Counterfactual image generation presents significant challenges, including preserving identity, maintaining perceptual quality, and ensuring faithfulness to an underlying causal model. While existing auto-encoding frameworks admit semantic latent spaces which can be manipulated for causal control, they struggle with scalability and fidelity. Advancements in diffusion models present opportunities for improving counterfactual image editing, having demonstrated state-of-the-art visual quality, human-aligned perception and representation learning capabilities. Here, we present a suite of diffusion-based causal mechanisms, introducing the notions of spatial, semantic and dynamic abduction. We propose a general framework that integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through the lens of Pearlian causality to edit images via a counterfactual reasoning process. To our knowledge, this is the first work to consider high-level semantic identity preservation for diffusion counterfactuals and to demonstrate how semantic control enables principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.
Large-scale neural language models (LMs) exhibit remarkable performance in in-context learning: the ability to learn and reason the input context on the fly without parameter update. This work studies in-context counterfactual reasoning in language models, that is, to predict the consequences of changes under hypothetical scenarios. We focus on studying a well-defined synthetic setup: a linear regression task that requires noise abduction, where accurate prediction is based on inferring and copying the contextual noise from factual observations. We show that language models are capable of counterfactual reasoning in this controlled setup and provide insights that counterfactual reasoning for a broad class of functions can be reduced to a transformation on in-context observations; we find self-attention, model depth, and data diversity in pre-training drive performance in Transformers. More interestingly, our findings extend beyond regression tasks and show that Transformers can perform noise abduction on sequential data, providing preliminary evidence on the potential for counterfactual story generation. Our code is available under https://github.com/moXmiller/counterfactual-reasoning.git .
Causal world models are systems that can answer counterfactual questions about an environment of interest, i.e. predict how it would have evolved if an arbitrary subset of events had been realized differently. It requires understanding the underlying causes behind chains of events and conducting causal inference for arbitrary unseen distributions. So far, this task eludes foundation models, notably large language models (LLMs), which do not have demonstrated causal reasoning capabilities beyond the memorization of existing causal relationships. Furthermore, evaluating counterfactuals in real-world applications is challenging since only the factual world is observed, limiting evaluation to synthetic datasets. We address these problems by explicitly extracting and modeling causal relationships and propose the Causal Cartographer framework. First, we introduce a graph retrieval-augmented generation agent tasked to retrieve causal relationships from data. This approach allows us to construct a large network of real-world causal relationships that can serve as a repository of causal knowledge and build real-world counterfactuals. In addition, we create a counterfactual reasoning agent constrained by causal relationships to perform reliable step-by-step causal inference. We show that our approach can extract causal knowledge and improve the robustness of LLMs for causal reasoning tasks while reducing inference costs and spurious correlations.
Decision Transformers (DT) play a crucial role in modern reinforcement learning, leveraging offline datasets to achieve impressive results across various domains. However, DT requires high-quality, comprehensive data to perform optimally. In real-world applications, the lack of training data and the scarcity of optimal behaviours make training on offline datasets challenging, as suboptimal data can hinder performance. To address this, we propose the Counterfactual Reasoning Decision Transformer (CRDT), a novel framework inspired by counterfactual reasoning. CRDT enhances DT ability to reason beyond known data by generating and utilizing counterfactual experiences, enabling improved decision-making in unseen scenarios. Experiments across Atari and D4RL benchmarks, including scenarios with limited data and altered dynamics, demonstrate that CRDT outperforms conventional DT approaches. Additionally, reasoning counterfactually allows the DT agent to obtain stitching abilities, combining suboptimal trajectories, without architectural modifications. These results highlight the potential of counterfactual reasoning to enhance reinforcement learning agents' performance and generalization capabilities.
This paper investigates $\sim_{\mathcal{L}_3}$-identifiability, a form of complete counterfactual identifiability within the Pearl Causal Hierarchy (PCH) framework, ensuring that all Structural Causal Models (SCMs) satisfying the given assumptions provide consistent answers to all causal questions. To simplify this problem, we introduce exogenous isomorphism and propose $\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}$-identifiability, reflecting the strength of model identifiability required for $\sim_{\mathcal{L}_3}$-identifiability. We explore sufficient assumptions for achieving $\sim_{\mathrm{EI}}$-identifiability in two special classes of SCMs: Bijective SCMs (BSCMs), based on counterfactual transport, and Triangular Monotonic SCMs (TM-SCMs), which extend $\sim_{\mathcal{L}_2}$-identifiability. Our results unify and generalize existing theories, providing theoretical guarantees for practical applications. Finally, we leverage neural TM-SCMs to address the consistency problem in counterfactual reasoning, with experiments validating both the effectiveness of our method and the correctness of the theory.
