Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving approximate inference over the latent variables by minimizing a tight upper bound on the approximation gap. Given a discrete latent variable $Z$, the proposed approximation reduces inference complexity from $O(|Z|^c)$ to $O(|Z|)$. We use convex conjugates to determine this upper bound in a closed form and show that its addition to the optimization objective results in improved results for models assuming proportional hazards as in Survival Analysis.
Event-scheduling algorithms can compute in continuous time the next occurrence of points (as events) of a counting process based on their current conditional intensity. In particular event-scheduling algorithms can be adapted to perform the simulation of finite neuronal networks activity. These algorithms are based on Ogata's thinning strategy \cite{Oga81}, which always needs to simulate the whole network to access the behaviour of one particular neuron of the network. On the other hand, for discrete time models, theoretical algorithms based on Kalikow decomposition can pick at random influencing neurons and perform a perfect simulation (meaning without approximations) of the behaviour of one given neuron embedded in an infinite network, at every time step. These algorithms are currently not computationally tractable in continuous time. To solve this problem, an event-scheduling algorithm with Kalikow decomposition is proposed here for the sequential simulation of point processes neuronal models satisfying this decomposition. This new algorithm is applied to infinite neuronal networks whose finite time simulation is a prerequisite to realistic brain modeling.
We consider the sequential anomaly detection problem in the one-class setting when only the anomalous sequences are available and propose an adversarial sequential detector by solving a minimax problem to find an optimal detector against the worst-case sequences from a generator. The generator captures the dependence in sequential events using the marked point process model. The detector sequentially evaluates the likelihood of a test sequence and compares it with a time-varying threshold, also learned from data through the minimax problem. We demonstrate our proposed method's good performance using numerical experiments on simulations and proprietary large-scale credit card fraud datasets. The proposed method can generally apply to detecting anomalous sequences.
Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions and does not rely on restrictive parametric forms. Comparisons with state-of-the-art baseline models on both synthetic and challenging real-life datasets show that the proposed framework is effective at modeling the stochasticity of discrete event sequences.
It is well established that temporal organization is critical to memory, and that the ability to temporally organize information is fundamental to many perceptual, cognitive, and motor processes. While our understanding of how the brain processes the spatial context of memories has advanced considerably, our understanding of their temporal organization lags far behind. In this paper, we propose a new approach for elucidating the neural basis of complex behaviors and temporal organization of memories. More specifically, we focus on neural decoding - the prediction of behavioral or experimental conditions based on observed neural data. In general, this is a challenging classification problem, which is of immense interest in neuroscience. Our goal is to develop a new framework that not only improves the overall accuracy of decoding, but also provides a clear latent representation of the decoding process. To accomplish this, our approach uses a Variational Auto-encoder (VAE) model with a diversity-encouraging prior based on determinantal point processes (DPP) to improve latent representation learning by avoiding redundancy in the latent space. We apply our method to data collected from a novel rat experiment that involves presenting repeated sequences of odors at a single port and testing the rats' ability to identify each odor. We show that our method leads to substantially higher accuracy rate for neural decoding and allows to discover novel biological phenomena by providing a clear latent representation of the decoding process.
Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.
Various Seq2Seq learning models designed for machine translation were applied for abstractive summarization task recently. Despite these models provide high ROUGE scores, they are limited to generate comprehensive summaries with a high level of abstraction due to its degenerated attention distribution. We introduce Diverse Convolutional Seq2Seq Model(DivCNN Seq2Seq) using Determinantal Point Processes methods(Micro DPPs and Macro DPPs) to produce attention distribution considering both quality and diversity. Without breaking the end to end architecture, DivCNN Seq2Seq achieves a higher level of comprehensiveness compared to vanilla models and strong baselines. All the reproducible codes and datasets are available online.
