High-quality matches between patients and primary care providers improve downstream health outcomes, yet provider turnover breaks these matches and forces patients to be reassigned. Health systems facing this problem must decide not only which providers to recommend, but how much choice to offer. Direct assignment avoids competition for scarce provider capacity but relies on noisy estimates of patient preferences; broader choice allows patients to correct these estimates using private information but can create costly coordination failures. We study this tradeoff through the design of fixed, personalized menus from which patients choose providers. We show that constructing the optimal menu is NP-hard and establish an information-theoretic lower bound. We find that offering each patient a single provider matches this bound up to a constant factor, while unrestricted choice can perform arbitrarily poorly. However, we show that additional choice improves on single-provider assignment when the system cannot reliably distinguish among a patient's alternatives. We formalize this tradeoff through two forms of loss: menu loss, which arises when menus offer too few options, and coordination loss, which arises when scarce capacity is exposed to too much choice. Motivated by this decomposition, we develop the Scenario-Averaged Marginals (SAM) algorithm, which tailors menus based on provider shadow prices so choice is offered only when utility exceeds the capacity cost. We identify sufficient conditions which SAM's regret matches the lower bound, namely when patients have valuable alternatives and offered menus don't create competition for scarce capacity. In a semi-synthetic environment calibrated to a provider network using Medicare data, SAM improves total utility by up to 19% over single-provider assignment as preference uncertainty grows, while improving utility for the least-served ZIP codes.
We study the fundamental problem of offline assortment optimization under the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, where sellers must determine the optimal subset of the products to offer based solely on historical customer choice data. While most existing approaches to learning-based assortment optimization focus on the online learning of the optimal assortment through repeated interactions with customers, such exploration can be costly or even impractical in many real-world settings. In this paper, we consider the offline learning paradigm and investigate the minimal data requirements for efficient offline assortment optimization. To this end, we introduce Pessimistic Rank-Breaking (PRB), an algorithm that combines rank-breaking with pessimistic estimation. We prove that PRB is nearly minimax optimal by establishing the tight suboptimality upper bound and a nearly matching lower bound. This further shows that "optimal item coverage" - where each item in the optimal assortment appears sufficiently often in the historical data - is both sufficient and necessary for efficient offline learning. This significantly relaxes the previous requirement of observing the complete optimal assortment in the data. Our results provide fundamental insights into the data requirements for offline assortment optimization under the MNL model.
We provide a new online learning algorithm for tackling the Multinomial Logit Bandit (MNL-Bandit) problem. Despite the challenges posed by the combinatorial nature of the MNL model, we develop a novel Upper Confidence Bound (UCB)-based method that achieves Pareto optimality by balancing regret minimization and estimation error of the assortment revenues and the MNL parameters. We develop theoretical guarantees characterizing the tradeoff between regret and estimation error for the MNL-Bandit problem through information-theoretic bounds, and propose a modified UCB algorithm that incorporates forced exploration to improve parameter estimation accuracy while maintaining low regret. Our analysis sheds critical insights into how to optimally balance the collected revenues and the treatment estimation in dynamic assortment optimization.
In the rapidly evolving domain of large-scale retail data systems, envisioning and simulating future consumer transactions has become a crucial area of interest. It offers significant potential to fortify demand forecasting and fine-tune inventory management. This paper presents an innovative application of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate synthetic retail transaction data, specifically focusing on a novel system architecture that combines consumer behavior modeling with stock-keeping unit (SKU) availability constraints to address real-world assortment optimization challenges. We diverge from conventional methodologies by integrating SKU data into our GAN architecture and using more sophisticated embedding methods (e.g., hyper-graphs). This design choice enables our system to generate not only simulated consumer purchase behaviors but also reflects the dynamic interplay between consumer behavior and SKU availability -- an aspect often overlooked, among others, because of data scarcity in legacy retail simulation models. Our GAN model generates transactions under stock constraints, pioneering a resourceful experimental system with practical implications for real-world retail operation and strategy. Preliminary results demonstrate enhanced realism in simulated transactions measured by comparing generated items with real ones using methods employed earlier in related studies. This underscores the potential for more accurate predictive modeling.
