Hindsight experience replay (HER) is a goal relabelling technique typically used with off-policy deep reinforcement learning algorithms to solve goal-oriented tasks; it is well suited to robotic manipulation tasks that deliver only sparse rewards. In HER, both trajectories and transitions are sampled uniformly for training. However, not all of the agent's experiences contribute equally to training, and so naive uniform sampling may lead to inefficient learning. In this paper, we propose diversity-based trajectory and goal selection with HER (DTGSH). Firstly, trajectories are sampled according to the diversity of the goal states as modelled by determinantal point processes (DPPs). Secondly, transitions with diverse goal states are selected from the trajectories by using k-DPPs. We evaluate DTGSH on five challenging robotic manipulation tasks in simulated robot environments, where we show that our method can learn more quickly and reach higher performance than other state-of-the-art approaches on all tasks.
Perception of time from sequentially acquired sensory inputs is rooted in everyday behaviors of individual organisms. Yet, most algorithms for time-series modeling fail to learn dynamics of random event timings directly from visual or audio inputs, requiring timing annotations during training that are usually unavailable for real-world applications. For instance, neuroscience perspectives on postdiction imply that there exist variable temporal ranges within which the incoming sensory inputs can affect the earlier perception, but such temporal ranges are mostly unannotated for real applications such as automatic speech recognition (ASR). In this paper, we present a probabilistic ordinary differential equation (ODE), called STochastic boundaRy ODE (STRODE), that learns both the timings and the dynamics of time series data without requiring any timing annotations during training. STRODE allows the usage of differential equations to sample from the posterior point processes, efficiently and analytically. We further provide theoretical guarantees on the learning of STRODE. Our empirical results show that our approach successfully infers event timings of time series data. Our method achieves competitive or superior performances compared to existing state-of-the-art methods for both synthetic and real-world datasets.
Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are often used to represent the sequence of events ordered as per the time of occurrence. Owing to their flexible nature, TPPs have been used to model different scenarios and have shown applicability in various real-world applications. While TPPs focus on modeling the event occurrence, Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) focuses on modeling the category/class of the event as well (termed as the marker). Research in MTPP has garnered substantial attention over the past few years, with an extensive focus on supervised algorithms. Despite the research focus, limited attention has been given to the challenging problem of developing solutions in semi-supervised settings, where algorithms have access to a mix of labeled and unlabeled data. This research proposes a novel algorithm for Semi-supervised Learning for Marked Temporal Point Processes (SSL-MTPP) applicable in such scenarios. The proposed SSL-MTPP algorithm utilizes a combination of labeled and unlabeled data for learning a robust marker prediction model. The proposed algorithm utilizes an RNN-based Encoder-Decoder module for learning effective representations of the time sequence. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm has been demonstrated via multiple protocols on the Retweet dataset, where the proposed SSL-MTPP demonstrates improved performance in comparison to the traditional supervised learning approach.
Attributed event sequences are commonly encountered in practice. A recent research line focuses on incorporating neural networks with the statistical model -- marked point processes, which is the conventional tool for dealing with attributed event sequences. Neural marked point processes possess good interpretability of probabilistic models as well as the representational power of neural networks. However, we find that performance of neural marked point processes is not always increasing as the network architecture becomes more complicated and larger, which is what we call the performance saturation phenomenon. This is due to the fact that the generalization error of neural marked point processes is determined by both the network representational ability and the model specification at the same time. Therefore we can draw two major conclusions: first, simple network structures can perform no worse than complicated ones for some cases; second, using a proper probabilistic assumption is as equally, if not more, important as improving the complexity of the network. Based on this observation, we propose a simple graph-based network structure called GCHP, which utilizes only graph convolutional layers, thus it can be easily accelerated by the parallel mechanism. We directly consider the distribution of interarrival times instead of imposing a specific assumption on the conditional intensity function, and propose to use a likelihood ratio loss with a moment matching mechanism for optimization and model selection. Experimental results show that GCHP can significantly reduce training time and the likelihood ratio loss with interarrival time probability assumptions can greatly improve the model performance.
