The demand for open and trustworthy AI models points towards widespread publishing of model weights. Consumers of these model weights must be able to act accordingly with the information provided. That said, one of the simplest AI classification models, Logistic Regression (LR), has an unwieldy interpretation of its model weights, with greater difficulties when extending LR to generalised additive models. In this work, we show via a User Study that skilled participants are unable to reliably reproduce the action of small LR models given the trained parameters. As an antidote to this, we define Linearised Additive Models (LAMs), an optimal piecewise linear approximation that augments any trained additive model equipped with a sigmoid link function, requiring no retraining. We argue that LAMs are more interpretable than logistic models -- survey participants are shown to solve model reasoning tasks with LAMs much more accurately than with LR given the same information. Furthermore, we show that LAMs do not suffer from large performance penalties in terms of ROC-AUC and calibration with respect to their logistic counterparts on a broad suite of public financial modelling data.
A wide range of machine learning algorithms iteratively add data to the training sample. Examples include semi-supervised learning, active learning, multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization. We embed this kind of data addition into decision theory by framing data selection as a decision problem. This paves the way for finding Bayes-optimal selections of data. For the illustrative case of self-training in semi-supervised learning, we derive the respective Bayes criterion. We further show that deploying this criterion mitigates the issue of confirmation bias by empirically assessing our method for generalized linear models, semi-parametric generalized additive models, and Bayesian neural networks on simulated and real-world data.
Additive models can be used for interpretable machine learning for their clarity and simplicity. However, In the classical models for high-order data, the vectorization operation disrupts the data structure, which may lead to degenerated accuracy and increased computational complexity. To deal with these problems, we propose the tensor polynomial addition model (TPAM). It retains the multidimensional structure information of high-order inputs with tensor representation. The model parameter compression is achieved using a hierarchical and low-order symmetric tensor approximation. In this way, complex high-order feature interactions can be captured with fewer parameters. Moreover, The TPAM preserves the inherent interpretability of additive models, facilitating transparent decision-making and the extraction of meaningful feature values. Additionally, leveraging TPAM's transparency and ability to handle higher-order features, it is used as a post-processing module for other interpretation models by introducing two variants for class activation maps. Experimental results on a series of datasets demonstrate that TPAM can enhance accuracy by up to 30\%, and compression rate by up to 5 times, while maintaining a good interpretability.
To increase the transparency of modern computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems for assessing the malignancy of lung nodules, an interpretable model based on applying the generalized additive models and the concept-based learning is proposed. The model detects a set of clinically significant attributes in addition to the final malignancy regression score and learns the association between the lung nodule attributes and a final diagnosis decision as well as their contributions into the decision. The proposed concept-based learning framework provides human-readable explanations in terms of different concepts (numerical and categorical), their values, and their contribution to the final prediction. Numerical experiments with the LIDC-IDRI dataset demonstrate that the diagnosis results obtained using the proposed model, which explicitly explores internal relationships, are in line with similar patterns observed in clinical practice. Additionally, the proposed model shows the competitive classification and the nodule attribute scoring performance, highlighting its potential for effective decision-making in the lung nodule diagnosis.
The primary challenge in Federated Learning (FL) is to model non-IID distributions across clients, whose fine-grained structure is important to improve knowledge sharing. For example, some knowledge is globally shared across all clients, some is only transferable within a subgroup of clients, and some are client-specific. To capture and exploit this structure, we train models organized in a multi-level structure, called ``Multi-level Additive Models (MAM)'', for better knowledge-sharing across heterogeneous clients and their personalization. In federated MAM (FeMAM), each client is assigned to at most one model per level and its personalized prediction sums up the outputs of models assigned to it across all levels. For the top level, FeMAM trains one global model shared by all clients as FedAvg. For every mid-level, it learns multiple models each assigned to a subgroup of clients, as clustered FL. Every bottom-level model is trained for one client only. In the training objective, each model aims to minimize the residual of the additive predictions by the other models assigned to each client. To approximate the arbitrary structure of non-IID across clients, FeMAM introduces more flexibility and adaptivity to FL by incrementally adding new models to the prediction of each client and reassigning another if necessary, automatically optimizing the knowledge-sharing structure. Extensive experiments show that FeMAM surpasses existing clustered FL and personalized FL methods in various non-IID settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/shutong043/FeMAM.
Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, planning and building energy storage systems, and energy trading. While numerous models effectively predict short-term (hours to a few days) hourly load, mid-term forecasting solutions remain scarce. In mid-term load forecasting, capturing the multifaceted characteristics of load, including daily, weekly and annual seasonal patterns, as well as autoregressive effects, weather and holiday impacts, and socio-economic non-stationarities, presents significant modeling challenges. To address these challenges, we propose a novel forecasting method using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) built from interpretable P-splines that is enhanced with autoregressive post-processing. This model incorporates smoothed temperatures, Error-Trend-Seasonal (ETS) modeled and persistently forecasted non-stationary socio-economic states, a nuanced representation of effects from vacation periods, fixed date and weekday holidays, and seasonal information as inputs. The proposed model is evaluated using load data from 24 European countries over more than 9 years (2015-2024). This analysis demonstrates that the model not only has significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods but also offers valuable insights into the influence of individual components on predicted load, given its full interpretability. Achieving performance akin to day-ahead Transmission System Operator (TSO) forecasts, with computation times of just a few seconds for several years of hourly data, underscores the potential of the model for practical application in the power system industry.
We address the critical challenge of applying feature attribution methods to the transformer architecture, which dominates current applications in natural language processing and beyond. Traditional attribution methods to explainable AI (XAI) explicitly or implicitly rely on linear or additive surrogate models to quantify the impact of input features on a model's output. In this work, we formally prove an alarming incompatibility: transformers are structurally incapable of representing linear or additive surrogate models used for feature attribution, undermining the grounding of these conventional explanation methodologies. To address this discrepancy, we introduce the Softmax-Linked Additive Log Odds Model (SLALOM), a novel surrogate model specifically designed to align with the transformer framework. SLALOM demonstrates the capacity to deliver a range of insightful explanations with both synthetic and real-world datasets. We highlight SLALOM's unique efficiency-quality curve by showing that SLALOM can produce explanations with substantially higher fidelity than competing surrogate models or provide explanations of comparable quality at a fraction of their computational costs. We release code for SLALOM as an open-source project online at https://github.com/tleemann/slalom_explanations.
Understanding how images influence the world, interpreting which effects their semantics have on various quantities and exploring the reasons behind changes in image-based predictions are highly difficult yet extremely interesting problems. By adopting a holistic modeling approach utilizing Neural Additive Models in combination with Diffusion Autoencoders, we can effectively identify the latent hidden semantics of image effects and achieve full intelligibility of additional tabular effects. Our approach offers a high degree of flexibility, empowering us to comprehensively explore the impact of various image characteristics. We demonstrate that the proposed method can precisely identify complex image effects in an ablation study. To further showcase the practical applicability of our proposed model, we conduct a case study in which we investigate how the distinctive features and attributes captured within host images exert influence on the pricing of Airbnb rentals.
The use of automatic short answer grading (ASAG) models may help alleviate the time burden of grading while encouraging educators to frequently incorporate open-ended items in their curriculum. However, current state-of-the-art ASAG models are large neural networks (NN) often described as "black box", providing no explanation for which characteristics of an input are important for the produced output. This inexplicable nature can be frustrating to teachers and students when trying to interpret, or learn from an automatically-generated grade. To create a powerful yet intelligible ASAG model, we experiment with a type of model called a Neural Additive Model that combines the performance of a NN with the explainability of an additive model. We use a Knowledge Integration (KI) framework from the learning sciences to guide feature engineering to create inputs that reflect whether a student includes certain ideas in their response. We hypothesize that indicating the inclusion (or exclusion) of predefined ideas as features will be sufficient for the NAM to have good predictive power and interpretability, as this may guide a human scorer using a KI rubric. We compare the performance of the NAM with another explainable model, logistic regression, using the same features, and to a non-explainable neural model, DeBERTa, that does not require feature engineering.
Symbolic regression has excelled in uncovering equations from physics, chemistry, biology, and related disciplines. However, its effectiveness becomes less certain when applied to experimental data lacking inherent closed-form expressions. Empirically derived relationships, such as entire stress-strain curves, may defy concise closed-form representation, compelling us to explore more adaptive modeling approaches that balance flexibility with interpretability. In our pursuit, we turn to Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), a widely used class of models known for their versatility across various domains. Although GAMs can capture non-linear relationships between variables and targets, they cannot capture intricate feature interactions. In this work, we investigate both of these challenges and propose a novel class of models, Shape Arithmetic Expressions (SHAREs), that fuses GAM's flexible shape functions with the complex feature interactions found in mathematical expressions. SHAREs also provide a unifying framework for both of these approaches. We also design a set of rules for constructing SHAREs that guarantee transparency of the found expressions beyond the standard constraints based on the model's size.
