This paper tackles the urgent need for efficient energy management in healthcare facilities, where fluctuating demands challenge operational efficiency and sustainability. Traditional methods often prove inadequate, causing inefficiencies and higher costs. To address this, the study presents an AI-based framework combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), genetic algorithm (GA), and SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), specifically designed for healthcare energy management. Although LSTM is widely used for time-series forecasting, its application in healthcare energy prediction remains underexplored. The results reveal that LSTM significantly outperforms ARIMA and Prophet models in forecasting complex, non-linear demand patterns. LSTM achieves a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 21.69 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 29.96, far better than Prophet (MAE: 59.78, RMSE: 81.22) and ARIMA (MAE: 87.73, RMSE: 125.22), demonstrating superior performance. The genetic algorithm is applied to optimize model parameters and improve load balancing strategies, enabling adaptive responses to real-time energy fluctuations. SHAP analysis further enhances model transparency by explaining the influence of different features on predictions, fostering trust in decision-making processes. This integrated LSTM-GA-SHAP approach offers a robust solution for improving forecasting accuracy, boosting energy efficiency, and advancing sustainability in healthcare facilities. Future research may explore real-time deployment and hybridization with reinforcement learning for continuous optimization. Overall, the study establishes a solid foundation for using AI in healthcare energy management, highlighting its scalability, efficiency, and resilience potential.
Ensuring grid stability in the transition to renewable energy sources requires accurate power demand forecasting. This study addresses the need for precise forecasting by differentiating among industrial, commercial, and residential consumers through customer clusterisation, tailoring the forecasting models to capture the unique consumption patterns of each group. A feature selection process is done for each consumer type including temporal, socio-economic, and weather-related data obtained from the Copernicus Earth Observation (EO) program. A variety of AI and machine learning algorithms for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) and Very Short-Term Load Forecasting (VSTLF) are explored and compared, determining the most effective approaches. With all that, the main contribution of this work are the new forecasting approaches proposed, which have demonstrated superior performance compared to simpler models, both for STLF and VSTLF, highlighting the importance of customized forecasting strategies for different consumer groups and demonstrating the impact of incorporating detailed weather data on forecasting accuracy. These advancements contribute to more reliable power demand predictions, thereby supporting grid stability.
Passenger demand forecasting helps optimize vehicle scheduling, thereby improving urban efficiency. Recently, attention-based methods have been used to adequately capture the dynamic nature of spatio-temporal data. However, existing methods that rely on heuristic masking strategies cannot fully adapt to the complex spatio-temporal correlations, hindering the model from focusing on the right context. These works also overlook the high-level correlations that exist in the real world. Effectively integrating these high-level correlations with the original correlations is crucial. To fill this gap, we propose the Aggregation Differential Transformer (ADFormer), which offers new insights to demand forecasting promotion. Specifically, we utilize Differential Attention to capture the original spatial correlations and achieve attention denoising. Meanwhile, we design distinct aggregation strategies based on the nature of space and time. Then, the original correlations are unified with the high-level correlations, enabling the model to capture holistic spatio-temporal relations. Experiments conducted on taxi and bike datasets confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of our model, demonstrating its practical value. The code is available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/ADFormer.
Accurate demand estimation is critical for the retail business in guiding the inventory and pricing policies of perishable products. However, it faces fundamental challenges from censored sales data during stockouts, where unobserved demand creates systemic policy biases. Existing datasets lack the temporal resolution and annotations needed to address this censoring effect. To fill this gap, we present FreshRetailNet-50K, the first large-scale benchmark for censored demand estimation. It comprises 50,000 store-product time series of detailed hourly sales data from 898 stores in 18 major cities, encompassing 863 perishable SKUs meticulously annotated for stockout events. The hourly stock status records unique to this dataset, combined with rich contextual covariates, including promotional discounts, precipitation, and temporal features, enable innovative research beyond existing solutions. We demonstrate one such use case of two-stage demand modeling: first, we reconstruct the latent demand during stockouts using precise hourly annotations. We then leverage the recovered demand to train robust demand forecasting models in the second stage. Experimental results show that this approach achieves a 2.73\% improvement in prediction accuracy while reducing the systematic demand underestimation from 7.37\% to near-zero bias. With unprecedented temporal granularity and comprehensive real-world information, FreshRetailNet-50K opens new research directions in demand imputation, perishable inventory optimization, and causal retail analytics. The unique annotation quality and scale of the dataset address long-standing limitations in retail AI, providing immediate solutions and a platform for future methodological innovation. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/Dingdong-Inc/FreshRetailNet-50K) and code (https://github.com/Dingdong-Inc/frn-50k-baseline}) are openly released.
