En route travel time estimation (ER-TTE) focuses on predicting the travel time of the remaining route. Existing ER-TTE methods always make re-estimation which significantly hinders real-time performance, especially when faced with the computational demands of simultaneous user requests. This results in delays and reduced responsiveness in ER-TTE services. We propose a general efficient framework U-ERTTE combining an Uncertainty-Guided Decision mechanism (UGD) and Fine-Tuning with Meta-Learning (FTML) to address these challenges. UGD quantifies the uncertainty and provides confidence intervals for the entire route. It selectively re-estimates only when the actual travel time deviates from the predicted confidence intervals, thereby optimizing the efficiency of ER-TTE. To ensure the accuracy of confidence intervals and accurate predictions that need to re-estimate, FTML is employed to train the model, enabling it to learn general driving patterns and specific features to adapt to specific tasks. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real datasets demonstrate that the U-ERTTE framework significantly enhances inference speed and throughput while maintaining high effectiveness. Our code is available at https://github.com/shenzekai/U-ERTTE
Effective urban traffic management is vital for sustainable city development, relying on intelligent systems with machine learning tasks such as traffic flow prediction and travel time estimation. Traditional approaches usually focus on static road network and trajectory representation learning, and overlook the dynamic nature of traffic states and trajectories, which is crucial for downstream tasks. To address this gap, we propose TRACK, a novel framework to bridge traffic state and trajectory data for dynamic road network and trajectory representation learning. TRACK leverages graph attention networks (GAT) to encode static and spatial road segment features, and introduces a transformer-based model for trajectory representation learning. By incorporating transition probabilities from trajectory data into GAT attention weights, TRACK captures dynamic spatial features of road segments. Meanwhile, TRACK designs a traffic transformer encoder to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of road segments from traffic state data. To further enhance dynamic representations, TRACK proposes a co-attentional transformer encoder and a trajectory-traffic state matching task. Extensive experiments on real-life urban traffic datasets demonstrate the superiority of TRACK over state-of-the-art baselines. Case studies confirm TRACK's ability to capture spatial-temporal dynamics effectively.
Accurate travel time estimation is essential for navigation and itinerary planning. While existing research employs probabilistic modeling to assess travel time uncertainty and account for correlations between multiple trips, modeling the temporal variability of multi-trip travel time distributions remains a significant challenge. Capturing the evolution of joint distributions requires large, well-organized datasets; however, real-world trip data are often temporally sparse and spatially unevenly distributed. To address this issue, we propose SPTTE, a spatiotemporal probabilistic framework that models the evolving joint distribution of multi-trip travel times by formulating the estimation task as a spatiotemporal stochastic process regression problem with fragmented observations. SPTTE incorporates an RNN-based temporal Gaussian process parameterization to regularize sparse observations and capture temporal dependencies. Additionally, it employs a prior-based heterogeneity smoothing strategy to correct unreliable learning caused by unevenly distributed trips, effectively modeling temporal variability under sparse and uneven data distributions. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that SPTTE outperforms state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic methods by over 10.13%. Ablation studies and visualizations further confirm the effectiveness of the model components.
Uncertainty quantification in travel time estimation (TTE) aims to estimate the confidence interval for travel time, given the origin (O), destination (D), and departure time (T). Accurately quantifying this uncertainty requires generating the most likely path and assessing travel time uncertainty along the path. This involves two main challenges: 1) Predicting a path that aligns with the ground truth, and 2) modeling the impact of travel time in each segment on overall uncertainty under varying conditions. We propose DutyTTE to address these challenges. For the first challenge, we introduce a deep reinforcement learning method to improve alignment between the predicted path and the ground truth, providing more accurate travel time information from road segments to improve TTE. For the second challenge, we propose a mixture of experts guided uncertainty quantification mechanism to better capture travel time uncertainty for each segment under varying contexts. Additionally, we calibrate our results using Hoeffding's upper-confidence bound to provide statistical guarantees for the estimated confidence intervals. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method.
Travel time estimation is a crucial application in navigation apps and web mapping services. Current deterministic and probabilistic methods primarily focus on modeling individual trips, assuming independence among trips. However, in real-world scenarios, we often observe strong inter-trip correlations due to factors such as weather conditions, traffic management, and road works. In this paper, we propose to model trip-level link travel time using a Gaussian hierarchical model, which can characterize both inter-trip and intra-trip correlations. The joint distribution of travel time of multiple trips becomes a multivariate Gaussian parameterized by learnable link representations. To effectively use the sparse GPS trajectories, we also propose a data augmentation method based on trip sub-sampling, which allows for fine-grained gradient backpropagation in learning link representations. During inference, we estimate the probability distribution of the travel time of a queried trip conditional on the completed trips that are spatiotemporally adjacent. We refer to the overall framework as ProbTTE. We evaluate ProbTTE on two real-world GPS trajectory datasets, and the results demonstrate its superior performance compared to state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic baselines. Additionally, we find that the learned link representations align well with the physical geometry of the network, making them suitable as input for other applications.