In this paper, we study the assortment optimization problem under the mixed-logit customer choice model. While assortment optimization has been a major topic in revenue management for decades, the mixed-logit model is considered one of the most general and flexible approaches for modeling and predicting customer purchasing behavior. Existing exact methods have primarily relied on mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) or second-order cone (CONIC) reformulations, which allow for exact problem solving using off-the-shelf solvers. However, these approaches often suffer from weak continuous relaxations and are slow when solving large instances. Our work addresses the problem by focusing on components of the objective function that can be proven to be monotonically super-modular and convex. This allows us to derive valid cuts to outer-approximate the nonlinear objective functions. We then demonstrate that these valid cuts can be incorporated into Cutting Plane or Branch-and-Cut methods to solve the problem exactly. Extensive experiments show that our approaches consistently outperform previous methods in terms of both solution quality and computation time.
In this paper, we consider a multi-stage dynamic assortment optimization problem with multi-nomial choice modeling (MNL) under resource knapsack constraints. Given the current resource inventory levels, the retailer makes an assortment decision at each period, and the goal of the retailer is to maximize the total profit from purchases. With the exact optimal dynamic assortment solution being computationally intractable, a practical strategy is to adopt the re-solving technique that periodically re-optimizes deterministic linear programs (LP) arising from fluid approximation. However, the fractional structure of MNL makes the fluid approximation in assortment optimization highly non-linear, which brings new technical challenges. To address this challenge, we propose a new epoch-based re-solving algorithm that effectively transforms the denominator of the objective into the constraint. Theoretically, we prove that the regret (i.e., the gap between the resolving policy and the optimal objective of the fluid approximation) scales logarithmically with the length of time horizon and resource capacities.
We address the problem of active online assortment optimization problem with preference feedback, which is a framework for modeling user choices and subsetwise utility maximization. The framework is useful in various real-world applications including ad placement, online retail, recommender systems, fine-tuning language models, amongst many. The problem, although has been studied in the past, lacks an intuitive and practical solution approach with simultaneously efficient algorithm and optimal regret guarantee. E.g., popularly used assortment selection algorithms often require the presence of a `strong reference' which is always included in the choice sets, further they are also designed to offer the same assortments repeatedly until the reference item gets selected -- all such requirements are quite unrealistic for practical applications. In this paper, we designed efficient algorithms for the problem of regret minimization in assortment selection with \emph{Plackett Luce} (PL) based user choices. We designed a novel concentration guarantee for estimating the score parameters of the PL model using `\emph{Pairwise Rank-Breaking}', which builds the foundation of our proposed algorithms. Moreover, our methods are practical, provably optimal, and devoid of the aforementioned limitations of the existing methods. Empirical evaluations corroborate our findings and outperform the existing baselines.
In this paper, we study a fundamental problem in submodular optimization, which is called sequential submodular maximization. Specifically, we aim to select and rank a group of $k$ items from a ground set $V$ such that the weighted summation of $k$ (possibly non-monotone) submodular functions $f_1, \cdots ,f_k: 2^V \rightarrow \mathbb{R}^+$ is maximized, here each function $f_j$ takes the first $j$ items from this sequence as input. The existing research on sequential submodular maximization has predominantly concentrated on the monotone setting, assuming that the submodular functions are non-decreasing. However, in various real-world scenarios, like diversity-aware recommendation systems, adding items to an existing set might negatively impact the overall utility. In response, this paper pioneers the examination of the aforementioned problem with non-monotone submodular functions and offers effective solutions for both flexible and fixed length constraints, as well as a special case with identical utility functions. The empirical evaluations further validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms in the domain of video recommendations. The results of this research have implications in various fields, including recommendation systems and assortment optimization, where the ordering of items significantly impacts the overall value obtained.
