The classical temporal point process (TPP) constructs an intensity function by taking the occurrence times into account. Nevertheless, occurrence time may not be the only relevant factor, other contextual data, termed covariates, may also impact the event evolution. Incorporating such covariates into the model is beneficial, while distinguishing their relevance to the event dynamics is of great practical significance. In this work, we propose a Transformer-based covariate temporal point process (TransFeat-TPP) model to improve the interpretability of deep covariate-TPPs while maintaining powerful expressiveness. TransFeat-TPP can effectively model complex relationships between events and covariates, and provide enhanced interpretability by discerning the importance of various covariates. Experimental results on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and consistently interpretable feature importance when compared to existing deep covariate-TPPs.
Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a fundamental computational tool, appearing in problems that range from computational chemistry to health analytics, with a particular interest due to its starring role in Gaussian process regression. However, full KRR solvers are challenging to scale to large datasets: both direct (i.e., Cholesky decomposition) and iterative methods (i.e., PCG) incur prohibitive computational and storage costs. The standard approach to scale KRR to large datasets chooses a set of inducing points and solves an approximate version of the problem, inducing points KRR. However, the resulting solution tends to have worse predictive performance than the full KRR solution. In this work, we introduce a new solver, ASkotch, for full KRR that provides better solutions faster than state-of-the-art solvers for full and inducing points KRR. ASkotch is a scalable, accelerated, iterative method for full KRR that provably obtains linear convergence. Under appropriate conditions, we show that ASkotch obtains condition-number-free linear convergence. This convergence analysis rests on the theory of ridge leverage scores and determinantal point processes. ASkotch outperforms state-of-the-art KRR solvers on a testbed of 23 large-scale KRR regression and classification tasks derived from a wide range of application domains, demonstrating the superiority of full KRR over inducing points KRR. Our work opens up the possibility of as-yet-unimagined applications of full KRR across a number of disciplines.
A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the cumulative intensity function) in the likelihood resulting in doubly intractable posterior distribution. Here, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process without reliance on large data augmentation or approximations of the likelihood function. We propose to jointly model the intensity and the cumulative intensity function as a transformed Gaussian process, allowing us to directly bypass the need of approximating the cumulative intensity function in the likelihood. We propose an exact MCMC sampler for posterior inference and evaluate its performance on simulated data. We demonstrate the utility of our method in three real-world scenarios including temporal and spatial event data, as well as aggregated time count data collected at multiple resolutions. Finally, we discuss extensions of our proposed method to other point processes.
The key to personalized recommendation is to predict a personalized ranking on a catalog of items by modeling the user's preferences. There are many personalized ranking approaches for item recommendation from implicit feedback like Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) and listwise ranking. Despite these methods have shown performance benefits, there are still limitations affecting recommendation performance. First, none of them directly optimize ranking of sets, causing inadequate exploitation of correlations among multiple items. Second, the diversity aspect of recommendations is insufficiently addressed compared to relevance. In this work, we present a new optimization criterion LkP based on set probability comparison for personalized ranking that moves beyond traditional ranking-based methods. It formalizes set-level relevance and diversity ranking comparisons through a Determinantal Point Process (DPP) kernel decomposition. To confer ranking interpretability to the DPP set probabilities and prioritize the practicality of LkP, we condition the standard DPP on the cardinality k of the DPP-distributed set, known as k-DPP, a less-explored extension of DPP. The generic stochastic gradient descent based technique can be directly applied to optimizing models that employ LkP. We implement LkP in the context of both Matrix Factorization (MF) and neural networks approaches, on three real-world datasets, obtaining improved relevance and diversity performances. LkP is broadly applicable, and when applied to existing recommendation models it also yields strong performance improvements, suggesting that LkP holds significant value to the field of recommender systems.
