Many users in online social networks are constantly trying to gain attention from their followers by broadcasting posts to them. These broadcasters are likely to gain greater attention if their posts can remain visible for a longer period of time among their followers' most recent feeds. Then when to post? In this paper, we study the problem of smart broadcasting using the framework of temporal point processes, where we model users feeds and posts as discrete events occurring in continuous time. Based on such continuous-time model, then choosing a broadcasting strategy for a user becomes a problem of designing the conditional intensity of her posting events. We derive a novel formula which links this conditional intensity with the visibility of the user in her followers' feeds. Furthermore, by exploiting this formula, we develop an efficient convex optimization framework for the when-to-post problem. Our method can find broadcasting strategies that reach a desired visibility level with provable guarantees. We experimented with data gathered from Twitter, and show that our framework can consistently make broadcasters' post more visible than alternatives.
Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models over all subsets a ground set of $N$ items. They have recently gained prominence in several applications that rely on "diverse" subsets. However, their applicability to large problems is still limited due to the $\mathcal O(N^3)$ complexity of core tasks such as sampling and learning. We enable efficient sampling and learning for DPPs by introducing KronDPP, a DPP model whose kernel matrix decomposes as a tensor product of multiple smaller kernel matrices. This decomposition immediately enables fast exact sampling. But contrary to what one may expect, leveraging the Kronecker product structure for speeding up DPP learning turns out to be more difficult. We overcome this challenge, and derive batch and stochastic optimization algorithms for efficiently learning the parameters of a KronDPP.
The Nystr\"om method has long been popular for scaling up kernel methods. Its theoretical guarantees and empirical performance rely critically on the quality of the landmarks selected. We study landmark selection for Nystr\"om using Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), discrete probability models that allow tractable generation of diverse samples. We prove that landmarks selected via DPPs guarantee bounds on approximation errors; subsequently, we analyze implications for kernel ridge regression. Contrary to prior reservations due to cubic complexity of DPPsampling, we show that (under certain conditions) Markov chain DPP sampling requires only linear time in the size of the data. We present several empirical results that support our theoretical analysis, and demonstrate the superior performance of DPP-based landmark selection compared with existing approaches.
We present a framework for accelerating a spectrum of machine learning algorithms that require computation of bilinear inverse forms $u^\top A^{-1}u$, where $A$ is a positive definite matrix and $u$ a given vector. Our framework is built on Gauss-type quadrature and easily scales to large, sparse matrices. Further, it allows retrospective computation of lower and upper bounds on $u^\top A^{-1}u$, which in turn accelerates several algorithms. We prove that these bounds tighten iteratively and converge at a linear (geometric) rate. To our knowledge, ours is the first work to demonstrate these key properties of Gauss-type quadrature, which is a classical and deeply studied topic. We illustrate empirical consequences of our results by using quadrature to accelerate machine learning tasks involving determinantal point processes and submodular optimization, and observe tremendous speedups in several instances.
Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) are elegant probabilistic models of repulsion and diversity over discrete sets of items. But their applicability to large sets is hindered by expensive cubic-complexity matrix operations for basic tasks such as sampling. In light of this, we propose a new method for approximate sampling from discrete $k$-DPPs. Our method takes advantage of the diversity property of subsets sampled from a DPP, and proceeds in two stages: first it constructs coresets for the ground set of items; thereafter, it efficiently samples subsets based on the constructed coresets. As opposed to previous approaches, our algorithm aims to minimize the total variation distance to the original distribution. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets indicate that our sampling algorithm works efficiently on large data sets, and yields more accurate samples than previous approaches.
Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We reveal the relationship between Hawkes process's impact function and its Granger causality graph. Specifically, our model represents impact functions using a series of basis functions and recovers the Granger causality graph via group sparsity of the impact functions' coefficients. We propose an effective learning algorithm combining a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) with a sparse-group-lasso (SGL) regularizer. Additionally, the flexibility of our model allows to incorporate the clustering structure event types into learning framework. We analyze our learning algorithm and propose an adaptive procedure to select basis functions. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our method can learn the Granger causality graph and the triggering patterns of the Hawkes processes simultaneously.
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or Internet memes shared via social media. Neuron spikes stimulate or inhibit spike activity in other neurons. Stock market shocks can trigger a contagion of volatility throughout a financial network. In these and other examples, only individual events associated with network nodes are observed, usually without knowledge of the underlying dynamic relationships between nodes. This paper addresses the challenge of tracking how events within such networks stimulate or influence future events. The proposed approach is an online learning framework well-suited to streaming data, using a multivariate Hawkes point process model to encapsulate autoregressive features of observed events within the social network. Recent work on online learning in dynamic environments is leveraged not only to exploit the dynamics within the underlying network, but also to track the network structure as it evolves. Regret bounds and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method performs nearly as well as an oracle or batch algorithm.
