Identification with possibly invalid IVs

원문 초록

This paper proposes a novel identification strategy relying on quasi-instrumental variables (quasi-IVs). A quasi-IV is a relevant but possibly invalid IV because it is not exogenous or not excluded. We show that a variety of models with discrete or continuous endogenous treatment which are usually identified with an IV - quantile models with rank invariance, additive models with homogenous treatment effects, and local average treatment effect models - can be identified under the joint relevance of two complementary quasi-IVs instead. To achieve identification, we complement one excluded but possibly endogenous quasi-IV (e.g., "relevant proxies" such as lagged treatment choice) with one exogenous (conditional on the excluded quasi-IV) but possibly included quasi-IV (e.g., random assignment or exogenous market shocks). Our approach also holds if any of the two quasi-IVs turns out to be a valid IV. In practice, being able to address endogeneity with complementary quasi-IVs instead of IVs is convenient since there are many applications where quasi-IVs are more readily available. Difference-in-differences is a notable example: time is an exogenous quasi-IV while the group assignment acts as a complementary excluded quasi-IV.