Fairness studies of algorithmic decision-making systems often simplify complex decision processes, such as bail or loan approvals, into binary classification tasks. However, these approaches overlook that such decisions are not inherently binary (e.g., approve or not approve bail or loan); they also involve non-binary treatment decisions (e.g., bail conditions or loan terms) that can influence the downstream outcomes (e.g., loan repayment or reoffending). In this paper, we argue that non-binary treatment decisions are integral to the decision process and controlled by decision-makers and, therefore, should be central to fairness analyses in algorithmic decision-making. We propose a causal framework that extends fairness analyses and explicitly distinguishes between decision-subjects' covariates and the treatment decisions. This specification allows decision-makers to use our framework to (i) measure treatment disparity and its downstream effects in historical data and, using counterfactual reasoning, (ii) mitigate the impact of past unfair treatment decisions when automating decision-making. We use our framework to empirically analyze four widely used loan approval datasets to reveal potential disparity in non-binary treatment decisions and their discriminatory impact on outcomes, highlighting the need to incorporate treatment decisions in fairness assessments. Moreover, by intervening in treatment decisions, we show that our framework effectively mitigates treatment discrimination from historical data to ensure fair risk score estimation and (non-binary) decision-making processes that benefit all stakeholders.
LLMs are often claimed to be capable of Natural Language Inference (NLI), which is widely regarded as a cornerstone of more complex forms of reasoning. However, recent works show that LLMs still suffer from hallucinations in NLI due to attestation bias, where LLMs overly rely on propositional memory to build shortcuts. To solve the issue, we design an unsupervised framework to construct counterfactual reasoning data and fine-tune LLMs to reduce attestation bias. To measure bias reduction, we build bias-adversarial variants of NLI datasets with randomly replaced predicates in premises while keeping hypotheses unchanged. Extensive evaluations show that our framework can significantly reduce hallucinations from attestation bias. Then, we further evaluate LLMs fine-tuned with our framework on original NLI datasets and their bias-neutralized versions, where original entities are replaced with randomly sampled ones. Extensive results show that our framework consistently improves inferential performance on both original and bias-neutralized NLI datasets.
Conditional generation models for longitudinal sequences can generate new or modified trajectories given a conditioning input. While effective at generating entire sequences, these models typically lack control over the timing and scope of the edits. Most existing approaches either operate on univariate sequences or assume that the condition affects all variables and time steps. However, many scientific and clinical applications require more precise interventions, where a condition takes effect only after a specific time and influences only a subset of variables. We introduce CLEF, a controllable sequence editing model for conditional generation of immediate and delayed effects in multivariate longitudinal sequences. CLEF learns temporal concepts that encode how and when a condition alters future sequence evolution. These concepts allow CLEF to apply targeted edits to the affected time steps and variables while preserving the rest of the sequence. We evaluate CLEF on 6 datasets spanning cellular reprogramming and patient health trajectories, comparing against 9 state-of-the-art baselines. CLEF improves immediate sequence editing accuracy by up to 36.01% (MAE). Unlike prior models, CLEF enables one-step conditional generation at arbitrary future times, outperforming them in delayed sequence editing by up to 65.71% (MAE). We test CLEF under counterfactual inference assumptions and show up to 63.19% (MAE) improvement on zero-shot conditional generation of counterfactual trajectories. In a case study of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, CLEF identifies clinical interventions that generate realistic counterfactual trajectories shifted toward healthier outcomes.
The lack of occlusion data in commonly used action recognition video datasets limits model robustness and impedes sustained performance improvements. We construct OccludeNet, a large-scale occluded video dataset that includes both real-world and synthetic occlusion scene videos under various natural environments. OccludeNet features dynamic tracking occlusion, static scene occlusion, and multi-view interactive occlusion, addressing existing gaps in data. Our analysis reveals that occlusion impacts action classes differently, with actions involving low scene relevance and partial body visibility experiencing greater accuracy degradation. To overcome the limitations of current occlusion-focused approaches, we propose a structural causal model for occluded scenes and introduce the Causal Action Recognition (CAR) framework, which employs backdoor adjustment and counterfactual reasoning. This framework enhances key actor information, improving model robustness to occlusion. We anticipate that the challenges posed by OccludeNet will stimulate further exploration of causal relations in occlusion scenarios and encourage a reevaluation of class correlations, ultimately promoting sustainable performance improvements. The code and full dataset will be released soon.
Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to \emph{intervene} on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as a structural equation model using the Gumbel-max trick, which we called Gumbel counterfactual generation. This reformulation allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems increasingly influence decision-making across various fields, the need to attribute responsibility for undesirable outcomes has become essential, though complicated by the complex interplay between humans and AI. Existing attribution methods based on actual causality and Shapley values tend to disproportionately blame agents who contribute more to an outcome and rely on real-world measures of blameworthiness that may misalign with responsible AI standards. This paper presents a causal framework using Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to systematically attribute responsibility in human-AI systems, measuring overall blameworthiness while employing counterfactual reasoning to account for agents' expected epistemic levels. Two case studies illustrate the framework's adaptability in diverse human-AI collaboration scenarios.
Deep learning has led to tremendous success in many real-world applications of computer vision, thanks to sophisticated architectures such as Convolutional neural networks (CNNs). However, CNNs have been shown to be vulnerable to crafted adversarial perturbations in inputs. These inputs appear almost indistinguishable from natural images, yet they are incorrectly classified by CNN architectures. This vulnerability of adversarial examples has led researchers to focus on enhancing the robustness of deep learning models in general, and CNNs in particular, by creating defense and detection methods to distinguish adversarials inputs from natural ones. In this paper, we address the adversarial robustness of CNNs through causal reasoning. We propose CausAdv: a causal framework for detecting adversarial examples based on counterfactual reasoning. CausAdv learns causal and non-causal features of every input, and quantifies the counterfactual information (CI) of every filter of the last convolutional layer. Then we perform statistical analysis on the filters CI of every sample, whether clan or adversarials, to demonstrate how adversarial examples indeed exhibit different CI distributions compared to clean samples. Our results show that causal reasoning enhances the process of adversarials detection without the need to train a separate detector. In addition, we illustrate the efficiency of causal explanations as a helpful detection technique through visualizing the causal features. The results can be reproduced using the code available in the repository: https://github.com/HichemDebbi/CausAdv.
In text classification tasks, models often rely on spurious correlations for predictions, incorrectly associating irrelevant features with the target labels. This issue limits the robustness and generalization of models, especially when faced with out-of-distribution data where such spurious correlations no longer hold. To address this challenge, we propose the Causally Calibrated Robust Classifier (CCR), which aims to reduce models' reliance on spurious correlations and improve model robustness. Our approach integrates a causal feature selection method based on counterfactual reasoning, along with an unbiased inverse propensity weighting (IPW) loss function. By focusing on selecting causal features, we ensure that the model relies less on spurious features during prediction. We theoretically justify our approach and empirically show that CCR achieves state-of-the-art performance among methods without group labels, and in some cases, it can compete with the models that utilize group labels.
Recent advancements in recommender systems have focused on leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve user preference modeling, yielding promising outcomes. However, current LLM-based approaches struggle to fully leverage user behavior sequences, resulting in suboptimal preference modeling for personalized recommendations. In this study, we propose a novel Counterfactual Fine-Tuning (CFT) method to address this issue by explicitly emphasizing the role of behavior sequences when generating recommendations. Specifically, we employ counterfactual reasoning to identify the causal effects of behavior sequences on model output and introduce a task that directly fits the ground-truth labels based on these effects, achieving the goal of explicit emphasis. Additionally, we develop a token-level weighting mechanism to adjust the emphasis strength for different item tokens, reflecting the diminishing influence of behavior sequences from earlier to later tokens during predicting an item. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CFT effectively improves behavior sequence modeling. Our codes are available at https://github.com/itsmeyjt/CFT.
Visual counterfactual explanations (VCEs) have recently gained immense popularity as a tool for clarifying the decision-making process of image classifiers. This trend is largely motivated by what these explanations promise to deliver -- indicate semantically meaningful factors that change the classifier's decision. However, we argue that current state-of-the-art approaches lack a crucial component -- the region constraint -- whose absence prevents from drawing explicit conclusions, and may even lead to faulty reasoning due to phenomenons like confirmation bias. To address the issue of previous methods, which modify images in a very entangled and widely dispersed manner, we propose region-constrained VCEs (RVCEs), which assume that only a predefined image region can be modified to influence the model's prediction. To effectively sample from this subclass of VCEs, we propose Region-Constrained Counterfactual Schr\"odinger Bridges (RCSB), an adaptation of a tractable subclass of Schr\"odinger Bridges to the problem of conditional inpainting, where the conditioning signal originates from the classifier of interest. In addition to setting a new state-of-the-art by a large margin, we extend RCSB to allow for exact counterfactual reasoning, where the predefined region contains only the factor of interest, and incorporating the user to actively interact with the RVCE by predefining the regions manually.