Discrete-choice models are used in economics, marketing and revenue management to predict customer purchase probabilities, say as a function of prices and other features of the offered assortment. While they have been shown to be expressive, capturing customer heterogeneity and behaviour, they are also hard to estimate, often based on many unobservables like utilities; and moreover, they still fail to capture many salient features of customer behaviour. A natural question then, given their success in other contexts, is if neural networks can eliminate the necessity of carefully building a context-dependent customer behaviour model and hand-coding and tuning the estimation. It is unclear however how one would incorporate assortment effects into such a neural network, and also how one would optimize the assortment with such a black-box generative model of choice probabilities. In this paper we investigate first whether a single neural network architecture can predict purchase probabilities for datasets from various contexts and generated under various models and assumptions. Next, we develop an assortment optimization formulation that is solvable by off-the-shelf integer programming solvers. We compare against a variety of benchmark discrete-choice models on simulated as well as real-world datasets, developing training tricks along the way to make the neural network prediction and subsequent optimization robust and comparable in performance to the alternates.
With a novel search algorithm or assortment planning or assortment optimization algorithm that takes into account a Bayesian approach to information updating and two-stage assortment optimization techniques, the current research provides a novel concept of competitiveness in the digital marketplace. Via the search algorithm, there is competition between the platform, vendors, and private brands of the platform. The current paper suggests a model and discusses how competition and collusion arise in the digital marketplace through assortment planning or assortment optimization algorithm. Furthermore, it suggests a model of an assortment algorithm free from collusion between the platform and the large vendors. The paper's major conclusions are that collusive assortment may raise a product's purchase likelihood but fail to maximize expected revenue. The proposed assortment planning, on the other hand, maintains competitiveness while maximizing expected revenue.
Consideration sets play a crucial role in discrete choice modeling, where customers often form consideration sets in the first stage and then use a second-stage choice mechanism to select the product with the highest utility. While many recent studies aim to improve choice models by incorporating more sophisticated second-stage choice mechanisms, this paper takes a step back and goes into the opposite extreme. We simplify the second-stage choice mechanism to its most basic form and instead focus on modeling customer choice by emphasizing the role and power of the first-stage consideration set formation. To this end, we study a model that is parameterized solely by a distribution over consideration sets with a bounded rationality interpretation. Intriguingly, we show that this model is characterized by the axiom of symmetric demand cannibalization, enabling complete statistical identification. The latter finding highlights the critical role of consideration sets in the identifiability of two-stage choice models. We also examine the model's implications for assortment planning, proving that the optimal assortment is revenue-ordered within each partition block created by consideration sets. Despite this compelling structure, we establish that the assortment problem under this model is NP-hard even to approximate, highlighting how consideration sets contribute to nontractability, even under the simplest uniform second-stage choice mechanism. Finally, using real-world data, we show that the model achieves prediction performance comparable to other advanced choice models. Given the simplicity of the model's second-stage phase, this result showcases the enormous power of first-stage consideration set formation in capturing customers' decision-making processes.
We consider a class of assortment optimization problems in an offline data-driven setting. A firm does not know the underlying customer choice model but has access to an offline dataset consisting of the historically offered assortment set, customer choice, and revenue. The objective is to use the offline dataset to find an optimal assortment. Due to the combinatorial nature of assortment optimization, the problem of insufficient data coverage is likely to occur in the offline dataset. Therefore, designing a provably efficient offline learning algorithm becomes a significant challenge. To this end, we propose an algorithm referred to as Pessimistic ASsortment opTimizAtion (PASTA for short) designed based on the principle of pessimism, that can correctly identify the optimal assortment by only requiring the offline data to cover the optimal assortment under general settings. In particular, we establish a regret bound for the offline assortment optimization problem under the celebrated multinomial logit model. We also propose an efficient computational procedure to solve our pessimistic assortment optimization problem. Numerical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing baseline method.
