Spatiotemporal Graph Learning (SGL) under Zero-Inflated Distribution (ZID) is crucial for urban risk management tasks, including crime prediction and traffic accident profiling. However, SGL models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, compromising their practical utility. While adversarial training (AT) has been widely used to bolster model robustness, our study finds that traditional AT exacerbates performance disparities between majority and minority classes under ZID, potentially leading to irreparable losses due to underreporting critical risk events. In this paper, we first demonstrate the smaller top-k gradients and lower separability of minority class are key factors contributing to this disparity. To address these issues, we propose MinGRE, a framework for Minority Class Gradients and Representations Enhancement. MinGRE employs a multi-dimensional attention mechanism to reweight spatiotemporal gradients, minimizing the gradient distribution discrepancies across classes. Additionally, we introduce an uncertainty-guided contrastive loss to improve the inter-class separability and intra-class compactness of minority representations with higher uncertainty. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the MinGRE framework not only significantly reduces the performance disparity across classes but also achieves enhanced robustness compared to existing baselines. These findings underscore the potential of our method in fostering the development of more equitable and robust models.
With the acceleration of urbanization, the spatiotemporal characteristics of criminal activities have become increasingly complex. Accurate prediction of crime distribution is crucial for optimizing the allocation of police resources and preventing crime. This paper proposes LGSTime, a crime spatiotemporal prediction model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and the Multi-head Sparse Self-attention mechanism. LSTM and GRU capture long-term dependencies in crime time series, such as seasonality and periodicity, through their unique gating mechanisms. The Multi-head Sparse Self-attention mechanism, on the other hand, focuses on both temporal and spatial features of criminal events simultaneously through parallel processing and sparsification techniques, significantly improving computational efficiency and prediction accuracy. The integrated model leverages the strengths of each technique to better handle complex spatiotemporal data. Experimental findings demonstrate that the model attains optimal performance across four real - world crime datasets. In comparison to the CNN model, it exhibits performance enhancements of 2.8\%, 1.9\%, and 1.4\% in the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics respectively. These results offer a valuable reference for tackling the challenges in crime prediction.
The increasing availability of urban data offers new opportunities for learning region representations, which can be used as input to machine learning models for downstream tasks such as check-in or crime prediction. While existing solutions have produced promising results, an issue is their fixed formation of regions and fixed input region features, which may not suit the needs of different downstream tasks. To address this limitation, we propose a model named FlexiReg for urban region representation learning that is flexible with both the formation of urban regions and the input region features. FlexiReg is based on a spatial grid partitioning over the spatial area of interest. It learns representations for the grid cells, leveraging publicly accessible data, including POI, land use, satellite imagery, and street view imagery. We propose adaptive aggregation to fuse the cell representations and prompt learning techniques to tailor the representations towards different tasks, addressing the needs of varying formations of urban regions and downstream tasks. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that FlexiReg outperforms state-of-the-art models by up to 202% in term of the accuracy of four diverse downstream tasks using the produced urban region representations.
Effective spatio-temporal prediction frameworks play a crucial role in urban sensing applications, including traffic analysis, human mobility behavior modeling, and citywide crime prediction. However, the presence of data noise and label sparsity in spatio-temporal data presents significant challenges for existing neural network models in learning effective and robust region representations. To address these challenges, we propose a novel spatio-temporal graph masked autoencoder paradigm that explores generative self-supervised learning for effective spatio-temporal data augmentation. Our proposed framework introduces a spatial-temporal heterogeneous graph neural encoder that captures region-wise dependencies from heterogeneous data sources, enabling the modeling of diverse spatial dependencies. In our spatio-temporal self-supervised learning paradigm, we incorporate a masked autoencoding mechanism on node representations and structures. This mechanism automatically distills heterogeneous spatio-temporal dependencies across regions over time, enhancing the learning process of dynamic region-wise spatial correlations. To validate the effectiveness of our STGMAE framework, we conduct extensive experiments on various spatio-temporal mining tasks. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art baselines. The results of these evaluations demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework in terms of performance and its ability to address the challenges of spatial and temporal data noise and sparsity in practical urban sensing scenarios.
