Online social networking sites are experimenting with the following crowd-powered procedure to reduce the spread of fake news and misinformation: whenever a user is exposed to a story through her feed, she can flag the story as misinformation and, if the story receives enough flags, it is sent to a trusted third party for fact checking. If this party identifies the story as misinformation, it is marked as disputed. However, given the uncertain number of exposures, the high cost of fact checking, and the trade-off between flags and exposures, the above mentioned procedure requires careful reasoning and smart algorithms which, to the best of our knowledge, do not exist to date. In this paper, we first introduce a flexible representation of the above procedure using the framework of marked temporal point processes. Then, we develop a scalable online algorithm, Curb, to select which stories to send for fact checking and when to do so to efficiently reduce the spread of misinformation with provable guarantees. In doing so, we need to solve a novel stochastic optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps, which is of independent interest. Experiments on two real-world datasets gathered from Twitter and Weibo show that our algorithm may be able to effectively reduce the spread of fake news and misinformation.
DR-submodular continuous functions are important objectives with wide real-world applications spanning MAP inference in determinantal point processes (DPPs), and mean-field inference for probabilistic submodular models, amongst others. DR-submodularity captures a subclass of non-convex functions that enables both exact minimization and approximate maximization in polynomial time. In this work we study the problem of maximizing non-monotone DR-submodular continuous functions under general down-closed convex constraints. We start by investigating geometric properties that underlie such objectives, e.g., a strong relation between (approximately) stationary points and global optimum is proved. These properties are then used to devise two optimization algorithms with provable guarantees. Concretely, we first devise a "two-phase" algorithm with $1/4$ approximation guarantee. This algorithm allows the use of existing methods for finding (approximately) stationary points as a subroutine, thus, harnessing recent progress in non-convex optimization. Then we present a non-monotone Frank-Wolfe variant with $1/e$ approximation guarantee and sublinear convergence rate. Finally, we extend our approach to a broader class of generalized DR-submodular continuous functions, which captures a wider spectrum of applications. Our theoretical findings are validated on synthetic and real-world problem instances.
We study approximations of non-Gaussian stationary processes having long range correlations with microcanonical models. These models are conditioned by the empirical value of an energy vector, evaluated on a single realization. Asymptotic properties of maximum entropy microcanonical and macrocanonical processes and their convergence to Gibbs measures are reviewed. We show that the Jacobian of the energy vector controls the entropy rate of microcanonical processes. Sampling maximum entropy processes through MCMC algorithms require too many operations when the number of constraints is large. We define microcanonical gradient descent processes by transporting a maximum entropy measure with a gradient descent algorithm which enforces the energy conditions. Convergence and symmetries are analyzed. Approximations of non-Gaussian processes with long range interactions are defined with multiscale energy vectors computed with wavelet and scattering transforms. Sparsity properties are captured with $\bf l^1$ norms. Approximations of Gaussian, Ising and point processes are studied, as well as image and audio texture synthesis.
Optimization of high-dimensional black-box functions is an extremely challenging problem. While Bayesian optimization has emerged as a popular approach for optimizing black-box functions, its applicability has been limited to low-dimensional problems due to its computational and statistical challenges arising from high-dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose to tackle these challenges by (1) assuming a latent additive structure in the function and inferring it properly for more efficient and effective BO, and (2) performing multiple evaluations in parallel to reduce the number of iterations required by the method. Our novel approach learns the latent structure with Gibbs sampling and constructs batched queries using determinantal point processes. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world functions demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing state-of-the-art approaches.
This paper introduces the factorial marked temporal point process model and presents efficient learning methods. In conventional (multi-dimensional) marked temporal point process models, event is often encoded by a single discrete variable i.e. a marker. In this paper, we describe the factorial marked point processes whereby time-stamped event is factored into multiple markers. Accordingly the size of the infectivity matrix modeling the effect between pairwise markers is in power order w.r.t. the number of the discrete marker space. We propose a decoupled learning method with two learning procedures: i) directly solving the model based on two techniques: Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers and Fast Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm; ii) involving a reformulation that transforms the original problem into a Logistic Regression model for more efficient learning. Moreover, a sparse group regularizer is added to identify the key profile features and event labels. Empirical results on real world datasets demonstrate the efficiency of our decoupled and reformulated method. The source code is available online.
