We propose a new class of structured methods for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, called DPPMC, designed for high-dimensional nonisotropic distributions where samples are correlated to reduce the variance of the estimator via determinantal point processes. We successfully apply DPPMCs to problems involving nonisotropic distributions arising in guided evolution strategy (GES) methods for RL, CMA-ES techniques and trust region algorithms for blackbox optimization, improving state-of-the-art in all these settings. In particular, we show that DPPMCs drastically improve exploration profiles of the existing evolution strategy algorithms. We further confirm our results, analyzing random feature map estimators for Gaussian mixture kernels. We provide theoretical justification of our empirical results, showing a connection between DPPMCs and structured orthogonal MC methods for isotropic distributions.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have attracted substantial attention as an elegant probabilistic model that captures the balance between quality and diversity within sets. DPPs are conventionally parameterized by a positive semi-definite kernel matrix, and this symmetric kernel encodes only repulsive interactions between items. These so-called symmetric DPPs have significant expressive power, and have been successfully applied to a variety of machine learning tasks, including recommendation systems, information retrieval, and automatic summarization, among many others. Efficient algorithms for learning symmetric DPPs and sampling from these models have been reasonably well studied. However, relatively little attention has been given to nonsymmetric DPPs, which relax the symmetric constraint on the kernel. Nonsymmetric DPPs allow for both repulsive and attractive item interactions, which can significantly improve modeling power, resulting in a model that may better fit for some applications. We present a method that enables a tractable algorithm, based on maximum likelihood estimation, for learning nonsymmetric DPPs from data composed of observed subsets. Our method imposes a particular decomposition of the nonsymmetric kernel that enables such tractable learning algorithms, which we analyze both theoretically and experimentally. We evaluate our model on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating improved predictive performance compared to symmetric DPPs, which have previously shown strong performance on modeling tasks associated with these datasets.
Selecting diverse and important items, called landmarks, from a large set is a problem of interest in machine learning. As a specific example, in order to deal with large training sets, kernel methods often rely on low rank matrix Nystr\"om approximations based on the selection or sampling of landmarks. In this context, we propose a deterministic and a randomized adaptive algorithm for selecting landmark points within a training data set. These landmarks are related to the minima of a sequence of kernelized Christoffel functions. Beyond the known connection between Christoffel functions and leverage scores, a connection of our method with finite determinantal point processes (DPPs) is also explained. Namely, our construction promotes diversity among important landmark points in a way similar to DPPs. Also, we explain how our randomized adaptive algorithm can influence the accuracy of Kernel Ridge Regression.
Temporal point process is an expressive tool for modeling event sequences over time. In this paper, we take a reinforcement learning view whereby the observed sequences are assumed to be generated from a mixture of latent policies. The purpose is to cluster the sequences with different temporal patterns into the underlying policies while learning each of the policy model. The flexibility of our model lies in: i) all the components are networks including the policy network for modeling the intensity function of temporal point process; ii) to handle varying-length event sequences, we resort to inverse reinforcement learning by decomposing the observed sequence into states (RNN hidden embedding of history) and actions (time interval to next event) in order to learn the reward function, thus achieving better performance or increasing efficiency compared to existing methods using rewards over the entire sequence such as log-likelihood or Wasserstein distance. We adopt an expectation-maximization framework with the E-step estimating the cluster labels for each sequence, and the M-step aiming to learn the respective policy. Extensive experiments show the efficacy of our method against state-of-the-arts.
Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they are affected by jumps. To this end, we introduce Neural Jump Stochastic Differential Equations that provide a data-driven approach to learn continuous and discrete dynamic behavior, i.e., hybrid systems that both flow and jump. Our approach extends the framework of Neural Ordinary Differential Equations with a stochastic process term that models discrete events. We then model temporal point processes with a piecewise-continuous latent trajectory, where the discontinuities are caused by stochastic events whose conditional intensity depends on the latent state. We demonstrate the predictive capabilities of our model on a range of synthetic and real-world marked point process datasets, including classical point processes (such as Hawkes processes), awards on Stack Overflow, medical records, and earthquake monitoring.