As various types of crime continue to threaten public safety and economic development, predicting the occurrence of multiple types of crimes becomes increasingly vital for effective prevention measures. Although extensive efforts have been made, most of them overlook the heterogeneity of different crime categories and fail to address the issue of imbalanced spatial distribution. In this work, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Mixture-of-Graph-Experts (ST-MoGE) framework for collective multiple-type crime prediction. To enhance the model's ability to identify diverse spatial-temporal dependencies and mitigate potential conflicts caused by spatial-temporal heterogeneity of different crime categories, we introduce an attentive-gated Mixture-of-Graph-Experts (MGEs) module to capture the distinctive and shared crime patterns of each crime category. Then, we propose Cross-Expert Contrastive Learning(CECL) to update the MGEs and force each expert to focus on specific pattern modeling, thereby reducing blending and redundancy. Furthermore, to address the issue of imbalanced spatial distribution, we propose a Hierarchical Adaptive Loss Re-weighting (HALR) approach to eliminate biases and insufficient learning of data-scarce regions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our methods, we conduct comprehensive experiments on two real-world crime datasets and compare our results with twelve advanced baselines. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our methods.
Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for robust and reliable predictions. However, existing spatiotemporal deep learning mostly focuses on deterministic prediction, overlooking the inherent uncertainty in such prediction. Particularly, highly-granular spatiotemporal datasets are often sparse, posing extra challenges in prediction and uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel post-hoc Sparsity-awar Uncertainty Calibration (SAUC) framework, which calibrates uncertainty in both zero and non-zero values. To develop SAUC, we firstly modify the state-of-the-art deterministic spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) to probabilistic ones in the pre-calibration phase. Then we calibrate the probabilistic ST-GNNs for zero and non-zero values using quantile approaches.Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that SAUC can effectively fit the variance of sparse data and generalize across two real-world spatiotemporal datasets at various granularities. Specifically, our empirical experiments show a 20\% reduction in calibration errors in zero entries on the sparse traffic accident and urban crime prediction. Overall, this work demonstrates the theoretical and empirical values of the SAUC framework, thus bridging a significant gap between uncertainty quantification and spatiotemporal prediction.
Traditional crime prediction techniques are slow and inefficient when generating predictions as crime increases rapidly \cite{r15}. To enhance traditional crime prediction methods, a Long Short-Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Unit model was constructed using datasets involving gender ratios, high school graduation rates, political status, unemployment rates, and median income by state over multiple years. While there may be other crime prediction tools, personalizing the model with hand picked factors allows a unique gap for the project. Producing an effective model would allow policymakers to strategically allocate specific resources and legislation in geographic areas that are impacted by crime, contributing to the criminal justice field of research \cite{r2A}. The model has an average total loss value of 70.792.30, and a average percent error of 9.74 percent, however both of these values are impacted by extreme outliers and with the correct optimization may be corrected.
Crime forecasting is a critical component of urban analysis and essential for stabilizing society today. Unlike other time series forecasting problems, crime incidents are sparse, particularly in small regions and within specific time periods. Traditional spatial-temporal deep learning models often struggle with this sparsity, as they typically cannot effectively handle the non-Gaussian nature of crime data, which is characterized by numerous zeros and over-dispersed patterns. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach termed Spatial Temporal Multivariate Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Graph Neural Networks (STMGNN-ZINB). This framework leverages diffusion and convolution networks to analyze spatial, temporal, and multivariate correlations, enabling the parameterization of probabilistic distributions of crime incidents. By incorporating a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model, STMGNN-ZINB effectively manages the sparse nature of crime data, enhancing prediction accuracy and the precision of confidence intervals. Our evaluation on real-world datasets confirms that STMGNN-ZINB outperforms existing models, providing a more reliable tool for predicting and understanding crime dynamics.
