This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in multivariate Hawkes processes using Fr\'echet statistic of a network. The method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window, and reconstructs the signed Laplacians by treating the kernel matrices as the adjacency matrices of the causal network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on both simulated and cryptocurrency datasets. Our results show that our method is capable of accurately detecting and characterizing changes in the causal structure of multivariate Hawkes processes, and may have potential applications in fields such as finance and neuroscience. The proposed method is an extension of previous work on Fr\'echet statistics in point process settings and represents an important contribution to the field of change point detection in multivariate point processes.
We propose a framework that can incrementally expand the explanatory temporal logic rule set to explain the occurrence of temporal events. Leveraging the temporal point process modeling and learning framework, the rule content and weights will be gradually optimized until the likelihood of the observational event sequences is optimal. The proposed algorithm alternates between a master problem, where the current rule set weights are updated, and a subproblem, where a new rule is searched and included to best increase the likelihood. The formulated master problem is convex and relatively easy to solve using continuous optimization, whereas the subproblem requires searching the huge combinatorial rule predicate and relationship space. To tackle this challenge, we propose a neural search policy to learn to generate the new rule content as a sequence of actions. The policy parameters will be trained end-to-end using the reinforcement learning framework, where the reward signals can be efficiently queried by evaluating the subproblem objective. The trained policy can be used to generate new rules in a controllable way. We evaluate our methods on both synthetic and real healthcare datasets, obtaining promising results.
In the marked temporal point processes (MTPP), a core problem is to parameterize the conditional joint PDF (probability distribution function) $p^*(m,t)$ for inter-event time $t$ and mark $m$, conditioned on the history. The majority of existing studies predefine intensity functions. Their utility is challenged by specifying the intensity function's proper form, which is critical to balance expressiveness and processing efficiency. Recently, there are studies moving away from predefining the intensity function -- one models $p^*(t)$ and $p^*(m)$ separately, while the other focuses on temporal point processes (TPPs), which do not consider marks. This study aims to develop high-fidelity $p^*(m,t)$ for discrete events where the event marks are either categorical or numeric in a multi-dimensional continuous space. We propose a solution framework IFIB (\underline{I}ntensity-\underline{f}ree \underline{I}ntegral-\underline{b}ased process) that models conditional joint PDF $p^*(m,t)$ directly without intensity functions. It remarkably simplifies the process to compel the essential mathematical restrictions. We show the desired properties of IFIB and the superior experimental results of IFIB on real-world and synthetic datasets. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/StepinSilence/IFIB}.
We propose a macroscopic market making model \`a la Avellaneda-Stoikov, using continuous processes for orders instead of discrete point processes. The model intends to bridge the gap between market making and optimal execution problems, while shedding light on the influence of order flows on the optimal strategies. We demonstrate our model through three problems. The study provides a comprehensive analysis from Markovian to non-Markovian noises and from linear to non-linear intensity functions, encompassing both bounded and unbounded coefficients. Mathematically, the contribution lies in the existence and uniqueness of the optimal control, guaranteed by the well-posedness of the strong solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and the (non-)Lipschitz forward-backward stochastic differential equation. Finally, the model's applications to price impact and optimal execution are discussed.
Temporal sequences have become pervasive in various real-world applications. Consequently, the volume of data generated in the form of continuous time-event sequence(s) or CTES(s) has increased exponentially in the past few years. Thus, a significant fraction of the ongoing research on CTES datasets involves designing models to address downstream tasks such as next-event prediction, long-term forecasting, sequence classification etc. The recent developments in predictive modeling using marked temporal point processes (MTPP) have enabled an accurate characterization of several real-world applications involving the CTESs. However, due to the complex nature of these CTES datasets, the task of large-scale retrieval of temporal sequences has been overlooked by the past literature. In detail, by CTES retrieval we mean that for an input query sequence, a retrieval system must return a ranked list of relevant sequences from a large corpus. To tackle this, we propose NeuroSeqRet, a first-of-its-kind framework designed specifically for end-to-end CTES retrieval. Specifically, NeuroSeqRet introduces multiple enhancements over standard retrieval frameworks and first applies a trainable unwarping function on the query sequence which makes it comparable with corpus sequences, especially when a relevant query-corpus pair has individually different attributes. Next, it feeds the unwarped query sequence and the corpus sequence into MTPP-guided neural relevance models. We develop four variants of the relevance model for different kinds of applications based on the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. We also propose an optimization framework to learn binary sequence embeddings from the relevance scores, suitable for the locality-sensitive hashing. Our experiments show the significant accuracy boost of NeuroSeqRet as well as the efficacy of our hashing mechanism.
