Energy market rules should incentivize market participants to behave in a market and grid conform way. However, they can also provide incentives for undesired and unexpected strategies if the market design is flawed. Multi-agent Reinforcement learning (MARL) is a promising new approach to predicting the expected profit-maximizing behavior of energy market participants in simulation. However, reinforcement learning requires many interactions with the system to converge, and the power system environment often consists of extensive computations, e.g., optimal power flow (OPF) calculation for market clearing. To tackle this complexity, we provide a model of the energy market to a basic MARL algorithm in the form of a learned OPF approximation and explicit market rules. The learned OPF surrogate model makes an explicit solving of the OPF completely unnecessary. Our experiments demonstrate that the model additionally reduces training time by about one order of magnitude but at the cost of a slightly worse performance. Potential applications of our method are market design, more realistic modeling of market participants, and analysis of manipulative behavior.
We propose a novel approach to addressing two fundamental challenges in Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL): the computational expense of repeatedly finding a good policy in the learned model, and the objective mismatch between model fitting and policy computation. Our "lazy" method leverages a novel unified objective, Performance Difference via Advantage in Model, to capture the performance difference between the learned policy and expert policy under the true dynamics. This objective demonstrates that optimizing the expected policy advantage in the learned model under an exploration distribution is sufficient for policy computation, resulting in a significant boost in computational efficiency compared to traditional planning methods. Additionally, the unified objective uses a value moment matching term for model fitting, which is aligned with the model's usage during policy computation. We present two no-regret algorithms to optimize the proposed objective, and demonstrate their statistical and computational gains compared to existing MBRL methods through simulated benchmarks.
We consider the problem of quantifying uncertainty over expected cumulative rewards in model-based reinforcement learning. In particular, we focus on characterizing the variance over values induced by a distribution over MDPs. Previous work upper bounds the posterior variance over values by solving a so-called uncertainty Bellman equation, but the over-approximation may result in inefficient exploration. We propose a new uncertainty Bellman equation whose solution converges to the true posterior variance over values and explicitly characterizes the gap in previous work. Moreover, our uncertainty quantification technique is easily integrated into common exploration strategies and scales naturally beyond the tabular setting by using standard deep reinforcement learning architectures. Experiments in difficult exploration tasks, both in tabular and continuous control settings, show that our sharper uncertainty estimates improve sample-efficiency.
Model-based reinforcement learning uses models to plan, where the predictions and policies of an agent can be improved by using more computation without additional data from the environment, thereby improving sample efficiency. However, learning accurate estimates of the model is hard. Subsequently, the natural question is whether we can get similar benefits as planning with model-free methods. Experience replay is an essential component of many model-free algorithms enabling sample-efficient learning and stability by providing a mechanism to store past experiences for further reuse in the gradient computational process. Prior works have established connections between models and experience replay by planning with the latter. This involves increasing the number of times a mini-batch is sampled and used for updates at each step (amount of replay per step). We attempt to exploit this connection by doing a systematic study on the effect of varying amounts of replay per step in a well-known model-free algorithm: Deep Q-Network (DQN) in the Mountain Car environment. We empirically show that increasing replay improves DQN's sample efficiency, reduces the variation in its performance, and makes it more robust to change in hyperparameters. Altogether, this takes a step toward a better algorithm for deployment.
Deep reinforcement learning repeatedly succeeds in closed, well-defined domains such as games (Chess, Go, StarCraft). The next frontier is real-world scenarios, where setups are numerous and varied. For this, agents need to learn the underlying rules governing the environment, so as to robustly generalise to conditions that differ from those they were trained on. Model-based reinforcement learning algorithms, such as the highly successful MuZero, aim to accomplish this by learning a world model. However, leveraging a world model has not consistently shown greater generalisation capabilities compared to model-free alternatives. In this work, we propose improving the data efficiency and generalisation capabilities of MuZero by explicitly incorporating the symmetries of the environment in its world-model architecture. We prove that, so long as the neural networks used by MuZero are equivariant to a particular symmetry group acting on the environment, the entirety of MuZero's action-selection algorithm will also be equivariant to that group. We evaluate Equivariant MuZero on procedurally-generated MiniPacman and on Chaser from the ProcGen suite: training on a set of mazes, and then testing on unseen rotated versions, demonstrating the benefits of equivariance. Further, we verify that our performance improvements hold even when only some of the components of Equivariant MuZero obey strict equivariance, which highlights the robustness of our construction.
