Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their dynamics. Temporal point processes offer an elegant framework for modeling event data without discretizing the time. However, the existing maximum-likelihood-estimation (MLE) learning paradigm requires hand-crafting the intensity function beforehand and cannot directly monitor the goodness-of-fit of the estimated model in the process of training. To alleviate the risk of model-misspecification in MLE, we propose to generate samples from the generative model and monitor the quality of the samples in the process of training until the samples and the real data are indistinguishable. We take inspiration from reinforcement learning (RL) and treat the generation of each event as the action taken by a stochastic policy. We parameterize the policy as a flexible recurrent neural network and gradually improve the policy to mimic the observed event distribution. Since the reward function is unknown in this setting, we uncover an analytic and nonparametric form of the reward function using an inverse reinforcement learning formulation. This new RL framework allows us to derive an efficient policy gradient algorithm for learning flexible point process models, and we show that it performs well in both synthetic and real data.
Given a fixed $n\times d$ matrix $\mathbf{X}$, where $n\gg d$, we study the complexity of sampling from a distribution over all subsets of rows where the probability of a subset is proportional to the squared volume of the parallelepiped spanned by the rows (a.k.a. a determinantal point process). In this task, it is important to minimize the preprocessing cost of the procedure (performed once) as well as the sampling cost (performed repeatedly). To that end, we propose a new determinantal point process algorithm which has the following two properties, both of which are novel: (1) a preprocessing step which runs in time $O(\text{number-of-non-zeros}(\mathbf{X})\cdot\log n)+\text{poly}(d)$, and (2) a sampling step which runs in $\text{poly}(d)$ time, independent of the number of rows $n$. We achieve this by introducing a new regularized determinantal point process (R-DPP), which serves as an intermediate distribution in the sampling procedure by reducing the number of rows from $n$ to $\text{poly}(d)$. Crucially, this intermediate distribution does not distort the probabilities of the target sample. Our key novelty in defining the R-DPP is the use of a Poisson random variable for controlling the probabilities of different subset sizes, leading to new determinantal formulas such as the normalization constant for this distribution. Our algorithm has applications in many diverse areas where determinantal point processes have been used, such as machine learning, stochastic optimization, data summarization and low-rank matrix reconstruction.
We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps. In contrast to previous work, this novel perspective is particularly well-suited to make use of fine-grained data about disease outbreaks and lets us overcome the shortcomings of current control strategies. Our control strategy resorts to treatment intensities to determine who to treat and when to do so to minimize the amount of infected individuals over time. Preliminary experiments with synthetic data show that our control strategy consistently outperforms several alternatives. Looking into the future, we believe our methodology provides a promising step towards the development of practical data-driven control strategies of epidemic processes.
PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of event sequences. In practice, the key points of point process-based sequential data modeling include: 1) How to design intensity functions to describe the mechanism behind observed data? 2) How to learn the proposed intensity functions from observed data? The goal of PoPPy is providing a user-friendly solution to the key points above and achieving large-scale point process-based sequential data analysis, simulation and prediction.
Kernel methods on discrete domains have shown great promise for many challenging data types, for instance, biological sequence data and molecular structure data. Scalable kernel methods like Support Vector Machines may offer good predictive performances but do not intrinsically provide uncertainty estimates. In contrast, probabilistic kernel methods like Gaussian Processes offer uncertainty estimates in addition to good predictive performance but fall short in terms of scalability. While the scalability of Gaussian processes can be improved using sparse inducing point approximations, the selection of these inducing points remains challenging. We explore different techniques for selecting inducing points on discrete domains, including greedy selection, determinantal point processes, and simulated annealing. We find that simulated annealing, which can select inducing points that are not in the training set, can perform competitively with support vector machines and full Gaussian processes on synthetic data, as well as on challenging real-world DNA sequence data.