Active learning aims to achieve greater accuracy with less training data by selecting the most useful data samples from which it learns. Single-criterion based methods (i.e., informativeness and representativeness based methods) are simple and efficient; however, they lack adaptability to different real-world scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a multiple-criteria based active learning algorithm, which incorporates three complementary criteria, i.e., informativeness, representativeness and diversity, to make appropriate selections in the active learning rounds under different data types. We consider the selection process as a Determinantal Point Process, which good balance among these criteria. We refine the query selection strategy by both selecting the hardest unlabeled data sample and biasing towards the classifiers that are more suitable for the current data distribution. In addition, we also consider the dependencies and relationships between these data points in data selection by means of centroidbased clustering approaches. Through evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our method performs significantly better and is more stable than other multiple-criteria based AL algorithms.
Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50 states in the U.S. and have exhibited evolutionary clustering and complex triggering patterns. It is essential to understand the complex spacetime intertwined propagation of this disease so that accurate prediction or smart external intervention can be carried out. In this paper, we model the propagation of the COVID-19 as spatio-temporal point processes and propose a generative and intensity-free model to track the spread of the disease. We further adopt a generative adversarial imitation learning framework to learn the model parameters. In comparison with the traditional likelihood-based learning methods, this imitation learning framework does not need to prespecify an intensity function, which alleviates the model-misspecification. Moreover, the adversarial learning procedure bypasses the difficult-to-evaluate integral involved in the likelihood evaluation, which makes the model inference more scalable with the data and variables. We showcase the dynamic learning performance on the COVID-19 confirmed cases in the U.S. and evaluate the social distancing policy based on the learned generative model.
Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and simple parametric models. Modern applications with complex event data require more general point process models that can incorporate contextual information of the events, called marks, besides the temporal and location information. Moreover, such applications often require non-stationary models to capture more complex spatio-temporal dependence. To tackle these challenges, a key question is to devise a versatile influence kernel in the point process model. In this paper, we introduce a novel and general neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel with high expressiveness for handling complex discrete events data while providing theoretical performance guarantees. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art on synthetic and real data.
Beam search is a go-to strategy for decoding neural sequence models. The algorithm can naturally be viewed as a subset optimization problem, albeit one where the corresponding set function does not reflect interactions between candidates. Empirically, this leads to sets often exhibiting high overlap, e.g., strings may differ by only a single word. Yet in use-cases that call for multiple solutions, a diverse or representative set is often desired. To address this issue, we propose a reformulation of beam search, which we call determinantal beam search. Determinantal beam search has a natural relationship to determinantal point processes (DPPs), models over sets that inherently encode intra-set interactions. By posing iterations in beam search as a series of subdeterminant maximization problems, we can turn the algorithm into a diverse subset selection process. In a case study, we use the string subsequence kernel to explicitly encourage n-gram coverage in text generated from a sequence model. We observe that our algorithm offers competitive performance against other diverse set generation strategies in the context of language generation, while providing a more general approach to optimizing for diversity.
Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to three key hypotheses: parametric, linear and homogeneous. Recent work has attempted to address these limitations separately. This work aims to overcome all three assumptions simultaneously by proposing the flexible state-switching Hawkes processes: a flexible, nonlinear and nonhomogeneous variant where a state process is incorporated to interact with the point processes. The proposed model empowers Hawkes processes to be applied to time-varying systems. For inference, we utilize the latent variable augmentation technique to design two efficient Bayesian inference algorithms: Gibbs sampler and mean-field variational inference, with analytical iterative updates to estimate the posterior. In experiments, our model achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art competitors.
Automatically detecting anomalies in event data can provide substantial value in domains such as healthcare, DevOps, and information security. In this paper, we frame the problem of detecting anomalous continuous-time event sequences as out-of-distribution (OoD) detection for temporal point processes (TPPs). First, we show how this problem can be approached using goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests. We then demonstrate the limitations of popular GoF statistics for TPPs and propose a new test that addresses these shortcomings. The proposed method can be combined with various TPP models, such as neural TPPs, and is easy to implement. In our experiments, we show that the proposed statistic excels at both traditional GoF testing, as well as at detecting anomalies in simulated and real-world data.