Reasoning about graphs evolving over time is a challenging concept in many domains, such as bioinformatics, physics, and social networks. We consider a common case in which edges can be short term interactions (e.g., messaging) or long term structural connections (e.g., friendship). In practice, long term edges are often specified by humans. Human-specified edges can be both expensive to produce and suboptimal for the downstream task. To alleviate these issues, we propose a model based on temporal point processes and variational autoencoders that learns to infer temporal attention between nodes by observing node communication. As temporal attention drives between-node feature propagation, using the dynamics of node interactions to learn this key component provides more flexibility while simultaneously avoiding issues associated with human-specified edges. We also propose a bilinear transformation layer for pairs of node features instead of concatenation, typically used in prior work, and demonstrate its superior performance in all cases. In experiments on two datasets in the dynamic link prediction task, our model often outperforms the baseline model that requires a human-specified graph. Moreover, our learned attention is semantically interpretable and infers connections similar to actual graphs.
User churn is an important issue in online services that threatens the health and profitability of services. Most of the previous works on churn prediction convert the problem into a binary classification task where the users are labeled as churned and non-churned. More recently, some works have tried to convert the user churn prediction problem into the prediction of user return time. In this approach which is more realistic in real world online services, at each time-step the model predicts the user return time instead of predicting a churn label. However, the previous works in this category suffer from lack of generality and require high computational complexity. In this paper, we introduce \emph{ChOracle}, an oracle that predicts the user churn by modeling the user return times to service by utilizing a combination of Temporal Point Processes and Recurrent Neural Networks. Moreover, we incorporate latent variables into the proposed recurrent neural network to model the latent user loyalty to the system. We also develop an efficient approximate variational algorithm for learning parameters of the proposed RNN by using back propagation through time. Finally, we demonstrate the superior performance of ChOracle on a wide variety of real world datasets.
We address the problem of combining sequence models of symbolic music with user defined constraints. For typical models this is non-trivial as only the conditional distribution of each symbol given the earlier symbols is available, while the constraints correspond to arbitrary times. Previously this has been addressed by assuming a discrete time model of fixed rhythm. We generalise to continuous time and arbitrary rhythm by introducing a simple, novel, and efficient particle filter scheme, applicable to general continuous time point processes. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that in comparison with a more traditional beam search baseline, the particle filter exhibits superior statistical properties and yields more agreeable results in an extensive human listening test experiment.
We develop constructions for exchangeable sequences of point processes that are rendered conditionally-i.i.d. negative binomial processes by a (possibly unknown) random measure called the base measure. Negative binomial processes are useful in Bayesian nonparametrics as models for random multisets, and in applications we are often interested in cases when the base measure itself is difficult to construct (for example when it has countably infinite support). While a finitary construction for an important case (corresponding to a beta process base measure) has appeared in the literature, our constructions generalize to any random base measure, requiring only an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli processes rendered conditionally-i.i.d. by the same underlying random base measure. Because finitary constructions for such Bernoulli processes are known for several different classes of random base measures--including generalizations of the beta process and hierarchies thereof--our results immediately provide constructions for negative binomial processes with a random base measure from any member of these classes.
The ability to forecast a set of likely yet diverse possible future behaviors of an agent (e.g., future trajectories of a pedestrian) is essential for safety-critical perception systems (e.g., autonomous vehicles). In particular, a set of possible future behaviors generated by the system must be diverse to account for all possible outcomes in order to take necessary safety precautions. It is not sufficient to maintain a set of the most likely future outcomes because the set may only contain perturbations of a single outcome. While generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) have been shown to be a powerful tool for learning a distribution over future trajectories, randomly drawn samples from the learned implicit likelihood model may not be diverse -- the likelihood model is derived from the training data distribution and the samples will concentrate around the major mode that has most data. In this work, we propose to learn a diversity sampling function (DSF) that generates a diverse and likely set of future trajectories. The DSF maps forecasting context features to a set of latent codes which can be decoded by a generative model (e.g., VAE) into a set of diverse trajectory samples. Concretely, the process of identifying the diverse set of samples is posed as a parameter estimation of the DSF. To learn the parameters of the DSF, the diversity of the trajectory samples is evaluated by a diversity loss based on a determinantal point process (DPP). Gradient descent is performed over the DSF parameters, which in turn move the latent codes of the sample set to find an optimal diverse and likely set of trajectories. Our method is a novel application of DPPs to optimize a set of items (trajectories) in continuous space. We demonstrate the diversity of the trajectories produced by our approach on both low-dimensional 2D trajectory data and high-dimensional human motion data.