Accurately forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is crucial for finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare applications. Event timing and labels are typically modeled using Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP), with evaluations often focused on next-event prediction quality. While some studies have extended evaluations to a fixed number of future events, we demonstrate that this approach leads to inaccuracies in handling false positives and false negatives. To address these issues, we propose a novel evaluation method inspired by object detection techniques from computer vision. Specifically, we introduce Temporal mean Average Precision (T-mAP), a temporal variant of mAP, which overcomes the limitations of existing long-horizon evaluation metrics. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that models with strong next-event prediction accuracy can yield poor long-horizon forecasts and vice versa, indicating that specialized methods are needed for each task. To support further research, we release HoTPP, the first benchmark designed explicitly for evaluating long-horizon MTPP predictions. HoTPP includes large-scale datasets with up to 43 million events and provides optimized procedures for both autoregressive and parallel inference, paving the way for future advancements in the field.
We consider the problem of multi-objective optimization (MOO) of expensive black-box functions with the goal of discovering high-quality and diverse Pareto fronts where we are allowed to evaluate a batch of inputs. This problem arises in many real-world applications including penicillin production where diversity of solutions is critical. We solve this problem in the framework of Bayesian optimization (BO) and propose a novel approach referred to as Pareto front-Diverse Batch Multi-Objective BO (PDBO). PDBO tackles two important challenges: 1) How to automatically select the best acquisition function in each BO iteration, and 2) How to select a diverse batch of inputs by considering multiple objectives. We propose principled solutions to address these two challenges. First, PDBO employs a multi-armed bandit approach to select one acquisition function from a given library. We solve a cheap MOO problem by assigning the selected acquisition function for each expensive objective function to obtain a candidate set of inputs for evaluation. Second, it utilizes Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) to choose a Pareto-front-diverse batch of inputs for evaluation from the candidate set obtained from the first step. The key parameters for the methods behind these two steps are updated after each round of function evaluations. Experiments on multiple MOO benchmarks demonstrate that PDBO outperforms prior methods in terms of both the quality and diversity of Pareto solutions.
Our goal is to $\textit{efficiently}$ discover a compact set of temporal logic rules to explain irregular events of interest. We introduce a neural-symbolic rule induction framework within the temporal point process model. The negative log-likelihood is the loss that guides the learning, where the explanatory logic rules and their weights are learned end-to-end in a $\textit{differentiable}$ way. Specifically, predicates and logic rules are represented as $\textit{vector embeddings}$, where the predicate embeddings are fixed and the rule embeddings are trained via gradient descent to obtain the most appropriate compositional representations of the predicate embeddings. To make the rule learning process more efficient and flexible, we adopt a $\textit{sequential covering algorithm}$, which progressively adds rules to the model and removes the event sequences that have been explained until all event sequences have been covered. All the found rules will be fed back to the models for a final rule embedding and weight refinement. Our approach showcases notable efficiency and accuracy across synthetic and real datasets, surpassing state-of-the-art baselines by a wide margin in terms of efficiency.
A central problem in quantum mechanics involves solving the Electronic Schrodinger Equation for a molecule or material. The Variational Monte Carlo approach to this problem approximates a particular variational objective via sampling, and then optimizes this approximated objective over a chosen parameterized family of wavefunctions, known as the ansatz. Recently neural networks have been used as the ansatz, with accompanying success. However, sampling from such wavefunctions has required the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, which is inherently inefficient. In this work, we propose a solution to this problem via an ansatz which is cheap to sample from, yet satisfies the requisite quantum mechanical properties. We prove that a normalizing flow using the following two essential ingredients satisfies our requirements: (a) a base distribution which is constructed from Determinantal Point Processes; (b) flow layers which are equivariant to a particular subgroup of the permutation group. We then show how to construct both continuous and discrete normalizing flows which satisfy the requisite equivariance. We further demonstrate the manner in which the non-smooth nature ("cusps") of the wavefunction may be captured, and how the framework may be generalized to provide induction across multiple molecules. The resulting theoretical framework entails an efficient approach to solving the Electronic Schrodinger Equation.