When a vehicle drives on the road, its behaviors will be affected by surrounding vehicles. Prediction and decision should not be considered as two separate stages because all vehicles make decisions interactively. This paper constructs the multi-vehicle driving scenario as a non-zero-sum game and proposes a novel game control framework, which consider prediction, decision and control as a whole. The mutual influence of interactions between vehicles is considered in this framework because decisions are made by Nash equilibrium strategy. To efficiently obtain the strategy, ADP, a model-based reinforcement learning method, is used to solve coupled Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. Driving performance is evaluated by tracking, efficiency, safety and comfort indices. Experiments show that our algorithm could drive perfectly by directly controlling acceleration and steering angle. Vehicles could learn interactive behaviors such as overtaking and pass. In summary, we propose a non-zero-sum game framework for modeling multi-vehicle driving, provide an effective way to solve the Nash equilibrium driving strategy, and validate at non-signalized intersections.
A key component of model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is a dynamics model that predicts the outcomes of actions. Errors in this predictive model can degrade the performance of model-based controllers, and complex Markov decision processes (MDPs) can present exceptionally difficult prediction problems. To mitigate this issue, we propose predictable MDP abstraction (PMA): instead of training a predictive model on the original MDP, we train a model on a transformed MDP with a learned action space that only permits predictable, easy-to-model actions, while covering the original state-action space as much as possible. As a result, model learning becomes easier and more accurate, which allows robust, stable model-based planning or model-based RL. This transformation is learned in an unsupervised manner, before any task is specified by the user. Downstream tasks can then be solved with model-based control in a zero-shot fashion, without additional environment interactions. We theoretically analyze PMA and empirically demonstrate that PMA leads to significant improvements over prior unsupervised model-based RL approaches in a range of benchmark environments. Our code and videos are available at https://seohong.me/projects/pma/
Probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is widely used in existing model-based reinforcement learning methods as it outperforms a single dynamics model in both asymptotic performance and sample efficiency. In this paper, we provide both practical and theoretical insights on the empirical success of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble through the lens of Lipschitz continuity. We find that, for a value function, the stronger the Lipschitz condition is, the smaller the gap between the true dynamics- and learned dynamics-induced Bellman operators is, thus enabling the converged value function to be closer to the optimal value function. Hence, we hypothesize that the key functionality of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is to regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value function using generated samples. To test this hypothesis, we devise two practical robust training mechanisms through computing the adversarial noise and regularizing the value network's spectral norm to directly regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value functions. Empirical results show that combined with our mechanisms, model-based RL algorithms with a single dynamics model outperform those with an ensemble of probabilistic dynamics models. These findings not only support the theoretical insight, but also provide a practical solution for developing computationally efficient model-based RL algorithms.
We propose a Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) algorithm named VF-MC-PILCO, specifically designed for application to mechanical systems where velocities cannot be directly measured. This circumstance, if not adequately considered, can compromise the success of MBRL approaches. To cope with this problem, we define a velocity-free state formulation which consists of the collection of past positions and inputs. Then, VF-MC-PILCO uses Gaussian Process Regression to model the dynamics of the velocity-free state and optimizes the control policy through a particle-based policy gradient approach. We compare VF-MC-PILCO with our previous MBRL algorithm, MC-PILCO4PMS, which handles the lack of direct velocity measurements by modeling the presence of velocity estimators. Results on both simulated (cart-pole and UR5 robot) and real mechanical systems (Furuta pendulum and a ball-and-plate rig) show that the two algorithms achieve similar results. Conveniently, VF-MC-PILCO does not require the design and implementation of state estimators, which can be a challenging and time-consuming activity to be performed by an expert user.
Directed Exploration is a crucial challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), especially when rewards are sparse. Information-directed sampling (IDS), which optimizes the information ratio, seeks to do so by augmenting regret with information gain. However, estimating information gain is computationally intractable or relies on restrictive assumptions which prohibit its use in many practical instances. In this work, we posit an alternative exploration incentive in terms of the integral probability metric (IPM) between a current estimate of the transition model and the unknown optimal, which under suitable conditions, can be computed in closed form with the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). Based on KSD, we develop a novel algorithm \algo: \textbf{STE}in information dir\textbf{E}cted exploration for model-based \textbf{R}einforcement Learn\textbf{ING}. To enable its derivation, we develop fundamentally new variants of KSD for discrete conditional distributions. {We further establish that {\algo} archives sublinear Bayesian regret, improving upon prior learning rates of information-augmented MBRL.} Experimentally, we show that the proposed algorithm is computationally affordable and outperforms several prior approaches.
