Customer churn describes terminating a relationship with a business or reducing customer engagement over a specific period. Two main business marketing strategies play vital roles to increase market share dollar-value: gaining new and preserving existing customers. Customer acquisition cost can be five to six times that for customer retention, hence investing in customers with churn risk is smart. Causal analysis of the churn model can predict whether a customer will churn in the foreseeable future and assist enterprises to identify effects and possible causes for churn and subsequently use that knowledge to apply tailored incentives. This paper proposes a framework using a deep feedforward neural network for classification accompanied by a sequential pattern mining method on high-dimensional sparse data. We also propose a causal Bayesian network to predict cause probabilities that lead to customer churn. Evaluation metrics on test data confirm the XGBoost and our deep learning model outperformed previous techniques. Experimental analysis confirms that some independent causal variables representing the level of super guarantee contribution, account growth, and customer tenure were identified as confounding factors for customer churn with a high degree of belief. This paper provides a real-world customer churn analysis from current status inference to future directions in local superannuation funds.
High utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM) aims to mine all patterns that yield a high utility (profit) in a sequence dataset. HUSPM is useful for several applications such as market basket analysis, marketing, and website clickstream analysis. In these applications, users may also consider high utility patterns frequently appearing in the dataset to obtain more fruitful information. However, this task is high computation since algorithms may generate a combinatorial explosive number of candidates that may be redundant or of low importance. To reduce complexity and obtain a compact set of frequent high utility sequential patterns (FHUSPs), this paper proposes an algorithm named CHUSP for mining closed frequent high utility sequential patterns (CHUSPs). Such patterns keep a concise representation while preserving the same expressive power of the complete set of FHUSPs. The proposed algorithm relies on a CHUS data structure to maintain information during mining. It uses three pruning strategies to eliminate early low-utility and non-frequent patterns, thereby reducing the search space. An extensive experimental evaluation was performed on six real-life datasets to evaluate the performance of CHUSP in terms of execution time, memory usage, and the number of generated patterns. Experimental results show that CHUSP can efficiently discover the compact set of CHUSPs under different user-defined thresholds.
High-utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM) has emerged as an important topic due to its wide application and considerable popularity. However, due to the combinatorial explosion of the search space when the HUSPM problem encounters a low utility threshold or large-scale data, it may be time-consuming and memory-costly to address the HUSPM problem. Several algorithms have been proposed for addressing this problem, but they still cost a lot in terms of running time and memory usage. In this paper, to further solve this problem efficiently, we design a compact structure called sequence projection (seqPro) and propose an efficient algorithm, namely discovering high-utility sequential patterns with the seqPro structure (HUSP-SP). HUSP-SP utilizes the compact seq-array to store the necessary information in a sequence database. The seqPro structure is designed to efficiently calculate candidate patterns' utilities and upper bound values. Furthermore, a new upper bound on utility, namely tighter reduced sequence utility (TRSU) and two pruning strategies in search space, are utilized to improve the mining performance of HUSP-SP. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-life datasets show that HUSP-SP can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of running time, memory usage, search space pruning efficiency, and scalability.
In this paper, we propose a novel pipeline that leverages language foundation models for temporal sequential pattern mining, such as for human mobility forecasting tasks. For example, in the task of predicting Place-of-Interest (POI) customer flows, typically the number of visits is extracted from historical logs, and only the numerical data are used to predict visitor flows. In this research, we perform the forecasting task directly on the natural language input that includes all kinds of information such as numerical values and contextual semantic information. Specific prompts are introduced to transform numerical temporal sequences into sentences so that existing language models can be directly applied. We design an AuxMobLCast pipeline for predicting the number of visitors in each POI, integrating an auxiliary POI category classification task with the encoder-decoder architecture. This research provides empirical evidence of the effectiveness of the proposed AuxMobLCast pipeline to discover sequential patterns in mobility forecasting tasks. The results, evaluated on three real-world datasets, demonstrate that pre-trained language foundation models also have good performance in forecasting temporal sequences. This study could provide visionary insights and lead to new research directions for predicting human mobility.
