To better understand current trends of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, high-quality spatiotemporal population estimates are necessary. While the joint use of remote sensing and deep learning has achieved promising results for population distribution estimation, most of the current work focuses on fine-scale spatial predictions derived from single date census, thereby neglecting temporal analyses. In this work, we focus on evaluating how deep learning change detection techniques can unravel temporal population dynamics at short intervals. Since Post-Classification Comparison (PCC) methods for change detection are known to propagate the error of the individual maps, we propose an end-to-end population growth mapping method. Specifically, a ResNet encoder, pretrained on a population mapping task with Sentinel-2 MSI data, was incorporated into a Siamese network. The Siamese network was trained at the census level to accurately predict population change. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in Kigali, Rwanda, for the time period 2016-2020, using bi-temporal Sentinel-2 data. Compared to PCC, the Siamese network greatly reduced errors in population change predictions at the census level. These results show promise for future remote sensing-based population growth mapping endeavors.
Fine-grained population maps are needed in several domains, like urban planning, environmental monitoring, public health, and humanitarian operations. Unfortunately, in many countries only aggregate census counts over large spatial units are collected, moreover, these are not always up-to-date. We present POMELO, a deep learning model that employs coarse census counts and open geodata to estimate fine-grained population maps with 100m ground sampling distance. Moreover, the model can also estimate population numbers when no census counts at all are available, by generalizing across countries. In a series of experiments for several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the maps produced with POMELOare in good agreement with the most detailed available reference counts: disaggregation of coarse census counts reaches R2 values of 85-89%; unconstrained prediction in the absence of any counts reaches 48-69%.
Fine-grained population distribution data is of great importance for many applications, e.g., urban planning, traffic scheduling, epidemic modeling, and risk control. However, due to the limitations of data collection, including infrastructure density, user privacy, and business security, such fine-grained data is hard to collect and usually, only coarse-grained data is available. Thus, obtaining fine-grained population distribution from coarse-grained distribution becomes an important problem. To tackle this problem, existing methods mainly rely on sufficient fine-grained ground truth for training, which is not often available for the majority of cities. That limits the applications of these methods and brings the necessity to transfer knowledge between data-sufficient source cities to data-scarce target cities. In knowledge transfer scenario, we employ single reference fine-grained ground truth in target city, which is easy to obtain via remote sensing or questionnaire, as the ground truth to inform the large-scale urban structure and support the knowledge transfer in target city. By this approach, we transform the fine-grained population mapping problem into a one-shot transfer learning problem. In this paper, we propose a novel one-shot transfer learning framework PSRNet to transfer spatial-temporal knowledge across cities from the view of network structure, the view of data, and the view of optimization. Experiments on real-life datasets of 4 cities demonstrate that PSRNet has significant advantages over 8 state-of-the-art baselines by reducing RMSE and MAE by more than 25%. Our code and datasets are released in Github (https://github.com/erzhuoshao/PSRNet-CIKM).