Recommender systems are an important part of the modern human experience whose influence ranges from the food we eat to the news we read. Yet, there is still debate as to what extent recommendation platforms are aligned with the user goals. A core issue fueling this debate is the challenge of inferring a user utility based on engagement signals such as likes, shares, watch time etc., which are the primary metric used by platforms to optimize content. This is because users utility-driven decision-processes (which we refer to as System-2), e.g., reading news that are relevant for them, are often confounded by their impulsive decision-processes (which we refer to as System-1), e.g., spend time on click-bait news. As a result, it is difficult to infer whether an observed engagement is utility-driven or impulse-driven. In this paper we explore a new approach to recommender systems where we infer user utility based on their return probability to the platform rather than engagement signals. Our intuition is that users tend to return to a platform in the long run if it creates utility for them, while pure engagement-driven interactions that do not add utility, may affect user return in the short term but will not have a lasting effect. We propose a generative model in which past content interactions impact the arrival rates of users based on a self-exciting Hawkes process. These arrival rates to the platform are a combination of both System-1 and System-2 decision processes. The System-2 arrival intensity depends on the utility and has a long lasting effect, while the System-1 intensity depends on the instantaneous gratification and tends to vanish rapidly. We show analytically that given samples it is possible to disentangle System-1 and System-2 and allow content optimization based on user utility. We conduct experiments on synthetic data to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.
Temporal point process (TPP) is an important tool for modeling and predicting irregularly timed events across various domains. Recently, the recurrent neural network (RNN)-based TPPs have shown practical advantages over traditional parametric TPP models. However, in the current literature, it remains nascent in understanding neural TPPs from theoretical viewpoints. In this paper, we establish the excess risk bounds of RNN-TPPs under many well-known TPP settings. We especially show that an RNN-TPP with no more than four layers can achieve vanishing generalization errors. Our technical contributions include the characterization of the complexity of the multi-layer RNN class, the construction of $\tanh$ neural networks for approximating dynamic event intensity functions, and the truncation technique for alleviating the issue of unbounded event sequences. Our results bridge the gap between TPP's application and neural network theory.
Spatiotemporal processes are a fundamental tool for modeling dynamics across various domains, from heat propagation in materials to oceanic and atmospheric flows. However, currently available neural network-based modeling approaches fall short when faced with data collected randomly over time and space, as is often the case with sensor networks in real-world applications like crowdsourced earthquake detection or pollution monitoring. In response, we developed a new spatiotemporal method that effectively handles such randomly sampled data. Our model integrates techniques from amortized variational inference, neural differential equations, neural point processes, and implicit neural representations to predict both the dynamics of the system and the probabilistic locations and timings of future observations. It outperforms existing methods on challenging spatiotemporal datasets by offering substantial improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency, making it a useful tool for modeling and understanding complex dynamical systems observed under realistic, unconstrained conditions.
Recently, Cronie et al. (2024) introduced the notion of cross-validation for point processes and a new statistical methodology called Point Process Learning (PPL). In PPL one splits a point process/pattern into a training and a validation set, and then predicts the latter from the former through a parametrised Papangelou conditional intensity. The model parameters are estimated by minimizing a point process prediction error; this notion was introduced as the second building block of PPL. It was shown that PPL outperforms the state-of-the-art in both kernel intensity estimation and estimation of the parameters of the Gibbs hard-core process. In the latter case, the state-of-the-art was represented by pseudolikelihood estimation. In this paper we study PPL in relation to Takacs-Fiksel estimation, of which pseudolikelihood is a special case. We show that Takacs-Fiksel estimation is a special case of PPL in the sense that PPL with a specific loss function asymptotically reduces to Takacs-Fiksel estimation if we let the cross-validation regime tend to leave-one-out cross-validation. Moreover, PPL involves a certain type of hyperparameter given by a weight function which ensures that the prediction errors have expectation zero if and only if we have the correct parametrisation. We show that the weight function takes an explicit but intractable form for general Gibbs models. Consequently, we propose different approaches to estimate the weight function in practice. In order to assess how the general PPL setup performs in relation to its special case Takacs-Fiksel estimation, we conduct a simulation study where we find that for common Gibbs models we can find loss functions and hyperparameters so that PPL typically outperforms Takacs-Fiksel estimation significantly in terms of mean square error. Here, the hyperparameters are the cross-validation parameters and the weight function estimate.