The growth in social media has exacerbated the threat of fake news to individuals and communities. This draws increasing attention to developing efficient and timely rumor detection methods. The prevailing approaches resort to graph neural networks (GNNs) to exploit the post-propagation patterns of the rumor-spreading process. However, these methods lack inherent interpretation of rumor detection due to the black-box nature of GNNs. Moreover, these methods suffer from less robust results as they employ all the propagation patterns for rumor detection. In this paper, we address the above issues with the proposed Diverse Counterfactual Evidence framework for Rumor Detection (DCE-RD). Our intuition is to exploit the diverse counterfactual evidence of an event graph to serve as multi-view interpretations, which are further aggregated for robust rumor detection results. Specifically, our method first designs a subgraph generation strategy to efficiently generate different subgraphs of the event graph. We constrain the removal of these subgraphs to cause the change in rumor detection results. Thus, these subgraphs naturally serve as counterfactual evidence for rumor detection. To achieve multi-view interpretation, we design a diversity loss inspired by Determinantal Point Processes (DPP) to encourage diversity among the counterfactual evidence. A GNN-based rumor detection model further aggregates the diverse counterfactual evidence discovered by the proposed DCE-RD to achieve interpretable and robust rumor detection results. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show the superior performance of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/Vicinity111/DCE-RD.
Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.
New automated and high-throughput methods allow the manipulation and selection of numerous bacterial populations. In this manuscript we are interested in the neutral diversity patterns that emerge from such a setup in which many bacterial populations are grown in parallel serial transfers, in some cases with population-wide extinction and splitting events. We model bacterial growth by a birth-death process and use the theory of coalescent point processes. We show that there is a dilution factor that optimises the expected amount of neutral diversity for a given amount of cycles, and study the power law behaviour of the mutation frequency spectrum for different experimental regimes. We also explore how neutral variation diverges between two recently split populations by establishing a new formula for the expected number of shared and private mutations. Finally, we show the interest of such a setup to select a phenotype of interest that requires multiple mutations.
Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) serve as the standard mathematical framework for modeling asynchronous event sequences in continuous time. However, classical TPP models are often constrained by strong assumptions, limiting their ability to capture complex real-world event dynamics. To overcome this limitation, researchers have proposed Neural TPPs, which leverage neural network parametrizations to offer more flexible and efficient modeling. While recent studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Neural TPPs, they often lack a unified setup, relying on different baselines, datasets, and experimental configurations. This makes it challenging to identify the key factors driving improvements in predictive accuracy, hindering research progress. To bridge this gap, we present a comprehensive large-scale experimental study that systematically evaluates the predictive accuracy of state-of-the-art neural TPP models. Our study encompasses multiple real-world and synthetic event sequence datasets, following a carefully designed unified setup. We thoroughly investigate the influence of major architectural components such as event encoding, history encoder, and decoder parametrization on both time and mark prediction tasks. Additionally, we delve into the less explored area of probabilistic calibration for neural TPP models. By analyzing our results, we draw insightful conclusions regarding the significance of history size and the impact of architectural components on predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we shed light on the miscalibration of mark distributions in neural TPP models. Our study aims to provide valuable insights into the performance and characteristics of neural TPP models, contributing to a better understanding of their strengths and limitations.
Quantum algorithms have the potential to enhance machine learning across a variety of domains and applications. In this work, we show how quantum machine learning can be used to improve financial forecasting. First, we use classical and quantum Determinantal Point Processes to enhance Random Forest models for churn prediction, improving precision by almost 6%. Second, we design quantum neural network architectures with orthogonal and compound layers for credit risk assessment, which match classical performance with significantly fewer parameters. Our results demonstrate that leveraging quantum ideas can effectively enhance the performance of machine learning, both today as quantum-inspired classical ML solutions, and even more in the future, with the advent of better quantum hardware.
Modern foundation model architectures rely on attention mechanisms to effectively capture context. However, these methods require linear or quadratic memory in terms of the number of inputs/datapoints, limiting their applicability in low-compute domains. In this work, we propose Constant Memory Attention Block (CMAB), a novel general-purpose attention block that computes its output in constant memory and performs updates in constant computation. Highlighting CMABs efficacy, we introduce methods for Neural Processes and Temporal Point Processes. Empirically, we show our proposed methods achieve results competitive with state-of-the-art while being significantly more memory efficient.
