pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) and employing an overlapping sliding window algorithm for sequential document clustering. This overlapping sliding window algorithm identifies a different number of topics within each time frame and aligns semantically similar document clusters across time periods. This process captures emerging and fading trends across different periods and allows for a more interpretable representation of evolving topics. Experiments on four distinct datasets show that ANTM outperforms probabilistic dynamic topic models in terms of topic coherence and diversity metrics. Moreover, it improves the scalability and flexibility of dynamic topic models by being accessible and adaptable to different types of algorithms. Additionally, a Python package is developed for researchers and scientists who wish to study the trends and evolving patterns of topics in large-scale textual data.
Topic evolution modeling has received significant attentions in recent decades. Although various topic evolution models have been proposed, most studies focus on the single document corpus. However in practice, we can easily access data from multiple sources and also observe relationships between them. Then it is of great interest to recognize the relationship between multiple text corpora and further utilize this relationship to improve topic modeling. In this work, we focus on a special type of relationship between two text corpora, which we define as the "lead-lag relationship". This relationship characterizes the phenomenon that one text corpus would influence the topics to be discussed in the other text corpus in the future. To discover the lead-lag relationship, we propose a jointly dynamic topic model and also develop an embedding extension to address the modeling problem of large-scale text corpus. With the recognized lead-lag relationship, the similarities of the two text corpora can be figured out and the quality of topic learning in both corpora can be improved. We numerically investigate the performance of the jointly dynamic topic modeling approach using synthetic data. Finally, we apply the proposed model on two text corpora consisting of statistical papers and the graduation theses. Results show the proposed model can well recognize the lead-lag relationship between the two corpora, and the specific and shared topic patterns in the two corpora are also discovered.
The abundant sequential documents such as online archival, social media and news feeds are streamingly updated, where each chunk of documents is incorporated with smoothly evolving yet dependent topics. Such digital texts have attracted extensive research on dynamic topic modeling to infer hidden evolving topics and their temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing approaches focus on single-topic-thread evolution and ignore the fact that a current topic may be coupled with multiple relevant prior topics. In addition, these approaches also incur the intractable inference problem when inferring latent parameters, resulting in a high computational cost and performance degradation. In this work, we assume that a current topic evolves from all prior topics with corresponding coupling weights, forming the multi-topic-thread evolution. Our method models the dependencies between evolving topics and thoroughly encodes their complex multi-couplings across time steps. To conquer the intractable inference challenge, a new solution with a set of novel data augmentation techniques is proposed, which successfully discomposes the multi-couplings between evolving topics. A fully conjugate model is thus obtained to guarantee the effectiveness and efficiency of the inference technique. A novel Gibbs sampler with a backward-forward filter algorithm efficiently learns latent timeevolving parameters in a closed-form. In addition, the latent Indian Buffet Process (IBP) compound distribution is exploited to automatically infer the overall topic number and customize the sparse topic proportions for each sequential document without bias. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets against the competitive baselines, demonstrating its superiority over the baselines in terms of the low per-word perplexity, high coherent topics, and better document time prediction.
Data mining project managers can benefit from using standard data mining process models. The benefits of using standard process models for data mining, such as the de facto and the most popular, Cross-Industry-Standard-Process model for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) are reduced cost and time. Also, standard models facilitate knowledge transfer, reuse of best practices, and minimize knowledge requirements. On the other hand, to unlock the potential of ever-growing textual data such as publications, patents, social media data, and documents of various forms, digital innovation is increasingly needed. Furthermore, the introduction of cutting-edge machine learning tools and techniques enable the elicitation of ideas. The processing of unstructured textual data to generate new and useful ideas is referred to as idea mining. Existing literature about idea mining merely overlooks the utilization of standard data mining process models. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to propose a reusable model to generate ideas, CRISP-DM, for Idea Mining (CRISP-IM). The design and development of the CRISP-IM are done following the design science approach. The CRISP-IM facilitates idea generation, through the use of Dynamic Topic Modeling (DTM), unsupervised machine learning, and subsequent statistical analysis on a dataset of scholarly articles. The adapted CRISP-IM can be used to guide the process of identifying trends using scholarly literature datasets or temporally organized patent or any other textual dataset of any domain to elicit ideas. The ex-post evaluation of the CRISP-IM is left for future study.