The rapid expansion of AI inference services in the cloud necessitates a robust scalability solution to manage dynamic workloads and maintain high performance. This study proposes a comprehensive scalability optimization framework for cloud AI inference services, focusing on real-time load balancing and autoscaling strategies. The proposed model is a hybrid approach that combines reinforcement learning for adaptive load distribution and deep neural networks for accurate demand forecasting. This multi-layered approach enables the system to anticipate workload fluctuations and proactively adjust resources, ensuring maximum resource utilisation and minimising latency. Furthermore, the incorporation of a decentralised decision-making process within the model serves to enhance fault tolerance and reduce response time in scaling operations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances load balancing efficiency by 35\ and reduces response delay by 28\, thereby exhibiting a substantial optimization effect in comparison with conventional scalability solutions.
The supply chain demand forecasting field has evolved to meet customer demand, preventing lost sales opportunities, and reducing maintenance costs. However, the large number of supply chain components (producers, vendors, ware-houses, etc.) made it impossible to assess the quality of one forecasting method on all these components. In this paper, a comprehensive literature review has been done to identify the main challenges of the supply chain forecasting. This was followed by classifying these challenges based on the type of problem presented in each paper. Furthermore, experiments have been conducted to evaluate forecast quality of the widely-used artificial intelligence models. To model the effects of recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, various data profiles with similar patterns to those events have been used. The most used neural network architecture for forecasting has been tested against a benchmark AI approach, revealing the limitations of current forecasting techniques on less stable demands. Subsequently, several research directions have been proposed.
Effective demand forecasting is critical for inventory management, production planning, and decision making across industries. Selecting the appropriate model and suitable features to efficiently capture patterns in the data is one of the main challenges in demand forecasting. In reality, this becomes even more complicated when the recorded sales have zeroes, which can happen naturally or due to some anomalies, such as stockouts and recording errors. Mistreating the zeroes can lead to the application of inappropriate forecasting methods, and thus leading to poor decision making. Furthermore, the demand itself can have different fundamental characteristics, and being able to distinguish one type from another might bring substantial benefits in terms of accuracy and thus decision making. We propose a two-stage model-based classification framework that in the first step, identifies artificially occurring zeroes, and then classifies demand to one of the possible types: regular/intermittent, intermittent smooth/lumpy, fractional/count. The framework utilises statistical modelling and information criteria to detect anomalous zeroes and then classify demand into those categories. We then argue that different types of demand need different features, and show empirically that they tend to increase the accuracy of the forecasting methods compared to those applied directly to the dataset without the generated features and the two-stage framework. Our general practical recommendation based on that is to use the mixture approach for intermittent demand, capturing the demand sizes and demand probability separately, as it seems to improve the accuracy of different forecasting approaches.
Demand is spiking in industrial fields for multidisciplinary forecasting, where a broad spectrum of sectors needs planning and forecasts to streamline intelligent business management, such as demand forecasting, product planning, inventory optimization, etc. Specifically, these tasks expecting intelligent approaches to learn from sequentially collected historical data and then foresee most possible trend, i.e. time series forecasting. Challenge of it lies in interpreting complex business contexts and the efficiency and generalisation of modelling. With aspirations of pre-trained foundational models for such purpose, given their remarkable success of large foundation model across legions of tasks, we disseminate \leforecast{}, an enterprise intelligence platform tailored for time series tasks. It integrates advanced interpretations of time series data and multi-source information, and a three-pillar modelling engine combining a large foundation model (Le-TSFM), multimodal model and hybrid model to derive insights, predict or infer futures, and then drive optimisation across multiple sectors in enterprise operations. The framework is composed by a model pool, model profiling module, and two different fusion approaches regarding original model architectures. Experimental results verify the efficiency of our trail fusion concepts: router-based fusion network and coordination of large and small models, resulting in high costs for redundant development and maintenance of models. This work reviews deployment of LeForecast and its performance in three industrial use cases. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that LeForecast is a profound and practical platform for efficient and competitive performance. And we do hope that this work can enlighten the research and grounding of time series techniques in accelerating enterprise.