Subset selection problems ask for a small, diverse yet representative subset of the given data. When pairwise similarities are captured by a kernel, the determinants of submatrices provide a measure of diversity or independence of items within a subset. Matroid theory gives another notion of independence, thus giving rise to optimization and sampling questions about Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) under matroid constraints. Partition constraints, as a special case, arise naturally when incorporating additional labeling or clustering information, besides the kernel, in DPPs. Finding the maximum determinant submatrix under matroid constraints on its row/column indices has been previously studied. However, the corresponding question of sampling from DPPs under matroid constraints has been unresolved, beyond the simple cardinality constrained k-DPPs. We give the first polynomial time algorithm to sample exactly from DPPs under partition constraints, for any constant number of partitions. We complement this by a complexity theoretic barrier that rules out such a result under general matroid constraints. Our experiments indicate that partition-constrained DPPs offer more flexibility and more diversity than k-DPPs and their naive extensions, while being reasonably efficient in running time. We also show that a simple greedy initialization followed by local search gives improved approximation guarantees for the problem of MAP inference from k- DPPs on well-conditioned kernels. Our experiments show that this improvement is significant for larger values of k, supporting our theoretical result.
In this note we consider sampling from (non-homogeneous) strongly Rayleigh probability measures. As an important corollary, we obtain a fast mixing Markov Chain sampler for Determinantal Point Processes.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are an elegant model for encoding probabilities over subsets, such as shopping baskets, of a ground set, such as an item catalog. They are useful for a number of machine learning tasks, including product recommendation. DPPs are parametrized by a positive semi-definite kernel matrix. Recent work has shown that using a low-rank factorization of this kernel provides remarkable scalability improvements that open the door to training on large-scale datasets and computing online recommendations, both of which are infeasible with standard DPP models that use a full-rank kernel. In this paper we present a low-rank DPP mixture model that allows us to represent the latent structure present in observed subsets as a mixture of a number of component low-rank DPPs, where each component DPP is responsible for representing a portion of the observed data. The mixture model allows us to effectively address the capacity constraints of the low-rank DPP model. We present an efficient and scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) learning algorithm for our model that uses Gibbs sampling and stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC). Using an evaluation on several real-world product recommendation datasets, we show that our low-rank DPP mixture model provides substantially better predictive performance than is possible with a single low-rank or full-rank DPP, and significantly better performance than several other competing recommendation methods in many cases.
Large volume of networked streaming event data are becoming increasingly available in a wide variety of applications, such as social network analysis, Internet traffic monitoring and healthcare analytics. Streaming event data are discrete observation occurred in continuous time, and the precise time interval between two events carries a great deal of information about the dynamics of the underlying systems. How to promptly detect changes in these dynamic systems using these streaming event data? In this paper, we propose a novel change-point detection framework for multi-dimensional event data over networks. We cast the problem into sequential hypothesis test, and derive the likelihood ratios for point processes, which are computed efficiently via an EM-like algorithm that is parameter-free and can be computed in a distributed fashion. We derive a highly accurate theoretical characterization of the false-alarm-rate, and show that it can achieve weak signal detection by aggregating local statistics over time and networks. Finally, we demonstrate the good performance of our algorithm on numerical examples and real-world datasets from twitter and Memetracker.
This paper introduces a novel framework for modeling temporal events with complex longitudinal dependency that are generated by dependent sources. This framework takes advantage of multidimensional point processes for modeling time of events. The intensity function of the proposed process is a mixture of intensities, and its complexity grows with the complexity of temporal patterns of data. Moreover, it utilizes a hierarchical dependent nonparametric approach to model marks of events. These capabilities allow the proposed model to adapt its temporal and topical complexity according to the complexity of data, which makes it a suitable candidate for real world scenarios. An online inference algorithm is also proposed that makes the framework applicable to a vast range of applications. The framework is applied to a real world application, modeling the diffusion of contents over networks. Extensive experiments reveal the effectiveness of the proposed framework in comparison with state-of-the-art methods.
We propose a new class of determinantal point processes (DPPs) which can be manipulated for inference and parameter learning in potentially sublinear time in the number of items. This class, based on a specific low-rank factorization of the marginal kernel, is particularly suited to a subclass of continuous DPPs and DPPs defined on exponentially many items. We apply this new class to modelling text documents as sampling a DPP of sentences, and propose a conditional maximum likelihood formulation to model topic proportions, which is made possible with no approximation for our class of DPPs. We present an application to document summarization with a DPP on $2^{500}$ items.
Gaussian Process bandit optimization has emerged as a powerful tool for optimizing noisy black box functions. One example in machine learning is hyper-parameter optimization where each evaluation of the target function requires training a model which may involve days or even weeks of computation. Most methods for this so-called "Bayesian optimization" only allow sequential exploration of the parameter space. However, it is often desirable to propose batches or sets of parameter values to explore simultaneously, especially when there are large parallel processing facilities at our disposal. Batch methods require modeling the interaction between the different evaluations in the batch, which can be expensive in complex scenarios. In this paper, we propose a new approach for parallelizing Bayesian optimization by modeling the diversity of a batch via Determinantal point processes (DPPs) whose kernels are learned automatically. This allows us to generalize a previous result as well as prove better regret bounds based on DPP sampling. Our experiments on a variety of synthetic and real-world robotics and hyper-parameter optimization tasks indicate that our DPP-based methods, especially those based on DPP sampling, outperform state-of-the-art methods.
