A variety of real-world processes (over networks) produce sequences of data whose complex temporal dynamics need to be studied. More especially, the event timestamps can carry important information about the underlying network dynamics, which otherwise are not available from the time-series evenly sampled from continuous signals. Moreover, in most complex processes, event sequences and evenly-sampled times series data can interact with each other, which renders joint modeling of those two sources of data necessary. To tackle the above problems, in this paper, we utilize the rich framework of (temporal) point processes to model event data and timely update its intensity function by the synergic twin Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). In the proposed architecture, the intensity function is synergistically modulated by one RNN with asynchronous events as input and another RNN with time series as input. Furthermore, to enhance the interpretability of the model, the attention mechanism for the neural point process is introduced. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end and allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity. We substantiate the superiority of our model in synthetic data and three real-world benchmark datasets.
We present an algorithm capable of identifying a wide variety of human-induced change on the surface of the planet by analyzing matches between local features in time-sequenced remote sensing imagery. We evaluate feature sets, match protocols, and the statistical modeling of feature matches. With application of KAZE features, k-nearest-neighbor descriptor matching, and geometric proximity and bi-directional match consistency checks, average match rates increase more than two-fold over the previous standard. In testing our platform, we developed a small, labeled benchmark dataset expressing large-scale residential, industrial, and civic construction, along with null instances, in California between the years 2010 and 2012. On the benchmark set, our algorithm makes precise, accurate change proposals on two-thirds of scenes. Further, the detection threshold can be tuned so that all or almost all proposed detections are true positives.
The log-determinant of a kernel matrix appears in a variety of machine learning problems, ranging from determinantal point processes and generalized Markov random fields, through to the training of Gaussian processes. Exact calculation of this term is often intractable when the size of the kernel matrix exceeds a few thousand. In the spirit of probabilistic numerics, we reinterpret the problem of computing the log-determinant as a Bayesian inference problem. In particular, we combine prior knowledge in the form of bounds from matrix theory and evidence derived from stochastic trace estimation to obtain probabilistic estimates for the log-determinant and its associated uncertainty within a given computational budget. Beyond its novelty and theoretic appeal, the performance of our proposal is competitive with state-of-the-art approaches to approximating the log-determinant, while also quantifying the uncertainty due to budget-constrained evidence.
We introduce Divnet, a flexible technique for learning networks with diverse neurons. Divnet models neuronal diversity by placing a Determinantal Point Process (DPP) over neurons in a given layer. It uses this DPP to select a subset of diverse neurons and subsequently fuses the redundant neurons into the selected ones. Compared with previous approaches, Divnet offers a more principled, flexible technique for capturing neuronal diversity and thus implicitly enforcing regularization. This enables effective auto-tuning of network architecture and leads to smaller network sizes without hurting performance. Moreover, through its focus on diversity and neuron fusing, Divnet remains compatible with other procedures that seek to reduce memory footprints of networks. We present experimental results to corroborate our claims: for pruning neural networks, Divnet is seen to be notably superior to competing approaches.
The scalable calculation of matrix determinants has been a bottleneck to the widespread application of many machine learning methods such as determinantal point processes, Gaussian processes, generalised Markov random fields, graph models and many others. In this work, we estimate log determinants under the framework of maximum entropy, given information in the form of moment constraints from stochastic trace estimation. The estimates demonstrate a significant improvement on state-of-the-art alternative methods, as shown on a wide variety of UFL sparse matrices. By taking the example of a general Markov random field, we also demonstrate how this approach can significantly accelerate inference in large-scale learning methods involving the log determinant.
Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models that arise in quantum physics and random matrix theory and have recently found numerous applications in computer science. DPPs define distributions over subsets of a given ground set, they exhibit interesting properties such as negative correlation, and, unlike other models, have efficient algorithms for sampling. When applied to kernel methods in machine learning, DPPs favor subsets of the given data with more diverse features. However, many real-world applications require efficient algorithms to sample from DPPs with additional constraints on the subset, e.g., partition or matroid constraints that are important to ensure priors, resource or fairness constraints on the sampled subset. Whether one can efficiently sample from DPPs in such constrained settings is an important problem that was first raised in a survey of DPPs by \cite{KuleszaTaskar12} and studied in some recent works in the machine learning literature. The main contribution of our paper is the first resolution of the complexity of sampling from DPPs with constraints. We give exact efficient algorithms for sampling from constrained DPPs when their description is in unary. Furthermore, we prove that when the constraints are specified in binary, this problem is #P-hard via a reduction from the problem of computing mixed discriminants implying that it may be unlikely that there is an FPRAS. Our results benefit from viewing the constrained sampling problem via the lens of polynomials. Consequently, we obtain a few algorithms of independent interest: 1) to count over the base polytope of regular matroids when there are additional (succinct) budget constraints and, 2) to evaluate and compute the mixed characteristic polynomials, that played a central role in the resolution of the Kadison-Singer problem, for certain special cases.
