We consider reinforcement learning for continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs) in the infinite-horizon, average-reward setting. In contrast to discrete-time MDPs, a continuous-time process moves to a state and stays there for a random holding time after an action is taken. With unknown transition probabilities and rates of exponential holding times, we derive instance-dependent regret lower bounds that are logarithmic in the time horizon. Moreover, we design a learning algorithm and establish a finite-time regret bound that achieves the logarithmic growth rate. Our analysis builds upon upper confidence reinforcement learning, a delicate estimation of the mean holding times, and stochastic comparison of point processes.
Networks and temporal point processes serve as fundamental building blocks for modeling complex dynamic relational data in various domains. We propose the latent space Hawkes (LSH) model, a novel generative model for continuous-time networks of relational events, using a latent space representation for nodes. We model relational events between nodes using mutually exciting Hawkes processes with baseline intensities dependent upon the distances between the nodes in the latent space and sender and receiver specific effects. We demonstrate that our proposed LSH model can replicate many features observed in real temporal networks including reciprocity and transitivity, while also achieving superior prediction accuracy and providing more interpretable fits than existing models.
In vehicle-to-all (V2X) communications, roadside units (RSUs) play an essential role in connecting various network devices. In some cases, users may not be well-served by RSUs due to congestion, attenuation, or interference. In these cases, vehicular relays associated with RSUs can be used to serve those users. This paper uses stochastic geometry to model and analyze a spatially correlated heterogeneous vehicular network where both RSUs and vehicular relays serve network users such as pedestrians or other vehicles. We present an analytical model where the spatial correlation between roads, RSUs, relays, and users is systematically modeled via Cox point processes. Assuming users are associated with either RSUs or relays, we derive the association probability and the coverage probability of the typical user. Then, we derive the user throughput by considering interactions of links unique to the proposed network. This paper gives practical insights into designing spatially correlated vehicular networks assisted by vehicle relays. For instance, we express the network performance such as the user association, SIR coverage probability, and the network throughput as the functions of network key geometric variables. In practice, this helps one to optimize the network so as to achieve ultra reliability or maximum user throughput of a spatially correlated vehicular networks by varying key aspects such as the relay density or the bandwidth for relays.
With the ever-growing communication demands and the unceasing miniaturization of mobile devices, the Internet of Things is expanding the amount of mobile terminals to an enormous level. To deal with such numbers of communication data, plenty of base stations (BSs) need to be deployed. However, denser deployments of heterogeneous networks (HetNets) lead to more frequent handovers, which could increase network burden and degrade the users experience, especially in traffic hotspot areas. In this paper, we develop a unified framework to investigate the handover performance of wireless networks with traffic hotspots. Using the stochastic geometry, we derive the theoretical expressions of average distances and handover metrics in HetNets, where the correlations between users and BSs in hotspots are captured. Specifically, the distributions of macro cells are modeled as independent Poisson point processes (PPPs), and the two tiers of small cells outside and inside the hotspots are modeled as PPP and Poisson cluster process (PCP) separately. A modified random waypoint (MRWP) model is also proposed to eliminate the density wave phenomenon in traditional models and to increase the accuracy of handover decision. By combining the PCP and MRWP model, the distributions of distances from a typical terminal to the BSs in different tiers are derived. Afterwards, we derive the expressions of average distances from a typical terminal to different BSs, and reveal that the handover rate, handover failure rate, and ping-pong rate are deduced as the functions of BS density, scattering variance of clustered small cell, user velocity, and threshold of triggered time. Simulation results verify the accuracy of the proposed analytical model and closed-form theoretical expressions.
We design fast algorithms for repeatedly sampling from strongly Rayleigh distributions, which include random spanning tree distributions and determinantal point processes. For a graph $G=(V, E)$, we show how to approximately sample uniformly random spanning trees from $G$ in $\widetilde{O}(\lvert V\rvert)$ time per sample after an initial $\widetilde{O}(\lvert E\rvert)$ time preprocessing. For a determinantal point process on subsets of size $k$ of a ground set of $n$ elements, we show how to approximately sample in $\widetilde{O}(k^\omega)$ time after an initial $\widetilde{O}(nk^{\omega-1})$ time preprocessing, where $\omega<2.372864$ is the matrix multiplication exponent. We even improve the state of the art for obtaining a single sample from determinantal point processes, from the prior runtime of $\widetilde{O}(\min\{nk^2, n^\omega\})$ to $\widetilde{O}(nk^{\omega-1})$. In our main technical result, we achieve the optimal limit on domain sparsification for strongly Rayleigh distributions. In domain sparsification, sampling from a distribution $\mu$ on $\binom{[n]}{k}$ is reduced to sampling from related distributions on $\binom{[t]}{k}$ for $t\ll n$. We show that for strongly Rayleigh distributions, we can can achieve the optimal $t=\widetilde{O}(k)$. Our reduction involves sampling from $\widetilde{O}(1)$ domain-sparsified distributions, all of which can be produced efficiently assuming convenient access to approximate overestimates for marginals of $\mu$. Having access to marginals is analogous to having access to the mean and covariance of a continuous distribution, or knowing "isotropy" for the distribution, the key assumption behind the Kannan-Lov\'asz-Simonovits (KLS) conjecture and optimal samplers based on it. We view our result as a moral analog of the KLS conjecture and its consequences for sampling, for discrete strongly Rayleigh measures.