Point process models are widely used for continuous asynchronous event data, where each data point includes time and additional information called "marks", which can be locations, nodes, or event types. This paper presents a novel point process model for discrete event data over graphs, where the event interaction occurs within a latent graph structure. Our model builds upon Hawkes's classic influence kernel-based formulation in the original self-exciting point processes work to capture the influence of historical events on future events' occurrence. The key idea is to represent the influence kernel by Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to capture the underlying graph structure while harvesting the strong representation power of GNNs. Compared with prior works focusing on directly modeling the conditional intensity function using neural networks, our kernel presentation herds the repeated event influence patterns more effectively by combining statistical and deep models, achieving better model estimation/learning efficiency and superior predictive performance. Our work significantly extends the existing deep spatio-temporal kernel for point process data, which is inapplicable to our setting due to the fundamental difference in the nature of the observation space being Euclidean rather than a graph. We present comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data to show the superior performance of the proposed approach against the state-of-the-art in predicting future events and uncovering the relational structure among data.
Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial heterogeneity and dependence. However, existing implementations of doubly-stochastic spatial models are computationally demanding, often have limited theoretical guarantee, and/or rely on restrictive assumptions. We propose a penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes that is computationally efficient and does not require a parametric form or stationarity of the underlying intensity. Our approach is based on an approximate (discrete and deterministic) formulation of the true (continuous and stochastic) intensity function. We show that consistency and asymptotic normality of the covariate effect estimates can be achieved despite the model misspecification, and develop a covariance estimator that leads to a valid, albeit conservative, statistical inference procedure. A simulation study shows the validity of our approach under less restrictive assumptions on the data generating mechanism, and an application to Seattle crime data demonstrates better prediction accuracy compared with existing alternatives.
Point processes often have a natural interpretation with respect to a continuous process. We propose a point process construction that describes arrival time observations in terms of the state of a latent diffusion process. In this framework, we relate the return times of a diffusion in a continuous path space to new arrivals of the point process. This leads to a continuous sample path that is used to describe the underlying mechanism generating the arrival distribution. These models arise in many disciplines, such as financial settings where actions in a market are determined by a hidden continuous price or in neuroscience where a latent stimulus generates spike trains. Based on the developments in It\^o's excursion theory, we propose methods for inferring and sampling from the point process derived from the latent diffusion process. We illustrate the approach with numerical examples using both simulated and real data. The proposed methods and framework provide a basis for interpreting point processes through the lens of diffusions.
DPPs were introduced by Macchi as a model in quantum optics the 1970s. Since then, they have been widely used as models and subsampling tools in statistics and computer science. Most applications require sampling from a DPP, and given their quantum origin, it is natural to wonder whether sampling a DPP on a quantum computer is easier than on a classical one. We focus here on DPPs over a finite state space, which are distributions over the subsets of $\{1,\dots,N\}$ parametrized by an $N\times N$ Hermitian kernel matrix. Vanilla sampling consists in two steps, of respective costs $\mathcal{O}(N^3)$ and $\mathcal{O}(Nr^2)$ operations on a classical computer, where $r$ is the rank of the kernel matrix. A large first part of the current paper consists in explaining why the state-of-the-art in quantum simulation of fermionic systems already yields quantum DPP sampling algorithms. We then modify existing quantum circuits, and discuss their insertion in a full DPP sampling pipeline that starts from practical kernel specifications. The bottom line is that, with $P$ (classical) parallel processors, we can divide the preprocessing cost by $P$ and build a quantum circuit with $\mathcal{O}(Nr)$ gates that sample a given DPP, with depth varying from $\mathcal{O}(N)$ to $\mathcal{O}(r\log N)$ depending on qubit-communication constraints on the target machine. We also connect existing work on the simulation of superconductors to Pfaffian point processes, which generalize DPPs and would be a natural addition to the machine learner's toolbox. In particular, we describe "projective" Pfaffian point processes, the cardinality of which has constant parity, almost surely. Finally, the circuits are empirically validated on a classical simulator and on 5-qubit IBM machines.