In the present work we demonstrate the use of a parcellation free connectivity model based on Poisson point processes. This model produces for each subject a continuous bivariate intensity function that represents for every possible pair of points the relative rate at which we observe tracts terminating at those points. We fit this model to explore degree sequence equivalents for spatial continuum graphs, and to investigate the local differences between estimated intensity functions for two different tractography methods. This is a companion paper to Moyer et al. (2016), where the model was originally defined.
When governed by underlying low-dimensional dynamics, the interdependence of simultaneously recorded population of neurons can be explained by a small number of shared factors, or a low-dimensional trajectory. Recovering these latent trajectories, particularly from single-trial population recordings, may help us understand the dynamics that drive neural computation. However, due to the biophysical constraints and noise in the spike trains, inferring trajectories from data is a challenging statistical problem in general. Here, we propose a practical and efficient inference method, called the variational latent Gaussian process (vLGP). The vLGP combines a generative model with a history-dependent point process observation together with a smoothness prior on the latent trajectories. The vLGP improves upon earlier methods for recovering latent trajectories, which assume either observation models inappropriate for point processes or linear dynamics. We compare and validate vLGP on both simulated datasets and population recordings from the primary visual cortex. In the V1 dataset, we find that vLGP achieves substantially higher performance than previous methods for predicting omitted spike trains, as well as capturing both the toroidal topology of visual stimuli space, and the noise-correlation. These results show that vLGP is a robust method with a potential to reveal hidden neural dynamics from large-scale neural recordings.
We study probability measures induced by set functions with constraints. Such measures arise in a variety of real-world settings, where prior knowledge, resource limitations, or other pragmatic considerations impose constraints. We consider the task of rapidly sampling from such constrained measures, and develop fast Markov chain samplers for them. Our first main result is for MCMC sampling from Strongly Rayleigh (SR) measures, for which we present sharp polynomial bounds on the mixing time. As a corollary, this result yields a fast mixing sampler for Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), yielding (to our knowledge) the first provably fast MCMC sampler for DPPs since their inception over four decades ago. Beyond SR measures, we develop MCMC samplers for probabilistic models with hard constraints and identify sufficient conditions under which their chains mix rapidly. We illustrate our claims by empirically verifying the dependence of mixing times on the key factors governing our theoretical bounds.
User modeling plays an important role in delivering customized web services to the users and improving their engagement. However, most user models in the literature do not explicitly consider the temporal behavior of users. More recently, continuous-time user modeling has gained considerable attention and many user behavior models have been proposed based on temporal point processes. However, typical point process based models often considered the impact of peer influence and content on the user participation and neglected other factors. Gamification elements, are among those factors that are neglected, while they have a strong impact on user participation in online services. In this paper, we propose interdependent multi-dimensional temporal point processes that capture the impact of badges on user participation besides the peer influence and content factors. We extend the proposed processes to model user actions over the community based question and answering websites, and propose an inference algorithm based on Variational-EM that can efficiently learn the model parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data gathered from Stack Overflow show that our inference algorithm learns the parameters efficiently and the proposed method can better predict the user behavior compared to the alternatives.
Recommender systems often use latent features to explain the behaviors of users and capture the properties of items. As users interact with different items over time, user and item features can influence each other, evolve and co-evolve over time. The compatibility of user and item's feature further influence the future interaction between users and items. Recently, point process based models have been proposed in the literature aiming to capture the temporally evolving nature of these latent features. However, these models often make strong parametric assumptions about the evolution process of the user and item latent features, which may not reflect the reality, and has limited power in expressing the complex and nonlinear dynamics underlying these processes. To address these limitations, we propose a novel deep coevolutionary network model (DeepCoevolve), for learning user and item features based on their interaction graph. DeepCoevolve use recurrent neural network (RNN) over evolving networks to define the intensity function in point processes, which allows the model to capture complex mutual influence between users and items, and the feature evolution over time. We also develop an efficient procedure for training the model parameters, and show that the learned models lead to significant improvements in recommendation and activity prediction compared to previous state-of-the-arts parametric models.
We present a new random sampling strategy for k-bandlimited signals defined on graphs, based on determinantal point processes (DPP). For small graphs, ie, in cases where the spectrum of the graph is accessible, we exhibit a DPP sampling scheme that enables perfect recovery of bandlimited signals. For large graphs, ie, in cases where the graph's spectrum is not accessible, we investigate, both theoretically and empirically, a sub-optimal but much faster DPP based on loop-erased random walks on the graph. Preliminary experiments show promising results especially in cases where the number of measurements should stay as small as possible and for graphs that have a strong community structure. Our sampling scheme is efficient and can be applied to graphs with up to $10^6$ nodes.