Consider observing a collection of discrete events within a network that reflect how network nodes influence one another. Such data are common in spike trains recorded from biological neural networks, interactions within a social network, and a variety of other settings. Data of this form may be modeled as self-exciting point processes, in which the likelihood of future events depends on the past events. This paper addresses the problem of estimating self-excitation parameters and inferring the underlying functional network structure from self-exciting point process data. Past work in this area was limited by strong assumptions which are addressed by the novel approach here. Specifically, in this paper we (1) incorporate saturation in a point process model which both ensures stability and models non-linear thresholding effects; (2) impose general low-dimensional structural assumptions that include sparsity, group sparsity and low-rankness that allows bounds to be developed in the high-dimensional setting; and (3) incorporate long-range memory effects through moving average and higher-order auto-regressive components. Using our general framework, we provide a number of novel theoretical guarantees for high-dimensional self-exciting point processes that reflect the role played by the underlying network structure and long-term memory. We also provide simulations and real data examples to support our methodology and main results.
A parametric point process model is developed, with modeling based on the assumption that sequential observations often share latent phenomena, while also possessing idiosyncratic effects. An alternating optimization method is proposed to learn a "registered" point process that accounts for shared structure, as well as "warping" functions that characterize idiosyncratic aspects of each observed sequence. Under reasonable constraints, in each iteration we update the sample-specific warping functions by solving a set of constrained nonlinear programming problems in parallel, and update the model by maximum likelihood estimation. The justifiability, complexity and robustness of the proposed method are investigated in detail, and the influence of sequence stitching on the learning results is examined empirically. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the method yields explainable point process models, achieving encouraging results compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The superposition of temporal point processes has been studied for many years, although the usefulness of such models for practical applications has not be fully developed. We investigate superposed Hawkes process as an important class of such models, with properties studied in the framework of least squares estimation. The superposition of Hawkes processes is demonstrated to be beneficial for tightening the upper bound of excess risk under certain conditions, and we show the feasibility of the benefit in typical situations. The usefulness of superposed Hawkes processes is verified on synthetic data, and its potential to solve the cold-start problem of recommendation systems is demonstrated on real-world data.
Driven by the need for parallelizable hyperparameter optimization methods, this paper studies \emph{open loop} search methods: sequences that are predetermined and can be generated before a single configuration is evaluated. Examples include grid search, uniform random search, low discrepancy sequences, and other sampling distributions. In particular, we propose the use of $k$-determinantal point processes in hyperparameter optimization via random search. Compared to conventional uniform random search where hyperparameter settings are sampled independently, a $k$-DPP promotes diversity. We describe an approach that transforms hyperparameter search spaces for efficient use with a $k$-DPP. In addition, we introduce a novel Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which can sample from $k$-DPPs defined over any space from which uniform samples can be drawn, including spaces with a mixture of discrete and continuous dimensions or tree structure. Our experiments show significant benefits in realistic scenarios with a limited budget for training supervised learners, whether in serial or parallel.
User engagement in online social networking depends critically on the level of social activity in the corresponding platform--the number of online actions, such as posts, shares or replies, taken by their users. Can we design data-driven algorithms to increase social activity? At a user level, such algorithms may increase activity by helping users decide when to take an action to be more likely to be noticed by their peers. At a network level, they may increase activity by incentivizing a few influential users to take more actions, which in turn will trigger additional actions by other users. In this paper, we model social activity using the framework of marked temporal point processes, derive an alternate representation of these processes using stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps and, exploiting this alternate representation, develop two efficient online algorithms with provable guarantees to steer social activity both at a user and at a network level. In doing so, we establish a previously unexplored connection between optimal control of jump SDEs and doubly stochastic marked temporal point processes, which is of independent interest. Finally, we experiment both with synthetic and real data gathered from Twitter and show that our algorithms consistently steer social activity more effectively than the state of the art.
