A significant level of stigma and inequality exists in mental healthcare, especially in under-served populations. Inequalities are reflected in the data collected for scientific purposes. When not properly accounted for, machine learning (ML) models leart from data can reinforce these structural inequalities or biases. Here, we present a systematic study of bias in ML models designed to predict depression in four different case studies covering different countries and populations. We find that standard ML approaches show regularly biased behaviors. We also show that mitigation techniques, both standard and our own post-hoc method, can be effective in reducing the level of unfair bias. No single best ML model for depression prediction provides equality of outcomes. This emphasizes the importance of analyzing fairness during model selection and transparent reporting about the impact of debiasing interventions. Finally, we provide practical recommendations to develop bias-aware ML models for depression risk prediction.
Chain event graphs are a family of probabilistic graphical models that generalise Bayesian networks and have been successfully applied to a wide range of domains. Unlike Bayesian networks, these models can encode context-specific conditional independencies as well as asymmetric developments within the evolution of a process. More recently, new model classes belonging to the chain event graph family have been developed for modelling time-to-event data to study the temporal dynamics of a process. However, existing model selection algorithms for chain event graphs and its variants rely on all parameters having conjugate priors. This is unrealistic for many real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a mixture modelling approach to model selection in chain event graphs that does not rely on conjugacy. Moreover, we also show that this methodology is more amenable to being robustly scaled than the existing model selection algorithms used for this family. We demonstrate our techniques on simulated datasets.
The library scikit-fda is a Python package for Functional Data Analysis (FDA). It provides a comprehensive set of tools for representation, preprocessing, and exploratory analysis of functional data. The library is built upon and integrated in Python's scientific ecosystem. In particular, it conforms to the scikit-learn application programming interface so as to take advantage of the functionality for machine learning provided by this package: pipelines, model selection, and hyperparameter tuning, among others. The scikit-fda package has been released as free and open-source software under a 3-Clause BSD license and is open to contributions from the FDA community. The library's extensive documentation includes step-by-step tutorials and detailed examples of use.
The kernel function and its hyperparameters are the central model selection choice in a Gaussian proces (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006). Typically, the hyperparameters of the kernel are chosen by maximising the marginal likelihood, an approach known as Type-II maximum likelihood (ML-II). However, ML-II does not account for hyperparameter uncertainty, and it is well-known that this can lead to severely biased estimates and an underestimation of predictive uncertainty. While there are several works which employ a fully Bayesian characterisation of GPs, relatively few propose such approaches for the sparse GPs paradigm. In this work we propose an algorithm for sparse Gaussian process regression which leverages MCMC to sample from the hyperparameter posterior within the variational inducing point framework of Titsias (2009). This work is closely related to Hensman et al. (2015b) but side-steps the need to sample the inducing points, thereby significantly improving sampling efficiency in the Gaussian likelihood case. We compare this scheme against natural baselines in literature along with stochastic variational GPs (SVGPs) along with an extensive computational analysis.
Camera images are ubiquitous in machine learning research. They also play a central role in the delivery of important services spanning medicine and environmental surveying. However, the application of machine learning models in these domains has been limited because of robustness concerns. A primary failure mode are performance drops due to differences between the training and deployment data. While there are methods to prospectively validate the robustness of machine learning models to such dataset drifts, existing approaches do not account for explicit models of the primary object of interest: the data. This limits our ability to study and understand the relationship between data generation and downstream machine learning model performance in a physically accurate manner. In this study, we demonstrate how to overcome this limitation by pairing traditional machine learning with physical optics to obtain explicit and differentiable data models. We demonstrate how such data models can be constructed for image data and used to control downstream machine learning model performance related to dataset drift. The findings are distilled into three applications. First, drift synthesis enables the controlled generation of physically faithful drift test cases to power model selection and targeted generalization. Second, the gradient connection between machine learning task model and data model allows advanced, precise tolerancing of task model sensitivity to changes in the data generation. These drift forensics can be used to precisely specify the acceptable data environments in which a task model may be run. Third, drift optimization opens up the possibility to create drifts that can help the task model learn better faster, effectively optimizing the data generating process itself. A guide to access the open code and datasets is available at https://github.com/aiaudit-org/raw2logit.