Crime prediction is a widely studied research problem due to its importance in ensuring safety of city dwellers. Starting from statistical and classical machine learning based crime prediction methods, in recent years researchers have focused on exploiting deep learning based models for crime prediction. Deep learning based crime prediction models use complex architectures to capture the latent features in the crime data, and outperform the statistical and classical machine learning based crime prediction methods. However, there is a significant research gap in existing research on the applicability of different models in different real-life scenarios as no longitudinal study exists comparing all these approaches in a unified setting. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of all major state-of-the-art deep learning based crime prediction models. Our evaluation provides several key insights on the pros and cons of these models, which enables us to select the most suitable models for different application scenarios. Based on the findings, we further recommend certain design practices that should be taken into account while building future deep learning based crime prediction models.
Deep learning architectures enhanced with human mobility data have been shown to improve the accuracy of short-term crime prediction models trained with historical crime data. However, human mobility data may be scarce in some regions, negatively impacting the correct training of these models. To address this issue, we propose a novel transfer learning framework for short-term crime prediction models, whereby weights from the deep learning crime prediction models trained in source regions with plenty of mobility data are transferred to target regions to fine-tune their local crime prediction models and improve crime prediction accuracy. Our results show that the proposed transfer learning framework improves the F1 scores for target cities with mobility data scarcity, especially when the number of months of available mobility data is small. We also show that the F1 score improvements are pervasive across different types of crimes and diverse cities in the US.
Deep learning crime predictive tools use past crime data and additional behavioral datasets to forecast future crimes. Nevertheless, these tools have been shown to suffer from unfair predictions across minority racial and ethnic groups. Current approaches to address this unfairness generally propose either pre-processing methods that mitigate the bias in the training datasets by applying corrections to crime counts based on domain knowledge or in-processing methods that are implemented as fairness regularizers to optimize for both accuracy and fairness. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning architecture that combines the power of these two approaches to increase prediction fairness. Our results show that the proposed model improves the fairness of crime predictions when compared to models with in-processing de-biasing approaches and with models without any type of bias correction, albeit at the cost of reducing accuracy.
Granularity and accuracy are two crucial factors for crime event prediction. Within fine-grained event classification, multiple criminal intents may alternately exhibit in preceding sequential events, and progress differently in next. Such intensive intent dynamics makes training models hard to capture unobserved intents, and thus leads to sub-optimal generalization performance, especially in the intertwining of numerous potential events. To capture comprehensive criminal intents, this paper proposes a fine-grained sequential crime prediction framework, CrimeAlarm, that equips with a novel mutual distillation strategy inspired by curriculum learning. During the early training phase, spot-shared criminal intents are captured through high-confidence sequence samples. In the later phase, spot-specific intents are gradually learned by increasing the contribution of low-confidence sequences. Meanwhile, the output probability distributions are reciprocally learned between prediction networks to model unobserved criminal intents. Extensive experiments show that CrimeAlarm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of NDCG@5, with improvements of 4.51% for the NYC16 and 7.73% for the CHI18 in accuracy measures.
Urban region profiling plays a crucial role in forecasting and decision-making in the context of dynamic and noisy urban environments. Existing methods often struggle with issues such as noise, data incompleteness, and security vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a novel framework, Enhanced Urban Region Profiling with Adversarial Self-Supervised Learning (EUPAS), to address these challenges. By combining adversarial contrastive learning with both supervised and self-supervised objectives, EUPAS ensures robust performance across various forecasting tasks such as crime prediction, check-in prediction, and land use classification. To enhance model resilience against adversarial attacks and noisy data, we incorporate several key components, including perturbation augmentation, trickster generator, and deviation copy generator. These innovations effectively improve the robustness of the embeddings, making EUPAS capable of handling the complexities and noise inherent in urban data. Experimental results show that EUPAS significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple tasks, achieving improvements in prediction accuracy of up to 10.8%. Notably, our model excels in adversarial attack tests, demonstrating its resilience in real-world, security-sensitive applications. This work makes a substantial contribution to the field of urban analytics by offering a more robust and secure approach to forecasting and profiling urban regions. It addresses key challenges in secure, data-driven modeling, providing a stronger foundation for future urban analytics and decision-making applications.