Trajectory computing is a pivotal domain encompassing trajectory data management and mining, garnering widespread attention due to its crucial role in various practical applications such as location services, urban traffic, and public safety. Traditional methods, focusing on simplistic spatio-temporal features, face challenges of complex calculations, limited scalability, and inadequate adaptability to real-world complexities. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the development and recent advances in deep learning for trajectory computing (DL4Traj). We first define trajectory data and provide a brief overview of widely-used deep learning models. Systematically, we explore deep learning applications in trajectory management (pre-processing, storage, analysis, and visualization) and mining (trajectory-related forecasting, trajectory-related recommendation, trajectory classification, travel time estimation, anomaly detection, and mobility generation). Notably, we encapsulate recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) that hold the potential to augment trajectory computing. Additionally, we summarize application scenarios, public datasets, and toolkits. Finally, we outline current challenges in DL4Traj research and propose future directions. Relevant papers and open-source resources have been collated and are continuously updated at: \href{https://github.com/yoshall/Awesome-Trajectory-Computing}{DL4Traj Repo}.
Vehicle movement is frequently captured in the form of GPS trajectories, i.e., sequences of timestamped GPS locations. Such data is widely used for various tasks such as travel-time estimation, trajectory recovery, and trajectory prediction. A universal vehicle trajectory model could be applied to different tasks, removing the need to maintain multiple specialized models, thereby reducing computational and storage costs. However, creating such a model is challenging when the integrity of trajectory features is compromised, i.e., in scenarios where only partial features are available or the trajectories are sparse. To address these challenges, we propose the Universal Vehicle Trajectory Model (UVTM), which can effectively adapt to different tasks without excessive retraining. UVTM incorporates two specialized designs. First, it divides trajectory features into three distinct domains. Each domain can be masked and generated independently to accommodate tasks with only partially available features. Second, UVTM is pre-trained by reconstructing dense, feature-complete trajectories from sparse, feature-incomplete counterparts, enabling strong performance even when the integrity of trajectory features is compromised. Experiments involving four representative trajectory-related tasks on three real-world vehicle trajectory datasets provide insight into the performance of UVTM and offer evidence that it is capable of meeting its objectives.
This paper leverages macroscopic models and multi-source spatiotemporal data collected from automatic traffic counters and probe vehicles to accurately estimate traffic flow and travel time in links where these measurements are unavailable. This problem is critical in transportation planning applications where the sensor coverage is low and the planned interventions have network-wide impacts. The proposed model, named the Macroscopic Traffic Estimator (MaTE), can perform network-wide estimations of traffic flow and travel time only using the set of observed measurements of these quantities. Because MaTE is grounded in macroscopic flow theory, all parameters and variables are interpretable. The estimated traffic flow satisfies fundamental flow conservation constraints and exhibits an increasing monotonic relationship with the estimated travel time. Using logit-based stochastic traffic assignment as the principle for routing flow behavior makes the model fully differentiable with respect to the model parameters. This property facilitates the application of computational graphs to learn parameters from vast amounts of spatiotemporal data. We also integrate neural networks and polynomial kernel functions to capture link flow interactions and enrich the mapping of traffic flows into travel times. MaTE also adds a destination choice model and a trip generation model that uses historical data on the number of trips generated by location. Experiments on synthetic data show that the model can accurately estimate travel time and traffic flow in out-of-sample links. Results obtained using real-world multi-source data from a large-scale transportation network suggest that MaTE outperforms data-driven benchmarks, especially in travel time estimation. The estimated parameters of MaTE are also informative about the hourly change in travel demand and supply characteristics of the transportation network.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have led to major breakthroughs in a variety of domains such as drug discovery, social network analysis, and travel time estimation. However, they lack interpretability which hinders human trust and thereby deployment to settings with high-stakes decisions. A line of interpretable methods approach this by discovering a small set of relevant concepts as subgraphs in the last GNN layer that together explain the prediction. This can yield oversimplified explanations, failing to explain the interaction between GNN layers. To address this oversight, we provide HELP (Hierarchical Explainable Latent Pooling), a novel, inherently interpretable graph pooling approach that reveals how concepts from different GNN layers compose to new ones in later steps. HELP is more than 1-WL expressive and is the first non-spectral, end-to-end-learnable, hierarchical graph pooling method that can learn to pool a variable number of arbitrary connected components. We empirically demonstrate that it performs on-par with standard GCNs and popular pooling methods in terms of accuracy while yielding explanations that are aligned with expert knowledge in the domains of chemistry and social networks. In addition to a qualitative analysis, we employ concept completeness scores as well as concept conformity, a novel metric to measure the noise in discovered concepts, quantitatively verifying that the discovered concepts are significantly easier to fully understand than those from previous work. Our work represents a first step towards an understanding of graph neural networks that goes beyond a set of concepts from the final layer and instead explains the complex interplay of concepts on different levels.