Binary code similarity detection (BCSD) is widely used in various binary analysis tasks such as vulnerability search, malware detection, clone detection, and patch analysis. Recent studies have shown that the learning-based binary code embedding models perform better than the traditional feature-based approaches. However, previous studies have not delved deeply into the key factors that affect model performance. In this paper, we design extensive ablation studies to explore these influencing factors. The experimental results have provided us with many new insights. We have made innovations in both code representation and model selection: we propose a novel rich-semantic function representation technique to ensure the model captures the intricate nuances of binary code, and we introduce the first UniLM-based binary code embedding model, named UniASM, which includes two newly designed training tasks to learn representations of binary functions. The experimental results show that UniASM outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approaches on the evaluation datasets. The average scores of Recall@1 on cross-compilers, cross-optimization-levels, and cross-obfuscations have improved by 12.7%, 8.5%, and 22.3%, respectively, compared to the best of the baseline methods. Besides, in the real-world task of known vulnerability search, UniASM outperforms all the current baselines.
Today there exists no shortage of outlier detection algorithms in the literature, yet the complementary and critical problem of unsupervised outlier model selection (UOMS) is vastly understudied. In this work we propose ELECT, a new approach to select an effective candidate model, i.e. an outlier detection algorithm and its hyperparameter(s), to employ on a new dataset without any labels. At its core, ELECT is based on meta-learning; transferring prior knowledge (e.g. model performance) on historical datasets that are similar to the new one to facilitate UOMS. Uniquely, it employs a dataset similarity measure that is performance-based, which is more direct and goal-driven than other measures used in the past. ELECT adaptively searches for similar historical datasets, as such, it can serve an output on-demand, being able to accommodate varying time budgets. Extensive experiments show that ELECT significantly outperforms a wide range of basic UOMS baselines, including no model selection (always using the same popular model such as iForest) as well as more recent selection strategies based on meta-features.
In offline reinforcement learning (RL), a learner leverages prior logged data to learn a good policy without interacting with the environment. A major challenge in applying such methods in practice is the lack of both theoretically principled and practical tools for model selection and evaluation. To address this, we study the problem of model selection in offline RL with value function approximation. The learner is given a nested sequence of model classes to minimize squared Bellman error and must select among these to achieve a balance between approximation and estimation error of the classes. We propose the first model selection algorithm for offline RL that achieves minimax rate-optimal oracle inequalities up to logarithmic factors. The algorithm, ModBE, takes as input a collection of candidate model classes and a generic base offline RL algorithm. By successively eliminating model classes using a novel one-sided generalization test, ModBE returns a policy with regret scaling with the complexity of the minimally complete model class. In addition to its theoretical guarantees, it is conceptually simple and computationally efficient, amounting to solving a series of square loss regression problems and then comparing relative square loss between classes. We conclude with several numerical simulations showing it is capable of reliably selecting a good model class.
We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcomes. Towards this, a variety of surrogate metrics have been proposed for CATE model selection that use only observed data. However, we do not have a good understanding regarding their effectiveness due to limited comparisons in prior studies. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to benchmark the surrogate model selection metrics introduced in the literature, as well as the novel ones introduced in this work. We ensure a fair comparison by tuning the hyperparameters associated with these metrics via AutoML, and provide more detailed trends by incorporating realistic datasets via generative modeling. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter selection of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.
Learning-based approaches to modeling crowd motion have become increasingly successful but require training and evaluation on large datasets, coupled with complex model selection and parameter tuning. To circumvent this tremendously time-consuming process, we propose a novel scoring method, which characterizes generalization of models trained on source crowd scenarios and applied to target crowd scenarios using a training-free, model-agnostic Interaction + Diversity Quantification score, ISDQ. The Interaction component aims to characterize the difficulty of scenario domains, while the diversity of a scenario domain is captured in the Diversity score. Both scores can be computed in a computation tractable manner. Our experimental results validate the efficacy of the proposed method on several simulated and real-world (source,target) generalization tasks, demonstrating its potential to select optimal domain pairs before training and testing a model.
Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models. A key challenge in designing these algorithms is identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper addresses this challenge and proposes a novel framework for differentiable model selection integrating machine learning and combinatorial optimization. The framework is tailored for ensemble learning, a strategy that combines the outputs of individually pre-trained models, and learns to select appropriate ensemble members for a particular input sample by transforming the ensemble learning task into a differentiable selection program trained end-to-end within the ensemble learning model. Tested on various tasks, the proposed framework demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness, outperforming conventional and advanced consensus rules across a variety of settings and learning tasks.