Graphs representation learning has been a very active research area in recent years. The goal of graph representation learning is to generate graph representation vectors that capture the structure and features of large graphs accurately. This is especially important because the quality of the graph representation vectors will affect the performance of these vectors in downstream tasks such as node classification, link prediction and anomaly detection. Many techniques are proposed for generating effective graph representation vectors. Two of the most prevalent categories of graph representation learning are graph embedding methods without using graph neural nets (GNN), which we denote as non-GNN based graph embedding methods, and graph neural nets (GNN) based methods. Non-GNN graph embedding methods are based on techniques such as random walks, temporal point processes and neural network learning methods. GNN-based methods, on the other hand, are the application of deep learning on graph data. In this survey, we provide an overview of these two categories and cover the current state-of-the-art methods for both static and dynamic graphs. Finally, we explore some open and ongoing research directions for future work.
Determinantal points processes are a promising but relatively under-developed tool in machine learning and statistical modelling, being the canonical statistical example of distributions with repulsion. While their mathematical formulation is elegant and appealing, their practical use, such as simply sampling from them, is far from straightforward.Recent work has shown how a particular type of determinantal point process defined on the compact multidimensional space $[-1, 1]^d$ can be practically sampled and further shown how such samples can be used to improve Monte Carlo integration.This work extends those results to a new determinantal point process on $\mathbb{R}^d$ by constructing a novel sampling scheme. Samples from this new process are shown to be useful in Monte Carlo integration against Gaussian measure, which is particularly relevant in machine learning applications.
Temporal networks allow representing connections between objects while incorporating the temporal dimension. While static network models can capture unchanging topological regularities, they often fail to model the effects associated with the causal generative process of the network that occurs in time. Hence, exploiting the temporal aspect of networks has been the focus of many recent studies. In this context, we propose a new framework for generative models of continuous-time temporal networks. We assume that the activation of the edges in a temporal network is driven by a specified temporal point process. This approach allows to directly model the waiting time between events while incorporating time-varying history-based features as covariates in the predictions. Coupled with a thinning algorithm designed for the simulation of point processes, SimHawNet enables simulation of the evolution of temporal networks in continuous time. Finally, we introduce a comprehensive evaluation framework to assess the performance of such an approach, in which we demonstrate that SimHawNet successfully simulates the evolution of networks with very different generative processes and achieves performance comparable to the state of the art, while being significantly faster.
There has been a recent surge in learning generative models for graphs. While impressive progress has been made on static graphs, work on generative modeling of temporal graphs is at a nascent stage with significant scope for improvement. First, existing generative models do not scale with either the time horizon or the number of nodes. Second, existing techniques are transductive in nature and thus do not facilitate knowledge transfer. Finally, due to relying on one-to-one node mapping from source to the generated graph, existing models leak node identity information and do not allow up-scaling/down-scaling the source graph size. In this paper, we bridge these gaps with a novel generative model called TIGGER. TIGGER derives its power through a combination of temporal point processes with auto-regressive modeling enabling both transductive and inductive variants. Through extensive experiments on real datasets, we establish TIGGER generates graphs of superior fidelity, while also being up to 3 orders of magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art.