Modeling and forecasting forward citations to a patent is a central task for the discovery of emerging technologies and for measuring the pulse of inventive progress. Conventional methods for forecasting these forward citations cast the problem as analysis of temporal point processes which rely on the conditional intensity of previously received citations. Recent approaches model the conditional intensity as a chain of recurrent neural networks to capture memory dependency in hopes of reducing the restrictions of the parametric form of the intensity function. For the problem of patent citations, we observe that forecasting a patent's chain of citations benefits from not only the patent's history itself but also from the historical citations of assignees and inventors associated with that patent. In this paper, we propose a sequence-to-sequence model which employs an attention-of-attention mechanism to capture the dependencies of these multiple time sequences. Furthermore, the proposed model is able to forecast both the timestamp and the category of a patent's next citation. Extensive experiments on a large patent citation dataset collected from USPTO demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models at forward citation forecasting.
A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found effective. RNN based models usually assume a specific functional form for the time course of the intensity function of a point process (e.g., exponentially decreasing or increasing with the time since the most recent event). However, such an assumption can restrict the expressive power of the model. We herein propose a novel RNN based model in which the time course of the intensity function is represented in a general manner. In our approach, we first model the integral of the intensity function using a feedforward neural network and then obtain the intensity function as its derivative. This approach enables us to both obtain a flexible model of the intensity function and exactly evaluate the log-likelihood function, which contains the integral of the intensity function, without any numerical approximations. Our model achieves competitive or superior performances compared to the previous state-of-the-art methods for both synthetic and real datasets.
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations should satisfy two properties: feasibility of the counterfactual actions given user context and constraints, and diversity among the counterfactuals presented. To this end, we propose a framework for generating and evaluating a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes. To evaluate the actionability of counterfactuals, we provide metrics that enable comparison of counterfactual-based methods to other local explanation methods. We further address necessary tradeoffs and point to causal implications in optimizing for counterfactuals. Our experiments on four real-world datasets show that our framework can generate a set of counterfactuals that are diverse and well approximate local decision boundaries, outperforming prior approaches to generating diverse counterfactuals. We provide an implementation of the framework at https://github.com/microsoft/DiCE.
We propose a novel probabilistic generative model for action sequences. The model is termed the Action Point Process VAE (APP-VAE), a variational auto-encoder that can capture the distribution over the times and categories of action sequences. Modeling the variety of possible action sequences is a challenge, which we show can be addressed via the APP-VAE's use of latent representations and non-linear functions to parameterize distributions over which event is likely to occur next in a sequence and at what time. We empirically validate the efficacy of APP-VAE for modeling action sequences on the MultiTHUMOS and Breakfast datasets.
Machine learning models for repeated measurements are limited. Using topological data analysis (TDA), we present a classifier for repeated measurements which samples from the data space and builds a network graph based on the data topology. When applying this to two case studies, accuracy exceeds alternative models with additional benefits such as reporting data subsets with high purity along with feature values. For 300 examples of 3 tree species, the accuracy reached 80% after 30 datapoints, which was improved to 90% after increased sampling to 400 datapoints. Using data from 100 examples of each of 6 point processes, the classifier achieved 96.8% accuracy. In both datasets, the TDA classifier outperformed an alternative model. This algorithm and software can be beneficial for repeated measurement data common in biological sciences, as both an accurate classifier and a feature selection tool.
Product bundling, offering a combination of items to customers, is one of the marketing strategies commonly used in online e-commerce and offline retailers. A high-quality bundle generalizes frequent items of interest, and diversity across bundles boosts the user-experience and eventually increases transaction volume. In this paper, we formalize the personalized bundle list recommendation as a structured prediction problem and propose a bundle generation network (BGN), which decomposes the problem into quality/diversity parts by the determinantal point processes (DPPs). BGN uses a typical encoder-decoder framework with a proposed feature-aware softmax to alleviate the inadequate representation of traditional softmax, and integrates the masked beam search and DPP selection to produce high-quality and diversified bundle list with an appropriate bundle size. We conduct extensive experiments on three public datasets and one industrial dataset, including two generated from co-purchase records and the other two extracted from real-world online bundle services. BGN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of quality, diversity and response time over all datasets. In particular, BGN improves the precision of the best competitors by 16\% on average while maintaining the highest diversity on four datasets, and yields a 3.85x improvement of response time over the best competitors in the bundle list recommendation problem.