A wide variety of battery models are available, and it is not always obvious which model `best' describes a dataset. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection approach using Bayesian quadrature. The model evidence is adopted as the selection metric, choosing the simplest model that describes the data, in the spirit of Occam's razor. However, estimating this requires integral computations over parameter space, which is usually prohibitively expensive. Bayesian quadrature offers sample-efficient integration via model-based inference that minimises the number of battery model evaluations. The posterior distribution of model parameters can also be inferred as a byproduct without further computation. Here, the simplest lithium-ion battery models, equivalent circuit models, were used to analyse the sensitivity of the selection criterion to given different datasets and model configurations. We show that popular model selection criteria, such as root-mean-square error and Bayesian information criterion, can fail to select a parsimonious model in the case of a multimodal posterior. The model evidence can spot the optimal model in such cases, simultaneously providing the variance of the evidence inference itself as an indication of confidence. We also show that Bayesian quadrature can compute the evidence faster than popular Monte Carlo based solvers.
We propose a new estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in a partially linear model (PLM) with multiple exogenous covariates and a potentially endogenous treatment variable. Our approach integrates a Robinson transformation to handle the nonparametric component, the Smooth Minimum Distance (SMD) method to leverage conditional mean independence restrictions, and a Neyman-Orthogonalized first-order condition (FOC). By employing regularized model selection techniques like the Lasso method, our estimator accommodates numerous covariates while exhibiting reduced bias, consistency, and asymptotic normality. Simulations demonstrate its robust performance with diverse instrument sets compared to traditional GMM-type estimators. Applying this method to estimate Medicaid's heterogeneous treatment effects from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment reveals more robust and reliable results than conventional GMM approaches.
Punctuation and Segmentation are key to readability in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), often evaluated using F1 scores that require high-quality human transcripts and do not reflect readability well. Human evaluation is expensive, time-consuming, and suffers from large inter-observer variability, especially in conversational speech devoid of strict grammatical structures. Large pre-trained models capture a notion of grammatical structure. We present TRScore, a novel readability measure using the GPT model to evaluate different segmentation and punctuation systems. We validate our approach with human experts. Additionally, our approach enables quantitative assessment of text post-processing techniques such as capitalization, inverse text normalization (ITN), and disfluency on overall readability, which traditional word error rate (WER) and slot error rate (SER) metrics fail to capture. TRScore is strongly correlated to traditional F1 and human readability scores, with Pearson's correlation coefficients of 0.67 and 0.98, respectively. It also eliminates the need for human transcriptions for model selection.
In this paper, we tackle the problem of selecting the optimal model for a given structured pattern classification dataset. In this context, a model can be understood as a classifier and a hyperparameter configuration. The proposed meta-learning approach purely relies on machine learning and involves four major steps. Firstly, we present a concise collection of 62 meta-features that address the problem of information cancellation when aggregation measure values involving positive and negative measurements. Secondly, we describe two different approaches for synthetic data generation intending to enlarge the training data. Thirdly, we fit a set of pre-defined classification models for each classification problem while optimizing their hyperparameters using grid search. The goal is to create a meta-dataset such that each row denotes a multilabel instance describing a specific problem. The features of these meta-instances denote the statistical properties of the generated datasets, while the labels encode the grid search results as binary vectors such that best-performing models are positively labeled. Finally, we tackle the model selection problem with several multilabel classifiers, including a Convolutional Neural Network designed to handle tabular data. The simulation results show that our meta-learning approach can correctly predict an optimal model for 91% of the synthetic datasets and for 87% of the real-world datasets. Furthermore, we noticed that most meta-classifiers produced better results when using our meta-features. Overall, our proposal differs from other meta-learning approaches since it tackles the algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning problems in a single step. Toward the end, we perform a feature importance analysis to determine which statistical features drive the model selection mechanism.
Sparse modelling or model selection with categorical data is challenging even for a moderate number of variables, because one parameter is roughly needed to encode one category or level. The Group Lasso is a well known efficient algorithm for selection continuous or categorical variables, but all estimates related to a selected factor usually differ. Therefore, a fitted model may not be sparse, which makes the model interpretation difficult. To obtain a sparse solution of the Group Lasso we propose the following two-step procedure: first, we reduce data dimensionality using the Group Lasso; then to choose the final model we use an information criterion on a small family of models prepared by clustering levels of individual factors. We investigate selection correctness of the algorithm in a sparse high-dimensional scenario. We also test our method on synthetic as well as real datasets and show that it performs better than the state of the art algorithms with respect to the prediction accuracy or model dimension.