Demand forecasts are the crucial basis for numerous business decisions, ranging from inventory management to strategic facility planning. While machine learning (ML) approaches offer accuracy gains, their interpretability and acceptance are notoriously lacking. Addressing this dilemma, we introduce Hierarchical Neural Additive Models for time series (HNAM). HNAM expands upon Neural Additive Models (NAM) by introducing a time-series specific additive model with a level and interacting covariate components. Covariate interactions are only allowed according to a user-specified interaction hierarchy. For example, weekday effects may be estimated independently of other covariates, whereas a holiday effect may depend on the weekday and an additional promotion may depend on both former covariates that are lower in the interaction hierarchy. Thereby, HNAM yields an intuitive forecasting interface in which analysts can observe the contribution for each known covariate. We evaluate the proposed approach and benchmark its performance against other state-of-the-art machine learning and statistical models extensively on real-world retail data. The results reveal that HNAM offers competitive prediction performance whilst providing plausible explanations.
Recent advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have led to remarkable achievements in robot locomotion capabilities. However, the complexity and ``black-box'' nature of neural network-based RL policies hinder their interpretability and broader acceptance, particularly in applications demanding high levels of safety and reliability. This paper introduces a novel approach to distill neural RL policies into more interpretable forms using Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs) and Symbolic Regression. By leveraging the inherent interpretability of generalized additive models, decision trees, and analytical expressions, we transform opaque neural network policies into more transparent ``glass-box'' models. We train expert neural network policies using RL and subsequently distill them into (i) GBMs, (ii) EBMs, and (iii) symbolic policies. To address the inherent distribution shift challenge of behavioral cloning, we propose to use the Dataset Aggregation (DAgger) algorithm with a curriculum of episode-dependent alternation of actions between expert and distilled policies, to enable efficient distillation of feedback control policies. We evaluate our approach on various robot locomotion gaits -- walking, trotting, bounding, and pacing -- and study the importance of different observations in joint actions for distilled policies using various methods. We train neural expert policies for 205 hours of simulated experience and distill interpretable policies with only 10 minutes of simulated interaction for each gait using the proposed method.
Scoring rules are an established way of comparing predictive performances across model classes. In the context of survival analysis, they require adaptation in order to accommodate censoring. This work investigates using scoring rules for model training rather than evaluation. Doing so, we establish a general framework for training survival models that is model agnostic and can learn event time distributions parametrically or non-parametrically. In addition, our framework is not restricted to any specific scoring rule. While we focus on neural network-based implementations, we also provide proof-of-concept implementations using gradient boosting, generalized additive models, and trees. Empirical comparisons on synthetic and real-world data indicate that scoring rules can be successfully incorporated into model training and yield competitive predictive performance with established time-to-event models.
Feature selection is a critical component in predictive analytics that significantly affects the prediction accuracy and interpretability of models. Intrinsic methods for feature selection are built directly into model learning, providing a fast and attractive option for large amounts of data. Machine learning algorithms, such as penalized regression models (e.g., lasso) are the most common choice when it comes to in-built feature selection. However, they fail to capture non-linear relationships, which ultimately affects their ability to predict outcomes in intricate datasets. In this paper, we propose IGANN Sparse, a novel machine learning model from the family of generalized additive models, which promotes sparsity through a non-linear feature selection process during training. This ensures interpretability through improved model sparsity without sacrificing predictive performance. Moreover, IGANN Sparse serves as an exploratory tool for information systems researchers to unveil important non-linear relationships in domains that are characterized by complex patterns. Our ongoing research is directed at a thorough evaluation of the IGANN Sparse model, including user studies that allow to assess how well users of the model can benefit from the reduced number of features. This will allow for a deeper understanding of the interactions between linear vs. non-linear modeling, number of selected features, and predictive performance.