This paper introduces a new transformer-based model for the problem of travel time estimation. The key feature of the proposed GCT-TTE architecture is the utilization of different data modalities capturing different properties of an input path. Along with the extensive study regarding the model configuration, we implemented and evaluated a sufficient number of actual baselines for path-aware and path-blind settings. The conducted computational experiments have confirmed the viability of our pipeline, which outperformed state-of-the-art models on both considered datasets. Additionally, GCT-TTE was deployed as a web service accessible for further experiments with user-defined routes.
GPS trajectories are the essential foundations for many trajectory-based applications, such as travel time estimation, traffic prediction and trajectory similarity measurement. Most applications require a large amount of high sample rate trajectories to achieve a good performance. However, many real-life trajectories are collected with low sample rate due to energy concern or other constraints.We study the task of trajectory recovery in this paper as a means for increasing the sample rate of low sample trajectories. Currently, most existing works on trajectory recovery follow a sequence-to-sequence diagram, with an encoder to encode a trajectory and a decoder to recover real GPS points in the trajectory. However, these works ignore the topology of road network and only use grid information or raw GPS points as input. Therefore, the encoder model is not able to capture rich spatial information of the GPS points along the trajectory, making the prediction less accurate and lack spatial consistency. In this paper, we propose a road network enhanced transformer-based framework, namely RNTrajRec, for trajectory recovery. RNTrajRec first uses a graph model, namely GridGNN, to learn the embedding features of each road segment. It next develops a spatial-temporal transformer model, namely GPSFormer, to learn rich spatial and temporal features along with a Sub-Graph Generation module to capture the spatial features for each GPS point in the trajectory. It finally forwards the outputs of encoder model into a multi-task decoder model to recover the missing GPS points. Extensive experiments based on three large-scale real-life trajectory datasets confirm the effectiveness of our approach.
Short-term traffic forecasting is an extensively studied topic in the field of intelligent transportation system. However, most existing forecasting systems are limited by the requirement of real-time probe vehicle data because of their formulation as a time series forecasting problem. Towards this issue, the NeurIPS 2022 Traffic4cast challenge is dedicated to predicting the citywide traffic states with publicly available sparse loop count data. This technical report introduces our second-place winning solution to the extended challenge of ETA prediction. We present a similarity-based feature extraction method using multiple nearest neighbor (NN) filters. Similarity-based features, static features, node flow features and combined features of segments are extracted for training the gradient boosting decision tree model. Experimental results on three cities (including London, Madrid and Melbourne) demonstrate the strong predictive performance of our approach, which outperforms a number of graph-neural-network-based solutions in the task of travel time estimation. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/c-lyu/Traffic4Cast2022-TSE}.
Road network and trajectory representation learning are essential for traffic systems since the learned representation can be directly used in various downstream tasks (e.g., traffic speed inference, and travel time estimation). However, most existing methods only contrast within the same scale, i.e., treating road network and trajectory separately, which ignores valuable inter-relations. In this paper, we aim to propose a unified framework that jointly learns the road network and trajectory representations end-to-end. We design domain-specific augmentations for road-road contrast and trajectory-trajectory contrast separately, i.e., road segment with its contextual neighbors and trajectory with its detour replaced and dropped alternatives, respectively. On top of that, we further introduce the road-trajectory cross-scale contrast to bridge the two scales by maximizing the total mutual information. Unlike the existing cross-scale contrastive learning methods on graphs that only contrast a graph and its belonging nodes, the contrast between road segment and trajectory is elaborately tailored via novel positive sampling and adaptive weighting strategies. We conduct prudent experiments based on two real-world datasets with four downstream tasks, demonstrating improved performance and effectiveness. The code is available at https://github.com/mzy94/JCLRNT.
