In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of the environment has the potential to harm learning progress. But even when a model is imperfect, it may still contain information that is useful for planning. In this paper, we investigate the idea of using an imperfect model selectively. The agent should plan in parts of the state space where the model would be helpful but refrain from using the model where it would be harmful. An effective selective planning mechanism requires estimating predictive uncertainty, which arises out of aleatoric uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and model inadequacy, among other sources. Prior work has focused on parameter uncertainty for selective planning. In this work, we emphasize the importance of model inadequacy. We show that heteroscedastic regression can signal predictive uncertainty arising from model inadequacy that is complementary to that which is detected by methods designed for parameter uncertainty, indicating that considering both parameter uncertainty and model inadequacy may be a more promising direction for effective selective planning than either in isolation.
We introduce the technique of adaptive discretization to design an efficient model-based episodic reinforcement learning algorithm in large (potentially continuous) state-action spaces. Our algorithm is based on optimistic one-step value iteration extended to maintain an adaptive discretization of the space. From a theoretical perspective we provide worst-case regret bounds for our algorithm which are competitive compared to the state-of-the-art model-based algorithms. Moreover, our bounds are obtained via a modular proof technique which can potentially extend to incorporate additional structure on the problem. From an implementation standpoint, our algorithm has much lower storage and computational requirements due to maintaining a more efficient partition of the state and action spaces. We illustrate this via experiments on several canonical control problems, which shows that our algorithm empirically performs significantly better than fixed discretization in terms of both faster convergence and lower memory usage. Interestingly, we observe empirically that while fixed-discretization model-based algorithms vastly outperform their model-free counterparts, the two achieve comparable performance with adaptive discretization.
Sequential decision making, commonly formalized as Markov Decision Process (MDP) optimization, is a important challenge in artificial intelligence. Two key approaches to this problem are reinforcement learning (RL) and planning. This paper presents a survey of the integration of both fields, better known as model-based reinforcement learning. Model-based RL has two main steps. First, we systematically cover approaches to dynamics model learning, including challenges like dealing with stochasticity, uncertainty, partial observability, and temporal abstraction. Second, we present a systematic categorization of planning-learning integration, including aspects like: where to start planning, what budgets to allocate to planning and real data collection, how to plan, and how to integrate planning in the learning and acting loop. After these two sections, we also discuss implicit model-based RL as an end-to-end alternative for model learning and planning, and we cover the potential benefits of model-based RL. Along the way, the survey also draws connections to several related RL fields, like hierarchical RL and transfer learning. Altogether, the survey presents a broad conceptual overview of the combination of planning and learning for MDP optimization.
We present two elegant solutions for modeling continuous-time dynamics, in a novel model-based reinforcement learning (RL) framework for semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs), using neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Our models accurately characterize continuous-time dynamics and enable us to develop high-performing policies using a small amount of data. We also develop a model-based approach for optimizing time schedules to reduce interaction rates with the environment while maintaining the near-optimal performance, which is not possible for model-free methods. We experimentally demonstrate the efficacy of our methods across various continuous-time domains.
A major challenge in modern reinforcement learning (RL) is efficient control of dynamical systems from high-dimensional sensory observations. Learning controllable embedding (LCE) is a promising approach that addresses this challenge by embedding the observations into a lower-dimensional latent space, estimating the latent dynamics, and utilizing it to perform control in the latent space. Two important questions in this area are how to learn a representation that is amenable to the control problem at hand, and how to achieve an end-to-end framework for representation learning and control. In this paper, we take a few steps towards addressing these questions. We first formulate a LCE model to learn representations that are suitable to be used by a policy iteration style algorithm in the latent space. We call this model control-aware representation learning (CARL). We derive a loss function for CARL that has close connection to the prediction, consistency, and curvature (PCC) principle for representation learning. We derive three implementations of CARL. In the offline implementation, we replace the locally-linear control algorithm (e.g.,~iLQR) used by the existing LCE methods with a RL algorithm, namely model-based soft actor-critic, and show that it results in significant improvement. In online CARL, we interleave representation learning and control, and demonstrate further gain in performance. Finally, we propose value-guided CARL, a variation in which we optimize a weighted version of the CARL loss function, where the weights depend on the TD-error of the current policy. We evaluate the proposed algorithms by extensive experiments on benchmark tasks and compare them with several LCE baselines.