In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection and evaluation are strictly separated endeavors, splitting the sample at hand into a training, validation, and evaluation set, and only compute a single confidence interval for the prediction performance of the final selected model. We however propose an algorithm how to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models that have been selected based on their prediction performances in the evaluation set by interpreting the selection problem as a simultaneous inference problem. We use bootstrap tilting and a maxT-type multiplicity correction. The approach is universally applicable for any combination of prediction models, any model selection strategy, and any prediction performance measure that accepts weights. We conducted various simulation experiments which show that our proposed approach yields lower confidence bounds that are at least comparably good as bounds from standard approaches, and that reliably reach the nominal coverage probability. In addition, especially when sample size is small, our proposed approach yields better performing prediction models than the default selection of only one model for evaluation does.
We present 360-MLC, a self-training method based on multi-view layout consistency for finetuning monocular room-layout models using unlabeled 360-images only. This can be valuable in practical scenarios where a pre-trained model needs to be adapted to a new data domain without using any ground truth annotations. Our simple yet effective assumption is that multiple layout estimations in the same scene must define a consistent geometry regardless of their camera positions. Based on this idea, we leverage a pre-trained model to project estimated layout boundaries from several camera views into the 3D world coordinate. Then, we re-project them back to the spherical coordinate and build a probability function, from which we sample the pseudo-labels for self-training. To handle unconfident pseudo-labels, we evaluate the variance in the re-projected boundaries as an uncertainty value to weight each pseudo-label in our loss function during training. In addition, since ground truth annotations are not available during training nor in testing, we leverage the entropy information in multiple layout estimations as a quantitative metric to measure the geometry consistency of the scene, allowing us to evaluate any layout estimator for hyper-parameter tuning, including model selection without ground truth annotations. Experimental results show that our solution achieves favorable performance against state-of-the-art methods when self-training from three publicly available source datasets to a unique, newly labeled dataset consisting of multi-view of the same scenes.
High model performance, on average, can hide that models may systematically underperform on subgroups of the data. We consider the tabular setting, which surfaces the unique issue of outcome heterogeneity - this is prevalent in areas such as healthcare, where patients with similar features can have different outcomes, thus making reliable predictions challenging. To tackle this, we propose Data-IQ, a framework to systematically stratify examples into subgroups with respect to their outcomes. We do this by analyzing the behavior of individual examples during training, based on their predictive confidence and, importantly, the aleatoric (data) uncertainty. Capturing the aleatoric uncertainty permits a principled characterization and then subsequent stratification of data examples into three distinct subgroups (Easy, Ambiguous, Hard). We experimentally demonstrate the benefits of Data-IQ on four real-world medical datasets. We show that Data-IQ's characterization of examples is most robust to variation across similarly performant (yet different) models, compared to baselines. Since Data-IQ can be used with any ML model (including neural networks, gradient boosting etc.), this property ensures consistency of data characterization, while allowing flexible model selection. Taking this a step further, we demonstrate that the subgroups enable us to construct new approaches to both feature acquisition and dataset selection. Furthermore, we highlight how the subgroups can inform reliable model usage, noting the significant impact of the Ambiguous subgroup on model generalization.
Accurate wind turbine power curve models, which translate ambient conditions into turbine power output, are crucial for wind energy to scale and fulfill its proposed role in the global energy transition. While machine learning (ML) methods have shown significant advantages over parametric, physics-informed approaches, they are often criticised for being opaque 'black boxes', which hinders their application in practice. We apply Shapley values, a popular explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) method, and the latest findings from XAI for regression models, to uncover the strategies ML models have learned from operational wind turbine data. Our findings reveal that the trend towards ever larger model architectures, driven by a focus on test set performance, can result in physically implausible model strategies. Therefore, we call for a more prominent role of XAI methods in model selection. Moreover, we propose a practical approach to utilize explanations for root cause analysis in the context of wind turbine performance monitoring. This can help to reduce downtime and increase the utilization of turbines in the field.