The problem of travel time estimation is widely considered as the fundamental challenge of modern logistics. The complex nature of interconnections between spatial aspects of roads and temporal dynamics of ground transport still preserves an area to experiment with. However, the total volume of currently accumulated data encourages the construction of the learning models which have the perspective to significantly outperform earlier solutions. In order to address the problems of travel time estimation, we propose a new method based on transformer architecture - TransTTE.
In step with the digitalization of transportation, we are witnessing a growing range of path-based smart-city applications, e.g., travel-time estimation and travel path ranking. A temporal path(TP) that includes temporal information, e.g., departure time, into the path is fundamental to enable such applications. In this setting, it is essential to learn generic temporal path representations(TPRs) that consider spatial and temporal correlations simultaneously and that can be used in different applications, i.e., downstream tasks. Existing methods fail to achieve the goal since (i) supervised methods require large amounts of task-specific labels when training and thus fail to generalize the obtained TPRs to other tasks; (ii) through unsupervised methods can learn generic representations, they disregard the temporal aspect, leading to sub-optimal results. To contend with the limitations of existing solutions, we propose a Weakly-Supervised Contrastive (WSC) learning model. We first propose a temporal path encoder that encodes both the spatial and temporal information of a temporal path into a TPR. To train the encoder, we introduce weak labels that are easy and inexpensive to obtain and are relevant to different tasks, e.g., temporal labels indicating peak vs. off-peak hours from departure times. Based on the weak labels, we construct meaningful positive and negative temporal path samples by considering both spatial and temporal information, which facilities training the encoder using contrastive learning by pulling closer to the positive samples' representations while pushing away the negative samples' representations. To better guide contrastive learning, we propose a learning strategy based on Curriculum Learning such that the learning performs from easy to hard training instances. Experiments studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Travel Time Estimation (TTE) is indispensable in intelligent transportation system (ITS). It is significant to achieve the fine-grained Trajectory-based Travel Time Estimation (TTTE) for multi-city scenarios, namely to accurately estimate travel time of the given trajectory for multiple city scenarios. However, it faces great challenges due to complex factors including dynamic temporal dependencies and fine-grained spatial dependencies. To tackle these challenges, we propose a meta learning based framework, MetaTTE, to continuously provide accurate travel time estimation over time by leveraging well-designed deep neural network model called DED, which consists of Data preprocessing module and Encoder-Decoder network module. By introducing meta learning techniques, the generalization ability of MetaTTE is enhanced using small amount of examples, which opens up new opportunities to increase the potential of achieving consistent performance on TTTE when traffic conditions and road networks change over time in the future. The DED model adopts an encoder-decoder network to capture fine-grained spatial and temporal representations. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets are conducted to confirm that our MetaTTE outperforms six state-of-art baselines, and improve 29.35% and 25.93% accuracy than the best baseline on Chengdu and Porto datasets, respectively.
Taxi arrival time prediction is essential for building intelligent transportation systems. Traditional prediction methods mainly rely on extracting features from traffic maps, which cannot model complex situations and nonlinear spatial and temporal relationships. Therefore, we propose Multi-View Spatial-Temporal Model (MVSTM) to capture the mutual dependence of spatial-temporal relations and trajectory features. Specifically, we use graph2vec to model the spatial view, dual-channel temporal module to model the trajectory view, and structural embedding to model traffic semantics. Experiments on large-scale taxi trajectory data have shown that our approach is more effective than the existing novel methods. The source code can be found at https://github.com/775269512/SIGSPATIAL-2021-GISCUP-4th-Solution.
Path representations are critical in a variety of transportation applications, such as estimating path ranking in path recommendation systems and estimating path travel time in navigation systems. Existing studies often learn task-specific path representations in a supervised manner, which require a large amount of labeled training data and generalize poorly to other tasks. We propose an unsupervised learning framework Path InfoMax (PIM) to learn generic path representations that work for different downstream tasks. We first propose a curriculum negative sampling method, for each input path, to generate a small amount of negative paths, by following the principles of curriculum learning. Next, \emph{PIM} employs mutual information maximization to learn path representations from both a global and a local view. In the global view, PIM distinguishes the representations of the input paths from those of the negative paths. In the local view, \emph{PIM} distinguishes the input path representations from the representations of the nodes that appear only in the negative paths. This enables the learned path representations to encode both global and local information at different scales. Extensive experiments on two downstream tasks, ranking score estimation and travel time estimation, using two road network datasets suggest that PIM significantly outperforms other unsupervised methods and is also able to be used as a pre-training method to enhance supervised path representation learning.