There is currently an unprecedented demand for large-scale temporal data analysis due to the explosive growth of data. Dynamic topic modeling has been widely used in social and data sciences with the goal of learning latent topics that emerge, evolve, and fade over time. Previous work on dynamic topic modeling primarily employ the method of nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), where slices of the data tensor are each factorized into the product of lower-dimensional nonnegative matrices. With this approach, however, information contained in the temporal dimension of the data is often neglected or underutilized. To overcome this issue, we propose instead adopting the method of nonnegative CANDECOMP/PARAPAC (CP) tensor decomposition (NNCPD), where the data tensor is directly decomposed into a minimal sum of outer products of nonnegative vectors, thereby preserving the temporal information. The viability of NNCPD is demonstrated through application to both synthetic and real data, where significantly improved results are obtained compared to those of typical NMF-based methods. The advantages of NNCPD over such approaches are studied and discussed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that NNCPD has been utilized for the purpose of dynamic topic modeling, and our findings will be transformative for both applications and further developments.
Models for sequential data such as the recurrent neural network (RNN) often implicitly model a sequence as having a fixed time interval between observations and do not account for group-level effects when multiple sequences are observed. We propose a model for grouped sequential data based on the RNN that accounts for varying time intervals between observations in a sequence by learning a group-level base parameter to which each sequence can revert. Our approach is motivated by the mixed membership framework, and we show how it can be used for dynamic topic modeling in which the distribution on topics (not the topics themselves) are evolving in time. We demonstrate our approach on a dataset of 3.4 million online grocery shopping orders made by 206K customers.
The problem of spatiotemporal event visualization based on reports entails subtasks ranging from named entity recognition to relationship extraction and mapping of events. We present an approach to event extraction that is driven by data mining and visualization goals, particularly thematic mapping and trend analysis. This paper focuses on bridging the information extraction and visualization tasks and investigates topic modeling approaches. We develop a static, finite topic model and examine the potential benefits and feasibility of extending this to dynamic topic modeling with a large number of topics and continuous time. We describe an experimental test bed for event mapping that uses this end-to-end information retrieval system, and report preliminary results on a geoinformatics problem: tracking of methamphetamine lab seizure events across time and space.
This study analyzes political interactions in the European Parliament (EP) by considering how the political agenda of the plenary sessions has evolved over time and the manner in which Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reacted to external and internal stimuli when making Parliamentary speeches. It does so by considering the context in which speeches are made, and the content of those speeches. To detect latent themes in legislative speeches over time, speech content is analyzed using a new dynamic topic modeling method, based on two layers of matrix factorization. This method is applied to a new corpus of all English language legislative speeches in the EP plenary from the period 1999-2014. Our findings suggest that the political agenda of the EP has evolved significantly over time, is impacted upon by the committee structure of the Parliament, and reacts to exogenous events such as EU Treaty referenda and the emergence of the Euro-crisis have a significant impact on what is being discussed in Parliament.
This study is a first, exploratory attempt to use quantitative semantics techniques and topological analysis to analyze systemic patterns arising in a complex political system. In particular, we use a rich data set covering all speeches and debates in the UK House of Commons between 1975 and 2014. By the use of dynamic topic modeling (DTM) and topological data analysis (TDA) we show that both members and parties feature specific roles within the system, consistent over time, and extract global patterns indicating levels of political cohesion. Our results provide a wide array of novel hypotheses about the complex dynamics of political systems, with valuable policy applications.