This paper develops a memory-efficient approach for Sequential Pattern Mining (SPM), a fundamental topic in knowledge discovery that faces a well-known memory bottleneck for large data sets. Our methodology involves a novel hybrid trie data structure that exploits recurring patterns to compactly store the data set in memory; and a corresponding mining algorithm designed to effectively extract patterns from this compact representation. Numerical results on small to medium-sized real-life test instances show an average improvement of 85% in memory consumption and 49% in computation time compared to the state of the art. For large data sets, our algorithm stands out as the only capable SPM approach within 256GB of system memory, potentially saving 1.7TB in memory consumption.
Given a set of sequences comprised of time-ordered events, sequential pattern mining is useful to identify frequent subsequences from different sequences or within the same sequence. However, in sport, these techniques cannot determine the importance of particular patterns of play to good or bad outcomes, which is often of greater interest to coaches and performance analysts. In this study, we apply a recently proposed supervised sequential pattern mining algorithm called safe pattern pruning (SPP) to 490 labelled event sequences representing passages of play from one rugby team's matches from the 2018 Japan Top League. We compare the SPP-obtained patterns that are the most discriminative between scoring and non-scoring outcomes from both the team's and opposition teams' perspectives, with the most frequent patterns obtained with well-known unsupervised sequential pattern mining algorithms when applied to subsets of the original dataset, split on the label. Our obtained results found that linebreaks, successful lineouts, regained kicks in play, repeated phase-breakdown play, and failed exit plays by the opposition team were identified as as the patterns that discriminated most between the team scoring and not scoring. Opposition team linebreaks, errors made by the team, opposition team lineouts, and repeated phase-breakdown play by the opposition team were identified as the patterns that discriminated most between the opposition team scoring and not scoring. It was also found that, by virtue of its supervised nature as well as its pruning and safe-screening properties, SPP obtained a greater variety of generally more sophisticated patterns than the unsupervised models, which are likely to be of more utility to coaches and performance analysts.
Adverse drug-drug interactions (DDIs) remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Identifying potential DDIs during the drug design process is critical for patients and society. Although several computational models have been proposed for DDI prediction, there are still limitations: (1) specialized design of drug representation for DDI predictions is lacking; (2) predictions are based on limited labelled data and do not generalize well to unseen drugs or DDIs; and (3) models are characterized by a large number of parameters, thus are hard to interpret. In this work, we develop a ChemicAl SubstrucTurE Representation (CASTER) framework that predicts DDIs given chemical structures of drugs.CASTER aims to mitigate these limitations via (1) a sequential pattern mining module rooted in the DDI mechanism to efficiently characterize functional sub-structures of drugs; (2) an auto-encoding module that leverages both labelled and unlabelled chemical structure data to improve predictive accuracy and generalizability; and (3) a dictionary learning module that explains the prediction via a small set of coefficients which measure the relevance of each input sub-structures to the DDI outcome. We evaluated CASTER on two real-world DDI datasets and showed that it performed better than state-of-the-art baselines and provided interpretable predictions.
Constrained sequential pattern mining aims at identifying frequent patterns on a sequential database of items while observing constraints defined over the item attributes. We introduce novel techniques for constraint-based sequential pattern mining that rely on a multi-valued decision diagram representation of the database. Specifically, our representation can accommodate multiple item attributes and various constraint types, including a number of non-monotone constraints. To evaluate the applicability of our approach, we develop an MDD-based prefix-projection algorithm and compare its performance against a typical generate-and-check variant, as well as a state-of-the-art constraint-based sequential pattern mining algorithm. Results show that our approach is competitive with or superior to these other methods in terms of scalability and efficiency.
Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, which allows us to search for the most compressing set of patterns without designing a specific encoding scheme. Our proposed algorithm is able to efficiently mine the most relevant sequential patterns and rank them using an associated measure of interestingness. The efficient inference in our model is a direct result of our use of a structural expectation-maximization framework, in which the expectation-step takes the form of a submodular optimization problem subject to a coverage constraint. We show on both synthetic and real world datasets that our model mines a set of sequential patterns with low spuriousness and redundancy, high interpretability and usefulness in real-world applications. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the quality of the patterns from our approach is comparable to, if not better than, existing state of the art sequential pattern mining algorithms.