We reinterpret and propose a framework for pricing path-dependent financial derivatives by estimating the full distribution of payoffs using Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL). Unlike traditional methods that focus on expected option value, our approach models the entire conditional distribution of payoffs, allowing for risk-aware pricing, tail-risk estimation, and enhanced uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method on Asian options, using quantile-based value function approximators.
We consider the $[0,1]$-valued regression problem in the i.i.d. setting. In a related problem called cost-sensitive classification, \citet{foster21efficient} have shown that the log loss minimizer achieves an improved generalization bound compared to that of the squared loss minimizer in the sense that the bound scales with the cost of the best classifier, which can be arbitrarily small depending on the problem at hand. Such a result is often called a first-order bound. For $[0,1]$-valued regression, we first show that the log loss minimizer leads to a similar first-order bound. We then ask if there exists a loss function that achieves a variance-dependent bound (also known as a second order bound), which is a strict improvement upon first-order bounds. We answer this question in the affirmative by proposing a novel loss function called the betting loss. Our result is ``variance-adaptive'' in the sense that the bound is attained \textit{without any knowledge about the variance}, which is in contrast to modeling label (or reward) variance or the label distribution itself explicitly as part of the function class such as distributional reinforcement learning.
Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning enables large language models (LLMs) to break down complex problems into interpretable intermediate steps, significantly enhancing model transparency and performance in reasoning tasks. However, conventional CoT methods rely on heuristic sampling without structured modeling of reasoning transitions, constraining their ability to systematically explore and discover diverse and effective reasoning trajectories. In this work, we introduce CTRLS, a framework that formulates CoT reasoning as a Markov decision process (MDP) with latent state transitions, enabling principled and state-aware exploration via distributional reinforcement learning. By modelling reasoning actions as explicit probability distributions in latent space, our approach explicitly models epistemic uncertainty, facilitating robust exploration of the reasoning space. As part of our framework, we introduce an on-policy reinforcement learning strategy incorporating epsilon-greedy exploration and entropy-based regularization to iteratively refine latent state transitions without requiring additional fine-tuning of the underlying LLM. Theoretical analyses provide evidence lower bounds (ELBO), theoretically grounding our transition-aware modeling of latent reasoning dynamics. Further experiments demonstrate improvements in reasoning accuracy, diversity, and exploration efficiency across benchmark reasoning tasks.
Bias problems in the estimation of $Q$-values are a well-known obstacle that slows down convergence of $Q$-learning and actor-critic methods. One of the reasons of the success of modern RL algorithms is partially a direct or indirect overestimation reduction mechanism. We propose an easy to implement method built on top of distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms to deal with the overestimation in a locally adaptive way. Our framework is simple to implement, existing distributional algorithms can be improved with a few lines of code. We provide theoretical evidence and use double $Q$-learning to show how to include locally adaptive overestimation control in existing algorithms. Experiments are provided for tabular, Atari, and MuJoCo environments.
In many real-world planning tasks, agents must tackle uncertainty about the environment's state and variability in the outcomes of any chosen policy. We address both forms of uncertainty as a first step toward safer algorithms in partially observable settings. Specifically, we extend Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL)-which models the entire return distribution for fully observable domains-to Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), allowing an agent to learn the distribution of returns for each conditional plan. Concretely, we introduce new distributional Bellman operators for partial observability and prove their convergence under the supremum p-Wasserstein metric. We also propose a finite representation of these return distributions via psi-vectors, generalizing the classical alpha-vectors in POMDP solvers. Building on this, we develop Distributional Point-Based Value Iteration (DPBVI), which integrates psi-vectors into a standard point-based backup procedure-bridging DistRL and POMDP planning. By tracking return distributions, DPBVI naturally enables risk-sensitive control in domains where rare, high-impact events must be carefully managed. We provide source code to foster further research in robust decision-making under partial observability.
We introduce a new architecture for Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL) that models return distributions using normalizing flows. This approach enables flexible, unbounded support for return distributions, in contrast to categorical approaches like C51 that rely on fixed or bounded representations. It also offers richer modeling capacity to capture multi-modality, skewness, and tail behavior than quantile based approaches. Our method is significantly more parameter-efficient than categorical approaches. Standard metrics used to train existing models like KL divergence or Wasserstein distance either are scale insensitive or have biased sample gradients, especially when return supports do not overlap. To address this, we propose a novel surrogate for the Cram\`er distance, that is geometry-aware and computable directly from the return distribution's PDF, avoiding the costly CDF computation. We test our model on the ATARI-5 sub-benchmark and show that our approach outperforms PDF based models while remaining competitive with quantile based methods.