Continuously learning to solve unseen tasks with limited experience has been extensively pursued in meta-learning and continual learning, but with restricted assumptions such as accessible task distributions, independently and identically distributed tasks, and clear task delineations. However, real-world physical tasks frequently violate these assumptions, resulting in performance degradation. This paper proposes a continual online model-based reinforcement learning approach that does not require pre-training to solve task-agnostic problems with unknown task boundaries. We maintain a mixture of experts to handle nonstationarity, and represent each different type of dynamics with a Gaussian Process to efficiently leverage collected data and expressively model uncertainty. We propose a transition prior to account for the temporal dependencies in streaming data and update the mixture online via sequential variational inference. Our approach reliably handles the task distribution shift by generating new models for never-before-seen dynamics and reusing old models for previously seen dynamics. In experiments, our approach outperforms alternative methods in non-stationary tasks, including classic control with changing dynamics and decision making in different driving scenarios.
The principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty is prevalent throughout sequential decision making problems such as multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). To be successful, an optimistic RL algorithm must over-estimate the true value function (optimism) but not by so much that it is inaccurate (estimation error). In the tabular setting, many state-of-the-art methods produce the required optimism through approaches which are intractable when scaling to deep RL. We re-interpret these scalable optimistic model-based algorithms as solving a tractable noise augmented MDP. This formulation achieves a competitive regret bound: $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}( |\mathcal{S}|H\sqrt{|\mathcal{A}| T } )$ when augmenting using Gaussian noise, where $T$ is the total number of environment steps. We also explore how this trade-off changes in the deep RL setting, where we show empirically that estimation error is significantly more troublesome. However, we also show that if this error is reduced, optimistic model-based RL algorithms can match state-of-the-art performance in continuous control problems.
While the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems is a fundamental building block of model-based reinforcement learning and feedback control, its sample complexity is only understood for systems that either have discrete states and actions or for systems that can be identified from data generated by i.i.d. random inputs. Nonetheless, many interesting dynamical systems have continuous states and actions and can only be identified through a judicious choice of inputs. Motivated by practical settings, we study a class of nonlinear dynamical systems whose state transitions depend linearly on a known feature embedding of state-action pairs. To estimate such systems in finite time identification methods must explore all directions in feature space. We propose an active learning approach that achieves this by repeating three steps: trajectory planning, trajectory tracking, and re-estimation of the system from all available data. We show that our method estimates nonlinear dynamical systems at a parametric rate, similar to the statistical rate of standard linear regression.
This work is devoted to unresolved problems of Artificial General Intelligence - the inefficiency of transfer learning. One of the mechanisms that are used to solve this problem in the area of reinforcement learning is a model-based approach. In the paper we are expanding the schema networks method which allows to extract the logical relationships between objects and actions from the environment data. We present algorithms for training a Delta Schema Network (DSN), predicting future states of the environment and planning actions that will lead to positive reward. DSN shows strong performance of transfer learning on the classic Atari game environment.
Biopharmaceutical manufacturing faces critical challenges, including complexity, high variability, lengthy lead time, and limited historical data and knowledge of the underlying system stochastic process. To address these challenges, we propose a green simulation assisted model-based reinforcement learning to support process online learning and guide dynamic decision making. Basically, the process model risk is quantified by the posterior distribution. At any given policy, we predict the expected system response with prediction risk accounting for both inherent stochastic uncertainty and model risk. Then, we propose green simulation assisted reinforcement learning and derive the mixture proposal distribution of decision process and likelihood ratio based metamodel for the policy gradient, which can selectively reuse process trajectory outputs collected from previous experiments to increase the simulation data-efficiency, improve the policy gradient estimation accuracy, and speed up the search for the optimal policy. Our numerical study indicates that the proposed approach demonstrates the promising performance.
Model-based reinforcement learning algorithms with probabilistic dynamical models are amongst the most data-efficient learning methods. This is often attributed to their ability to distinguish between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. However, while most algorithms distinguish these two uncertainties for learning the model, they ignore it when optimizing the policy, which leads to greedy and insufficient exploration. At the same time, there are no practical solvers for optimistic exploration algorithms. In this paper, we propose a practical optimistic exploration algorithm (H-UCRL). H-UCRL reparameterizes the set of plausible models and hallucinates control directly on the epistemic uncertainty. By augmenting the input space with the hallucinated inputs, H-UCRL can be solved using standard greedy planners. Furthermore, we analyze H-UCRL and construct a general regret bound for well-calibrated models, which is provably sublinear in the case of Gaussian Process models. Based on this theoretical foundation, we show how optimistic exploration can be easily combined with state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithms and different probabilistic models. Our experiments demonstrate that optimistic exploration significantly speeds-up learning when there are penalties on actions, a setting that is notoriously difficult for existing model-based reinforcement learning algorithms.
Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has shown its advantages in sample-efficiency over model-free reinforcement learning (MFRL). Despite the impressive results it achieves, it still faces a trade-off between the ease of data generation and model bias. In this paper, we propose a simple and elegant model-embedding model-based reinforcement learning (MEMB) algorithm in the framework of the probabilistic reinforcement learning. To balance the sample-efficiency and model bias, we exploit both real and imaginary data in the training. In particular, we embed the model in the policy update and learn $Q$ and $V$ functions from the real data set. We provide the theoretical analysis of MEMB with the Lipschitz continuity assumption on the model and policy. At last, we evaluate MEMB on several benchmarks and demonstrate our algorithm can achieve state-of-the-art performance.
Model usage is the central challenge of model-based reinforcement learning. Although dynamics model based on deep neural networks provide good generalization for single step prediction, such ability is over exploited when it is used to predict long horizon trajectories due to compounding errors. In this work, we propose a Dyna-style model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, which we called Maximum Entropy Model Rollouts (MEMR). To eliminate the compounding errors, we only use our model to generate single-step rollouts. Furthermore, we propose to generate \emph{diverse} model rollouts by non-uniform sampling of the environment states such that the entropy of the model rollouts is maximized. We mathematically derived the maximum entropy sampling criteria for one data case under Gaussian prior. To accomplish this criteria, we propose to utilize a prioritized experience replay. Our preliminary experiments in challenging locomotion benchmarks show that our approach achieves the same sample efficiency of the best model-based algorithms, matches the asymptotic performance of the best model-free algorithms, and significantly reduces the computation requirements of other model-based methods.
Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms allow us to combine model-generated data with those collected from interaction with the real system in order to alleviate the data efficiency problem in RL. However, designing such algorithms is often challenging because the bias in simulated data may overshadow the ease of data generation. A potential solution to this challenge is to jointly learn and improve model and policy using a universal objective function. In this paper, we leverage the connection between RL and probabilistic inference, and formulate such an objective function as a variational lower-bound of a log-likelihood. This allows us to use expectation maximization (EM) and iteratively fix a baseline policy and learn a variational distribution, consisting of a model and a policy (E-step), followed by improving the baseline policy given the learned variational distribution (M-step). We propose model-based and model-free policy iteration (actor-critic) style algorithms for the E-step and show how the variational distribution learned by them can be used to optimize the M-step in a fully model-based fashion. Our experiments on a number of continuous control tasks show that despite being more complex, our model-based (E-step) algorithm, called {\em variational model-based policy optimization} (VMBPO), is more sample-efficient and robust to hyper-parameter tuning than its model-free (E-step) counterpart. Using the same control tasks, we also compare VMBPO with several state-of-the-art model-based and model-free RL algorithms and show its sample efficiency and performance.
Throughout life, we might seek a calling, companions, skills, entertainment, truth, self-knowledge, beauty, and edification. The practice of curiosity can be viewed as an extended and open-ended search for valuable information with hidden identity and location in a complex space of interconnected information. Despite its importance, curiosity has been challenging to computationally model because the practice of curiosity often flourishes without specific goals, external reward, or immediate feedback. Here, we show how network science, statistical physics, and philosophy can be integrated into an approach that coheres with and expands the psychological taxonomies of specific-diversive and perceptual-epistemic curiosity. Using this interdisciplinary approach, we distill functional modes of curious information seeking as searching movements in information space. The kinesthetic model of curiosity offers a vibrant counterpart to the deliberative predictions of model-based reinforcement learning. In doing so, this model unearths new computational opportunities for identifying what makes curiosity curious.