Assortment optimization has received active explorations in the past few decades due to its practical importance. Despite the extensive literature dealing with optimization algorithms and latent score estimation, uncertainty quantification for the optimal assortment still needs to be explored and is of great practical significance. Instead of estimating and recovering the complete optimal offer set, decision-makers may only be interested in testing whether a given property holds true for the optimal assortment, such as whether they should include several products of interest in the optimal set, or how many categories of products the optimal set should include. This paper proposes a novel inferential framework for testing such properties. We consider the widely adopted multinomial logit (MNL) model, where we assume that each customer will purchase an item within the offered products with a probability proportional to the underlying preference score associated with the product. We reduce inferring a general optimal assortment property to quantifying the uncertainty associated with the sign change point detection of the marginal revenue gaps. We show the asymptotic normality of the marginal revenue gap estimator, and construct a maximum statistic via the gap estimators to detect the sign change point. By approximating the distribution of the maximum statistic with multiplier bootstrap techniques, we propose a valid testing procedure. We also conduct numerical experiments to assess the performance of our method.
Recent years brought an increasing interest in the application of machine learning algorithms in e-commerce, omnichannel marketing, and the sales industry. It is not only to the algorithmic advances but also to data availability, representing transactions, users, and background product information. Finding products related in different ways, i.e., substitutes and complements is essential for users' recommendations at the vendor's site and for the vendor - to perform efficient assortment optimization. The paper introduces a novel method for finding products' substitutes and complements based on the graph embedding Cleora algorithm. We also provide its experimental evaluation with regards to the state-of-the-art Shopper algorithm, studying the relevance of recommendations with surveys from industry experts. It is concluded that the new approach presented here offers suitable choices of recommended products, requiring a minimal amount of additional information. The algorithm can be used in various enterprises, effectively identifying substitute and complementary product options.
Given data on the choices made by consumers for different offer sets, a key challenge is to develop parsimonious models that describe and predict consumer choice behavior while being amenable to prescriptive tasks such as pricing and assortment optimization. The marginal distribution model (MDM) is one such model, which requires only the specification of marginal distributions of the random utilities. This paper aims to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for given choice data to be consistent with the MDM hypothesis, inspired by the usefulness of similar characterizations for the random utility model (RUM). This endeavor leads to an exact characterization of the set of choice probabilities that the MDM can represent. Verifying the consistency of choice data with this characterization is equivalent to solving a polynomial-sized linear program. Since the analogous verification task for RUM is computationally intractable and neither of these models subsumes the other, MDM is helpful in striking a balance between tractability and representational power. The characterization is then used with robust optimization for making data-driven sales and revenue predictions for new unseen assortments. When the choice data lacks consistency with the MDM hypothesis, finding the best-fitting MDM choice probabilities reduces to solving a mixed integer convex program. Numerical results using real world data and synthetic data demonstrate that MDM exhibits competitive representational power and prediction performance compared to RUM and parametric models while being significantly faster in computation than RUM.
Crowdfunding, which is the act of raising funds from a large number of people's contributions, is among the most popular research topics in economic theory. Due to the fact that crowdfunding platforms (CFPs) have facilitated the process of raising funds by offering several features, we should take their existence and survival in the marketplace into account. In this study, we investigated the significant role of platform features in a customer behavioral choice model. In particular, we proposed a multinomial logit model to describe the customers' (backers') behavior in a crowdfunding setting. We proceed by discussing the revenue-sharing model in these platforms. For this purpose, we conclude that an assortment optimization problem could be of major importance in order to maximize the platforms' revenue. We were able to derive a reasonable amount of data in some cases and implement two well-known machine learning methods such as multivariate regression and classification problems to predict the best assortments the platform could offer to every arriving customer. We compared the results of these two methods and investigated how well they perform in all cases.