Evaluating the log determinant of a positive definite matrix is ubiquitous in machine learning. Applications thereof range from Gaussian processes, minimum-volume ellipsoids, metric learning, kernel learning, Bayesian neural networks, Determinental Point Processes, Markov random fields to partition functions of discrete graphical models. In order to avoid the canonical, yet prohibitive, Cholesky $\mathcal{O}(n^{3})$ computational cost, we propose a novel approach, with complexity $\mathcal{O}(n^{2})$, based on a constrained variational Bayes algorithm. We compare our method to Taylor, Chebyshev and Lanczos approaches and show state of the art performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets.
In this technical report, we discuss several sampling algorithms for Determinantal Point Processes (DPP). DPPs have recently gained a broad interest in the machine learning and statistics literature as random point processes with negative correlation, i.e., ones that can generate a "diverse" sample from a set of items. They are parametrized by a matrix $\mathbf{L}$, called $L$-ensemble, that encodes the correlations between items. The standard sampling algorithm is separated in three phases: 1/~eigendecomposition of $\mathbf{L}$, 2/~an eigenvector sampling phase where $\mathbf{L}$'s eigenvectors are sampled independently via a Bernoulli variable parametrized by their associated eigenvalue, 3/~a Gram-Schmidt-type orthogonalisation procedure of the sampled eigenvectors. In a naive implementation, the computational cost of the third step is on average $\mathcal{O}(N\mu^3)$ where $\mu$ is the average number of samples of the DPP. We give an algorithm which runs in $\mathcal{O}(N\mu^2)$ and is extremely simple to implement. If memory is a constraint, we also describe a dual variant with reduced memory costs. In addition, we discuss implementation details often missing in the literature.
Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) are popular models for point processes with repulsion. They appear in numerous contexts, from physics to graph theory, and display appealing theoretical properties. On the more practical side of things, since DPPs tend to select sets of points that are some distance apart (repulsion), they have been advocated as a way of producing random subsets with high diversity. DPPs come in two variants: fixed-size and varying-size. A sample from a varying-size DPP is a subset of random cardinality, while in fixed-size "$k$-DPPs" the cardinality is fixed. The latter makes more sense in many applications, but unfortunately their computational properties are less attractive, since, among other things, inclusion probabilities are harder to compute. In this work we show that as the size of the ground set grows, $k$-DPPs and DPPs become equivalent, meaning that their inclusion probabilities converge. As a by-product, we obtain saddlepoint formulas for inclusion probabilities in $k$-DPPs. These turn out to be extremely accurate, and suffer less from numerical difficulties than exact methods do. Our results also suggest that $k$-DPPs and DPPs also have equivalent maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, we obtain results on asymptotic approximations of elementary symmetric polynomials which may be of independent interest.
Spaced repetition is a technique for efficient memorization which uses repeated, spaced review of content to improve long-term retention. Can we find the optimal reviewing schedule to maximize the benefits of spaced repetition? In this paper, we introduce a novel, flexible representation of spaced repetition using the framework of marked temporal point processes and then address the above question as an optimal control problem for stochastic differential equations with jumps. For two well-known human memory models, we show that the optimal reviewing schedule is given by the recall probability of the content to be learned. As a result, we can then develop a simple, scalable online algorithm, Memorize, to sample the optimal reviewing times. Experiments on both synthetic and real data gathered from Duolingo, a popular language-learning online platform, show that our algorithm may be able to help learners memorize more effectively than alternatives.