This paper studies model-based reinforcement learning (RL) for regret minimization. We focus on finite-horizon episodic RL where the transition model $P$ belongs to a known family of models $\mathcal{P}$, a special case of which is when models in $\mathcal{P}$ take the form of linear mixtures: $P_{\theta} = \sum_{i=1}^{d} \theta_{i}P_{i}$. We propose a model based RL algorithm that is based on optimism principle: In each episode, the set of models that are `consistent' with the data collected is constructed. The criterion of consistency is based on the total squared error of that the model incurs on the task of predicting \emph{values} as determined by the last value estimate along the transitions. The next value function is then chosen by solving the optimistic planning problem with the constructed set of models. We derive a bound on the regret, which, in the special case of linear mixtures, the regret bound takes the form $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{H^{3}T})$, where $H$, $T$ and $d$ are the horizon, total number of steps and dimension of $\theta$, respectively. In particular, this regret bound is independent of the total number of states or actions, and is close to a lower bound $\Omega(\sqrt{HdT})$. For a general model family $\mathcal{P}$, the regret bound is derived using the notion of the so-called Eluder dimension proposed by Russo & Van Roy (2014).
This paper is concerned with the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning, assuming access to a generative model (or simulator). We first consider $\gamma$-discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with state space $\mathcal{S}$ and action space $\mathcal{A}$. Despite a number of prior works tackling this problem, a complete picture of the trade-offs between sample complexity and statistical accuracy is yet to be determined. In particular, all prior results suffer from a severe sample size barrier, in the sense that their claimed statistical guarantees hold only when the sample size exceeds at least $\frac{|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}|}{(1-\gamma)^2}$. The current paper overcomes this barrier by certifying the minimax optimality of two algorithms -- a perturbed model-based algorithm and a conservative model-based algorithm -- as soon as the sample size exceeds the order of $\frac{|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}|}{1-\gamma}$ (modulo some log factor). Moving beyond infinite-horizon MDPs, we further study time-inhomogeneous finite-horizon MDPs, and prove that a plain model-based planning algorithm suffices to achieve minimax-optimal sample complexity given any target accuracy level. To the best of our knowledge, this work delivers the first minimax-optimal guarantees that accommodate the entire range of sample sizes (beyond which finding a meaningful policy is information theoretically infeasible).
Extending the capabilities of robotics to real-world complex, unstructured environments requires the need of developing better perception systems while maintaining low sample complexity. When dealing with high-dimensional state spaces, current methods are either model-free or model-based based on reconstruction objectives. The sample inefficiency of the former constitutes a major barrier for applying them to the real-world. The later, while they present low sample complexity, they learn latent spaces that need to reconstruct every single detail of the scene. In real environments, the task typically just represents a small fraction of the scene. Reconstruction objectives suffer in such scenarios as they capture all the unnecessary components. In this work, we present MIRO, an information theoretic representational learning algorithm for model-based reinforcement learning. We design a latent space that maximizes the mutual information with the future information while being able to capture all the information needed for planning. We show that our approach is more robust than reconstruction objectives in the presence of distractors and cluttered scenes
Current model-based reinforcement learning approaches use the model simply as a learned black-box simulator to augment the data for policy optimization or value function learning. In this paper, we show how to make more effective use of the model by exploiting its differentiability. We construct a policy optimization algorithm that uses the pathwise derivative of the learned model and policy across future timesteps. Instabilities of learning across many timesteps are prevented by using a terminal value function, learning the policy in an actor-critic fashion. Furthermore, we present a derivation on the monotonic improvement of our objective in terms of the gradient error in the model and value function. We show that our approach (i) is consistently more sample efficient than existing state-of-the-art model-based algorithms, (ii) matches the asymptotic performance of model-free algorithms, and (iii) scales to long horizons, a regime where typically past model-based approaches have struggled.
The lifelong control problem of an off-grid microgrid is composed of two tasks, namely estimation of the condition of the microgrid devices and operational planning accounting for the uncertainties by forecasting the future consumption and the renewable production. The main challenge for the effective control arises from the various changes that take place over time. In this paper, we present an open-source reinforcement framework for the modeling of an off-grid microgrid for rural electrification. The lifelong control problem of an isolated microgrid is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We categorize the set of changes that can occur in progressive and abrupt changes. We propose a novel model based reinforcement learning algorithm that is able to address both types of changes. In particular the proposed algorithm demonstrates generalisation properties, transfer capabilities and better robustness in case of fast-changing system dynamics. The proposed algorithm is compared against a rule-based policy and a model predictive controller with look-ahead. The results show that the trained agent is able to outperform both benchmarks in the lifelong setting where the system dynamics are changing over time.