The reinforcement learning research area contains a wide range of methods for solving the problems of intelligent agent control. Despite the progress that has been made, the task of creating a highly autonomous agent is still a significant challenge. One potential solution to this problem is intrinsic motivation, a concept derived from developmental psychology. This review considers the existing methods for determining intrinsic motivation based on the world model obtained by the agent. We propose a systematic approach to current research in this field, which consists of three categories of methods, distinguished by the way they utilize a world model in the agent's components: complementary intrinsic reward, exploration policy, and intrinsically motivated goals. The proposed unified framework describes the architecture of agents using a world model and intrinsic motivation to improve learning. The potential for developing new techniques in this area of research is also examined.
Learning models of the environment from pure interaction is often considered an essential component of building lifelong reinforcement learning agents. However, the common practice in model-based reinforcement learning is to learn models that model every aspect of the agent's environment, regardless of whether they are important in coming up with optimal decisions or not. In this paper, we argue that such models are not particularly well-suited for performing scalable and robust planning in lifelong reinforcement learning scenarios and we propose new kinds of models that only model the relevant aspects of the environment, which we call "minimal value-equivalent partial models". After providing a formal definition for these models, we provide theoretical results demonstrating the scalability advantages of performing planning with such models and then perform experiments to empirically illustrate our theoretical results. Then, we provide some useful heuristics on how to learn these kinds of models with deep learning architectures and empirically demonstrate that models learned in such a way can allow for performing planning that is robust to distribution shifts and compounding model errors. Overall, both our theoretical and empirical results suggest that minimal value-equivalent partial models can provide significant benefits to performing scalable and robust planning in lifelong reinforcement learning scenarios.
With the fast development of quantitative portfolio optimization in financial engineering, lots of AI-based algorithmic trading strategies have demonstrated promising results, among which reinforcement learning begins to manifest competitive advantages. However, the environment from real financial markets is complex and hard to be fully simulated, considering the observation of abrupt transitions, unpredictable hidden causal factors, heavy tail properties and so on. Thus, in this paper, first, we adopt a heavy-tailed preserving normalizing flows to simulate high-dimensional joint probability of the complex trading environment and develop a model-based reinforcement learning framework to better understand the intrinsic mechanisms of quantitative online trading. Second, we experiment with various stocks from three different financial markets (Dow, NASDAQ and S&P) and show that among these three financial markets, Dow gets the best performance based on various evaluation metrics under our back-testing system. Especially, our proposed method is able to mitigate the impact of unpredictable financial market crises during the COVID-19 pandemic period, resulting in a lower maximum drawdown. Third, we also explore the explanation of our RL algorithm. (1), we utilize the pattern causality method to study the interactive relation among different stocks in the environment. (2), We analyze the dynamic loss and actor loss to ensure the convergence of our strategies. (3), by visualizing high dimensional state transition data comparisons from real and virtual buffers with t-SNE, we uncover some effective patterns of better portfolio optimization strategies. (4), we also utilize eigenvalue analysis to study the convergence properties of the environmen's model.
In Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL), model learning is critical since an inaccurate model can bias policy learning via generating misleading samples. However, learning an accurate model can be difficult since the policy is continually updated and the induced distribution over visited states used for model learning shifts accordingly. Prior methods alleviate this issue by quantifying the uncertainty of model-generated samples. However, these methods only quantify the uncertainty passively after the samples were generated, rather than foreseeing the uncertainty before model trajectories fall into those highly uncertain regions. The resulting low-quality samples can induce unstable learning targets and hinder the optimization of the policy. Moreover, while being learned to minimize one-step prediction errors, the model is generally used to predict for multiple steps, leading to a mismatch between the objectives of model learning and model usage. To this end, we propose \emph{Plan To Predict} (P2P), an MBRL framework that treats the model rollout process as a sequential decision making problem by reversely considering the model as a decision maker and the current policy as the dynamics. In this way, the model can quickly adapt to the current policy and foresee the multi-step future uncertainty when generating trajectories. Theoretically, we show that the performance of P2P can be guaranteed by approximately optimizing a lower bound of the true environment return. Empirical results demonstrate that P2P achieves state-of-the-art performance on several challenging benchmark tasks.
Model based reinforcement learning has proven to be more sample efficient than model free methods. On the other hand, the construction of a dynamics model in model based reinforcement learning has increased complexity. Data processing tasks in radio astronomy are such situations where the original problem which is being solved by reinforcement learning itself is the creation of a model. Fortunately, many methods based on heuristics or signal processing do exist to perform the same tasks and we can leverage them to propose the best action to take, or in other words, to provide a `hint'. We propose to use `hints' generated by the environment as an aid to the reinforcement learning process mitigating the complexity of model construction. We modify the soft actor critic algorithm to use hints and use the alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm with inequality constraints to train the agent. Results in several environments show that we get the increased sample efficiency by using hints as compared to model free methods.
Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) has been widely adapted due to its sample efficiency. However, existing worst-case regret analysis typically requires optimistic planning, which is not realistic in general. In contrast, motivated by the theory, empirical study utilizes ensemble of models, which achieve state-of-the-art performance on various testing environments. Such deviation between theory and empirical study leads us to question whether randomized model ensemble guarantee optimism, and hence the optimal worst-case regret? This paper partially answers such question from the perspective of reward randomization, a scarcely explored direction of exploration with MBRL. We show that under the kernelized linear regulator (KNR) model, reward randomization guarantees a partial optimism, which further yields a near-optimal worst-case regret in terms of the number of interactions. We further extend our theory to generalized function approximation and identified conditions for reward randomization to attain provably efficient exploration. Correspondingly, we propose concrete examples of efficient reward randomization. To the best of our knowledge, our analysis establishes the first worst-case regret analysis on randomized MBRL with function approximation.
Solving real-world optimal control problems are challenging tasks, as the complex, high-dimensional system dynamics are usually unrevealed to the decision maker. It is thus hard to find the optimal control actions numerically. To deal with such modeling and computation challenges, in this paper, we integrate Neural Networks with the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (PMP), and propose a sample efficient framework NN-PMP-Gradient. The resulting controller can be implemented for systems with unknown and complex dynamics. By taking an iterative approach, the proposed framework not only utilizes the accurate surrogate models parameterized by neural networks, it also efficiently recovers the optimality conditions along with the optimal action sequences via PMP conditions. Numerical simulations on Linear Quadratic Regulator, energy arbitrage of grid-connected lossy battery, control of single pendulum, and two MuJoCo locomotion tasks demonstrate our proposed NN-PMP-Gradient is a general and versatile computation tool for finding optimal solutions. And compared with the widely applied model-free and model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, our NN-PMP-Gradient achieves higher sample-efficiency and performance in terms of control objectives.
We study model-based reinforcement learning (RL) for episodic Markov decision processes (MDP) whose transition probability is parametrized by an unknown transition core with features of state and action. Despite much recent progress in analyzing algorithms in the linear MDP setting, the understanding of more general transition models is very restrictive. In this paper, we establish a provably efficient RL algorithm for the MDP whose state transition is given by a multinomial logistic model. To balance the exploration-exploitation trade-off, we propose an upper confidence bound-based algorithm. We show that our proposed algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(d \sqrt{H^3 T})$ regret bound where $d$ is the dimension of the transition core, $H$ is the horizon, and $T$ is the total number of steps. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model-based RL algorithm with multinomial logistic function approximation with provable guarantees. We also comprehensively evaluate our proposed algorithm numerically and show that it consistently outperforms the existing methods, hence achieving both provable efficiency and practical superior performance.
Deep latent variable models have achieved significant empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning (RL) due to their expressiveness in modeling complex transition dynamics. On the other hand, it remains unclear theoretically and empirically how latent variable models may facilitate learning, planning, and exploration to improve the sample efficiency of RL. In this paper, we provide a representation view of the latent variable models for state-action value functions, which allows both tractable variational learning algorithm and effective implementation of the optimism/pessimism principle in the face of uncertainty for exploration. In particular, we propose a computationally efficient planning algorithm with UCB exploration by incorporating kernel embeddings of latent variable models. Theoretically, we establish the sample complexity of the proposed approach in the online and offline settings. Empirically, we demonstrate superior performance over current state-of-the-art algorithms across various benchmarks.
Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) is commonly used for planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) where a centralized approach is typically utilized to update the sampling distribution based on only the top-$k$ operation's results on samples. In this paper, we show that such a centralized approach makes CEM vulnerable to local optima, thus impairing its sample efficiency. To tackle this issue, we propose Decentralized CEM (DecentCEM), a simple but effective improvement over classical CEM, by using an ensemble of CEM instances running independently from one another, and each performing a local improvement of its own sampling distribution. We provide both theoretical and empirical analysis to demonstrate the effectiveness of this simple decentralized approach. We empirically show that, compared to the classical centralized approach using either a single or even a mixture of Gaussian distributions, our DecentCEM finds the global optimum much more consistently thus improves the sample efficiency. Furthermore, we plug in our DecentCEM in the planning problem of MBRL, and evaluate our approach in several continuous control environments, with comparison to the state-of-art CEM based MBRL approaches (PETS and POPLIN). Results show sample efficiency improvement by simply replacing the classical CEM module with our DecentCEM module, while only sacrificing a reasonable amount of computational cost. Lastly, we conduct ablation studies for more in-depth analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/vincentzhang/decentCEM