Often we consider machine learning models or statistical analysis methods which we endeavour to alter, by introducing a randomized mechanism, to make the model conform to a differential privacy constraint. However, certain models can often be implicitly differentially private or require significantly fewer alterations. In this work, we discuss Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) which are dispersion models that balance recommendations based on both the popularity and the diversity of the content. We introduce DPPs, derive and discuss the alternations required for them to satisfy epsilon-Differential Privacy and provide an analysis of their sensitivity. We conclude by proposing simple alternatives to DPPs which would make them more efficient with respect to their privacy-utility trade-off.
Temporal Point Processes (TPPs), especially Hawkes Process are commonly used for modeling asynchronous event sequences data such as financial transactions and user behaviors in social networks. Due to the strong fitting ability of neural networks, various neural Temporal Point Processes are proposed, among which the Neural Hawkes Processes based on self-attention such as Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) achieve distinct performance improvement. Although the THP has gained increasing studies, it still suffers from the {sequence prediction issue}, i.e., training on history sequences and inferencing about the future, which is a prevalent paradigm in realistic sequence analysis tasks. What's more, conventional THP and its variants simply adopt initial sinusoid embedding in transformers, which shows performance sensitivity to temporal change or noise in sequence data analysis by our empirical study. To deal with the problems, we propose a new Rotary Position Embedding-based THP (RoTHP) architecture in this paper. Notably, we show the translation invariance property and {sequence prediction flexibility} of our RoTHP induced by the {relative time embeddings} when coupled with Hawkes process theoretically. Furthermore, we demonstrate empirically that our RoTHP can be better generalized in sequence data scenarios with timestamp translations and in sequence prediction tasks.
Despite being a key bottleneck in many machine learning tasks, the cost of solving large linear systems has proven challenging to quantify due to problem-dependent quantities such as condition numbers. To tackle this, we consider a fine-grained notion of complexity for solving linear systems, which is motivated by applications where the data exhibits low-dimensional structure, including spiked covariance models and kernel machines, and when the linear system is explicitly regularized, such as ridge regression. Concretely, let $\kappa_\ell$ be the ratio between the $\ell$th largest and the smallest singular value of $n\times n$ matrix $A$. We give a stochastic algorithm based on the Sketch-and-Project paradigm, that solves the linear system $Ax = b$, that is, finds $\bar{x}$ such that $\|A\bar{x} - b\| \le \epsilon \|b\|$, in time $\bar O(\kappa_\ell\cdot n^2\log 1/\epsilon)$, for any $\ell = O(n^{0.729})$. This is a direct improvement over preconditioned conjugate gradient, and it provides a stronger separation between stochastic linear solvers and algorithms accessing $A$ only through matrix-vector products. Our main technical contribution is the new analysis of the first and second moments of the random projection matrix that arises in Sketch-and-Project.
With the ever-increasing number of connected vehicles in the fifth-generation mobile communication networks (5G) and beyond 5G (B5G), ensuring the reliability and high-speed demand of cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) communication in scenarios where vehicles are moving at high speeds poses a significant challenge.Recently, multi-connectivity technology has become a promising network access paradigm for improving network performance and reliability for C-V2X in the 5G and B5G era. To this end, this paper proposes an analytical framework for the performance of downlink in multi-connectivity C-V2X networks. Specifically, by modeling the vehicles and base stations as one-dimensional Poisson point processes, we first derive and analyze the joint distance distribution of multi-connectivity. Then through leveraging the tools of stochastic geometry, the coverage probability and spectral efficiency are obtained based on the previous results for general multi-connectivity cases in C-V2X. Additionally, we evaluate the effect of path loss exponent and the density of downlink base station on system performance indicators. We demonstrate through extensive Monte Carlo simulations that multi-connectivity technology can effectively enhance network performance in C-V2X. Our findings have important implications for the research and application of multi-connectivity C-V2X in the 5G and B5G era.