In this paper, we introduce a non-crossing quantile (NQ) network for conditional distribution learning. By leveraging non-negative activation functions, the NQ network ensures that the learned distributions remain monotonic, effectively addressing the issue of quantile crossing. Furthermore, the NQ network-based deep distributional learning framework is highly adaptable, applicable to a wide range of applications, from classical non-parametric quantile regression to more advanced tasks such as causal effect estimation and distributional reinforcement learning (RL). We also develop a comprehensive theoretical foundation for the deep NQ estimator and its application to distributional RL, providing an in-depth analysis that demonstrates its effectiveness across these domains. Our experimental results further highlight the robustness and versatility of the NQ network.
The rapid growth of heterogeneous and massive wireless connectivity in 6G networks demands intelligent solutions to ensure scalability, reliability, privacy, ultra-low latency, and effective control. Although artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have demonstrated their potential in this domain, traditional online reinforcement learning (RL) and deep RL methods face limitations in real-time wireless networks. For instance, these methods rely on online interaction with the environment, which might be unfeasible, costly, or unsafe. In addition, they cannot handle the inherent uncertainties in real-time wireless applications. We focus on offline and distributional RL, two advanced RL techniques that can overcome these challenges by training on static datasets and accounting for network uncertainties. We introduce a novel framework that combines offline and distributional RL for wireless communication applications. Through case studies on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) trajectory optimization and radio resource management (RRM), we demonstrate that our proposed Conservative Quantile Regression (CQR) algorithm outperforms conventional RL approaches regarding convergence speed and risk management. Finally, we discuss open challenges and potential future directions for applying these techniques in 6G networks, paving the way for safer and more efficient real-time wireless systems.
We introduce a novel Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) approach that overcomes limitations of fixed reward assignments and constrained flexibility in implicit reward regularization. By extending the Maximum Entropy IRL framework with a squared temporal-difference (TD) regularizer and adaptive targets, dynamically adjusted during training, our method indirectly optimizes a reward function while incorporating reinforcement learning principles. Furthermore, we integrate distributional RL to capture richer return information. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging MuJoCo tasks, demonstrating expert-level results on the Humanoid task with only 3 demonstrations. Extensive experiments and ablation studies validate the effectiveness of our method, providing insights into adaptive targets and reward dynamics in imitation learning.
In the field of financial derivatives trading, managing volatility risk is crucial for protecting investment portfolios from market changes. Traditional Vega hedging strategies, which often rely on basic and rule-based models, are hard to adapt well to rapidly changing market conditions. We introduce a new framework for dynamic Vega hedging, the Adaptive Nesterov Accelerated Distributional Deep Hedging (ANADDH), which combines distributional reinforcement learning with a tailored design based on adaptive Nesterov acceleration. This approach improves the learning process in complex financial environments by modeling the hedging efficiency distribution, providing a more accurate and responsive hedging strategy. The design of adaptive Nesterov acceleration refines gradient momentum adjustments, significantly enhancing the stability and speed of convergence of the model. Through empirical analysis and comparisons, our method demonstrates substantial performance gains over existing hedging techniques. Our results confirm that this innovative combination of distributional reinforcement learning with the proposed optimization techniques improves financial risk management and highlights the practical benefits of implementing advanced neural network architectures in the finance sector.
In this paper, we study the finite-sample statistical rates of distributional temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation. The aim of distributional TD learning is to estimate the return distribution of a discounted Markov decision process for a given policy {\pi}. Previous works on statistical analysis of distributional TD learning mainly focus on the tabular case. In contrast, we first consider the linear function approximation setting and derive sharp finite-sample rates. Our theoretical results demonstrate that the sample complexity of linear distributional TD learning matches that of classic linear TD learning. This implies that, with linear function approximation, learning the full distribution of the return from streaming data is no more difficult than learning its expectation (value function). To derive tight sample complexity bounds, we conduct a fine-grained analysis of the linear-categorical Bellman equation and employ the exponential stability arguments for products of random matrices. Our results provide new insights into the statistical efficiency of distributional reinforcement learning algorithms.