Gaussian processes are the leading class of distributions on random functions, but they suffer from well known issues including difficulty scaling and inflexibility with respect to certain shape constraints (such as nonnegativity). Here we propose Deep Random Splines, a flexible class of random functions obtained by transforming Gaussian noise through a deep neural network whose output are the parameters of a spline. Unlike Gaussian processes, Deep Random Splines allow us to readily enforce shape constraints while inheriting the richness and tractability of deep generative models. We also present an observational model for point process data which uses Deep Random Splines to model the intensity function of each point process and apply it to neural population data to obtain a low-dimensional representation of spiking activity. Inference is performed via a variational autoencoder that uses a novel recurrent encoder architecture that can handle multiple point processes as input. We use a newly collected dataset where a primate completes a pedaling task, and observe better dimensionality reduction with our model than with competing alternatives.
Gaussian process (GP) modulated Cox processes are widely used to model point patterns. Existing approaches require a mapping (link function) between the unconstrained GP and the positive intensity function. This commonly yields solutions that do not have a closed form or that are restricted to specific covariance functions. We introduce a novel finite approximation of GP-modulated Cox processes where positiveness conditions can be imposed directly on the GP, with no restrictions on the covariance function. Our approach can also ensure other types of inequality constraints (e.g. monotonicity, convexity), resulting in more versatile models that can be used for other classes of point processes (e.g. renewal processes). We demonstrate on both synthetic and real-world data that our framework accurately infers the intensity functions. Where monotonicity is a feature of the process, our ability to include this in the inference improves results.
We present a machine learning model for the analysis of randomly generated discrete signals, modeled as the points of an inhomogeneous, compound Poisson point process. Like the wavelet scattering transform introduced by Mallat, our construction is naturally invariant to translations and reflections, but it decouples the roles of scale and frequency, replacing wavelets with Gabor-type measurements. We show that, with suitable nonlinearities, our measurements distinguish Poisson point processes from common self-similar processes, and separate different types of Poisson point processes.
Crimes emerge out of complex interactions of human behaviors and situations. Linkages between crime incidents are highly complex. Detecting crime linkage given a set of incidents is a highly challenging task since we only have limited information, including text descriptions, incident times, and locations. In practice, there are very few labels. We propose a new statistical modeling framework for {\it spatio-temporal-textual} data and demonstrate its usage on crime linkage detection. We capture linkages of crime incidents via multivariate marked spatio-temporal Hawkes processes and treat embedding vectors of the free-text as {\it marks} of the incident, inspired by the notion of {\it modus operandi} (M.O.) in crime analysis. Numerical results using real data demonstrate the good performance of our method as well as reveals interesting patterns in the crime data: the joint modeling of space, time, and text information enhances crime linkage detection compared with the state-of-the-art, and the learned spatial dependence from data can be useful for police operations.
Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) provide an elegant and versatile way to sample sets of items that balance the point-wise quality with the set-wise diversity of selected items. For this reason, they have gained prominence in many machine learning applications that rely on subset selection. However, sampling from a DPP over a ground set of size $N$ is a costly operation, requiring in general an $O(N^3)$ preprocessing cost and an $O(Nk^3)$ sampling cost for subsets of size $k$. We approach this problem by introducing DPPNets: generative deep models that produce DPP-like samples for arbitrary ground sets. We develop an inhibitive attention mechanism based on transformer networks that captures a notion of dissimilarity between feature vectors. We show theoretically that such an approximation is sensible as it maintains the guarantees of inhibition or dissimilarity that makes DPPs so powerful and unique. Empirically, we demonstrate that samples from our model receive high likelihood under the more expensive DPP alternative.