Engineering design tasks often require synthesizing new designs that meet desired performance requirements. The conventional design process, which requires iterative optimization and performance evaluation, is slow and dependent on initial designs. Past work has used conditional generative adversarial networks (cGANs) to enable direct design synthesis for given target performances. However, most existing cGANs are restricted to categorical conditions. Recent work on Continuous conditional GAN (CcGAN) tries to address this problem, but still faces two challenges: 1) it performs poorly on non-uniform performance distributions, and 2) the generated designs may not cover the entire design space. We propose a new model, named Performance Conditioned Diverse Generative Adversarial Network (PcDGAN), which introduces a singular vicinal loss combined with a Determinantal Point Processes (DPP) based loss function to enhance diversity. PcDGAN uses a new self-reinforcing score called the Lambert Log Exponential Transition Score (LLETS) for improved conditioning. Experiments on synthetic problems and a real-world airfoil design problem demonstrate that PcDGAN outperforms state-of-the-art GAN models and improves the conditioning likelihood by 69% in an airfoil generation task and up to 78% in synthetic conditional generation tasks and achieves greater design space coverage. The proposed method enables efficient design synthesis and design space exploration with applications ranging from CAD model generation to metamaterial selection.
We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked point processes. The framework can handle both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences with minimal tuning and without any pre-training. This contrasts with many parametric and non-parametric state-of-the-art methods that typically require pre-training and/or careful tuning, and can only handle exchangeable event sequences. The framework's competitive computational and predictive performance against other state-of-the-art methods are illustrated through real data experiments. Its attractiveness for large-scale applications is demonstrated through a case study involving all events occurring in an English Premier League season.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are well known models for diverse subset selection problems, including recommendation tasks, document summarization and image search. In this paper, we discuss a greedy deterministic adaptation of k-DPP. Deterministic algorithms are interesting for many applications, as they provide interpretability to the user by having no failure probability and always returning the same results. First, the ability of the method to yield low-rank approximations of kernel matrices is evaluated by comparing the accuracy of the Nystr\"om approximation on multiple datasets. Afterwards, we demonstrate the usefulness of the model on an image search task.
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process. Whereas previous work either relies on a less flexible parameterization of the model, or requires a large amount of data, our formulation allows for both a flexible model and learning when data are scarce. We continue the line of work of Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes, and our approach dispenses with the necessity of estimating a branching structure for the posterior, as we perform inference on an aggregated sum of Gaussian Processes. Efficient approximate Bayesian inference is achieved via data augmentation, and we describe a mean--field variational inference approach to learn the model parameters. To demonstrate the flexibility of the model we apply our methodology on data from three different domains and compare it to previously reported results.
Characterizing metastable neural dynamics in finite-size spiking networks remains a daunting challenge. We propose to address this challenge in the recently introduced replica-mean-field (RMF) limit. In this limit, networks are made of infinitely many replicas of the finite network of interest, but with randomized interactions across replicas. Such randomization renders certain excitatory networks fully tractable at the cost of neglecting activity correlations, but with explicit dependence on the finite size of the neural constituents. However, metastable dynamics typically unfold in networks with mixed inhibition and excitation. Here, we extend the RMF computational framework to point-process-based neural network models with exponential stochastic intensities, allowing for mixed excitation and inhibition. Within this setting, we show that metastable finite-size networks admit multistable RMF limits, which are fully characterized by stationary firing rates. Technically, these stationary rates are determined as the solutions of a set of delayed differential equations under certain regularity conditions that any physical solutions shall satisfy. We solve this original problem by combining the resolvent formalism and singular-perturbation theory. Importantly, we find that these rates specify probabilistic pseudo-equilibria which accurately capture the neural variability observed in the original finite-size network. We also discuss the emergence of metastability as a stochastic bifurcation, which can be interpreted as a static phase transition in the RMF limits. In turn, we expect to leverage the static picture of RMF limits to infer purely dynamical features of metastable finite-size networks, such as the transition rates between pseudo-equilibria.