Probabilistic model checking traditionally verifies properties on the expected value of a measure of interest. This restriction may fail to capture the quality of service of a significant proportion of a system's runs, especially when the probability distribution of the measure of interest is poorly represented by its expected value due to heavy-tail behaviors or multiple modalities. Recent works inspired by distributional reinforcement learning use discrete histograms to approximate integer reward distribution, but they struggle with continuous reward space and present challenges in balancing accuracy and scalability. We propose a novel method for handling both continuous and discrete reward distributions in Discrete Time Markov Chains using moment matching with Erlang mixtures. By analytically deriving higher-order moments through Moment Generating Functions, our method approximates the reward distribution with theoretically bounded error while preserving the statistical properties of the true distribution. This detailed distributional insight enables the formulation and robust model checking of quality properties based on the entire reward distribution function, rather than restricting to its expected value. We include a theoretical foundation ensuring bounded approximation errors, along with an experimental evaluation demonstrating our method's accuracy and scalability in practical model-checking problems.
Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has gained significant traction for solving complex real-world tasks, but the inherent stochasticity and uncertainty in these environments pose substantial challenges to efficient and robust policy learning. While Distributional Reinforcement Learning has been successfully applied in single-agent settings to address risk and uncertainty, its application in MARL is substantially limited. In this work, we propose a novel approach that integrates distributional learning with a safety-focused loss function to improve convergence in cooperative MARL tasks. Specifically, we introduce a Barrier Function based loss that leverages safety metrics, identified from inherent faults in the system, into the policy learning process. This additional loss term helps mitigate risks and encourages safer exploration during the early stages of training. We evaluate our method in the StarCraft II micromanagement benchmark, where our approach demonstrates improved convergence and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of both safety and task completion. Our results suggest that incorporating safety considerations can significantly enhance learning performance in complex, multi-agent environments.
Financial markets have experienced significant instabilities in recent years, creating unique challenges for trading and increasing interest in risk-averse strategies. Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms, which model the full distribution of returns rather than just expected values, offer a promising approach to managing market uncertainty. This paper investigates this potential by studying the effectiveness of three distributional RL algorithms for natural gas futures trading and exploring their capacity to develop risk-averse policies. Specifically, we analyze the performance and behavior of Categorical Deep Q-Network (C51), Quantile Regression Deep Q-Network (QR-DQN), and Implicit Quantile Network (IQN). To the best of our knowledge, these algorithms have never been applied in a trading context. These policies are compared against five Machine Learning (ML) baselines, using a detailed dataset provided by Predictive Layer SA, a company supplying ML-based strategies for energy trading. The main contributions of this study are as follows. (1) We demonstrate that distributional RL algorithms significantly outperform classical RL methods, with C51 achieving performance improvement of more than 32\%. (2) We show that training C51 and IQN to maximize CVaR produces risk-sensitive policies with adjustable risk aversion. Specifically, our ablation studies reveal that lower CVaR confidence levels increase risk aversion, while higher levels decrease it, offering flexible risk management options. In contrast, QR-DQN shows less predictable behavior. These findings emphasize the potential of distributional RL for developing adaptable, risk-averse trading strategies in volatile markets.
In domains such as finance, healthcare, and robotics, managing worst-case scenarios is critical, as failure to do so can lead to catastrophic outcomes. Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DRL) provides a natural framework to incorporate risk sensitivity into decision-making processes. However, existing approaches face two key limitations: (1) the use of fixed risk measures at each decision step often results in overly conservative policies, and (2) the interpretation and theoretical properties of the learned policies remain unclear. While optimizing a static risk measure addresses these issues, its use in the DRL framework has been limited to the simple static CVaR risk measure. In this paper, we present a novel DRL algorithm with convergence guarantees that optimizes for a broader class of static Spectral Risk Measures (SRM). Additionally, we provide a clear interpretation of the learned policy by leveraging the distribution of returns in DRL and the decomposition of static coherent risk measures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model learns policies aligned with the SRM objective, and outperforms existing risk-neutral and risk-sensitive DRL models in various settings.