Recent developments in predictive modeling using marked temporal point processes (MTPP) have enabled an accurate characterization of several real-world applications involving continuous-time event sequences (CTESs). However, the retrieval problem of such sequences remains largely unaddressed in literature. To tackle this, we propose NEUROSEQRET which learns to retrieve and rank a relevant set of continuous-time event sequences for a given query sequence, from a large corpus of sequences. More specifically, NEUROSEQRET first applies a trainable unwarping function on the query sequence, which makes it comparable with corpus sequences, especially when a relevant query-corpus pair has individually different attributes. Next, it feeds the unwarped query sequence and the corpus sequence into MTPP guided neural relevance models. We develop two variants of the relevance model which offer a tradeoff between accuracy and efficiency. We also propose an optimization framework to learn binary sequence embeddings from the relevance scores, suitable for the locality-sensitive hashing leading to a significant speedup in returning top-K results for a given query sequence. Our experiments with several datasets show the significant accuracy boost of NEUROSEQRET beyond several baselines, as well as the efficacy of our hashing mechanism.
A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily life, and it is important to train the temporal dynamics and solve two different prediction problems, time and type predictions. Especially, deep neural network based models have outperformed the statistical models, such as Hawkes processes and Poisson processes. However, many existing approaches overfit to specific events, instead of learning and predicting various event types. Therefore, such approaches could not cope with the modified relationships between events and fail to predict the intensity functions of temporal point processes very well. In this paper, to solve these problems, we propose a variational neural temporal point process (VNTPP). We introduce the inference and the generative networks, and train a distribution of latent variable to deal with stochastic property on deep neural network. The intensity functions are computed using the distribution of latent variable so that we can predict event types and the arrival times of the events more accurately. We empirically demonstrate that our model can generalize the representations of various event types. Moreover, we show quantitatively and qualitatively that our model outperforms other deep neural network based models and statistical processes on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Continual learning needs to overcome catastrophic forgetting of the past. Memory replay of representative old training samples has been shown as an effective solution, and achieves the state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. However, existing work is mainly built on a small memory buffer containing a few original data, which cannot fully characterize the old data distribution. In this work, we propose memory replay with data compression (MRDC) to reduce the storage cost of old training samples and thus increase their amount that can be stored in the memory buffer. Observing that the trade-off between the quality and quantity of compressed data is highly nontrivial for the efficacy of memory replay, we propose a novel method based on determinantal point processes (DPPs) to efficiently determine an appropriate compression quality for currently-arrived training samples. In this way, using a naive data compression algorithm with a properly selected quality can largely boost recent strong baselines by saving more compressed data in a limited storage space. We extensively validate this across several benchmarks of class-incremental learning and in a realistic scenario of object detection for autonomous driving.
We develop and justify methodology to consistently test for long-horizon return predictability based on realized variance. To accomplish this, we propose a parametric transaction-level model for the continuous-time log price process based on a pure jump point process. The model determines the returns and realized variance at any level of aggregation with properties shown to be consistent with the stylized facts in the empirical finance literature. Under our model, the long-memory parameter propagates unchanged from the transaction-level drift to the calendar-time returns and the realized variance, leading endogenously to a balanced predictive regression equation. We propose an asymptotic framework using power-law aggregation in the predictive regression. Within this framework, we propose a hypothesis test for long horizon return predictability which is asymptotically correctly sized and consistent.
We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-world problem.
Recent years have seen an increased interest in the application of methods and techniques commonly associated with machine learning and artificial intelligence to spatial statistics. Here, in a celebration of the ten-year anniversary of the journal Spatial Statistics, we bring together normalizing flows, commonly used for density function estimation in machine learning, and spherical point processes, a topic of particular interest to the journal's readership, to present a new approach for modeling non-homogeneous Poisson process intensity functions on the sphere. The central idea of this framework is to build, and estimate, a flexible bijective map that transforms the underlying intensity function of interest on the sphere into a simpler, reference, intensity function, also on the sphere. Map estimation can be done efficiently using automatic differentiation and stochastic gradient descent, and uncertainty quantification can be done straightforwardly via nonparametric bootstrap. We investigate the viability of the proposed method in a simulation study, and illustrate its use in a proof-of-concept study where we model the intensity of cyclone events in the North Pacific Ocean. Our experiments reveal that normalizing flows present a flexible and straightforward way to model intensity functions on spheres, but that their potential to yield a good fit depends on the architecture of the bijective map, which can be difficult to establish in practice.
A determinantal point process (DPP) on a collection of $M$ items is a model, parameterized by a symmetric kernel matrix, that assigns a probability to every subset of those items. Recent work shows that removing the kernel symmetry constraint, yielding nonsymmetric DPPs (NDPPs), can lead to significant predictive performance gains for machine learning applications. However, existing work leaves open the question of scalable NDPP sampling. There is only one known DPP sampling algorithm, based on Cholesky decomposition, that can directly apply to NDPPs as well. Unfortunately, its runtime is cubic in $M$, and thus does not scale to large item collections. In this work, we first note that this algorithm can be transformed into a linear-time one for kernels with low-rank structure. Furthermore, we develop a scalable sublinear-time rejection sampling algorithm by constructing a novel proposal distribution. Additionally, we show that imposing certain structural constraints on the NDPP kernel enables us to bound the rejection rate in a way that depends only on the kernel rank. In our experiments we compare the speed of all of these samplers for a variety of real-world tasks.