The wastage of perishable items has led to significant health and economic crises, increasing business uncertainty and fluctuating customer demand. This issue is worsened by online food delivery services, where frequent and unpredictable orders create inefficiencies in supply chain management, contributing to the bullwhip effect. This effect results in stockouts, excess inventory, and inefficiencies. Accurate demand forecasting helps stabilize inventory, optimize supplier orders, and reduce waste. This paper presents a Third-Party Logistics (3PL) supply chain model involving restaurants, online food apps, and customers, along with a deep learning-based demand forecasting model using a two-phase Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Phase one, intra-day forecasting, captures short-term variations, while phase two, daily forecasting, predicts overall demand. A two-year dataset from January 2023 to January 2025 from Swiggy and Zomato is used, employing discrete event simulation and grid search for optimal LSTM hyperparameters. The proposed method is evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and R-squared score, with R-squared as the primary accuracy measure. Phase one achieves an R-squared score of 0.69 for Zomato and 0.71 for Swiggy with a training time of 12 minutes, while phase two improves to 0.88 for Zomato and 0.90 for Swiggy with a training time of 8 minutes. To mitigate demand fluctuations, restaurant inventory is dynamically managed using the newsvendor model, adjusted based on forecasted demand. The proposed framework significantly reduces the bullwhip effect, improving forecasting accuracy and supply chain efficiency. For phase one, supply chain instability decreases from 2.61 to 0.96, and for phase two, from 2.19 to 0.80. This demonstrates the model's effectiveness in minimizing food waste and maintaining optimal restaurant inventory levels.
Electricity demand forecasting is key to ensuring that supply meets demand lest the grid would blackout. Reliable short-term forecasts may be obtained by combining a Generalized Additive Models (GAM) with a State-Space model (Obst et al., 2021), leading to an adaptive (or online) model. A GAM is an over-parameterized linear model defined by a formula and a state-space model involves hyperparameters. Both the formula and adaptation parameters have to be fixed before model training and have a huge impact on the model's predictive performance. We propose optimizing them using the DRAGON package of Keisler (2025), originally designed for neural architecture search. This work generalizes it for automated online generalized additive model selection by defining an efficient modeling of the search space (namely, the space of the GAM formulae and adaptation parameters). Its application to short-term French electricity demand forecasting demonstrates the relevance of the approach
Residential electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient energy management and grid stability. Accurate predictions enable utility companies to optimize planning and operations. However, real-world residential electricity demand data often exhibit intricate temporal variability, including multiple seasonalities, periodicities, and abrupt fluctuations, which pose significant challenges for forecasting models. Previous models that rely on statistical methods, recurrent, convolutional neural networks, and transformers often struggle to capture these intricate temporal dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose the Seasonal-Periodic Decomposition Network (SPDNet), a novel deep learning framework consisting of two main modules. The first is the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Module (STDM), which decomposes the input data into trend, seasonal, and residual components. The second is the Periodical Decomposition Module (PDM), which employs the Fast Fourier Transform to identify the dominant periods. For each dominant period, 1D input data is reshaped into a 2D tensor, where rows represent periods and columns correspond to frequencies. The 2D representations are then processed through three submodules: a 1D convolution to capture sharp fluctuations, a transformer-based encoder to model global patterns, and a 2D convolution to capture interactions between periods. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world residential electricity load data demonstrate that SPDNet outperforms traditional and advanced models in both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Tims2D/SPDNet.
Accurate tourism demand forecasting is hindered by limited historical data and complex spatiotemporal dependencies among tourist origins. A novel forecasting framework integrating virtual sample generation and a novel Transformer predictor addresses constraints arising from restricted data availability. A spatiotemporal GAN produces realistic virtual samples by dynamically modeling spatial correlations through a graph convolutional network, and an enhanced Transformer captures local patterns with causal convolutions and long-term dependencies with self-attention,eliminating autoregressive decoding. A joint training strategy refines virtual sample generation based on predictor feedback to maintain robust performance under data-scarce conditions. Experimental evaluations on real-world daily and monthly tourism demand datasets indicate a reduction in average MASE by 18.37% compared to conventional Transformer-based models, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy. The integration of adaptive spatiotemporal sample augmentation with a specialized Transformer can effectively address limited-data forecasting scenarios in tourism management.