We study the Gibbs sampling algorithm for continuous determinantal point processes. We show that, given a warm start, the Gibbs sampler generates a random sample from a continuous $k$-DPP defined on a $d$-dimensional domain by only taking $\text{poly}(k)$ number of steps. As an application, we design an algorithm to generate random samples from $k$-DPPs defined by a spherical Gaussian kernel on a unit sphere in $d$-dimensions, $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$ in time polynomial in $k,d$.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models for repulsion. When used to represent the occurrence of random subsets of a finite base set, DPPs allow to model global negative associations in a mathematically elegant and direct way. Discrete DPPs have become popular and computationally tractable models for solving several machine learning tasks that require the selection of diverse objects, and have been successfully applied in numerous real-life problems. Despite their popularity, the statistical properties of such models have not been adequately explored. In this note, we derive the Markov properties of discrete DPPs and show how they can be expressed using graphical models.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are specific probability distributions over clouds of points that are used as models and computational tools across physics, probability, statistics, and more recently machine learning. Sampling from DPPs is a challenge and therefore we present DPPy, a Python toolbox that gathers known exact and approximate sampling algorithms for both finite and continuous DPPs. The project is hosted on GitHub and equipped with an extensive documentation.
Numerous powerful point process models have been developed to understand temporal patterns in sequential data from fields such as health-care, electronic commerce, social networks, and natural disaster forecasting. In this paper, we develop novel models for learning the temporal distribution of human activities in streaming data (e.g., videos and person trajectories). We propose an integrated framework of neural networks and temporal point processes for predicting when the next activity will happen. Because point processes are limited to taking event frames as input, we propose a simple yet effective mechanism to extract features at frames of interest while also preserving the rich information in the remaining frames. We evaluate our model on two challenging datasets. The results show that our model outperforms traditional statistical point process approaches significantly, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing the underlying temporal dynamics as well as the correlation within sequential activities. Furthermore, we also extend our model to a joint estimation framework for predicting the timing, spatial location, and category of the activity simultaneously, to answer the when, where, and what of activity prediction.
It is now much easier than ever before to produce videos. While the ubiquitous video data is a great source for information discovery and extraction, the computational challenges are unparalleled. Automatically summarizing the videos has become a substantial need for browsing, searching, and indexing visual content. This paper is in the vein of supervised video summarization using sequential determinantal point process (SeqDPP), which models diversity by a probabilistic distribution. We improve this model in two folds. In terms of learning, we propose a large-margin algorithm to address the exposure bias problem in SeqDPP. In terms of modeling, we design a new probabilistic distribution such that, when it is integrated into SeqDPP, the resulting model accepts user input about the expected length of the summary. Moreover, we also significantly extend a popular video summarization dataset by 1) more egocentric videos, 2) dense user annotations, and 3) a refined evaluation scheme. We conduct extensive experiments on this dataset (about 60 hours of videos in total) and compare our approach to several competitive baselines.
We here focus on the task of learning Granger causality matrices for multivariate point processes. In order to accomplish this task, our work is the first to explore the use of Wold processes. By doing so, we are able to develop asymptotically fast MCMC learning algorithms. With $N$ being the total number of events and $K$ the number of processes, our learning algorithm has a $O(N(\,\log(N)\,+\,\log(K)))$ cost per iteration. This is much faster than the $O(N^3\,K^2)$ or $O(K^3)$ for the state of the art. Our approach, called GrangerBusca, is validated on nine datasets. This is an advance in relation to most prior efforts which focus mostly on subsets of the Memetracker data. Regarding accuracy, GrangerBusca is three times more accurate (in Precision@10) than the state of the art for the commonly explored subsets Memetracker. Due to GrangerBusca's much lower training complexity, our approach is the only one able to train models for larger, full, sets of data.
The large volume of video content and high viewing frequency demand automatic video summarization algorithms, of which a key property is the capability of modeling diversity. If videos are lengthy like hours-long egocentric videos, it is necessary to track the temporal structures of the videos and enforce local diversity. The local diversity refers to that the shots selected from a short time duration are diverse but visually similar shots are allowed to co-exist in the summary if they appear far apart in the video. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic model, built upon SeqDPP, to dynamically control the time span of a video segment upon which the local diversity is imposed. In particular, we enable SeqDPP to learn to automatically infer how local the local diversity is supposed to be from the input video. The resulting model is extremely involved to train by the hallmark maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which further suffers from the exposure bias and non-differentiable evaluation metrics. To tackle these problems, we instead devise a reinforcement learning algorithm for training the proposed model. Extensive experiments verify the advantages of our model and the new learning algorithm over MLE-based methods.
We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and Ising models. Locally-moving Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Gibbs sampler, are commonly used for inference in such models, but their convergence is, at times, prohibitively slow. This is often caused by state-space bottlenecks that greatly hinder the movement of such samplers. We propose a novel sampling strategy that uses a specific mixture of product distributions to propose global moves and, thus, accelerate convergence. Furthermore, we show how to construct such a mixture using semigradient information. We illustrate the effectiveness of combining our sampler with existing ones, both theoretically on an example model, as well as practically on three models learned from real-world data sets.