We introduce a novel statistical framework for the analysis of replicated point processes that allows for the study of point pattern variability at a population level. By treating point process realizations as random measures, we adopt a functional analysis perspective and propose a form of functional Principal Component Analysis (fPCA) for point processes. The originality of our method is to base our analysis on the cumulative mass functions of the random measures which gives us a direct and interpretable analysis. Key theoretical contributions include establishing a Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansion for the random measures and a Mercer Theorem for covariance measures. We establish convergence in a strong sense, and introduce the concept of principal measures, which can be seen as latent processes governing the dynamics of the observed point patterns. We propose an easy-to-implement estimation strategy of eigenelements for which parametric rates are achieved. We fully characterize the solutions of our approach to Poisson and Hawkes processes and validate our methodology via simulations and diverse applications in seismology, single-cell biology and neurosiences, demonstrating its versatility and effectiveness. Our method is implemented in the pppca R-package.
Electronic Health Records (EHR) can be represented as temporal sequences that record the events (medical visits) from patients. Neural temporal point process (NTPP) has achieved great success in modeling event sequences that occur in continuous time space. However, due to the black-box nature of neural networks, existing NTPP models fall short in explaining the dependencies between different event types. In this paper, inspired by word2vec and Hawkes process, we propose an interpretable framework inf2vec for event sequence modelling, where the event influences are directly parameterized and can be learned end-to-end. In the experiment, we demonstrate the superiority of our model on event prediction as well as type-type influences learning.
Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activities play a vital role in market consolidation and restructuring. For acquiring companies, M&A serves as a key investment strategy, with one primary goal being to attain complementarities that enhance market power in competitive industries. In addition to intrinsic factors, a M&A behavior of a firm is influenced by the M&A activities of its peers, a phenomenon known as the "peer effect." However, existing research often fails to capture the rich interdependencies among M&A events within industry networks. An effective M&A predictive model should offer deal-level predictions without requiring ad-hoc feature engineering or data rebalancing. Such a model would predict the M&A behaviors of rival firms and provide specific recommendations for both bidder and target firms. However, most current models only predict one side of an M&A deal, lack firm-specific recommendations, and rely on arbitrary time intervals that impair predictive accuracy. Additionally, due to the sparsity of M&A events, existing models require data rebalancing, which introduces bias and limits their real-world applicability. To address these challenges, we propose a Temporal Dynamic Industry Network (TDIN) model, leveraging temporal point processes and deep learning to capture complex M&A interdependencies without ad-hoc data adjustments. The temporal point process framework inherently models event sparsity, eliminating the need for data rebalancing. Empirical evaluations on M&A data from January 1997 to December 2020 validate the effectiveness of our approach in predicting M&A events and offering actionable, deal-level recommendations.
In applications such as biomedical studies, epidemiology, and social sciences, recurrent events often co-occur with longitudinal measurements and a terminal event, such as death. Therefore, jointly modeling longitudinal measurements, recurrent events, and survival data while accounting for their dependencies is critical. While joint models for the three components exist in statistical literature, many of these approaches are limited by heavy parametric assumptions and scalability issues. Recently, incorporating deep learning techniques into joint modeling has shown promising results. However, current methods only address joint modeling of longitudinal measurements at regularly-spaced observation times and survival events, neglecting recurrent events. In this paper, we develop TransformerLSR, a flexible transformer-based deep modeling and inference framework to jointly model all three components simultaneously. TransformerLSR integrates deep temporal point processes into the joint modeling framework, treating recurrent and terminal events as two competing processes dependent on past longitudinal measurements and recurrent event times. Additionally, TransformerLSR introduces a novel trajectory representation and model architecture to potentially incorporate a priori knowledge of known latent structures among concurrent longitudinal variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness and necessity of TransformerLSR through simulation studies and analyzing a real-world medical dataset on patients after kidney transplantation.