Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series prediction, their high computational complexity and memory requirements limit their practicality for real-time trading and long-sequence data processing. To address these challenges, we propose SAMBA, an innovative framework for stock return prediction that builds on the Mamba architecture and integrates graph neural networks. SAMBA achieves near-linear computational complexity by utilizing a bidirectional Mamba block to capture long-term dependencies in historical price data and employing adaptive graph convolution to model dependencies between daily stock features. Our experimental results demonstrate that SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models in prediction accuracy, maintaining low computational complexity. The code and datasets are available at github.com/Ali-Meh619/SAMBA.
Stock price prediction is a challenging problem in the field of finance and receives widespread attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of technologies such as deep learning and graph neural networks, more research methods have begun to focus on exploring the interrelationships between stocks. However, existing methods mostly focus on the short-term dynamic relationships of stocks and directly integrating relationship information with temporal information. They often overlook the complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics and potential higher-order interaction relationships among stocks in the stock market. Therefore, we propose a stock price trend prediction model named LSR-IGRU in this paper, which is based on long short-term stock relationships and an improved GRU input. Firstly, we construct a long short-term relationship matrix between stocks, where secondary industry information is employed for the first time to capture long-term relationships of stocks, and overnight price information is utilized to establish short-term relationships. Next, we improve the inputs of the GRU model at each step, enabling the model to more effectively integrate temporal information and long short-term relationship information, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of predicting stock trend changes. Finally, through extensive experiments on multiple datasets from stock markets in China and the United States, we validate the superiority of the proposed LSR-IGRU model over the current state-of-the-art baseline models. We also apply the proposed model to the algorithmic trading system of a financial company, achieving significantly higher cumulative portfolio returns compared to other baseline methods. Our sources are released at https://github.com/ZP1481616577/Baselines_LSR-IGRU.
There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.
Stock prices forecasting has always been a challenging task. Although many research projects try to address the problem, few of them pay attention to the varying degrees of dependencies between stock prices. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid model that improves the prediction of stock prices by emphasizing the dependencies between adjacent stock prices. The proposed model, ResNLS, is mainly composed of two neural architectures, ResNet and LSTM. ResNet serves as a feature extractor to identify dependencies between stock prices, while LSTM analyzes the initial time series data with the combination of dependencies, which are considered as residuals. Our experiment reveals that when the closing price data for the previous 5 consecutive trading days is used as input, the performance of the model (ResNLS-5) is optimal compared to those with other inputs. Furthermore, ResNLS-5 demonstrates at least a 20% improvement over current state-of-the-art baselines. To verify whether ResNLS-5 can help clients effectively avoid risks and earn profits in the stock market, we construct a quantitative trading framework for back testing. The result shows that the trading strategy based on ResNLS-5 predictions can successfully mitigate losses during declining stock prices and generate profits in periods of rising stock prices. The relevant code is publicly available on GitHub.
Time Series Classification (TSC) is essential in fields like medicine, environmental science, and finance, enabling tasks such as disease diagnosis, anomaly detection, and stock price analysis. While machine learning models like Recurrent Neural Networks and InceptionTime are successful in numerous applications, they can face scalability issues due to computational requirements. Recently, ROCKET has emerged as an efficient alternative, achieving state-of-the-art performance and simplifying training by utilizing a large number of randomly generated features from the time series data. However, many of these features are redundant or non-informative, increasing computational load and compromising generalization. Here we introduce Sequential Feature Detachment (SFD) to identify and prune non-essential features in ROCKET-based models, such as ROCKET, MiniRocket, and MultiRocket. SFD estimates feature importance using model coefficients and can handle large feature sets without complex hyperparameter tuning. Testing on the UCR archive shows that SFD can produce models with better test accuracy using only 10\% of the original features. We named these pruned models Detach-ROCKET. We also present an end-to-end procedure for determining an optimal balance between the number of features and model accuracy. On the largest binary UCR dataset, Detach-ROCKET improves test accuracy by 0.6\% while reducing features by 98.9\%. By enabling a significant reduction in model size without sacrificing accuracy, our methodology improves computational efficiency and contributes to model interpretability. We believe that Detach-ROCKET will be a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners working with time series data, who can find a user-friendly implementation of the model at \url{https://github.com/gon-uri/detach_rocket}.
Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility, allowing financial institutions to price and hedge derivatives, and banks to quantify the risk in their trading books. Additionally, most financial regulators also require a liquidity horizon of several days for institutional investors to exit their risky assets, in order to not materially affect market prices. However, the task of multi-step stock price prediction is challenging, given the highly stochastic nature of stock data. Current solutions to tackle this problem are mostly designed for single-step, classification-based predictions, and are limited to low representation expressiveness. The problem also gets progressively harder with the introduction of the target price sequence, which also contains stochastic noise and reduces generalizability at test-time. To tackle these issues, we combine a deep hierarchical variational-autoencoder (VAE) and diffusion probabilistic techniques to do seq2seq stock prediction through a stochastic generative process. The hierarchical VAE allows us to learn the complex and low-level latent variables for stock prediction, while the diffusion probabilistic model trains the predictor to handle stock price stochasticity by progressively adding random noise to the stock data. Our Diffusion-VAE (D-Va) model is shown to outperform state-of-the-art solutions in terms of its prediction accuracy and variance. More importantly, the multi-step outputs can also allow us to form a stock portfolio over the prediction length. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model outputs in the portfolio investment task through the Sharpe ratio metric and highlight the importance of dealing with different types of prediction uncertainties.
Although large language models (LLMs) has shown great performance on natural language processing (NLP) in the financial domain, there are no publicly available financial tailtored LLMs, instruction tuning datasets, and evaluation benchmarks, which is critical for continually pushing forward the open-source development of financial artificial intelligence (AI). This paper introduces PIXIU, a comprehensive framework including the first financial LLM based on fine-tuning LLaMA with instruction data, the first instruction data with 136K data samples to support the fine-tuning, and an evaluation benchmark with 5 tasks and 9 datasets. We first construct the large-scale multi-task instruction data considering a variety of financial tasks, financial document types, and financial data modalities. We then propose a financial LLM called FinMA by fine-tuning LLaMA with the constructed dataset to be able to follow instructions for various financial tasks. To support the evaluation of financial LLMs, we propose a standardized benchmark that covers a set of critical financial tasks, including five financial NLP tasks and one financial prediction task. With this benchmark, we conduct a detailed analysis of FinMA and several existing LLMs, uncovering their strengths and weaknesses in handling critical financial tasks. The model, datasets, benchmark, and experimental results are open-sourced to facilitate future research in financial AI.
Stock market forecasting is a classic problem that has been thoroughly investigated using machine learning and artificial neural network based tools and techniques. Interesting aspects of this problem include its time reliance as well as its volatility and other complex relationships. To combine them, hidden markov models (HMMs) have been utilized to anticipate the price of stocks. We demonstrated the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) HMM method for predicting stock prices for the next day based on previous data. An HMM is trained by analyzing the fractional change in the stock price as well as the intraday high and low values. It is then utilized to produce a MAP estimate across all possible stock prices for the next day. The approach demonstrated in our work is quite generalized and can be used to predict the stock price for any company, given that the HMM is trained on the dataset of that company's stocks dataset. We evaluated the accuracy of our models using some extensively used accuracy metrics for regression problems and came up with a satisfactory outcome.
Financial time series prediction, a growing research topic, has attracted considerable interest from scholars, and several approaches have been developed. Among them, decomposition-based methods have achieved promising results. Most decomposition-based methods approximate a single function, which is insufficient for obtaining accurate results. Moreover, most existing researches have concentrated on one-step-ahead forecasting that prevents stock market investors from arriving at the best decisions for the future. This study proposes two novel methods for multi-step-ahead stock price prediction based on the issues outlined. DCT-MFRFNN, a method based on discrete cosine transform (DCT) and multi-functional recurrent fuzzy neural network (MFRFNN), uses DCT to reduce fluctuations in the time series and simplify its structure and MFRFNN to predict the stock price. VMD-MFRFNN, an approach based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and MFRFNN, brings together their advantages. VMD-MFRFNN consists of two phases. The input signal is decomposed to several IMFs using VMD in the decomposition phase. In the prediction and reconstruction phase, each of the IMFs is given to a separate MFRFNN for prediction, and predicted signals are summed to reconstruct the output. Three financial time series, including Hang Seng Index (HSI), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), and Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX), are used for the evaluation of the proposed methods. Experimental results indicate that VMD-MFRFNN surpasses other state-of-the-art methods. VMD-MFRFNN, on average, shows 35.93%, 24.88%, and 34.59% decreases in RMSE from the second-best model for HSI, SSE, and SPX, respectively. Also, DCT-MFRFNN outperforms MFRFNN in all experiments.