Spatio-temporal prediction is crucial in numerous real-world applications, including traffic forecasting and crime prediction, which aim to improve public transportation and safety management. Many state-of-the-art models demonstrate the strong capability of spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) to capture complex spatio-temporal correlations. However, despite their effectiveness, existing approaches do not adequately address several key challenges. Data quality issues, such as data scarcity and sparsity, lead to data noise and a lack of supervised signals, which significantly limit the performance of STGNN. Although recent STGNN models with contrastive learning aim to address these challenges, most of them use pre-defined augmentation strategies that heavily depend on manual design and cannot be customized for different Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) scenarios. To tackle these challenges, we propose a new spatio-temporal contrastive learning (CL4ST) framework to encode robust and generalizable STG representations via the STG augmentation paradigm. Specifically, we design the meta view generator to automatically construct node and edge augmentation views for each disentangled spatial and temporal graph in a data-driven manner. The meta view generator employs meta networks with parameterized generative model to customize the augmentations for each input. This personalizes the augmentation strategies for every STG and endows the learning framework with spatio-temporal-aware information. Additionally, we integrate a unified spatio-temporal graph attention network with the proposed meta view generator and two-branch graph contrastive learning paradigms. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our CL4ST significantly improves performance over various state-of-the-art baselines in traffic and crime prediction.
Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have gained popularity as a powerful tool for effectively modeling spatio-temporal dependencies in diverse real-world urban applications, including intelligent transportation and public safety. However, the black-box nature of STGNNs limits their interpretability, hindering their application in scenarios related to urban resource allocation and policy formulation. To bridge this gap, we propose an Explainable Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STExplainer) framework that enhances STGNNs with inherent explainability, enabling them to provide accurate predictions and faithful explanations simultaneously. Our framework integrates a unified spatio-temporal graph attention network with a positional information fusion layer as the STG encoder and decoder, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a structure distillation approach based on the Graph Information Bottleneck (GIB) principle with an explainable objective, which is instantiated by the STG encoder and decoder. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our STExplainer outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of predictive accuracy and explainability metrics (i.e., sparsity and fidelity) on traffic and crime prediction tasks. Furthermore, our model exhibits superior representation ability in alleviating data missing and sparsity issues. The implementation code is available at: https://github.com/HKUDS/STExplainer.
There have thousands of crimes are happening daily all around. But people keep statistics only few of them, therefore crime rates are increasing day by day. The reason behind can be less concern or less statistics of previous crimes. It is much more important to observe the previous crime statistics for general people to make their outing decision and police for catching the criminals are taking steps to restrain the crimes and tourists to make their travelling decision. National institute of justice releases crime survey data for the country, but does not offer crime statistics up to Union or Thana level. Considering all of these cases we have come up with an approach which can give an approximation to people about the safety of a specific location with crime ranking of different areas locating the crimes on a map including a future crime occurrence prediction mechanism. Our approach relies on different online Bangla newspapers for crawling the crime data, stemming and keyword extraction, location finding algorithm, cosine similarity, naive Bayes classifier, and a custom crime prediction model
Urban anomaly predictions, such as traffic accident prediction and crime prediction, are of vital importance to smart city security and maintenance. Existing methods typically use deep learning to capture the intra-dependencies in spatial and temporal dimensions. However, numerous key challenges remain unsolved, for instance, sparse zero-inflated data due to urban anomalies occurring with low frequency (which can lead to poor performance on real-world datasets), and both intra- and inter-dependencies of abnormal patterns across spatial, temporal, and semantic dimensions. Moreover, a unified approach to predict multiple kinds of anomaly is left to explore. In this paper, we propose STS to jointly capture the intra- and inter-dependencies between the patterns and the influential factors in three dimensions. Further, we use a multi-task prediction module with a customized loss function to solve the zero-inflated issue. To verify the effectiveness of the model, we apply it to two urban anomaly prediction tasks, crime prediction and traffic accident risk prediction, respectively. Experiments on two application scenarios with four real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of STS, which outperforms state-of-the-art methods in the mean absolute error and the root mean square error by 37.88% and 18.10% on zero-inflated datasets, and, 60.32% and 37.28% on non-zero datasets, respectively.