In dynamic topic modeling, the proportional contribution of a topic to a document depends on the temporal dynamics of that topic's overall prevalence in the corpus. We extend the Dynamic Topic Model of Blei and Lafferty (2006) by explicitly modeling document level topic proportions with covariates and dynamic structure that includes polynomial trends and periodicity. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that utilizes Polya-Gamma data augmentation is developed for posterior inference. Conditional independencies in the model and sampling are made explicit, and our MCMC algorithm is parallelized where possible to allow for inference in large corpora. To address computational bottlenecks associated with Polya-Gamma sampling, we appeal to the Central Limit Theorem to develop a Gaussian approximation to the Polya-Gamma random variable. This approximation is fast and reliable for parameter values relevant in the text mining domain. Our model and inference algorithm are validated with multiple simulation examples, and we consider the application of modeling trends in PubMed abstracts. We demonstrate that sharing information across documents is critical for accurately estimating document-specific topic proportions. We also show that explicitly modeling polynomial and periodic behavior improves our ability to predict topic prevalence at future time points.
This study analyzes the political agenda of the European Parliament (EP) plenary, how it has evolved over time, and the manner in which Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reacted to external and internal stimuli when making plenary speeches. To unveil the plenary agenda and detect latent themes in legislative speeches over time, MEP speech content is analyzed using a new dynamic topic modeling method based on two layers of Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF). This method is applied to a new corpus of all English language legislative speeches in the EP plenary from the period 1999-2014. Our findings suggest that two-layer NMF is a valuable alternative to existing dynamic topic modeling approaches found in the literature, and can unveil niche topics and associated vocabularies not captured by existing methods. Substantively, our findings suggest that the political agenda of the EP evolves significantly over time and reacts to exogenous events such as EU Treaty referenda and the emergence of the Euro-crisis. MEP contributions to the plenary agenda are also found to be impacted upon by voting behaviour and the committee structure of the Parliament.
Semi-supervised and unsupervised systems provide operators with invaluable support and can tremendously reduce the operators load. In the light of the necessity to process large volumes of video data and provide autonomous decisions, this work proposes new learning algorithms for activity analysis in video. The activities and behaviours are described by a dynamic topic model. Two novel learning algorithms based on the expectation maximisation approach and variational Bayes inference are proposed. Theoretical derivations of the posterior of model parameters are given. The designed learning algorithms are compared with the Gibbs sampling inference scheme introduced earlier in the literature. A detailed comparison of the learning algorithms is presented on real video data. We also propose an anomaly localisation procedure, elegantly embedded in the topic modeling framework. The proposed framework can be applied to a number of areas, including transportation systems, security and surveillance.
Topic modeling, a method for extracting the underlying themes from a collection of documents, is an increasingly important component of the design of intelligent systems enabling the sense-making of highly dynamic and diverse streams of text data. Traditional methods such as Dynamic Topic Modeling (DTM) do not lend themselves well to direct parallelization because of dependencies from one time step to another. In this paper, we introduce and empirically analyze Clustered Latent Dirichlet Allocation (CLDA), a method for extracting dynamic latent topics from a collection of documents. Our approach is based on data decomposition in which the data is partitioned into segments, followed by topic modeling on the individual segments. The resulting local models are then combined into a global solution using clustering. The decomposition and resulting parallelization leads to very fast runtime even on very large datasets. Our approach furthermore provides insight into how the composition of topics changes over time and can also be applied using other data partitioning strategies over any discrete features of the data, such as geographic features or classes of users. In this paper CLDA is applied successfully to seventeen years of NIPS conference papers (2,484 documents and 3,280,697 words), seventeen years of computer science journal abstracts (533,560 documents and 32,551,540 words), and to forty years of the PubMed corpus (4,025,978 documents and 273,853,980 words).
Dynamic topic modeling facilitates the identification of topical trends over time in temporal collections of unstructured documents. We introduce a novel unsupervised neural dynamic topic model named as Recurrent Neural Network-Replicated Softmax Model (RNNRSM), where the discovered topics at each time influence the topic discovery in the subsequent time steps. We account for the temporal ordering of documents by explicitly modeling a joint distribution of latent topical dependencies over time, using distributional estimators with temporal recurrent connections. Applying RNN-RSM to 19 years of articles on NLP research, we demonstrate that compared to state-of-the art topic models, RNNRSM shows better generalization, topic interpretation, evolution and trends. We also introduce a metric (named as SPAN) to quantify the capability of dynamic topic model to capture word evolution in topics over time.