The Posterior-Prior Epistemic Gap: When World Model Imagination Fails to Carry Task-Relevant Signals

원문 초록

Model-based planners that roll out imagined futures assume the transition model faithfully propagates task-relevant signals---a property rarely measured directly. In a single-seed case study of a Recurrent State Space Model world model with active-inference planning in the CARLA driving simulator, we identify a \textbf{posterior-prior gap}---posterior (observation-filtered) states retain obstacle information that imagined rollout states progressively lose: a supervised obstacle probe achieves AUC 0.85 on posterior states, but the same probe applied to imagined prior states shows monotonic decay (AUC 0.85$\rightarrow$0.71 over 15 steps; logit separation drops 57\%). Because the probe is identical, the decay isolates the transition model---not the representation---as the information bottleneck. Obstacle avoidance drops to 0\% without privileged runtime coordinates, and the planner's own ensemble-based epistemic term does not flag the loss---ensemble disagreement yields AUC 0.52 as an obstacle classifier (chance level), making the failure an unflagged imagination failure---an unknown unknown at planning time. As a secondary contribution, we show that \textbf{task-conditioned weighting of Effective Free Energy components} over the same world model yields lane keeping ($81.2 \pm 1.8$\% route completion) and obstacle avoidance (28/28 avoided, \emph{using privileged coordinates}) in the CARLA simulator, with runtime weight modulation enabling post-evasion centering.