Federated learning (FL) enables retailers to share model parameters for demand forecasting while maintaining privacy. However, heterogeneous data across diverse regions, driven by factors such as varying consumer behavior, poses challenges to the effectiveness of federated learning. To tackle this challenge, we propose Privacy-Adaptive Clustered Federated Learning (PA-CFL) tailored for demand forecasting on heterogeneous retail data. By leveraging differential privacy and feature importance distribution, PA-CFL groups retailers into distinct ``bubbles'', each forming its own federated learning system to effectively isolate data heterogeneity. Within each bubble, Transformer models are designed to predict local sales for each client. Our experiments demonstrate that PA-CFL significantly surpasses FedAvg and outperforms local learning in demand forecasting performance across all participating clients. Compared to local learning, PA-CFL achieves a 5.4% improvement in R^2, a 69% reduction in RMSE, and a 45% decrease in MAE. Our approach enables effective FL through adaptive adjustments to diverse noise levels and the range of clients participating in each bubble. By grouping participants and proactively filtering out high-risk clients, PA-CFL mitigates potential threats to the FL system. The findings demonstrate PA-CFL's ability to enhance federated learning in time series prediction tasks with heterogeneous data, achieving a balance between forecasting accuracy and privacy preservation in retail applications. Additionally, PA-CFL's capability to detect and neutralize poisoned data from clients enhances the system's robustness and reliability.
This paper presents an advanced Federated Learning (FL) framework for forecasting complex spatiotemporal data, improving upon recent state-of-the-art models. In the proposed approach, the original Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) module within previous Dynamic Spatial--Temporal Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (DSTGCRN) modeling is first replaced with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, enabling the resulting model to more effectively capture long-term dependencies inherent to time series data. The resulting architecture significantly improves the model's capacity to handle complex temporal patterns in diverse forecasting applications. Furthermore, the proposed FL framework integrates a novel Client-Side Validation (CSV) mechanism, introducing a critical validation step at the client level before incorporating aggregated parameters from the central server into local models. This ensures that only the most effective updates are adopted, improving both the robustness and accuracy of the forecasting model across clients. The efficiency of our approach is demonstrated through extensive experiments on real-world applications, including public datasets for multimodal transport demand forecasting and private datasets for Origin-Destination (OD) matrix forecasting in urban areas. The results demonstrate substantial improvements over conventional methods, highlighting the framework's ability to capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies while preserving data privacy. This work not only provides a scalable and privacy-preserving solution for real-time, region-specific forecasting and management but also underscores the potential of leveraging distributed data sources in a FL context. We provide our algorithms as open-source on GitHub.
The integration of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into transportation planning has the potential to revolutionize tasks such as demand forecasting, infrastructure design, policy evaluation, and traffic simulation. However, there is a critical need for a systematic framework to guide the adoption of GenAI in this interdisciplinary domain. In this survey, we, a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and transportation engineering, present the first comprehensive framework for leveraging GenAI in transportation planning. Specifically, we introduce a new taxonomy that categorizes existing applications and methodologies into two perspectives: transportation planning tasks and computational techniques. From the transportation planning perspective, we examine the role of GenAI in automating descriptive, predictive, generative, simulation, and explainable tasks to enhance mobility systems. From the computational perspective, we detail advancements in data preparation, domain-specific fine-tuning, and inference strategies, such as retrieval-augmented generation and zero-shot learning tailored to transportation applications. Additionally, we address critical challenges, including data scarcity, explainability, bias mitigation, and the development of domain-specific evaluation frameworks that align with transportation goals like sustainability, equity, and system efficiency. This survey aims to bridge the gap between traditional transportation planning methodologies and modern AI techniques, fostering collaboration and innovation. By addressing these challenges and opportunities, we seek to inspire future research that ensures ethical, equitable, and impactful use of generative AI in transportation planning.
Understanding consumer choice is fundamental to marketing and management research, as firms increasingly seek to personalize offerings and optimize customer engagement. Traditional choice modeling frameworks, such as multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit models, impose rigid parametric assumptions that limit their ability to capture the complexity of consumer decision-making. This study introduces the Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework as a machine learning-driven alternative that dynamically segments consumers based on latent behavioral patterns. By leveraging probabilistic gating functions and specialized expert networks, MoE provides a flexible, nonparametric approach to modeling heterogeneous preferences. Empirical validation using large-scale retail data demonstrates that MoE significantly enhances predictive accuracy over traditional econometric models, capturing nonlinear consumer responses to price variations, brand preferences, and product attributes. The findings underscore MoEs potential to improve demand forecasting, optimize targeted marketing strategies, and refine segmentation practices. By offering a more granular and adaptive framework, this study bridges the gap between data-driven machine learning approaches and marketing theory, advocating for the integration of AI techniques in managerial decision-making and strategic consumer insights.