``Composable core-sets'' are an efficient framework for solving optimization problems in massive data models. In this work, we consider efficient construction of composable core-sets for the determinant maximization problem. This can also be cast as the MAP inference task for determinantal point processes, that have recently gained a lot of interest for modeling diversity and fairness. The problem was recently studied in [IMOR'18], where they designed composable core-sets with the optimal approximation bound of $\tilde O(k)^k$. On the other hand, the more practical Greedy algorithm has been previously used in similar contexts. In this work, first we provide a theoretical approximation guarantee of $O(C^{k^2})$ for the Greedy algorithm in the context of composable core-sets; Further, we propose to use a Local Search based algorithm that while being still practical, achieves a nearly optimal approximation bound of $O(k)^{2k}$; Finally, we implement all three algorithms and show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm on standard data sets.
Predicting when and where events will occur in cities, like taxi pick-ups, crimes, and vehicle collisions, is a challenging and important problem with many applications in fields such as urban planning, transportation optimization and location-based marketing. Though many point processes have been proposed to model events in a continuous spatio-temporal space, none of them allow for the consideration of the rich contextual factors that affect event occurrence, such as weather, social activities, geographical characteristics, and traffic. In this paper, we propose \textsf{DMPP} (Deep Mixture Point Processes), a point process model for predicting spatio-temporal events with the use of rich contextual information; a key advance is its incorporation of the heterogeneous and high-dimensional context available in image and text data. Specifically, we design the intensity of our point process model as a mixture of kernels, where the mixture weights are modeled by a deep neural network. This formulation allows us to automatically learn the complex nonlinear effects of the contextual factors on event occurrence. At the same time, this formulation makes analytical integration over the intensity, which is required for point process estimation, tractable. We use real-world data sets from different domains to demonstrate that DMPP has better predictive performance than existing methods.
Data collection and labeling is one of the main challenges in employing machine learning algorithms in a variety of real-world applications with limited data. While active learning methods attempt to tackle this issue by labeling only the data samples that give high information, they generally suffer from large computational costs and are impractical in settings where data can be collected in parallel. Batch active learning methods attempt to overcome this computational burden by querying batches of samples at a time. To avoid redundancy between samples, previous works rely on some ad hoc combination of sample quality and diversity. In this paper, we present a new principled batch active learning method using Determinantal Point Processes, a repulsive point process that enables generating diverse batches of samples. We develop tractable algorithms to approximate the mode of a DPP distribution, and provide theoretical guarantees on the degree of approximation. We further demonstrate that an iterative greedy method for DPP maximization, which has lower computational costs but worse theoretical guarantees, still gives competitive results for batch active learning. Our experiments show the value of our methods on several datasets against state-of-the-art baselines.
We present a novel Neural Embedding Spatio-Temporal (NEST) point process model for spatio-temporal discrete event data and develop an efficient imitation learning (a type of reinforcement learning) based approach for model fitting. Despite the rapid development of one-dimensional temporal point processes for discrete event data, the study of spatial-temporal aspects of such data is relatively scarce. Our model captures complex spatio-temporal dependence between discrete events by carefully design a mixture of heterogeneous Gaussian diffusion kernels, whose parameters are parameterized by neural networks. This new kernel is the key that our model can capture intricate spatial dependence patterns and yet still lead to interpretable results as we examine maps of Gaussian diffusion kernel parameters. The imitation learning model fitting for the NEST is more robust than the maximum likelihood estimate. It directly measures the divergence between the empirical distributions between the training data and the model-generated data. Moreover, our imitation learning-based approach enjoys computational efficiency due to the explicit characterization of the reward function related to the likelihood function; furthermore, the likelihood function under our model enjoys tractable expression due to Gaussian kernel parameterization. Experiments based on real data show our method's good performance relative to the state-of-the-art and the good interpretability of NEST's result.
