A novel stacking framework based on hybrid of gradient boosting-adaptive boosting-multilayer perceptron for crash injury severity prediction and analysis

원문 초록

Crash injury severity prediction is a promising area of interest in traffic safety and management. Recently, machine learning approaches are becoming popular due to their ability to enhance the prediction performance through the bias-variance trade-off-technique. However, some of these methods are criticized to perform like a ‘black box’ approach while predicting and analyzing crash injury severity and produce low accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel stacking framework based on a hybrid of Gradient Boosting (GB), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) to predict accurately crash injury severity. On the traffic collision dataset provided by the Seattle City Department of Transportation from 2004 to 2021, the proposed model has demonstrated superior performance when compared with the base models. Furthermore, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) is used to interpret the contribution of every feature on model performance and provide recommendations to responsible authorities.