Motivated by the prediction of cell loads in cellular networks, we formulate the following new, fundamental problem of statistical learning of geometric marks of point processes: An unknown marking function, depending on the geometry of point patterns, produces characteristics (marks) of the points. One aims at learning this function from the examples of marked point patterns in order to predict the marks of new point patterns. To approximate (interpolate) the marking function, in our baseline approach, we build a statistical regression model of the marks with respect some local point distance representation. In a more advanced approach, we use a global data representation via the scattering moments of random measures, which build informative and stable to deformations data representation, already proven useful in image analysis and related application domains. In this case, the regression of the scattering moments of the marked point patterns with respect to the non-marked ones is combined with the numerical solution of the inverse problem, where the marks are recovered from the estimated scattering moments. Considering some simple, generic marks, often appearing in the modeling of wireless networks, such as the shot-noise values, nearest neighbour distance, and some characteristics of the Voronoi cells, we show that the scattering moments can capture similar geometry information as the baseline approach, and can reach even better performance, especially for non-local marking functions. Our results motivate further development of statistical learning tools for stochastic geometry and analysis of wireless networks, in particular to predict cell loads in cellular networks from the locations of base stations and traffic demand.
A new type of dependent thinning for point processes in continuous space is proposed, which leverages the advantages of determinantal point processes defined on finite spaces and, as such, is particularly amenable to statistical, numerical, and simulation techniques. It gives a new point process that can serve as a network model exhibiting repulsion. The properties and functions of the new point process, such as moment measures, the Laplace functional, the void probabilities, as well as conditional (Palm) characteristics can be estimated accurately by simulating the underlying (non-thinned) point process, which can be taken, for example, to be Poisson. This is in contrast (and preference to) finite Gibbs point processes, which, instead of thinning, require weighting the Poisson realizations, involving usually intractable normalizing constants. Models based on determinantal point processes are also well suited for statistical (supervised) learning techniques, allowing the models to be fitted to observed network patterns with some particular geometric properties. We illustrate this approach by imitating with determinantal thinning the well-known Mat{\'e}rn~II hard-core thinning, as well as a soft-core thinning depending on nearest-neighbour triangles. These two examples demonstrate how the proposed approach can lead to new, statistically optimized, probabilistic transmission scheduling schemes.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have attracted significant attention as an elegant model that is able to capture the balance between quality and diversity within sets. DPPs are parameterized by a positive semi-definite kernel matrix. While DPPs have substantial expressive power, they are fundamentally limited by the parameterization of the kernel matrix and their inability to capture nonlinear interactions between items within sets. We present the deep DPP model as way to address these limitations, by using a deep feed-forward neural network to learn the kernel matrix. In addition to allowing us to capture nonlinear item interactions, the deep DPP also allows easy incorporation of item metadata into DPP learning. Since the learning target is the DPP kernel matrix, the deep DPP allows us to use existing DPP algorithms for efficient learning, sampling, and prediction. Through an evaluation on several real-world datasets, we show experimentally that the deep DPP can provide a considerable improvement in the predictive performance of DPPs, while also outperforming strong baseline models in many cases.
The standard greedy algorithm has been recently shown to enjoy approximation guarantees for constrained non-submodular nondecreasing set function maximization. While these recent results allow to better characterize the empirical success of the greedy algorithm, they are only applicable to simple cardinality constraints. In this paper, we study the problem of maximizing a non-submodular nondecreasing set function subject to a general matroid constraint. We first show that the standard greedy algorithm offers an approximation factor of $\frac{0.4 {\gamma}^{2}}{\sqrt{\gamma r} + 1}$, where $\gamma$ is the submodularity ratio of the function and $r$ is the rank of the matroid. Then, we show that the same greedy algorithm offers a constant approximation factor of $(1 + 1/(1-\alpha))^{-1}$, where $\alpha$ is the generalized curvature of the function. In addition, we demonstrate that these approximation guarantees are applicable to several real-world applications in which the submodularity ratio and the generalized curvature can be bounded. Finally, we show that our greedy algorithm does achieve a competitive performance in practice using a variety of experiments on synthetic and real-world data.