Hedging a portfolio containing autocallable notes presents unique challenges due to the complex risk profile of these financial instruments. In addition to hedging, pricing these notes, particularly when multiple underlying assets are involved, adds another layer of complexity. Pricing autocallable notes involves intricate considerations of various risk factors, including underlying assets, interest rates, and volatility. Traditional pricing methods, such as sample-based Monte Carlo simulations, are often time-consuming and impractical for long maturities, particularly when there are multiple underlying assets. In this paper, we explore autocallable structured notes with three underlying assets and proposes a machine learning-based pricing method that significantly improves efficiency, computing prices 250 times faster than traditional Monte Carlo simulation based method. Additionally, we introduce a Distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm to hedge a portfolio containing an autocallable structured note. Our distributional RL based hedging strategy provides better PnL compared to traditional Delta-neutral and Delta-Gamma neutral hedging strategies. The VaR 5% (PnL value) of our RL agent based hedging is 33.95, significantly outperforming both the Delta neutral strategy, which has a VaR 5% of -0.04, and the Delta-Gamma neutral strategy, which has a VaR 5% of 13.05. It also provides the hedging action with better left tail PnL, such as 95% and 99% value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), highlighting its potential for front-office hedging and risk management.
When decisions are made at high frequency, traditional reinforcement learning (RL) methods struggle to accurately estimate action values. In turn, their performance is inconsistent and often poor. Whether the performance of distributional RL (DRL) agents suffers similarly, however, is unknown. In this work, we establish that DRL agents are sensitive to the decision frequency. We prove that action-conditioned return distributions collapse to their underlying policy's return distribution as the decision frequency increases. We quantify the rate of collapse of these return distributions and exhibit that their statistics collapse at different rates. Moreover, we define distributional perspectives on action gaps and advantages. In particular, we introduce the superiority as a probabilistic generalization of the advantage -- the core object of approaches to mitigating performance issues in high-frequency value-based RL. In addition, we build a superiority-based DRL algorithm. Through simulations in an option-trading domain, we validate that proper modeling of the superiority distribution produces improved controllers at high decision frequencies.
Deep Generative Models (DGMs), including Energy-Based Models (EBMs) and Score-based Generative Models (SGMs), have advanced high-fidelity data generation and complex continuous distribution approximation. However, their application in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), particularly in distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL), remains underexplored, with conventional histogram-based methods dominating the field. This paper rigorously highlights that this application gap is caused by the nonlinearity of modern DGMs, which conflicts with the linearity required by the Bellman equation in MDPs. For instance, EBMs involve nonlinear operations such as exponentiating energy functions and normalizing constants. To address this, we introduce Bellman Diffusion, a novel DGM framework that maintains linearity in MDPs through gradient and scalar field modeling. With divergence-based training techniques to optimize neural network proxies and a new type of stochastic differential equation (SDE) for sampling, Bellman Diffusion is guaranteed to converge to the target distribution. Our empirical results show that Bellman Diffusion achieves accurate field estimations and is a capable image generator, converging 1.5x faster than the traditional histogram-based baseline in distributional RL tasks. This work enables the effective integration of DGMs into MDP applications, unlocking new avenues for advanced decision-making frameworks.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has proved to have a promising role in future intelligent wireless networks. Online RL has been adopted for radio resource management (RRM), taking over traditional schemes. However, due to its reliance on online interaction with the environment, its role becomes limited in practical, real-world problems where online interaction is not feasible. In addition, traditional RL stands short in front of the uncertainties and risks in real-world stochastic environments. In this manner, we propose an offline and distributional RL scheme for the RRM problem, enabling offline training using a static dataset without any interaction with the environment and considering the sources of uncertainties using the distributions of the return. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme outperforms conventional resource management models. In addition, it is the only scheme that surpasses online RL with a 10 % gain over online RL.
In reinforcement learning (RL), the consideration of multivariate reward signals has led to fundamental advancements in multi-objective decision-making, transfer learning, and representation learning. This work introduces the first oracle-free and computationally-tractable algorithms for provably convergent multivariate distributional dynamic programming and temporal difference learning. Our convergence rates match the familiar rates in the scalar reward setting, and additionally provide new insights into the fidelity of approximate return distribution representations as a function of the reward dimension. Surprisingly, when the reward dimension is larger than $1$, we show that standard analysis of categorical TD learning fails, which we resolve with a novel projection onto the space of mass-$1$ signed measures. Finally, with the aid of our technical results and simulations, we identify tradeoffs between distribution representations that influence the performance of multivariate distributional RL in practice.