Linguistic typology studies the range of structures present in human language. The main goal of the field is to discover which sets of possible phenomena are universal, and which are merely frequent. For example, all languages have vowels, while most---but not all---languages have an /u/ sound. In this paper we present the first probabilistic treatment of a basic question in phonological typology: What makes a natural vowel inventory? We introduce a series of deep stochastic point processes, and contrast them with previous computational, simulation-based approaches. We provide a comprehensive suite of experiments on over 200 distinct languages.
Point processes are becoming very popular in modeling asynchronous sequential data due to their sound mathematical foundation and strength in modeling a variety of real-world phenomena. Currently, they are often characterized via intensity function which limits model's expressiveness due to unrealistic assumptions on its parametric form used in practice. Furthermore, they are learned via maximum likelihood approach which is prone to failure in multi-modal distributions of sequences. In this paper, we propose an intensity-free approach for point processes modeling that transforms nuisance processes to a target one. Furthermore, we train the model using a likelihood-free leveraging Wasserstein distance between point processes. Experiments on various synthetic and real-world data substantiate the superiority of the proposed point process model over conventional ones.
Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America.
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous event sequence analysis under the framework of Hawkes processes by leveraging the idea of data synthesis. Given SDC event sequences observed in a variety of time intervals, we propose a sampling-stitching data synthesis method --- sampling predecessors and successors for each SDC event sequence from potential candidates and stitching them together to synthesize long training sequences. The rationality and the feasibility of our method are discussed in terms of arguments based on likelihood. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the proposed data synthesis method improves learning results indeed for both time-invariant and time-varying Hawkes processes.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are popular probabilistic models that arise in many machine learning tasks, where distributions of diverse sets are characterized by matrix determinants. In this paper, we develop fast algorithms to find the most likely configuration (MAP) of large-scale DPPs, which is NP-hard in general. Due to the submodular nature of the MAP objective, greedy algorithms have been used with empirical success. Greedy implementations require computation of log-determinants, matrix inverses or solving linear systems at each iteration. We present faster implementations of the greedy algorithms by utilizing the complementary benefits of two log-determinant approximation schemes: (a) first-order expansions to the matrix log-determinant function and (b) high-order expansions to the scalar log function with stochastic trace estimators. In our experiments, our algorithms are orders of magnitude faster than their competitors, while sacrificing marginal accuracy.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are distributions over sets of items that model diversity using kernels. Their applications in machine learning include summary extraction and recommendation systems. Yet, the cost of sampling from a DPP is prohibitive in large-scale applications, which has triggered an effort towards efficient approximate samplers. We build a novel MCMC sampler that combines ideas from combinatorial geometry, linear programming, and Monte Carlo methods to sample from DPPs with a fixed sample cardinality, also called projection DPPs. Our sampler leverages the ability of the hit-and-run MCMC kernel to efficiently move across convex bodies. Previous theoretical results yield a fast mixing time of our chain when targeting a distribution that is close to a projection DPP, but not a DPP in general. Our empirical results demonstrate that this extends to sampling projection DPPs, i.e., our sampler is more sample-efficient than previous approaches which in turn translates to faster convergence when dealing with costly-to-evaluate functions, such as summary extraction in our experiments.
We consider the problem of sampling k-bandlimited graph signals, ie, linear combinations of the first k graph Fourier modes. We know that a set of k nodes embedding all k-bandlimited signals always exists, thereby enabling their perfect reconstruction after sampling. Unfortunately, to exhibit such a set, one needs to partially diagonalize the graph Laplacian, which becomes prohibitive at large scale. We propose a novel strategy based on determinantal point processes that side-steps partial diagonalisation and enables reconstruction with only O(k) samples. While doing so, we exhibit a new general algorithm to sample determinantal process, faster than the state-of-the-art algorithm by an order k.
Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we study causal relationships (excitations) that are realized by a multivariate Hawkes process. The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) and its variations (spatio-temporal point processes) have been used to study contagion in earthquakes, crimes, neural spiking activities, the stock and foreign exchange markets, etc. In this paper, we consider the multivariate Hawkes process with gaps in observations (MHPG). We propose a variational problem for detecting sparsely hidden relationships with a multivariate Hawkes process that takes into account the gaps from each entity. We bypass the problem of dealing with a large amount of missing events by introducing a small number of unknown boundary conditions. In the case where our observations are sparse (e.g. from 10% to 30%), we show through numerical simulations that robust recovery with MHPG is still possible even if the lengths of the observed intervals are small but they are chosen accordingly. The numerical results also show that the knowledge of gaps and imposing the right boundary conditions are very crucial in discovering the underlying patterns and hidden relationships.
We study a mini-batch diversification scheme for stochastic gradient descent (SGD). While classical SGD relies on uniformly sampling data points to form a mini-batch, we propose a non-uniform sampling scheme based on the Determinantal Point Process (DPP). The DPP relies on a similarity measure between data points and gives low probabilities to mini-batches which contain redundant data, and higher probabilities to mini-batches with more diverse data. This simultaneously balances the data and leads to stochastic gradients with lower variance. We term this approach Diversified Mini-Batch SGD (DM-SGD). We show that regular SGD and a biased version of stratified sampling emerge as special cases. Furthermore, DM-SGD generalizes stratified sampling to cases where no discrete features exist to bin the data into groups. We show experimentally that our method results more interpretable and diverse features in unsupervised setups, and in better classification accuracies in supervised setups.
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capture the self- and mutually-triggering patterns between different events in complicated sequences explicitly and quantitatively and are broadly applicable to many practical problems. In this paper, we describe an open-source toolkit implementing many learning algorithms and analysis tools for Hawkes process model and its variants. Our toolkit systematically summarizes recent state-of-the-art algorithms as well as most classic algorithms of Hawkes processes, which is beneficial for both academical education and research. Source code can be downloaded from https://github.com/HongtengXu/Hawkes-Process-Toolkit.
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to a cluster is generated via the same Hawkes process with specific parameters, and different clusters correspond to different Hawkes processes. The prior distribution of the Hawkes processes is controlled via a Dirichlet distribution. We learn the model via a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and propose an effective variational Bayesian inference algorithm. We specifically analyze the resulting EM-type algorithm in the context of inner-outer iterations and discuss several inner iteration allocation strategies. The identifiability of our model, the convergence of our learning method, and its sample complexity are analyzed in both theoretical and empirical ways, which demonstrate the superiority of our method to other competitors. The proposed method learns the number of clusters automatically and is robust to model misspecification. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our method can learn diverse triggering patterns hidden in asynchronous event sequences and achieve encouraging performance on clustering purity and consistency.
This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point processes. We then introduce the Hawkes process, its event intensity function, as well as schemes for event simulation and parameter estimation. We also describe a practical example drawn from social media data - we show how to model retweet cascades using a Hawkes self-exciting process. We presents a design of the memory kernel, and results on estimating parameters and predicting popularity. The code and sample event data are available as an online appendix
For applications as varied as Bayesian neural networks, determinantal point processes, elliptical graphical models, and kernel learning for Gaussian processes (GPs), one must compute a log determinant of an $n \times n$ positive definite matrix, and its derivatives - leading to prohibitive $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ computations. We propose novel $\mathcal{O}(n)$ approaches to estimating these quantities from only fast matrix vector multiplications (MVMs). These stochastic approximations are based on Chebyshev, Lanczos, and surrogate models, and converge quickly even for kernel matrices that have challenging spectra. We leverage these approximations to develop a scalable Gaussian process approach to kernel learning. We find that Lanczos is generally superior to Chebyshev for kernel learning, and that a surrogate approach can be highly efficient and accurate with popular kernels.
Temporal point processes have been widely applied to model event sequence data generated by online users. In this paper, we consider the problem of how to design the optimal control policy for point processes, such that the stochastic system driven by the point process is steered to a target state. In particular, we exploit the key insight to view the stochastic optimal control problem from the perspective of optimal measure and variational inference. We further propose a convex optimization framework and an efficient algorithm to update the policy adaptively to the current system state. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that our algorithm can steer the user activities much more accurately and efficiently than other stochastic control methods.