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying intensities. We demonstrate that inter-arrival times can be decomposed into simpler auxiliary variables that can be sampled directly, giving exact simulation with no approximation. We establish that the auxiliary variables provides information on the parent process for each event time. The algorithm correctness is shown by verifying the simulated intensities with their theoretical moments. A modular inference procedure consisting of Gibbs samplers through the auxiliary variable augmentation and adaptive rejection sampling is presented. Finally, we compare our proposed simulation method against existing methods, and find significant improvement in terms of algorithm speed. Our inference algorithm is used to discover the strengths of mutually excitations in real dark networks.
Tick is a statistical learning library for Python~3, with a particular emphasis on time-dependent models, such as point processes, and tools for generalized linear models and survival analysis. The core of the library is an optimization module providing model computational classes, solvers and proximal operators for regularization. tick relies on a C++ implementation and state-of-the-art optimization algorithms to provide very fast computations in a single node multi-core setting. Source code and documentation can be downloaded from https://github.com/X-DataInitiative/tick
We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and reciprocity. We propose a family of models based on self-exciting Hawkes point processes in which events depend on the history of the process. The key component is the conditional intensity function of the Hawkes Process, which captures the fact that interactions may arise as a response to past interactions (reciprocity), or due to shared interests between individuals (community structure). In order to capture the sparsity and degree heterogeneity, the base (non time dependent) part of the intensity function builds on compound random measures following Todeschini et al. (2016). We conduct experiments on a variety of real-world temporal interaction data and show that the proposed model outperforms many competing approaches for link prediction, and leads to interpretable parameters.
When faced with a data set too large to be processed all at once, an obvious solution is to retain only part of it. In practice this takes a wide variety of different forms, and among them "coresets" are especially appealing. A coreset is a (small) weighted sample of the original data that comes with the following guarantee: a cost function can be evaluated on the smaller set instead of the larger one, with low relative error. For some classes of problems, and via a careful choice of sampling distribution (based on the so-called "sensitivity" metric), iid random sampling has turned to be one of the most successful methods for building coresets efficiently. However, independent samples are sometimes overly redundant, and one could hope that enforcing diversity would lead to better performance. The difficulty lies in proving coreset properties in non-iid samples. We show that the coreset property holds for samples formed with determinantal point processes (DPP). DPPs are interesting because they are a rare example of repulsive point processes with tractable theoretical properties, enabling us to prove general coreset theorems. We apply our results to both the k-means and the linear regression problems, and give extensive empirical evidence that the small additional computational cost of DPP sampling comes with superior performance over its iid counterpart. Of independent interest, we also provide analytical formulas for the sensitivity in the linear regression and 1-means cases.
The convergence speed of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) can be improved by actively selecting mini-batches. We explore sampling schemes where similar data points are less likely to be selected in the same mini-batch. In particular, we prove that such repulsive sampling schemes lowers the variance of the gradient estimator. This generalizes recent work on using Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) for mini-batch diversification (Zhang et al., 2017) to the broader class of repulsive point processes. We first show that the phenomenon of variance reduction by diversified sampling generalizes in particular to non-stationary point processes. We then show that other point processes may be computationally much more efficient than DPPs. In particular, we propose and investigate Poisson Disk sampling---frequently encountered in the computer graphics community---for this task. We show empirically that our approach improves over standard SGD both in terms of convergence speed as well as final model performance.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are an important concept in random matrix theory and combinatorics. They have also recently attracted interest in the study of numerical methods for machine learning, as they offer an elegant "missing link" between independent Monte Carlo sampling and deterministic evaluation on regular grids, applicable to a general set of spaces. This is helpful whenever an algorithm explores to reduce uncertainty, such as in active learning, Bayesian optimization, reinforcement learning, and marginalization in graphical models. To draw samples from a DPP in practice, existing literature focuses on approximate schemes of low cost, or comparably inefficient exact algorithms like rejection sampling. We point out that, for many settings of relevance to machine learning, it is also possible to draw exact samples from DPPs on continuous domains. We start from an intuitive example on the real line, which is then generalized to multivariate real vector spaces. We also compare to previously studied approximations, showing that exact sampling, despite higher cost, can be preferable where precision is needed.