As the use of online platforms continues to grow across all demographics, users often express a desire to feel represented in the content. To improve representation in search results and recommendations, we introduce end-to-end diversification, ensuring that diverse content flows throughout the various stages of these systems, from retrieval to ranking. We develop, experiment, and deploy scalable diversification mechanisms in multiple production surfaces on the Pinterest platform, including Search, Related Products, and New User Homefeed, to improve the representation of different skin tones in beauty and fashion content. Diversification in production systems includes three components: identifying requests that will trigger diversification, ensuring diverse content is retrieved from the large content corpus during the retrieval stage, and finally, balancing the diversity-utility trade-off in a self-adjusting manner in the ranking stage. Our approaches, which evolved from using Strong-OR logical operator to bucketized retrieval at the retrieval stage and from greedy re-rankers to multi-objective optimization using determinantal point processes for the ranking stage, balances diversity and utility while enabling fast iterations and scalable expansion to diversification over multiple dimensions. Our experiments indicate that these approaches significantly improve diversity metrics, with a neutral to a positive impact on utility metrics and improved user satisfaction, both qualitatively and quantitatively, in production. An accessible PDF of this article is available at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p5PkqC-sdtX19Y_IAjZCtiSxSEX1IP3q/view
Point processes offer a versatile framework for sequential event modeling. However, the computational challenges and constrained representational power of the existing point process models have impeded their potential for wider applications. This limitation becomes especially pronounced when dealing with event data that is associated with multi-dimensional or high-dimensional marks such as texts or images. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel event-generation framework for modeling point processes with high-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of events without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density function. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space, as well as exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.
Spatio-temporal point process (STPP) is a stochastic collection of events accompanied with time and space. Due to computational complexities, existing solutions for STPPs compromise with conditional independence between time and space, which consider the temporal and spatial distributions separately. The failure to model the joint distribution leads to limited capacities in characterizing the spatio-temporal entangled interactions given past events. In this work, we propose a novel parameterization framework for STPPs, which leverages diffusion models to learn complex spatio-temporal joint distributions. We decompose the learning of the target joint distribution into multiple steps, where each step can be faithfully described by a Gaussian distribution. To enhance the learning of each step, an elaborated spatio-temporal co-attention module is proposed to capture the interdependence between the event time and space adaptively. For the first time, we break the restrictions on spatio-temporal dependencies in existing solutions, and enable a flexible and accurate modeling paradigm for STPPs. Extensive experiments from a wide range of fields, such as epidemiology, seismology, crime, and urban mobility, demonstrate that our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines remarkably, with an average improvement of over 50%. Further in-depth analyses validate its ability to capture spatio-temporal interactions, which can learn adaptively for different scenarios. The datasets and source code are available online: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/Spatio-temporal-Diffusion-Point-Processes.
Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular. However, existing neural network-based Hawkes process models not only i) fail to capture such complicated irregular dynamics, but also ii) resort to heuristics to calculate the log-likelihood of events since they are mostly based on neural networks designed for regular discrete inputs. To this end, we present the concept of Hawkes process based on controlled differential equations (HP-CDE), by adopting the neural controlled differential equation (neural CDE) technology which is an analogue to continuous RNNs. Since HP-CDE continuously reads data, i) irregular time-series datasets can be properly treated preserving their uneven temporal spaces, and ii) the log-likelihood can be exactly computed. Moreover, as both Hawkes processes and neural CDEs are first developed to model complicated human behavioral dynamics, neural CDE-based Hawkes processes are successful in modeling such occurrence dynamics. In our experiments with 4 real-world datasets, our method outperforms existing methods by non-trivial margins.
Masked Image Modeling (MIM) has achieved impressive representative performance with the aim of reconstructing randomly masked images. Despite the empirical success, most previous works have neglected the important fact that it is unreasonable to force the model to reconstruct something beyond recovery, such as those masked objects. In this work, we show that uniformly random masking widely used in previous works unavoidably loses some key objects and changes original semantic information, resulting in a misalignment problem and hurting the representative learning eventually. To address this issue, we augment MIM with a new masking strategy namely the DPPMask by substituting the random process with Determinantal Point Process (DPPs) to reduce the semantic change of the image after masking. Our method is simple yet effective and requires no extra learnable parameters when implemented within various frameworks. In particular, we evaluate our method on two representative MIM frameworks, MAE and iBOT. We show that DPPMask surpassed random sampling under both lower and higher masking ratios, indicating that DPPMask makes the reconstruction task more reasonable. We further test our method on the background challenge and multi-class classification tasks, showing that our method is more robust at various tasks.