Common-DAG Support from Targeted Covariance Changes under Confounding

원문 초록

Targeted covariance changes couple structural rows through a common directed acyclic graph. We study the graph support determined by these experiments when structural errors may be correlated. A positive-gap four-node family has a shortcut identified by common acyclicity. A response indegree of at most two additionally gives unique complete support and two compatible coefficient matrices. The same experiments admit a stable feedback model with the shortcut absent. The result extends to connected graphs with repeated branching and merging. Finite response-column alternatives yield exact bounded-parent compatibility decisions through Horn propagation and partial-target completion. Certified ancestry then supplies an observed-ancestor covariance restriction. Gaussian regression and Fieller inversion reduce inference to a scalar confidence set, and quadratic elimination retains the shared nuisance coefficients with finite-sample edge-error control. In 2048 Gaussian conditions, the scalar procedure reports 127/128 positive edges at gap 1/4 and 524288 observations per cell. Its decisions agree with the joint outer-polynomial reference on the same inputs in all 2022 qualified conditions, with zero reports in 512 null conditions. Exact 16-, 32- and 64-node evaluations verify support and target-coverage conclusions. A root-target characterization connects the identifying information to intervention design.