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have emerged as a central focus in both industry and academia, but often suffer from biases introduced by visual and language priors, which can lead to multimodal hallucination. These biases arise from the visual encoder and the Large Language Model (LLM) backbone, affecting the attention mechanism responsible for aligning multimodal inputs. Existing decoding-based mitigation methods focus on statistical correlations and overlook the causal relationships between attention mechanisms and model output, limiting their effectiveness in addressing these biases. To tackle this issue, we propose a causal inference framework termed CausalMM that applies structural causal modeling to MLLMs, treating modality priors as a confounder between attention mechanisms and output. Specifically, by employing backdoor adjustment and counterfactual reasoning at both the visual and language attention levels, our method mitigates the negative effects of modality priors and enhances the alignment of MLLM's inputs and outputs, with a maximum score improvement of 65.3% on 6 VLind-Bench indicators and 164 points on MME Benchmark compared to conventional methods. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach while being a plug-and-play solution. Our code is available at: https://github.com/The-Martyr/CausalMM
Predicting cellular responses to various perturbations is a critical focus in drug discovery and personalized therapeutics, with deep learning models playing a significant role in this endeavor. Single-cell datasets contain technical artifacts that may hinder the predictability of such models, which poses quality control issues highly regarded in this area. To address this, we propose CRADLE-VAE, a causal generative framework tailored for single-cell gene perturbation modeling, enhanced with counterfactual reasoning-based artifact disentanglement. Throughout training, CRADLE-VAE models the underlying latent distribution of technical artifacts and perturbation effects present in single-cell datasets. It employs counterfactual reasoning to effectively disentangle such artifacts by modulating the latent basal spaces and learns robust features for generating cellular response data with improved quality. Experimental results demonstrate that this approach improves not only treatment effect estimation performance but also generative quality as well. The CRADLE-VAE codebase is publicly available at https://github.com/dmis-lab/CRADLE-VAE.
As machine learning becomes increasingly integral to autonomous decision-making processes involving human interaction, the necessity of comprehending the model's outputs through conversational means increases. Most recently, foundation models are being explored for their potential as post hoc explainers, providing a pathway to elucidate the decision-making mechanisms of predictive models. In this work, we introduce traceable question-answering, leveraging an external knowledge repository to inform the responses of Large Language Models (LLMs) to user queries within a scene understanding task. This knowledge repository comprises contextual details regarding the model's output, containing high-level features, feature importance, and alternative probabilities. We employ subtractive counterfactual reasoning to compute feature importance, a method that entails analysing output variations resulting from decomposing semantic features. Furthermore, to maintain a seamless conversational flow, we integrate four key characteristics - social, causal, selective, and contrastive - drawn from social science research on human explanations into a single-shot prompt, guiding the response generation process. Our evaluation demonstrates that explanations generated by the LLMs encompassed these elements, indicating its potential to bridge the gap between complex model outputs and natural language expressions.
This paper introduces MalAlgoQA, a novel dataset designed to evaluate the counterfactual reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) through a pedagogical approach. The dataset comprises mathematics and reading comprehension questions, each accompanied by four answer choices and their corresponding rationales. At the heart of MalAlgoQA are ``malgorithms'' - rationales behind incorrect answer choices that represent flawed yet logically coherent reasoning paths. These malgorithms serve as counterfactual scenarios, allowing us to assess an LLM's ability to identify and analyze flawed reasoning patterns. We propose the Malgorithm Identification task, where LLMs are assessed based on their ability to identify corresponding malgorithm given an incorrect answer choice. To evaluate the model performance, we introduce two metrics: Algorithm Identification Accuracy (AIA) for correct answer rationale identification, and Malgorithm Identification Accuracy (MIA) for incorrect answer rationale identification. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs exhibit significant performance drops in MIA compared to AIA, highlighting the challenges in counterfactual reasoning. Surprisingly, we find that the chain-of-thought prompting technique not only fails to consistently enhance MIA but can sometimes lead to underperformance compared to simple prompting. These findings have important implications for developing LLMs with improved counterfactual reasoning, particularly relevant for AI-powered tutoring systems, where identifying and addressing student misconceptions is essential. MalAlgoQA dataset is available \href{https://github.com/luffycodes/MalAlgoQA-Dataset}{here}.
Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this work, we introduce the problem of counterfactual reasoning in the context of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. We also formulate the inference of a causal model as a joint regression task where for inference we use both data with and without interventions. After learning the model, we exploit linearity of the VAR model to make exact predictions about the effects of counterfactual interventions. Furthermore, we quantify the total causal effects of past counterfactual interventions. The source code for this project is freely available at https://github.com/KurtButler/counterfactual_interventions.