Recent years have seen important advances in the building of interpretable models, machine learning models that are designed to be easily understood by humans. In this work, we show that large language models (LLMs) are remarkably good at working with interpretable models, too. In particular, we show that LLMs can describe, interpret, and debug Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Combining the flexibility of LLMs with the breadth of statistical patterns accurately described by GAMs enables dataset summarization, question answering, and model critique. LLMs can also improve the interaction between domain experts and interpretable models, and generate hypotheses about the underlying phenomenon. We release \url{https://github.com/interpretml/TalkToEBM} as an open-source LLM-GAM interface.
We present FAST, an optimization framework for fast additive segmentation. FAST segments piecewise constant shape functions for each feature in a dataset to produce transparent additive models. The framework leverages a novel optimization procedure to fit these models $\sim$2 orders of magnitude faster than existing state-of-the-art methods, such as explainable boosting machines \citep{nori2019interpretml}. We also develop new feature selection algorithms in the FAST framework to fit parsimonious models that perform well. Through experiments and case studies, we show that FAST improves the computational efficiency and interpretability of additive models.
Deep neural networks have revolutionized many fields, but their black-box nature also occasionally prevents their wider adoption in fields such as healthcare and finance, where interpretable and explainable models are required. The recent development of Neural Additive Models (NAMs) is a significant step in the direction of interpretable deep learning for tabular datasets. In this paper, we propose a new subclass of NAMs that use a single-layer neural network construction of the Gaussian process via random Fourier features, which we call Gaussian Process Neural Additive Models (GP-NAM). GP-NAMs have the advantage of a convex objective function and number of trainable parameters that grows linearly with feature dimensionality. It suffers no loss in performance compared to deeper NAM approaches because GPs are well-suited for learning complex non-parametric univariate functions. We demonstrate the performance of GP-NAM on several tabular datasets, showing that it achieves comparable or better performance in both classification and regression tasks with a large reduction in the number of parameters.
This paper proposes two methods for causal additive models with unobserved variables (CAM-UV). CAM-UV assumes that the causal functions take the form of generalized additive models and that latent confounders are present. First, we propose a method that leverages prior knowledge for efficient causal discovery. Then, we propose an extension of this method for inferring causality in time series data. The original CAM-UV algorithm differs from other existing causal function models in that it does not seek the causal order between observed variables, but rather aims to identify the causes for each observed variable. Therefore, the first proposed method in this paper utilizes prior knowledge, such as understanding that certain variables cannot be causes of specific others. Moreover, by incorporating the prior knowledge that causes precedes their effects in time, we extend the first algorithm to the second method for causal discovery in time series data. We validate the first proposed method by using simulated data to demonstrate that the accuracy of causal discovery increases as more prior knowledge is accumulated. Additionally, we test the second proposed method by comparing it with existing time series causal discovery methods, using both simulated data and real-world data.
We present a boosting-based method to learn additive Structural Equation Models (SEMs) from observational data, with a focus on the theoretical aspects of determining the causal order among variables. We introduce a family of score functions based on arbitrary regression techniques, for which we establish necessary conditions to consistently favor the true causal ordering. Our analysis reveals that boosting with early stopping meets these criteria and thus offers a consistent score function for causal orderings. To address the challenges posed by high-dimensional data sets, we adapt our approach through a component-wise gradient descent in the space of additive SEMs. Our simulation study underlines our theoretical results for lower dimensions and demonstrates that our high-dimensional adaptation is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. In addition, it exhibits robustness with respect to the choice of the hyperparameters making the procedure easy to tune.
This paper proposes a novel identification strategy relying on quasi-instrumental variables (quasi-IVs). A quasi-IV is a relevant but possibly invalid IV because it is not exogenous or not excluded. We show that a variety of models with discrete or continuous endogenous treatment which are usually identified with an IV - quantile models with rank invariance, additive models with homogenous treatment effects, and local average treatment effect models - can be identified under the joint relevance of two complementary quasi-IVs instead. To achieve identification, we complement one excluded but possibly endogenous quasi-IV (e.g., "relevant proxies" such as lagged treatment choice) with one exogenous (conditional on the excluded quasi-IV) but possibly included quasi-IV (e.g., random assignment or exogenous market shocks). Our approach also holds if any of the two quasi-IVs turns out to be a valid IV. In practice, being able to address endogeneity with complementary quasi-IVs instead of IVs is convenient since there are many applications where quasi-IVs are more readily available. Difference-in-differences is a notable example: time is an exogenous quasi-IV while the group assignment acts as a complementary excluded quasi-IV.