Comprehensive forecasts of space tourism demand are crucial for businesses to optimize strategies and customer experiences in this burgeoning industry. Traditional methods struggle to capture the complex factors influencing an individual's decision to travel to space. In this paper, we propose an explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence framework to address the challenge of predicting space tourism demand by following the National Institute of Standards and Technology guidelines. We develop a novel machine learning network, called SpaceNet, capable of learning wide-range dependencies in data and allowing us to analyze the relationships between various factors such as age, income, and risk tolerance. We investigate space travel demand in the US, categorizing it into four types: no travel, moon travel, suborbital, and orbital travel. To this end, we collected 1860 data points in many states and cities with different ages and then conducted our experiment with the data. From our experiments, the SpaceNet achieves an average ROC-AUC of 0.82 $\pm$ 0.088, indicating strong classification performance. Our investigation demonstrated that travel price, age, annual income, gender, and fatality probability are important features in deciding whether a person wants to travel or not. Beyond demand forecasting, we use explainable AI to provide interpretation for the travel-type decisions of an individual, offering insights into the factors driving interest in space travel, which is not possible with traditional classification methods. This knowledge enables businesses to tailor marketing strategies and optimize service offerings in this rapidly evolving market. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to implement an explainable and interpretable AI framework for investigating the factors influencing space tourism.
The widespread adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) poses critical challenges for energy providers, particularly in predicting charging time (temporal prediction), ensuring user privacy, and managing resources efficiently in mobility-driven networks. This paper introduces the Hierarchical Federated Learning Transformer Network (H-FLTN) framework to address these challenges. H-FLTN employs a three-tier hierarchical architecture comprising EVs, community Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), and the Energy Provider Data Centre (EPDC) to enable accurate spatio-temporal predictions of EV charging needs while preserving privacy. Temporal prediction is enhanced using Transformer-based learning, capturing complex dependencies in charging behavior. Privacy is ensured through Secure Aggregation, Additive Secret Sharing, and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Sharing with Augmentation, which allow only secret shares of model weights to be exchanged while securing all transmissions. To improve training efficiency and resource management, H-FLTN integrates Dynamic Client Capping Mechanism (DCCM) and Client Rotation Management (CRM), ensuring that training remains both computationally and temporally efficient as the number of participating EVs increases. DCCM optimises client participation by limiting excessive computational loads, while CRM balances training contributions across epochs, preventing imbalanced participation. Our simulation results based on large-scale empirical vehicle mobility data reveal that DCCM and CRM reduce the training time complexity with increasing EVs from linear to constant. Its integration into real-world smart city infrastructure enhances energy demand forecasting, resource allocation, and grid stability, ensuring reliability and sustainability in future mobility ecosystems.
As the number of electric vehicles (EVs) continues to grow, the demand for charging stations is also increasing, leading to challenges such as long wait times and insufficient infrastructure. High-precision forecasting of EV charging demand is crucial for efficient station management, to address some of these challenges. This paper presents an approach to predict the charging demand at 15-minute intervals for the day ahead using a multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) network with an attention mechanism. Additionally, the model leverages explainable AI techniques to evaluate the influence of various factors on the predictions, including weather conditions, day of the week, month, and any holiday. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to quantify the contribution of each feature to the final forecast, providing deeper insights into how these factors affect prediction accuracy. As a result, the framework offers enhanced decision-making for infrastructure planning. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations using the test data collected from the EV charging stations at California State University, Long Beach.
Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents challenges, including incomplete data, poor data quality, and the need to account for multiple geographical and product factors. Current methods often rely on simple forecasting techniques, which fail to capture demand uncertainties arising from these factors, warranting expert involvement. Our study aims to improve contraceptive demand forecasting by combining probabilistic forecasting methods with expert knowledge. We developed a hybrid model that combines point forecasts from domain-specific model with probabilistic distributions from statistical and machine learning approaches, enabling human input to fine-tune and enhance the system-generated forecasts. This approach helps address the uncertainties in demand and is particularly useful in resource-limited settings. We evaluate different forecasting methods, including time series, Bayesian, machine learning, and foundational time series methods alongside our new hybrid approach. By comparing these methods, we provide insights into their strengths, weaknesses, and computational requirements. Our research fills a gap in forecasting contraceptive demand and offers a practical framework that combines algorithmic and human expertise. Our proposed model can also be generalized to other humanitarian contexts with similar data patterns.