This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences in the first-order structures of spatial point patterns. The proposed approach leverages the kernel mean embedding in a novel way by introducing its approximate version tailored to spatial point processes. While the original embedding is infinite-dimensional and implicit, our approximate embedding is finite-dimensional and comes with explicit closed-form formulas. With its help we reduce the pattern comparison problem to the comparison of means in the Euclidean space. Hypothesis testing is based on conducting t-tests on each dimension of the embedding and combining the resulting p-values using one of the recently introduced p-value combination techniques. If desired, corresponding Bayes factors can be computed and averaged over all tests to quantify the evidence against the null. The main advantages of the proposed approach are that it can be applied to both single and replicated pattern comparisons and that neither bootstrap nor permutation procedures are needed to obtain or calibrate the p-values. Our experiments show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated; two applications to real world data are presented.
In experimental design, we are given $n$ vectors in $d$ dimensions, and our goal is to select $k\ll n$ of them to perform expensive measurements, e.g., to obtain labels/responses, for a linear regression task. Many statistical criteria have been proposed for choosing the optimal design, with popular choices including A- and D-optimality. If prior knowledge is given, typically in the form of a $d\times d$ precision matrix $\mathbf A$, then all of the criteria can be extended to incorporate that information via a Bayesian framework. In this paper, we demonstrate a new fundamental connection between Bayesian experimental design and determinantal point processes, the latter being widely used for sampling diverse subsets of data. We use this connection to develop new efficient algorithms for finding $(1+\epsilon)$-approximations of optimal designs under four optimality criteria: A, C, D and V. Our algorithms can achieve this when the desired subset size $k$ is $\Omega(\frac{d_{\mathbf A}}{\epsilon} + \frac{\log 1/\epsilon}{\epsilon^2})$, where $d_{\mathbf A}\leq d$ is the $\mathbf A$-effective dimension, which can often be much smaller than $d$. Our results offer direct improvements over a number of prior works, for both Bayesian and classical experimental design, in terms of algorithm efficiency, approximation quality, and range of applicable criteria.
The most important obstacles facing multi-document summarization include excessive redundancy in source descriptions and the looming shortage of training data. These obstacles prevent encoder-decoder models from being used directly, but optimization-based methods such as determinantal point processes (DPPs) are known to handle them well. In this paper we seek to strengthen a DPP-based method for extractive multi-document summarization by presenting a novel similarity measure inspired by capsule networks. The approach measures redundancy between a pair of sentences based on surface form and semantic information. We show that our DPP system with improved similarity measure performs competitively, outperforming strong summarization baselines on benchmark datasets. Our findings are particularly meaningful for summarizing documents created by multiple authors containing redundant yet lexically diverse expressions.
We study the complexity of sampling from a distribution over all index subsets of the set $\{1,...,n\}$ with the probability of a subset $S$ proportional to the determinant of the submatrix $\mathbf{L}_S$ of some $n\times n$ p.s.d. matrix $\mathbf{L}$, where $\mathbf{L}_S$ corresponds to the entries of $\mathbf{L}$ indexed by $S$. Known as a determinantal point process, this distribution is used in machine learning to induce diversity in subset selection. In practice, we often wish to sample multiple subsets $S$ with small expected size $k = E[|S|] \ll n$ from a very large matrix $\mathbf{L}$, so it is important to minimize the preprocessing cost of the procedure (performed once) as well as the sampling cost (performed repeatedly). For this purpose, we propose a new algorithm which, given access to $\mathbf{L}$, samples exactly from a determinantal point process while satisfying the following two properties: (1) its preprocessing cost is $n \cdot \text{poly}(k)$, i.e., sublinear in the size of $\mathbf{L}$, and (2) its sampling cost is $\text{poly}(k)$, i.e., independent of the size of $\mathbf{L}$. Prior to our results, state-of-the-art exact samplers required $O(n^3)$ preprocessing time and sampling time linear in $n$ or dependent on the spectral properties of $\mathbf{L}$. We also give a reduction which allows using our algorithm for exact sampling from cardinality constrained determinantal point processes with $n\cdot\text{poly}(k)$ time preprocessing.