Studying neural connectivity is considered one of the most promising and challenging areas of modern neuroscience. The underpinnings of cognition are hidden in the way neurons interact with each other. However, our experimental methods of studying real neural connections at a microscopic level are still arduous and costly. An efficient alternative is to infer connectivity based on the neuronal activations using computational methods. A reliable method for network inference, would not only facilitate research of neural circuits without the need of laborious experiments but also reveal insights on the underlying mechanisms of the brain. In this work, we perform a review of methods for neural circuit inference given the activation time series of the neural population. Approaching it from machine learning perspective, we divide the methodologies into unsupervised and supervised learning. The methods are based on correlation metrics, probabilistic point processes, and neural networks. Furthermore, we add a data mining methodology inspired by influence estimation in social networks as a new supervised learning approach. For comparison, we use the small version of the Chalearn Connectomics competition, that is accompanied with ground truth connections between neurons. The experiments indicate that unsupervised learning methods perform better, however, supervised methods could surpass them given enough data and resources.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are elegant probabilistic models of repulsion that arise in quantum physics and random matrix theory. In contrast to traditional structured models like Markov random fields, which become intractable and hard to approximate in the presence of negative correlations, DPPs offer efficient and exact algorithms for sampling, marginalization, conditioning, and other inference tasks. We provide a gentle introduction to DPPs, focusing on the intuitions, algorithms, and extensions that are most relevant to the machine learning community, and show how DPPs can be applied to real-world applications like finding diverse sets of high-quality search results, building informative summaries by selecting diverse sentences from documents, modeling non-overlapping human poses in images or video, and automatically building timelines of important news stories.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete setting admits an efficient sampling algorithm based on the eigendecomposition of the defining kernel matrix. Recently, there has been growing interest in using DPPs defined on continuous spaces. While the discrete-DPP sampler extends formally to the continuous case, computationally, the steps required are not tractable in general. In this paper, we present two efficient DPP sampling schemes that apply to a wide range of kernel functions: one based on low rank approximations via Nystrom and random Fourier feature techniques and another based on Gibbs sampling. We demonstrate the utility of continuous DPPs in repulsive mixture modeling and synthesizing human poses spanning activity spaces.
Shape from texture refers to the extraction of 3D information from 2D images with irregular texture. This paper introduces a statistical framework to learn shape from texture where convex texture elements in a 2D image are represented through a point process. In a first step, the 2D image is preprocessed to generate a probability map corresponding to an estimate of the unnormalized intensity of the latent point process underlying the texture elements. The latent point process is subsequently inferred from the probability map in a non-parametric, model free manner. Finally, the 3D information is extracted from the point pattern by applying a locally scaled point process model where the local scaling function represents the deformation caused by the projection of a 3D surface onto a 2D image.
Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or impossible to measure the network directly. Examples of latent networks include economic interactions linking financial instruments and patterns of reciprocity in gang violence. In these cases, we are limited to noisy observations of events associated with each node. To enable analysis of these implicit networks, we develop a probabilistic model that combines mutually-exciting point processes with random graph models. We show how the Poisson superposition principle enables an elegant auxiliary variable formulation and a fully-Bayesian, parallel inference algorithm. We evaluate this new model empirically on several datasets.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are well-suited for modeling repulsion and have proven useful in many applications where diversity is desired. While DPPs have many appealing properties, such as efficient sampling, learning the parameters of a DPP is still considered a difficult problem due to the non-convex nature of the likelihood function. In this paper, we propose using Bayesian methods to learn the DPP kernel parameters. These methods are applicable in large-scale and continuous DPP settings even when the exact form of the eigendecomposition is unknown. We demonstrate the utility of our DPP learning methods in studying the progression of diabetic neuropathy based on spatial distribution of nerve fibers, and in studying human perception of diversity in images.
Determinantal point process have recently been used as models in machine learning and this has raised questions regarding the characterizations of conditional independence. In this paper we investigate characterizations of conditional independence. We describe some conditional independencies through the conditions on the kernel of a determinantal point process, and show many can be obtained using the graph induced by a kernel of the $L$-ensemble.