The explosion of digital information and the growing involvement of people in social networks led to enormous research activity to develop methods that can extract meaningful information from interaction data. Commonly, interactions are represented by edges in a network or a graph, which implicitly assumes that the interactions are pairwise and static. However, real-world interactions deviate from these assumptions: (i) interactions can be multi-way, involving more than two nodes or individuals (e.g., family relationships, protein interactions), and (ii) interactions can change over a period of time (e.g., change of opinions and friendship status). While pairwise interactions have been studied in a dynamic network setting and multi-way interactions have been studied using hypergraphs in static networks, there exists no method, at present, that can predict multi-way interactions or hyperedges in dynamic settings. Existing related methods cannot answer temporal queries like what type of interaction will occur next and when it will occur. This paper proposes a temporal point process model for hyperedge prediction to address these problems. Our proposed model uses dynamic representation learning techniques for nodes in a neural point process framework to forecast hyperedges. We present several experimental results and set benchmark results. As far as our knowledge, this is the first work that uses the temporal point process to forecast hyperedges in dynamic networks.
Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art performance in predicting event-times. However, neural point process models lack a good uncertainty quantification capability on predictions. A proper uncertainty quantification over event modeling will help in better decision making for many practical applications. Therefore, we propose a novel point process model, Bayesian Neural Hawkes process (BNHP) which leverages uncertainty modelling capability of Bayesian models and generalization capability of the neural networks to model event occurrence times. We augment the model with spatio-temporal modeling capability where it can consider uncertainty over predicted time and location of the events. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets show that BNHP significantly improves prediction performance and uncertainty quantification for modelling events.
The quantitative analysis of non-invasive electrophysiology signals from electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) boils down to the identification of temporal patterns such as evoked responses, transient bursts of neural oscillations but also blinks or heartbeats for data cleaning. Several works have shown that these patterns can be extracted efficiently in an unsupervised way, e.g., using Convolutional Dictionary Learning. This leads to an event-based description of the data. Given these events, a natural question is to estimate how their occurrences are modulated by certain cognitive tasks and experimental manipulations. To address it, we propose a point process approach. While point processes have been used in neuroscience in the past, in particular for single cell recordings (spike trains), techniques such as Convolutional Dictionary Learning make them amenable to human studies based on EEG/MEG signals. We develop a novel statistical point process model-called driven temporal point processes (DriPP)-where the intensity function of the point process model is linked to a set of point processes corresponding to stimulation events. We derive a fast and principled expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of this model. Simulations reveal that model parameters can be identified from long enough signals. Results on standard MEG datasets demonstrate that our methodology reveals event-related neural responses-both evoked and induced-and isolates non-task specific temporal patterns.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a cornerstone of machine learning. When the number N of data items is large, SGD relies on constructing an unbiased estimator of the gradient of the empirical risk using a small subset of the original dataset, called a minibatch. Default minibatch construction involves uniformly sampling a subset of the desired size, but alternatives have been explored for variance reduction. In particular, experimental evidence suggests drawing minibatches from determinantal point processes (DPPs), distributions over minibatches that favour diversity among selected items. However, like in recent work on DPPs for coresets, providing a systematic and principled understanding of how and why DPPs help has been difficult. In this work, we contribute an orthogonal polynomial-based DPP paradigm for minibatch sampling in SGD. Our approach leverages the specific data distribution at hand, which endows it with greater sensitivity and power over existing data-agnostic methods. We substantiate our method via a detailed theoretical analysis of its convergence properties, interweaving between the discrete data set and the underlying continuous domain. In particular, we show how specific DPPs and a string of controlled approximations can lead to gradient estimators with a variance that decays faster with the batchsize than under uniform sampling. Coupled with existing finite-time guarantees for SGD on convex objectives, this entails that, DPP minibatches lead to a smaller bound on the mean square approximation error than uniform minibatches. Moreover, our estimators are amenable to a recent algorithm that directly samples linear statistics of DPPs (i.e., the gradient estimator) without sampling the underlying DPP (i.e., the minibatch), thereby reducing computational overhead. We provide detailed synthetic as well as real data experiments to substantiate our theoretical claims.