Natural Language Processing(NLP) demonstrates a great potential to support financial decision-making by analyzing the text from social media or news outlets. In this work, we build a platform to study the NLP-aided stock auto-trading algorithms systematically. In contrast to the previous work, our platform is characterized by three features: (1) We provide financial news for each specific stock. (2) We provide various stock factors for each stock. (3) We evaluate performance from more financial-relevant metrics. Such a design allows us to develop and evaluate NLP-aided stock auto-trading algorithms in a more realistic setting. In addition to designing an evaluation platform and dataset collection, we also made a technical contribution by proposing a system to automatically learn a good feature representation from various input information. The key to our algorithm is a method called semantic role labeling Pooling (SRLP), which leverages Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) to create a compact representation of each news paragraph. Based on SRLP, we further incorporate other stock factors to make the final prediction. In addition, we propose a self-supervised learning strategy based on SRLP to enhance the out-of-distribution generalization performance of our system. Through our experimental study, we show that the proposed method achieves better performance and outperforms all the baselines' annualized rate of return as well as the maximum drawdown of the CSI300 index and XIN9 index on real trading. Our Astock dataset and code are available at https://github.com/JinanZou/Astock.
We summarized both common and novel predictive models used for stock price prediction and combined them with technical indices, fundamental characteristics and text-based sentiment data to predict S&P stock prices. A 66.18% accuracy in S&P 500 index directional prediction and 62.09% accuracy in individual stock directional prediction was achieved by combining different machine learning models such as Random Forest and LSTM together into state-of-the-art ensemble models. The data we use contains weekly historical prices, finance reports, and text information from news items associated with 518 different common stocks issued by current and former S&P 500 large-cap companies, from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2019. Our study's innovation includes utilizing deep language models to categorize and infer financial news item sentiment; fusing different models containing different combinations of variables and stocks to jointly make predictions; and overcoming the insufficient data problem for machine learning models in time series by using data across different stocks.
In this paper, we introduce an event-driven trading strategy that predicts stock movements by detecting corporate events from news articles. Unlike existing models that utilize textual features (e.g., bag-of-words) and sentiments to directly make stock predictions, we consider corporate events as the driving force behind stock movements and aim to profit from the temporary stock mispricing that may occur when corporate events take place. The core of the proposed strategy is a bi-level event detection model. The low-level event detector identifies events' existences from each token, while the high-level event detector incorporates the entire article's representation and the low-level detected results to discover events at the article-level. We also develop an elaborately-annotated dataset EDT for corporate event detection and news-based stock prediction benchmark. EDT includes 9721 news articles with token-level event labels as well as 303893 news articles with minute-level timestamps and comprehensive stock price labels. Experiments on EDT indicate that the proposed strategy outperforms all the baselines in winning rate, excess returns over the market, and the average return on each transaction.
Stock price prediction is important for value investments in the stock market. In particular, short-term prediction that exploits financial news articles is promising in recent years. In this paper, we propose a novel deep neural network DP-LSTM for stock price prediction, which incorporates the news articles as hidden information and integrates difference news sources through the differential privacy mechanism. First, based on the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), a sentiment-ARMA is formulated by taking into consideration the information of financial news articles in the model. Then, an LSTM-based deep neural network is designed, which consists of three components: LSTM, VADER model and differential privacy (DP) mechanism. The proposed DP-LSTM scheme can reduce prediction errors and increase the robustness. Extensive experiments on S&P 500 stocks show that (i) the proposed DP-LSTM achieves 0.32% improvement in mean MPA of prediction result, and (ii) for the prediction of the market index S&P 500, we achieve up to 65.79% improvement in MSE.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been extraordinarily successful for prediction with sequential data. To tackle highly variable and noisy real-world data, we introduce Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks (PF-RNNs), a new RNN family that explicitly models uncertainty in its internal structure: while an RNN relies on a long, deterministic latent state vector, a PF-RNN maintains a latent state distribution, approximated as a set of particles. For effective learning, we provide a fully differentiable particle filter algorithm that updates the PF-RNN latent state distribution according to the Bayes rule. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed PF-RNNs outperform the corresponding standard gated RNNs on a synthetic robot localization dataset and 10 real-world sequence prediction datasets for text classification, stock price prediction, etc.
Recurrent neural networks are a powerful means to cope with time series. We show how autoregressive linear, i.e., linearly activated recurrent neural networks (LRNNs) can approximate any time-dependent function f(t). The approximation can effectively be learned by simply solving a linear equation system; no backpropagation or similar methods are needed. Furthermore, and this is the main contribution of this article, the size of an LRNN can be reduced significantly in one step after inspecting the spectrum of the network transition matrix, i.e., its eigenvalues, by taking only the most relevant components. Therefore, in contrast to other approaches, we do not only learn network weights but also the network architecture. LRNNs have interesting properties: They end up in ellipse trajectories in the long run and allow the prediction of further values and compact representations of functions. We demonstrate this by several experiments, among them multiple superimposed oscillators (MSO), robotic soccer (RoboCup), and stock price prediction. LRNNs outperform the previous state-of-the-art for the MSO task with a minimal number of units.