While the predictive performance of modern statistical dependency parsers relies heavily on the availability of expensive expert-annotated treebank data, not all annotations contribute equally to the training of the parsers. In this paper, we attempt to reduce the number of labeled examples needed to train a strong dependency parser using batch active learning (AL). In particular, we investigate whether enforcing diversity in the sampled batches, using determinantal point processes (DPPs), can improve over their diversity-agnostic counterparts. Simulation experiments on an English newswire corpus show that selecting diverse batches with DPPs is superior to strong selection strategies that do not enforce batch diversity, especially during the initial stages of the learning process. Additionally, our diversityaware strategy is robust under a corpus duplication setting, where diversity-agnostic sampling strategies exhibit significant degradation.
Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact occurrence time of the events. It is currently not understood how to fit the Hawkes point processes to this kind of data. Its typical loss function (the point process log-likelihood) cannot be computed without exact event times. Furthermore, it does not have the independent increments property to use the Poisson likelihood. This work builds a novel point process, a set of tools, and approximations for fitting Hawkes processes within interval-censored data scenarios. First, we define the Mean Behavior Poisson process (MBPP), a novel Poisson process with a direct parameter correspondence to the popular self-exciting Hawkes process. We fit MBPP in the interval-censored setting using an interval-censored Poisson log-likelihood (IC-LL). We use the parameter equivalence to uncover the parameters of the associated Hawkes process. Second, we introduce two novel exogenous functions to distinguish the exogenous from the endogenous events. We propose the multi-impulse exogenous function - for when the exogenous events are observed as event time - and the latent homogeneous Poisson process exogenous function - for when the exogenous events are presented as interval-censored volumes. Third, we provide several approximation methods to estimate the intensity and compensator function of MBPP when no analytical solution exists. Fourth and finally, we connect the interval-censored loss of MBPP to a broader class of Bregman divergence-based functions. Using the connection, we show that the popularity estimation algorithm Hawkes Intensity Process (HIP) is a particular case of the MBPP. We verify our models through empirical testing on synthetic data and real-world data.
Topological data analysis (TDA) studies the shape patterns of data. Persistent homology is a widely used method in TDA that summarizes homological features of data at multiple scales and stores them in persistence diagrams (PDs). In this paper, we propose a random persistence diagram generator (RPDG) method that generates a sequence of random PDs from the ones produced by the data. RPDG is underpinned by a model based on pairwise interacting point processes, and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJ-MCMC) algorithm. A first example, which is based on a synthetic dataset, demonstrates the efficacy of RPDG and provides a comparison with another method for sampling PDs. A second example demonstrates the utility of RPDG to solve a materials science problem given a real dataset of small sample size.
As low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication systems are gaining increasing popularity, new theoretical methodologies are required to investigate such networks' performance at large. This is because deterministic and location-based models that have previously been applied to analyze satellite systems are typically restricted to support simulations only. In this paper, we derive analytical expressions for the downlink coverage probability and average data rate of generic LEO networks, regardless of the actual satellites' locality and their service area geometry. Our solution stems from stochastic geometry, which abstracts the generic networks into uniform binomial point processes. Applying the proposed model, we then study the performance of the networks as a function of key constellation design parameters. Finally, to fit the theoretical modeling more precisely to real deterministic constellations, we introduce the effective number of satellites as a parameter to compensate for the practical uneven distribution of satellites on different latitudes. In addition to deriving exact network performance metrics, the study reveals several guidelines for selecting the design parameters for future massive LEO constellations, e.g., the number of frequency channels and altitude.
Temporal point processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative models for continuous-time event sequences. Neural TPPs combine the fundamental ideas from point process literature with deep learning approaches, thus enabling construction of flexible and efficient models. The topic of neural TPPs has attracted significant attention in the recent years, leading to the development of numerous new architectures and applications for this class of models. In this review paper we aim to consolidate the existing body of knowledge on neural TPPs. Specifically, we focus on important design choices and general principles for defining neural TPP models. Next, we provide an overview of application areas commonly considered in the literature. We conclude this survey with the list of open challenges and important directions for future work in the field of neural TPPs.