Predicting crime using machine learning and deep learning techniques has gained considerable attention from researchers in recent years, focusing on identifying patterns and trends in crime occurrences. This review paper examines over 150 articles to explore the various machine learning and deep learning algorithms applied to predict crime. The study provides access to the datasets used for crime prediction by researchers and analyzes prominent approaches applied in machine learning and deep learning algorithms to predict crime, offering insights into different trends and factors related to criminal activities. Additionally, the paper highlights potential gaps and future directions that can enhance the accuracy of crime prediction. Finally, the comprehensive overview of research discussed in this paper on crime prediction using machine learning and deep learning approaches serves as a valuable reference for researchers in this field. By gaining a deeper understanding of crime prediction techniques, law enforcement agencies can develop strategies to prevent and respond to criminal activities more effectively.
An automated approach to identifying offenders in Sri Lanka would be better than the current system. Obtaining information from eyewitnesses is one of the less reliable approaches and procedures still in use today. Automated criminal identification has the ability to save lives, notwithstanding Sri Lankan culture's lack of awareness of the issue. Using cutting-edge technology like biometrics to finish this task would be the most accurate strategy. The most notable outcomes will be obtained by applying fingerprint and face recognition as biometric techniques. The main responsibilities will be image optimization and criminality. CCTV footage may be used to identify a person's fingerprint, identify a person's face, and identify crimes involving weapons. Additionally, we unveil a notification system and condense the police report to Additionally, to make it simpler for police officers to understand the essential points of the crime, we develop a notification system and condense the police report. Additionally, if an incident involving a weapon is detected, an automated notice of the crime with all the relevant facts is sent to the closest police station. The summarization of the police report is what makes this the most original. In order to improve the efficacy of the overall image, the system will quickly and precisely identify the full crime scene, identify, and recognize the suspects using their faces and fingerprints, and detect firearms. This study provides a novel approach for crime prediction based on real-world data, and criminality incorporation. A crime or occurrence should be reported to the appropriate agencies, and the suggested web application should be improved further to offer a workable channel of communication.
Crime is an unlawful act that carries legal repercussions. Bangladesh has a high crime rate due to poverty, population growth, and many other socio-economic issues. For law enforcement agencies, understanding crime patterns is essential for preventing future criminal activity. For this purpose, these agencies need structured crime database. This paper introduces a novel crime dataset that contains temporal, geographic, weather, and demographic data about 6574 crime incidents of Bangladesh. We manually gather crime news articles of a seven year time span from a daily newspaper archive. We extract basic features from these raw text. Using these basic features, we then consult standard service-providers of geo-location and weather data in order to garner these information related to the collected crime incidents. Furthermore, we collect demographic information from Bangladesh National Census data. All these information are combined that results in a standard machine learning dataset. Together, 36 features are engineered for the crime prediction task. Five supervised machine learning classification algorithms are then evaluated on this newly built dataset and satisfactory results are achieved. We also conduct exploratory analysis on various aspects the dataset. This dataset is expected to serve as the foundation for crime incidence prediction systems for Bangladesh and other countries. The findings of this study will help law enforcement agencies to forecast and contain crime as well as to ensure optimal resource allocation for crime patrol and prevention.