To study the limits of personalization, we introduce the notion of a clairvoyant firm that can read the mind of consumers and sell them the highest revenue product that they are willing to buy. We show how to compute the expected revenue of the clairvoyant firm for a class of rational discrete choice models, and develop prophet-type inequalities that provide performance guarantees for the expected revenue of the traditional assortment optimization firm (a TAOP firm) relative to the clairvoyant firm, and therefore to any effort to personalize assortments. In particular, we show that the expected revenue of the clairvoyant firm cannot exceed twice the expected revenue of the TAOP for the RCS model, the MNL, the GAM and the Nested Logit Model. On the other hand, there are random utility models for which personalized assortments can earn up to $n$ times more than a TAOP firm, where $n$ is the number of products. Our numerical studies indicate that when the mean utilities of the products are heterogeneous among consumer types, and the variance of the utilities is small, firms can gain substantial benefits from personalized assortments. We support these observations, and others, with theoretical findings. While the consumers surplus can potentially be larger under personalized assortments, clairvoyant firms with pricing power can extract all surplus, and earn arbitrarily more than traditional firms that optimize over prices but do not personalize them. For the price-aware MNL, however, a clairvoyant firm can earn at most $e$ times more than a traditional firm.
We introduce the refined assortment optimization problem where a firm may decide to make some of its products harder to get instead of making them unavailable as in the traditional assortment optimization problem. Airlines, for example, offer fares with severe restrictions rather than making them unavailable. This is a more subtle way of handling the trade-off between demand induction and demand cannibalization. For the latent class MNL model, a firm that engages in refined assortment optimization can make up to $\min(n,m)$ times more than one that insists on traditional assortment optimization, where $n$ is the number of products and $m$ the number of customer types. Surprisingly, the revenue-ordered assortment heuristic has the same performance guarantees relative to {\em personalized} refined assortment optimization as it does to traditional assortment optimization. Based on this finding, we construct refinements of the revenue-order heuristic and measure their improved performance relative to the revenue-ordered assortment and the optimal traditional assortment optimization problem. We also provide tight bounds on the ratio of the expected revenues for the refined versus the traditional assortment optimization for some well known discrete choice models.
In this paper we study the adversarial combinatorial bandit with a known non-linear reward function, extending existing work on adversarial linear combinatorial bandit. {The adversarial combinatorial bandit with general non-linear reward is an important open problem in bandit literature, and it is still unclear whether there is a significant gap from the case of linear reward, stochastic bandit, or semi-bandit feedback.} We show that, with $N$ arms and subsets of $K$ arms being chosen at each of $T$ time periods, the minimax optimal regret is $\widetilde\Theta_{d}(\sqrt{N^d T})$ if the reward function is a $d$-degree polynomial with $d< K$, and $\Theta_K(\sqrt{N^K T})$ if the reward function is not a low-degree polynomial. {Both bounds are significantly different from the bound $O(\sqrt{\mathrm{poly}(N,K)T})$ for the linear case, which suggests that there is a fundamental gap between the linear and non-linear reward structures.} Our result also finds applications to adversarial assortment optimization problem in online recommendation. We show that in the worst-case of adversarial assortment problem, the optimal algorithm must treat each individual $\binom{N}{K}$ assortment as independent.
Online allocation problems with resource constraints are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these problems, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates reward. The objective is to maximize cumulative rewards subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources. In this paper, we consider a data-driven setting in which the reward and resource consumption of each request are generated using an input model that is unknown to the decision maker. We design a general class of algorithms that attain good performance in various input models without knowing which type of input they are facing. In particular, our algorithms are asymptotically optimal under independent and identically distributed inputs as well as various non-stationary stochastic input models, and they attain an asymptotically optimal fixed competitive ratio when the input is adversarial. Our algorithms operate in the Lagrangian dual space: they maintain a dual multiplier for each resource that is updated using online mirror descent. By choosing the reference function accordingly, we recover the dual sub-gradient descent and dual multiplicative weights update algorithm. The resulting algorithms are simple, fast, and do not require convexity in the revenue function, consumption function and action space, in contrast to existing methods for online allocation problems. We discuss applications to network revenue management, online bidding in repeated auctions with budget constraints, online proportional matching with high entropy, and personalized assortment optimization with limited inventory.